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Yes, even Mike Reiss can't defend or explain BB's draft reaches


So you think Reiss, who picks as if he's never heard of college football, is some kind of draft guru?
 
This the the perfect example of when a site successfully transitions from being the best football blog on the internet to a clown car.

<honk>, <honk>

Your commentary on the site is ten times more hilarious, given that you've been banned from here and have had to sneak back on. :rofl:

Despite his really creepy fixation on male hip fluidity

Actually, hip fluidity is a great measurement for a safety that, as you said yourself, has to play in open space. It's a great guage of their coverage abilities.

it's also an excellent example of why ex-football players do a generally poor job of analysis.

Now it all makes sense. You've never played football before.


Let's take a look at your realities...

A) As Urban Meyer proved, Belichick will gravitate toward drafting players from programs where the coach has a freindship/collaboration.

Name me one ex-Gator that was as big of a reach as Harmon was.

B) Greg Schiano, while at Rutgers was a very close friend/collaborator. Schiano has stated on numerous occasions that his program was modeled after the Patriots

That's cool. His ex-starting safety was graded as a 7th rounder at the earliest. I would have loved to have had him there. I don't see any reason so far that suggests we couldn't have had him there outside of "BRO U DON'T KNOW OTHA TEAMS DRAFT BOARDS", a statement which completely ignores that the person that said it doesn't know them either. Further, if we missed out on him and couldn't have had him there, would it really have been such a huge loss? Didn't think so.

c) The Patriots have already drafted Rutgers players.

Aye. All going pretty much where they were supposed to, or a little earlier. Not 4+ rounds earlier.

d) Safety was identified as an area of need.

Indeed it was. The Patriots chose to trade out of positions where it would have netted them prospects with high level experience, such as the SEC, then chose to reach multiple rounds for one that didn't get invited to the combine. They did much the same last season, and the result was two play action bombs, a blown assignment, and a loss. But that's only to date.

e) A great indicator of success is success in a similar program. Success can translate easier than from a completely different program.

This is completely untrue. If it were, the Patriots would be selecting only players out of Alabama, since that's the only true "similar" program in college football. I'm honestly beginning to wonder if you even watch college football. Tell me, pfip, what outside of Belichick and Schiano's friendship makes the two programs similar?

So we have a coach with a history of selecting players from collaborative programs and he selects a position of need from a collaborative program that's modeled after his program AND...........SOME ARE STUNNED.

You're still lost. People are stunned because he probably could have waited to go safety again and instead spent a day two selection either bulking up the DL or selecting a pass rusher with relative high value instead of reaching for Harmon. They could have instead taken the chance that Harmon would be there later, making it a great value pick.

This player is taken in the third round BUT he was projected to go in the sixth round; yet some people are stunned despite the fact that.......the Patriots didn't have a fifth or sixth round pick.

No, but they could have traded back into it if they liked him that much. Especially since, barring the apocalypse, there will be another draft again next year where the Patriots also have more picks.

Yet some are stunned that the Patriots drafted a player with the exact qualities they wanted and that would no doubt escape the notice of pundits because the pundits don't look for those qualities.

You're still lost. Very few people actually have a problem with the player himself. What people have a problem with is where he was taken vs. where the team probably could have gotten him. It's a really simple concept.

Can you imagine if Belichick listened to this in 2010 when drafting TE's?

I'm not sure how the TE's are at all relevant to this conversation or Reiss' article. Both were selected with very good value. The Harmon pick was not. For a coach whose draft style is supposedly all about value, this one pick in an otherwise solid draft looks like a head scratcher.

EDIT: At this point, I'm going to learn my lesson from before and ignore you as you offer very little quality football commentary. I'll continue my discussion on this matter with those that do.
 
This thread really needs to be closed. There is nothing new to be said. Dozens of people have have made the case that Harmon was not as much of a reach at the end of the 3rd round as it originally seemed, just not well known, And Kontra has stated his opinion, and restated it, and restated it.

Nothing more really needs to be said on this topic, and Kontra needs to do something productive at work, or he's going to be fired (hopefully he's the boss) ;)
 
This thread really needs to be closed. There is nothing new to be said. Dozens of people have have made the case that Harmon was not as much of a reach at the end of the 3rd round as it originally seemed, just not well known, And Kontra has stated his opinion, and restated it, and restated it.

Nothing more really needs to be said on this topic, and Kontra needs to do something productive at work, or he's going to be fired (hopefully he's the boss) ;)

The beauty of all of those years of education and all of the money spent is just that, Ken. That, and I'm a lightning-quick typer. :cool:
 
Thanks for posting this. I'm not a draftnik at all but am fascinated by these discussions. I think most of you have done a real good job making your cases on both sides.

Here's my question: if Harmon turns out to be James Sanders 2.0 would you think they got good value? I liked Sanders here, in spite of his evident limitations. He was a good "glue guy" that helped calm things down for guys with more talent but a lot less consistency. I may be out to lunch but I think of Harmon as being in that mold.

IMO, if we get a Sanders-caliber player out of Harmon, then he was worth the late third round pick. Personally, I'm holding out hope that he'll be better. As much as I liked Sanders, he was severely limited by his lack of speed, and while Harmon lags behind Sanders in some measurables (shuttle being the most significant), he does have significantly more speed than Sanders ever did. I always thought that part of the reason why Sanders took such bad angles at times was because he was trying to compensate for how slow he was, so if Harmon ends up being "Sanders-with-a-4.5-40" then that's a guy who can credibly start in the NFL.
 
Actually, hip fluidity is a great measurement for a safety that, as you said yourself, has to play in open space. It's a great guage of their coverage abilities.

For anyone who claims otherwise, I wonder how they'd feel if the discussion was reframed as saying that McCourty's so good in part because of his hip fluidity.
 
I was certainly shocked when the Pats took Harmon. I know its like beating a dead horse but there was alot of good value on the board when we took him. Let's hope he pans out.

BB must see something in him and he probably views Harmon, T Wilson and Mccourty as his trio of safeties going forward. Hopefully Harmon is a guy that can cover a bit and hit.
 
Yes, the patriots could have reached a bit and picked any of the following: Boyce, Buchanan or Beuharnais.

I was certainly shocked when the Pats took Harmon. I know its like beating a dead horse but there was alot of good value on the board when we took him. Let's hope he pans out.

BB must see something in him and he probably views Harmon, T Wilson and Mccourty as his trio of safeties going forward. Hopefully Harmon is a guy that can cover a bit and hit.
 
The key to all of this discussion is the opportunity cost of selecting Harmon at #91. People are assuming there were relatively equal assets available at #91 that could have been added in addition to Harmon. But what if that just weren't the case?

There are only 2 uses for a draft pick...select a play or trade it. Clearly the Pats tried to trade #91 since it was the only pick I saw after day 1 to use every second of allotted time. So put that aside for this exercise.

Consider this situation if:
1) Belichick wanted to exit this draft with a safety and another WR
2) Belichick was either disinterested or averse to selecting other positions (outside of ST/depth guys)
3) Belichick only had Harmon left on his safety list and still had a number of similar WRs left on his board.

In this case, the opportunity cost for selecting Harmon is close to 0 because Belichick placed such little value on the alternatives. Nobody knows the actual situation but this seems more likely than a) Belichick didn't understand the opportunity cost or b) He intentionally disregarded the opportunity cost to the point where the team was negatively impacted.

So I can understand the complaint that Belichick just didn't want Jesse Williams or some other player. I don't get the reasoning that Belichick wanted Jesse Williams and Harmon but because of stupidity or arrogance, he flushed Williams by selecting Harmon too early. A more thoughtful argument could be made that Belichick could have used #59 on a higher ranked safety like TJ McDonald and then picked 2 WRs with #91 and #102. Don't know the safety and WR board that Belichick was looking at around pick #57, but at least this contention has Belichick misreading the draft a bit and not accusing him of selecting a player at a stupid time for idiotic reasons.
 
And you're doing... what, exactly... by assuming that they wouldn't? Either way, my two examples have been productive professionals with one being injury plagued the last couple of years. Prior to that, he was looking fine as a pro.
Either way, you still are making assumptions as to whether or not they'd be successful with the Patriots. I'm not making any assumptions. I don't pretend to know the future. That is the difference.


There you go. Start making it personal.

That isn't making it personal. Making it personal would be calling you names or talking about your family. How can anyone have a reasonable conversation with you when you don't understand the difference between making something personal and characterizing your actions?

I actually didn't make mention of Meriweather until my last post. Even then, I can pull you posts from prior to 2011 talking about how bad of an idea it was to let him go.

Chung is a bust. In year three, he was benched because he was god awful in coverage. Now he's no longer on the team. So, let's rewind that..

1. Benched for being a liability in coverage.

2. No longer with the team.

Is that a bust? I'd say so.[/quote]

You say that, but it doesn't help that your facts are wrong. Chung wasn't benched in year 3. Chung missed 8 games due to injury in year 3. It was year 4 that he was demoted to back-up for 4 games and missed 4 due to injury.

Just because a player isn't re-signed to the team doesn't make them a "BUST". Especially when we've established that your facts are wrong..


I don't claim to know what they would have been in the Pats system. That's a manifestation on your part. My contention is that they've been more successful pros, with one being one of the better young safeties in the league. They were available, but instead the team whiffed on the likes of Wheatley (who already had an injury history) and Wilhite. I'm sorry that it hurts your feelings so much to hear that the team's DB drafts from 2008 to 2011 can be ranked as a small disaster, but that is the case.

Really? You don't claim to know what they would have been in the Pats system? Then why harp on the selections? OH I know. Because, in reality, you DO believe they'd have been just as successful in the Pats system as they are in their current systems.

It doesn't hurt my feelings at all. You clearly are the one who has hurt feelings since you keep claiming that I make things personal, when the opposite it true.


Huh?? Let's do the timeline for a second, Biff...

1. I asked patsfaninpittsburgh/cleveland to compare Harmon's measurables to a guy like Bacarri's.

2. He responded with some weak personal insult.

And now I fail miserably at the comparison, when I'm the one that asked specifically how the two stack up to each other? In what world does this make sense?

You brought Rambo up in response to me as well. And others pointed out how their "measurables" stack up against one another. You ignored it. That's how you failed with your comparison.

Again, I'm not seeing how any of these names are relevent. I could just as easily turn around and show you how accurately these people usually predict a crap shoot of a draft round by round and be just as correct about it.

No, actually, you couldn't be "just as correct" about it. Why? Because the rate at which they get things right is actually a lot lower than you believe. In fact, it's lower than 50% on the players who actually do things in the NFL.


It's even worse, then. The team probably should have realized that there was a good chance that Harmon would end up in the later rounds. Again, I can go safety by safety drafted after Harmon. Each either went right where they were projected to go or not too long after. And, again, if they missed out on Harmon, so what? He's not exactly a "can't miss" prospect.

How could it be even WORSE? You continue to make no sense at all. You hold pundits who have a horrible track record of predicting what players will do in the NFL to being gospel as to what value is and then you slam the team that has a better track record than the people you hold as gospel for how they evaluate their board with ridiculous comments based on nothing at all.

Please, go Safety by Safety for every one drafted after Harmon and explain how Harmon would have been around in the 7th round. Make sure that you include how those players did in their interviews with the Patriots. How they did with their game film reviews and what intangibles stood out in the interviews..

BTW, Baccari Rambo was predicted to be a 3rd rounder. Robert Lester was a 1st rounder last year and 4th rounder going into this draft.

As for whether or not they missed out on Harmon, it's funny that you are saying "So what" since you were lambasting the Patriots for drafting him where they did.
 
A couple of things here...

Either way, you still are making assumptions as to whether or not they'd be successful with the Patriots. I'm not making any assumptions. I don't pretend to know the future. That is the difference.

It's a safer bet to assume that a guy who has been a productive pro since being drafted would be a better fit here than a guy who ended up being a bust. If you use the "well, you wouldn't know how they would do in the Pats system", argument here, then you might as well be leery of all draft picks and free agents, since you can't presume to know how any of them would do.

That isn't making it personal. Making it personal would be calling you names or talking about your family. How can anyone have a reasonable conversation with you when you don't understand the difference between making something personal and characterizing your actions?

Sure it was. That you weren't able to pick up on it isn't surprising. That's why the majority of debates you take part in turn into pissing contests.

You say that, but it doesn't help that your facts are wrong. Chung wasn't benched in year 3.

Math error on my part. You'll note that I stated several times that he was benched "in his last year with the team". But at least you can admit that he was benched.

Chung missed 8 games due to injury in year 3. It was year 4 that he was demoted to back-up for 4 games and missed 4 due to injury.

Just because a player isn't re-signed to the team doesn't make them a "BUST". Especially when we've established that your facts are wrong..

Sure it does. Chung was drafted with what was pretty much a low first rounder with hopes of being the team's leading safety going forward. There were threads on this forum comparing the guy to Chuck Norris and Rodney Harrison, FFS. Given what he was drafted for and what he produced, he was a bust. And you're really reaching here.

Really? You don't claim to know what they would have been in the Pats system? Then why harp on the selections? OH I know. Because, in reality, you DO believe they'd have been just as successful in the Pats system as they are in their current systems.

No, that's not it at all. Those guys proved to be successful pros. Terrence Wheatley did not. Big difference.

You brought Rambo up in response to me as well. And others pointed out how their "measurables" stack up against one another. You ignored it. That's how you failed with your comparison.

Can you quote this?

No, actually, you couldn't be "just as correct" about it. Why? Because the rate at which they get things right is actually a lot lower than you believe. In fact, it's lower than 50% on the players who actually do things in the NFL.

I made no mention of this whatsoever. So congratulations on getting my response about as wrong is it could possibly get. I suppose I should tell you again that what I'm talking about is how they project players vs. where the players actually go. They're usually about as close as you can get for the crap shoot that they're projecting. But you'll probably just ignore this as well because, well, you're grasping at straws.

How could it be even WORSE? You continue to make no sense at all. You hold pundits who have a horrible track record of predicting what players will do in the NFL to being gospel as to what value is and then you slam the team that has a better track record than the people you hold as gospel for how they evaluate their board with ridiculous comments based on nothing at all.

You're even more lost on this one than pfip. I've said nothing about what I think Harmon will do in the NFL outside of the fact that he projects to be McCourty's back-up. What I did say is that if the team was doing the evaluation, then what you stated made it even worse, since they should have considered that there was a very large possibility he would have been there later.

As for whether or not they missed out on Harmon, it's funny that you are saying "So what" since you were lambasting the Patriots for drafting him where they did.

This makes absolutely no sense whatsoever.
 
Was just watching the latest Patriots All Access. There was a least one team who wanted to trade up to 91 with them but they opted to stay put. That could mean that they really love Harmon or it could be that they trade offer was underwhelming or perhaps somewhere in the middle. It seems clear from the video, however, that they did have at least one other option.
 
Another interesting question would be when Reiss worked in an NFL draft war-room, for any team.

Oh that's right, he doesn't do talent evaluation for a living.

He writes stuff about the Pats for a living (and if you ask me, he's been pretty good at that.)

Sooo, it would seem that his opinion's not very important on this subject.

Lookit: not only don't the sports press know what their own "team" is going to do, they don't know what the other ones are going to do. And guess what? Most of 'em don't tell the writers what they're planning on.

"Reach" is synonymous with "diversion from conventional wisdom according to sportswriters."

But sportswriters like to pretend that it means what they say it means, that you could have had a pick later. But that definition is dependent on the sportswriter in question having knowledge of alternate futures, perhaps through a many-worlds interpretation of quantum physics in which they and only they are able to alternate timelines.

It strikes me that a team that does better than most in the draft, but is always, without exception, divergent from the sportswriters' beliefs on what they "should" do, just have a different draft value assigned from that assigned by the sportswriters.

If it is only the Pats who surprise sportswriters, then I suppose they're right... nobody else would pick the guys, they'd all go undrafted, etc. But other teams surprise them too. In any given instance, you gotta figure the pats are thinking their guy might be gone by the next pick... so I'm figuring the Pats would suck if they're always wrong when they "reach." However, they'd be a good team if some of their "reaches" panned out. Which one are they?

Good article on the main board breaking down the Pats' drafts since 2000... Reiss should check it out.

PFnV
 
Gentleman, at this time I am done with my work day. I look forward to seeing the many replies tomorrow when I come in. I will have my coffee and address every single one of you then. It's been fun. :eek:

Im sure your boss will be thrilled
 
Im sure your boss will be thrilled

Luckily it only takes me 4-5 minutes max to type out a reply. The vast majority of my posting has been done during work days. I like to enjoy my life outside of work, which means very little time on here. Not the same for you?
 
The key to all of this discussion is the opportunity cost of selecting Harmon at #91. People are assuming there were relatively equal assets available at #91 that could have been added in addition to Harmon. But what if that just weren't the case?

I think that this is the MAIN point being ignored. The Pats tried to trade out of their late 3rd round pick (91) but either didn't get any offers or didn't get any offers worth passing on whom they felt was the best player left on their board until their next pick at 102.

Whether or not people outside the organization know who Harmon is or feel he is worth a 7th rounder is irrelevant.

You're still lost. People are stunned because he probably could have waited to go safety again and instead spent a day two selection either bulking up the DL or selecting a pass rusher with relative high value instead of reaching for Harmon. They could have instead taken the chance that Harmon would be there later, making it a great value pick.

And this is where your argument falls apart. You are making the ASSUMPTION that Harmon would have been there later. But how much later? And what were the Pats offered to move back? Did they feel that they could have taken Harmon at that offer?

The FACT is that you don't know the OFFER if any. And you don't know Harmon would have been taken before the Pats got to pick again, you're just grasping at straws. If I needed my fortune told, I'd go to Miss Cleo, but even she can't predict the NFL draft with any degree of accuracy. :p
 
A couple of things here...



It's a safer bet to assume that a guy who has been a productive pro since being drafted would be a better fit here than a guy who ended up being a bust. If you use the "well, you wouldn't know how they would do in the Pats system", argument here, then you might as well be leery of all draft picks and free agents, since you can't presume to know how any of them would do.

Again, those are assumptions. A "bet" is still an assumption. A guess as to what is going to happen.

Sure it was. That you weren't able to pick up on it isn't surprising. That's why the majority of debates you take part in turn into pissing contests.

No, it wasn't. That is why more people than myself have issues with you. You don't know what it means to make something personal. Plain and simple. It's why your claims about the debates I'm in are total BS. You just say it because you think you know what you are talking about and you don't.



Math error on my part. You'll note that I stated several times that he was benched "in his last year with the team". But at least you can admit that he was benched.

Yep.. that's why he started 8 of 12 games he was available for the Pats. 6 before his injury and 2 at the end of the season. BTW, to BENCH someone means that they don't get to play at all. A demotion is just that. That he still sees playing time. Hope you understand the difference now.


Sure it does. Chung was drafted with what was pretty much a low first rounder with hopes of being the team's leading safety going forward. There were threads on this forum comparing the guy to Chuck Norris and Rodney Harrison, FFS. Given what he was drafted for and what he produced, he was a bust. And you're really reaching here.

No, it doesn't. The problem you seem to be having is that you aren't capable of seeing anything beyond "Bust" or "Multi-Contract starter". There are many different levels in there. And that is why you are the one reaching with your garbage claims that he was a bust. You pointing out what there were threads on about him doesn't mean a damn thing. That's a great red herring there. He was drafted to be a football player with the hopes he'd be a starter. He was a starter for more than 2 years, whether you want to admit it or not. He started all of 2010. He started the 8 games he wasn't injured in 2011. And he started 8 of 12 games he played in 2012. By definition, that can't make him a bust.

No, that's not it at all. Those guys proved to be successful pros. Terrence Wheatley did not. Big difference.

Who said anything about Terrence Wheatly?? I didn't. So, who is making things up now? OH. You are.. As you've been doing in this entire thread. Because, you can't accept the fact that there is more than just Bust or Success when it comes to a draft pick. And just because someone doesn't live up to over-hyped expectations doesn't make him a bust.



Can you quote this?

I've quoted you before. Go back and read.



I made no mention of this whatsoever. So congratulations on getting my response about as wrong is it could possibly get. I suppose I should tell you again that what I'm talking about is how they project players vs. where the players actually go. They're usually about as close as you can get for the crap shoot that they're projecting. But you'll probably just ignore this as well because, well, you're grasping at straws.

Yes you did. And that is the problem. You are saying things then making claims that you didn't. Fact is that these "draft" experts you hold in such high esteem actually SUCK. Plain and simple. Whether it's predicting where the players actually go or projecting what they actually do in the NFL.

I'm not the one grasping at straws making claims that just aren't true. That has been you with your claims of what is a bust and what isn't.



You're even more lost on this one than pfip. I've said nothing about what I think Harmon will do in the NFL outside of the fact that he projects to be McCourty's back-up. What I did say is that if the team was doing the evaluation, then what you stated made it even worse, since they should have considered that there was a very large possibility he would have been there later.

And you claim I'm the one that is lost? You can't even respond to what is written. I made no mention of Harmon in what you quoted. I DID focus on what you said though. And you are the one who continues to not understand that what other teams thinks has no bearing on how the Patriots do their scouting reports and assign grades. Those grades are what determine the value to the team.

What I stated actually doesn't support your erroneous claim that there would be a very large possibility that Harmon would be there later. Quite the opposite. Being that there are 6 other teams that don't use Blesto and National and the fact that the Patriots do their own scouting and probably know the other 6 scouts, they probably have a good idea that Harmon was rated higher by those 6 teams than by Blesto and National. Which means that there was a 6/31 chance that another team could take Harmon between their 3rd and 7th picks.
 
Kontra -

You keep going on and on about how all the draft pundits seem to be so successful at guessing what round guys should go in and, for that, you hold their opinions in high esteem.

My question to you is this. Does it truly matter what round a guy goes in? If the round a player goes is doesn't matter, then why should it matter where the pundits believe a guy should be drafted?
 
Luckily it only takes me 4-5 minutes max to type out a reply. The vast majority of my posting has been done during work days. I like to enjoy my life outside of work, which means very little time on here. Not the same for you?

I work when I am at work. I don't get my coffee and start replying to message boards. I do non-work things on non-work times. To each his own.
 
Goof Off Time at Work, so I'm reviewing this Thread from the Top!! :D

This is the same Mike Reiss...who has said, time and again, that he's horrible at talent evaluation when it comes to the Patriots.

Has he actually said that? If so, he moves up a step in my Evaluation. :cool:

I've always thought that he was a reliable Reporter, but a pretty useless Analyst...But I'd have to give'm Props if he actually has the Self Confidence to say so!!

MansGotToKnowHisLimitations_26.jpg
 


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