The BIGGEST REACH of the 2013 draft: Harmon vs RANKED SAFETIES taken after him

captain stone · May 1, 2013

manxman2601 said:
He clearly tried to trade down at 91 (the clock counted all the way down) but clearly didn't have any appealing takers. The silly thing is, and I think you're pointing this out, is that if Boyce and Harmon were reversed, most would have been fine with the way this played out (or if BB had taken Patton at 91 and Harmon at 102).

If Bill tried to trade out of 91, then he didn't try hard enough, because Miami gave 109, 146 & 224
to GB for 93.

captain stone · May 1, 2013

Metaphors said:
- Ran a 4.45 at his pro day (so timing may be questionable) so he has at least functional safety speed, and possibly has very good speed.
- Is 6' 195lbs so is solid for a FS but a little undersized for taking on blocks.
- Has good vert (36") and broad (125") that compare favorably with top safeties like Elam.
- In clips I've seen when playing centerfield, closes fast on receivers and RBs in the hole...supported by limited scouting notes I've seen and reinforces the notion that his timed speed translates to the field.
- 2x all-conference and has played against top QBs (Nassib, Wilson, Daniels, Bridgewater)
- 5 interceptions in 2011 so hands aren't inept

From what source are you getting the 4.45/36"/125" information?

patchick · May 1, 2013

captain stone said:
From what source are you getting the 4.45/36"/125" information?

FWIW, it's in line with what I've seen for his pro day numbers. (There's always some different reports on hand timings from pro days.)

captain stone · May 1, 2013

Duron Harmon | Rutgers, SS : 2013 NFL Draft Scout Player Profile

So the vertical/broad #s are correct, but the 4.45 40-time is wrong. He's a 4.51-4.55 DB,
which is a not-insignificant difference from a 4.45 DB.

patchick · May 1, 2013

captain stone said:
Duron Harmon*|*Rutgers,*SS*:*2013 NFL Draft Scout Player Profile

So the vertical/broad #s are correct, but the 4.45 40-time is wrong. He's a 4.51-4.55 DB,
which is a not-insignificant difference from a 4.45 DB.

Again, it's not a matter of "wrong," it's just different sources from different timers. Here's a spreadsheet directly from Rutgers that not only records the 4.45 40 time for Harmon, but also significantly better shuttle and cone times than NFLDraftScout has (4.16/6.86).

http://www.scarletknights.com/ck/files/football/2013/2013ProDay_results.pdf

dryheat44 · May 1, 2013

patfanken said:
I find it interesting that 3 safeties were taken over the next 25 picks. It would explain why BB when with him so early. Clearly that among those 2 Safeties, BB wanted Harmon. He also knew that there were 3 or 4 teams that were also looking for a S.

The bottom line is that none of this "Value" crap means anything until we see how the players taken ultimately contribute to the team. Chad Jackson was considered a great value.,..the day after the draft. After that...not so much. Deadrick and Love have been huge values compared to how they came into the league. Yet I rarely hear their names mentioned when the "draft critics" are on a roll,.

Bedard is right about one thing, in that there are 4 safeties taken all within a round of each other. 3 years from now we will be able to sit back and have a good idea who had the best pick. THAT's the way to judge a draft, unlike State who has already made instant judgements on players who haven't worn pads one day in the NFL.

It's helpful to remember that when an analyst calls a pick a "reach" what he's saying is "This GM likes this player more than I do." When an analyst grades a draft, the good grades go to the teams whose drafts most closely resembles the analyst's draft board. The bad grades go to the teams that don't like the same players as the analyst.

When someone like Evan Silva, not to be a age-ist, but who looks to be about 17, blasts the Patriots draft, it's pretty f'ing ridiculous, since he's almost certainly not watched coaches film of NFL or NCAA games to have an idea, and started with a mock draft from McShay or Kiper and moved some things around. It's even more ridiculous that fans take the grades at all seriously.

Good grades and Bad grades are nothing more than "I agree" or "I disagree" statements.

dryheat44 · May 1, 2013

captain stone said:
If Bill tried to trade out of 91, then he didn't try hard enough, because Miami gave 109, 146 & 224
to GB for 93.

Yeah, I agree. The only thing that makes sense to me is that Miami refused to trade with New England, or that BB thought he had a deal in the works and it fell through late.

Or maybe he just thought Harmon was leaps and bounds the best fit of the remaining safeties available.

patchick · May 1, 2013

dryheat44 said:
Good grades and Bad grades are nothing more than "I agree" or "I disagree" statements.

This is absolutely true, but surprisingly, post-draft "grades" -- even from the likes of Mel Kiper -- do seem to have some predictive value.

Here's a writer who gave post-hoc grades on the actual value of teams' draft classes over a three year periods, then ran correlations with the grades Kiper gave them on draft day.

The correlation coefficient between Kiper’s grades and draft scores for the teams was positive each year, meaning their was a relationship between getting a good grade from Kiper and finishing higher in draft value. For 2007, it was +0.54, for 2008 it was +0.23 and for 2009 it was +0.35. The average across this period was a correlation of +0.37. To put that in some perspective, that correlation is similar to a team’s winning percentage last season, and the next season, in the NFL.

Grading Mel Kiper’s NFL Draft Grades From 2007 to 2009 | Big Lead Sports

Sciz · May 1, 2013

captain stone said:
If Bill tried to trade out of 91, then he didn't try hard enough, because Miami gave 109, 146 & 224
to GB for 93.

Hypothetically, let's say you can offer the Jets a trade down that they desperately want, or you can wait two picks and trade with the Eagles instead. Which do you do?

SeymourTrophies · May 1, 2013

Avenger said:
FWIW everybody I talked to down at Rutgers this weekend said pretty much the same thing. Good player, underrated, and they were disappointed the Pats got him. "I hate him but Belichick is a good coach who knows what he's doing."

I don't want to resurrect the beaten horse of the Wilson pick of 2012, but that's more than anyone had to say about Tavon.

The media argument is weak sauce. Nobody had a good read on this draft after the top 10. Based on Geno Smith's and Harmon's reactions to where they got picked, the players had no idea either. I'm all for pick a player you think will do whatever you want them to do well, and value between the 3rd and 7th rounds is the difference between peanuts and lima beans, but this draft was all over the place for a lot of teams. We also have a larger number of goof ups to attribute to BB because he has had a job longer than anyone else in the business. If I had the same job for this long, I'd probably start trying to assemble a wicked good ultimate frisbee and chess team too.

captain stone · May 1, 2013

dryheat44 said:
Yeah, I agree. The only thing that makes sense to me is that Miami refused to trade with New England, or that BB thought he had a deal in the works and it fell through late.

Or maybe he just thought Harmon was leaps and bounds the best fit of the remaining safeties available.

Or that Bill refused to trade with Miami, which makes no sense to me why he would do that during that particular point of the draft. Now if Bill refused to trade #29 to the Doofins, then I can dig that. But I would send #91 for #s 109, 146 & 224 to whichever team wants it.

And I just can't understand how Bill thinks that Harmon is better than Philip Thomas, from until recently Pat Hill-coached Fresno St.

captain stone · May 1, 2013

patchick said:
Again, it's not a matter of "wrong," it's just different sources from different timers. Here's a spreadsheet directly from Rutgers that not only records the 4.45 40 time for Harmon, but also significantly better shuttle and cone times than NFLDraftScout has (4.16/6.86).

http://www.scarletknights.com/ck/files/football/2013/2013ProDay_results.pdf

I would take with a grain or 2 of salt the results of a Rutgers player by a Rutgers publication.

BPF · May 2, 2013

Teams set their own boards for their team/scheme. I don't believe the Pats feel they reached for him, according to their board he was a 3rd Rd pick. S was not a "need" so it seems they wanted the player & felt someone else could take him. Cosell tweeted he thinks "Harmon is smart w/excellent play recognition + awareness." Looks like he has a feel for coverage and attacks the run.

EwanSellars · May 2, 2013

maybe the reason the patriots didnt trade back with teh dolphins is because they really wanted boyce and wouldve taken him if we hadnt picked him so its likely they were trying to trade up for him

captain stone · May 2, 2013

I read somewhere that Miami was on the phone with Boyce while the Pats were on the clock at 102.
Miami was going to use either 104 or 106 on him until he told them that he had just been drafted by NE.
Reminds me of the Matt Light & the Jesters situation in 2001.

So Miami was indeed very interested in reuniting Boyce & Tannehill, but the pick I was suggesting
that Bill trade was #91, not 102.

belichick010405 · May 2, 2013

captain stone said:
I read somewhere that Miami was on the phone with Boyce while the Pats were on the clock at 102.
Miami was going to use either 104 or 106 on him until he told them that he had just been drafted by NE.
Reminds me of the Matt Light & the Jesters situation in 2001.

So Miami was indeed very interested in reuniting Boyce & Tannehill, but the pick I was suggesting
that Bill trade was #91, not 102.

Boyce went to TCU. Tannehill went to A & M.

JMC00 · May 2, 2013

captain stone said:
So Miami was indeed very interested in reuniting Boyce & Tannehill

If Miami wanted a reuniting it would have been Swope.

captain stone · May 3, 2013

You guys are right, maybe I was getting Boyce & Swope's names mixed-up.

But I'm still pretty sure that the Boyce-to-Miami story was right...I think.

Edit: here's one of the stories about it:
http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2013/04/30/patriots-beat-dolphins-to-punch-for-josh-boyce/

Metaphors · May 3, 2013

captain stone said:
From what source are you getting the 4.45/36"/125" information?

You can watch the pro day on youtube (search "Rutgers 2013 pro day"...there are lots of options). Those numbers were reported on one of the videos and it looked like a Rutgers broadcast.

To your point, I'm actually not naive enough to think that the 4.45 is overly scientific. However, I think it is a relative enough gauge of his speed to place him in the upper tier of speedy safeties.

Other points:
- He ran a 4.58 in his second run and said he pulled something during that run. Not sure if that was a Caddyshack "Ow my arm" move but take it for what its worth.

- Seems like the 4.51 is about the midway point of the 4.45/4.58 runs that he had...so maybe that is an average timing rather than some "official" observation from the pro day.

captain stone · May 4, 2013

Could be. Take the best time, the worst time, and find the middle ground.
Now if Harmon had repeated the 4.45 time, that would've been truly impressive.

The BIGGEST REACH of the 2013 draft: Harmon vs RANKED SAFETIES taken after him

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