vyrago
In the Starting Line-Up
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<honk>, <honk>
Despite his really creepy fixation on male hip fluidity
it's also an excellent example of why ex-football players do a generally poor job of analysis.
Reality
A) As Urban Meyer proved, Belichick will gravitate toward drafting players from programs where the coach has a freindship/collaboration.
B) Greg Schiano, while at Rutgers was a very close friend/collaborator. Schiano has stated on numerous occasions that his program was modeled after the Patriots
c) The Patriots have already drafted Rutgers players.
d) Safety was identified as an area of need.
e) A great indicator of success is success in a similar program. Success can translate easier than from a completely different program.
So we have a coach with a history of selecting players from collaborative programs and he selects a position of need from a collaborative program that's modeled after his program AND...........SOME ARE STUNNED.
This player is taken in the third round BUT he was projected to go in the sixth round; yet some people are stunned despite the fact that.......the Patriots didn't have a fifth or sixth round pick.
Yet some are stunned that the Patriots drafted a player with the exact qualities they wanted and that would no doubt escape the notice of pundits because the pundits don't look for those qualities.
Can you imagine if Belichick listened to this in 2010 when drafting TE's?
This thread really needs to be closed. There is nothing new to be said. Dozens of people have have made the case that Harmon was not as much of a reach at the end of the 3rd round as it originally seemed, just not well known, And Kontra has stated his opinion, and restated it, and restated it.
Nothing more really needs to be said on this topic, and Kontra needs to do something productive at work, or he's going to be fired (hopefully he's the boss)
Thanks for posting this. I'm not a draftnik at all but am fascinated by these discussions. I think most of you have done a real good job making your cases on both sides.
Here's my question: if Harmon turns out to be James Sanders 2.0 would you think they got good value? I liked Sanders here, in spite of his evident limitations. He was a good "glue guy" that helped calm things down for guys with more talent but a lot less consistency. I may be out to lunch but I think of Harmon as being in that mold.
Actually, hip fluidity is a great measurement for a safety that, as you said yourself, has to play in open space. It's a great guage of their coverage abilities.
I was certainly shocked when the Pats took Harmon. I know its like beating a dead horse but there was alot of good value on the board when we took him. Let's hope he pans out.
BB must see something in him and he probably views Harmon, T Wilson and Mccourty as his trio of safeties going forward. Hopefully Harmon is a guy that can cover a bit and hit.
Either way, you still are making assumptions as to whether or not they'd be successful with the Patriots. I'm not making any assumptions. I don't pretend to know the future. That is the difference.And you're doing... what, exactly... by assuming that they wouldn't? Either way, my two examples have been productive professionals with one being injury plagued the last couple of years. Prior to that, he was looking fine as a pro.
There you go. Start making it personal.
I actually didn't make mention of Meriweather until my last post. Even then, I can pull you posts from prior to 2011 talking about how bad of an idea it was to let him go.
I don't claim to know what they would have been in the Pats system. That's a manifestation on your part. My contention is that they've been more successful pros, with one being one of the better young safeties in the league. They were available, but instead the team whiffed on the likes of Wheatley (who already had an injury history) and Wilhite. I'm sorry that it hurts your feelings so much to hear that the team's DB drafts from 2008 to 2011 can be ranked as a small disaster, but that is the case.
Huh?? Let's do the timeline for a second, Biff...
1. I asked patsfaninpittsburgh/cleveland to compare Harmon's measurables to a guy like Bacarri's.
2. He responded with some weak personal insult.
And now I fail miserably at the comparison, when I'm the one that asked specifically how the two stack up to each other? In what world does this make sense?
Again, I'm not seeing how any of these names are relevent. I could just as easily turn around and show you how accurately these people usually predict a crap shoot of a draft round by round and be just as correct about it.
It's even worse, then. The team probably should have realized that there was a good chance that Harmon would end up in the later rounds. Again, I can go safety by safety drafted after Harmon. Each either went right where they were projected to go or not too long after. And, again, if they missed out on Harmon, so what? He's not exactly a "can't miss" prospect.
Either way, you still are making assumptions as to whether or not they'd be successful with the Patriots. I'm not making any assumptions. I don't pretend to know the future. That is the difference.
That isn't making it personal. Making it personal would be calling you names or talking about your family. How can anyone have a reasonable conversation with you when you don't understand the difference between making something personal and characterizing your actions?
You say that, but it doesn't help that your facts are wrong. Chung wasn't benched in year 3.
Chung missed 8 games due to injury in year 3. It was year 4 that he was demoted to back-up for 4 games and missed 4 due to injury.
Just because a player isn't re-signed to the team doesn't make them a "BUST". Especially when we've established that your facts are wrong..
Really? You don't claim to know what they would have been in the Pats system? Then why harp on the selections? OH I know. Because, in reality, you DO believe they'd have been just as successful in the Pats system as they are in their current systems.
You brought Rambo up in response to me as well. And others pointed out how their "measurables" stack up against one another. You ignored it. That's how you failed with your comparison.
No, actually, you couldn't be "just as correct" about it. Why? Because the rate at which they get things right is actually a lot lower than you believe. In fact, it's lower than 50% on the players who actually do things in the NFL.
How could it be even WORSE? You continue to make no sense at all. You hold pundits who have a horrible track record of predicting what players will do in the NFL to being gospel as to what value is and then you slam the team that has a better track record than the people you hold as gospel for how they evaluate their board with ridiculous comments based on nothing at all.
As for whether or not they missed out on Harmon, it's funny that you are saying "So what" since you were lambasting the Patriots for drafting him where they did.
Gentleman, at this time I am done with my work day. I look forward to seeing the many replies tomorrow when I come in. I will have my coffee and address every single one of you then. It's been fun.
Im sure your boss will be thrilled
The key to all of this discussion is the opportunity cost of selecting Harmon at #91. People are assuming there were relatively equal assets available at #91 that could have been added in addition to Harmon. But what if that just weren't the case?
You're still lost. People are stunned because he probably could have waited to go safety again and instead spent a day two selection either bulking up the DL or selecting a pass rusher with relative high value instead of reaching for Harmon. They could have instead taken the chance that Harmon would be there later, making it a great value pick.
A couple of things here...
It's a safer bet to assume that a guy who has been a productive pro since being drafted would be a better fit here than a guy who ended up being a bust. If you use the "well, you wouldn't know how they would do in the Pats system", argument here, then you might as well be leery of all draft picks and free agents, since you can't presume to know how any of them would do.
Sure it was. That you weren't able to pick up on it isn't surprising. That's why the majority of debates you take part in turn into pissing contests.
Math error on my part. You'll note that I stated several times that he was benched "in his last year with the team". But at least you can admit that he was benched.
Sure it does. Chung was drafted with what was pretty much a low first rounder with hopes of being the team's leading safety going forward. There were threads on this forum comparing the guy to Chuck Norris and Rodney Harrison, FFS. Given what he was drafted for and what he produced, he was a bust. And you're really reaching here.
No, that's not it at all. Those guys proved to be successful pros. Terrence Wheatley did not. Big difference.
Can you quote this?
I made no mention of this whatsoever. So congratulations on getting my response about as wrong is it could possibly get. I suppose I should tell you again that what I'm talking about is how they project players vs. where the players actually go. They're usually about as close as you can get for the crap shoot that they're projecting. But you'll probably just ignore this as well because, well, you're grasping at straws.
You're even more lost on this one than pfip. I've said nothing about what I think Harmon will do in the NFL outside of the fact that he projects to be McCourty's back-up. What I did say is that if the team was doing the evaluation, then what you stated made it even worse, since they should have considered that there was a very large possibility he would have been there later.
Luckily it only takes me 4-5 minutes max to type out a reply. The vast majority of my posting has been done during work days. I like to enjoy my life outside of work, which means very little time on here. Not the same for you?
This is the same Mike Reiss...who has said, time and again, that he's horrible at talent evaluation when it comes to the Patriots.