Explosive New Hernandez Details

DaBruinz said:

You don't know much about police investigations, do you?

They ALWAYS question the people who were last seen with the victim. And they always search the homes of those people to rule them out as suspects.

Yes. Life is more mundane than the movies. It's why there is as much possibility that Hernandez had nothing to do with Lloyd's murder as him having everything to do with it.

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So what happened? Let's try to work out the most realistic best case scenario for AH, one that does not involve the victim stealing a car and winding up dead when he stops to help a person change their tire who was really Henry Portrait of a Serial Killer.

All four guys go out. They go back to AH's place. The other three leave in his rental car to go somewhere. Then two of them come back and crash on his coach. And AH goes to sleep none the wiser of the crime committed?

KontradictioN said:

They've actually been pretty refreshing as compared to some of the other ones we have had here over the years. I haven't seen one instance of trolling.

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We are not like the JETS fans. Can't stand them..

tombonneau said:

Tried & true. I hope for his sake he can pull it off and I can delude myself into rooting for him like Ravens fans did.

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Just imagine what kind of stories the media would cash in on with bible thumping jeebotards if Hernandez pulled it off while Tebow is here.

"Tebow helps guide current NFL teammate and former college teammate to salvation and away from his demons!"

tombonneau said:

I never said I know, I'm just assuming what I deem to be the most logical and probable outcome. I'd love to believe in your above scenario, but I'd rather accept what appears to be the most likely outcome now and then be relieved by "good news" than try to deny what is likely to happen and then be further bummed out when that scenario plays out.

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Tom - The Guilt By Association logical fallacy is, without a doubt, the most dangerous type of red herring there is and while I understand the need to assume that dots can be connected, evidentiary material is the only aspect of this situation that counts when it comes to establishing probable cause to felonious acts of crime.

This is basic pre-law stuff and I can tell you that in cases like this - the use of the car, the number of people that were in the car before and after leaving Boston, the mileage distance from Aaron's house, or anything else that has been publicly reported so far is not evidence and frankly will never be evidence.

In my view, this situation is going to boil down to forensic evidence, their travel path from Boston to North Attleborough, the video surveillance and what is discoverable on that video surveillance, and the cell phone pings and phone calls/text messages for all involved.

As of right now, we are not even sure who any of these guys encountered when they were in Boston and if it is connected in any way, shape or form.

Those cell phone pings for each individuals' cell phone and the video surveillance data at Aaron's house, in my opinion, is the detail that is very relevant in this case if Aaron was involved.

Steve:Section 102 said:

Are you a cop? do you know what is being discussed in the investigation, or merely what is reported by the media? I can tell you I have no idea what the police are discussing. What the media disseminates regarding the subject is irrelevant.

Based on the reports, does it look bad? You bet. But what if behind closed doors, AH has told the cops "i know who did it, and I want to discuss it with my laywer before i talk to you guys. I have an appointment at 1:30pm on Thursday, I'll meet with you guys after." The cops then report "he's not cooperating in the investigation" because he hasn't told them what they want to know NOW. The bottom line is we don't know all the facts yet.

It's all speculative conjecture. Everyone needs to breathe and see what happens. The season doesn't start this Sunday.

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I admit I don't know what's happening. I admit I am just speculating, based on the things I hear and read in various media outlets, both official reports and unconfirmed rumors. And I will say this:

There is no doubt in my mind an arrest of Hernandez is forthcoming. I am not going to argue the semantics of a word like "imminent" but what little hope I had a couple days ago that he was uninvolved has now dwindled to nil.

I hope I'm wrong. I'm hope I'm eating my words for Thanksgiving dinner. I'm just giving my speculation on what I feel is clearly going to happen.

Rob0729 said:

All this arrest rumors could be to pressure him into cooperating since he has so much to lose if he is arrested even if he is never convicted of a single thing. So he could decide to be more cooperative with the police and they never bring charges.

If the police don't think he was an active participant in the murder, they could give him a free pass for being there (assuming he was there) if he cooperates with the police.

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I thought the SI story was suspicious using an anonymous source to say that Hernandez was likely to be arrested, too. New England Patriots' Aaron Hernandez likely to be arrested - NFL - SI.com

The police do not call ahead, nor do they float the idea of an arrest. This is a homicide investigation. I doubt Hernandez is wanted for the homicide. If the police think they have enough evidence to get a murderer off the street, they won't waist time messing around with the media.They gather enough evidence to get the guy off the street, and show up wherever the perpetrator is known to be.

If the police think he's obstructing justice and withholding evidence or information, they might play a media card to get Hernandez and his hot shot lawyers to recalculate their strategy. In this case, there are myriad channels to get word to Hernandez that he'd be better off coming clean than concealing something.

Right now, it looks like Hernandez is a very important witness in a homicide.

tombonneau said:

It's clear. He's going to be arrested. If this wasn't such a high profile case it would have already happened. But given the public scrutiny the police are dotting all i's and crossing all t's.

What is your realistic scenario in which he is not arrested? I'm not being confrontational, I'd seriously like to hear a silver lining scenario here because I'm having trouble finding one.

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Haven't a clue. But speculating based on what we know is pretty much useless.

BradyFTW! said:

Just a shot in the dark, but he could, just maybe, be going to work. Really out there, I know.

I'm sure that Belichick is eager to have a word with the guy.

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Belichek would be crazy to speak with him. Then the cops will ask the Patriots what he said ....... stay out of it. OTOH, maybe the Patriot lawyers could speak to him.

JackBauer said:

Haven't a clue. But speculating based on what we know is pretty much useless.

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So what's the point of this thread then?

tombonneau said:

It's clear. He's going to be arrested. If this wasn't such a high profile case it would have already happened. But given the public scrutiny the police are dotting all i's and crossing all t's.

What is your realistic scenario in which he is not arrested? I'm not being confrontational, I'd seriously like to hear a silver lining scenario here because I'm having trouble finding one.

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The only thing that is clear is that nothing is clear. And pretending otherwise is foolish. Unless of course you know something the media and police don't know.

What seperates a wise man from a fool? Wise man knows what he doesn't know.

Rob0729 said:

All this arrest rumors could be to pressure him into cooperating since he has so much to lose if he is arrested even if he is never convicted of a single thing. So he could decide to be more cooperative with the police and they never bring charges.

If the police don't think he was an active participant in the murder, they could give him a free pass for being there (assuming he was there) if he cooperates with the police.

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The DA signs off on immunity deals not the police.

Aßßynormal said:

Belichek would be crazy to speak with him. Then the cops will ask the Patriots what he said ....... stay out of it. OTOH, maybe the Patriot lawyers could speak to him.

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I am sure that he probably checked into work with employer and that was the brunt of it.

JackBauer said:

Haven't a clue. But speculating based on what we know is pretty much useless.

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LOL, newsflash, Jack, everything everyone has and ever will write on this messageboard is pretty much useless.

goheels22002 said:

The police do not call ahead, nor do they float the idea of an arrest.

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Leaks happen all the time and in all parts of public life. If they're planning to arrest him, how many people would know about it? A dozen? Maybe more? So it's not hard to believe one of those guys has a friend in the media and gives a little heads-up up front.

How many people had the Boston bombers totally wrong? The NY Post had a photo of a high school kid on their cover. The kid went to his local police and they were confused, they called the state police and they said that no one was looking for him.

That case was under a real time constraint too as they would have struck again.

Remember the CNN had reliable police sources saying that they had the bombers and were brining them to the Moakley courthouse? The media staked that out. This was a couple of months ago and the folks here should know better.

tombonneau said:

LOL, newsflash, Jack, everything everyone has and ever will write on this messageboard is pretty much useless.

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Not really. But claiming that this will ineluctably end poorly and that Hernandez must be guilty of something is useless, I'd agree with that.

Dr Pain said:

How many people had the Boston bombers totally wrong? The NY Post had a photo of a high school kid on their cover. The kid went to his local police and they were confused, they called the state police and they said that no one was looking for him.

That case was under a real time constraint too as they would have struck again.

Remember the CNN had reliable police sources saying that they had the bombers and were brining them to the Moakley courthouse? The media staked that out. This was a couple of months ago and the folks here should know better.

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The difference is that in that case there weren't tens of thousands of erroneous posts on this site about who did it and how close they were to being caught..............................

tombonneau said:

So what happened? Let's try to work out the most realistic best case scenario for AH, one that does not involve the victim stealing a car and winding up dead when he stops to help a person change their tire who was really Henry Portrait of a Serial Killer.

All four guys go out. They go back to AH's place. The other three leave in his rental car to go somewhere. Then two of them come back and crash on his coach. And AH goes to sleep none the wiser of the crime committed?

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What kind of rental car was it? Was it a Suburban or a Chrysler 300?? We have differing reports.

If Ahern crashed after the got back and the other 3 went out without him, then how would Ahern know one way or the other?

All I see from you is worthless speculation without any fact to even remotely support it.

As I pointed out last night, we already have conflicting reports on several items:

1) The Rental car that the police were looking for... Is it a Suburban or a Chrysler 300?

2) The text message... One report says it was sent when they were on the way home from the club. Another says that it was sent when they left.. But it doesn't say left from where.. Left from Ahern's house to go out? Left from the Club? Left from the Industrial Park?

3) Who saw them leave where? Reports claim that there were 4 in the car when they left and only 3 when they got to Ahern's house.. But reports cite only a single source.. Was it one of the other two men?

4) Forensic evidence puts Hernandez as driving the car, at some point. Forensic evidence also puts the car in the Industrial park. There has been no definitive statement that Ahern was the one who drove the car to the Industrial Park.. But people here are making that assumption. For all we know, the car was also driven by Lloyd and the other two at some point.

tombonneau said:

The reality of the situation is pretty clear. You can cling to semantics like "imminent" to call the media liars who exaggerate and know one knows what is going to happen, but you are re-arranging deck chairs on the Titanic.

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You must have inside sources to make this claim. Since you've got those sources, perhaps you could give us the results of:

Fingerprint checks/tests
Ballistics tests
Parrafin tests
Clothes/DNA tests
Reenactment results
Test on cars
Precise contents of box removed from AHern's home yesterday
Decision to charge AHern as co-conspirator, shooter, felony-murder accomplice, or accessory after the fact
Any and all questioning/confessions and plea agreements

Ivan said:

The difference is that in that case there weren't tens of thousands of erroneous posts on this site about who did it and how close they were to being caught..............................

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Can't tell if you are being sarcastic with this or not..