First Pick Trade Almost Certain

If we retain Sanders and give up 3rd rd (#91) does this mean that BB trades 1st RD (#29) for additional picks. I think so. Will he find a trade partner? Seems like teams may be reluctant to give Pats more picks. My hope is there QB late in the 1st rd that teams who need a QB will be willing to trade up because of the weak QB class.

They need more picks. The only way I don't see a trade down from 29 is if they recoup some picks by trading Mallett or if there's a top-10 type of player that's fallen.

I also expect us to trade down form 29.

However, the value of the 2nd pick is equal to that of 3rd-7th if someone picking around pick 20 in each round. So, moving down 3/4 of a round yields 4 extra picks. The same is true of our first, except that we would get 5 extra picks. Of course, it would take more than one trade to effect either of these results, but the value is there.

I would not be disappointed with a wide receiver at 29.

Hearing teams are looking into Pats type position to jump back into 1st round to grab Nassib who is rocketing up boards

Question is, what if someone like Bjoern Werner is still on the board when we pick? What players offer more value as picks at #29 rather than trading down?

I kinda disagree, last year The Patriots moved up and picked two players in the first round, a sign that they believe they have moved into 'Win Mode' and are almost done with 'Rebuilding mode'.

I think when the Patriots used to trade back so that they could have more bullets, and pick more players, however they have been using their picks are currency to improve their team right now, the aggressive more to sign an NFL ready WR in Emmanuel sanders should be your greatest indication that the patriots don't want to spend a ton of time developing new prospects as few of them will make the team.

The Patriots may still trade down (or up) if they see a situation where they can get good value in such as in the second round, but i think the Patriots won't be making a ton of moves and will be selecting players who can produce for them right now in a position of obvious weakness or a position where the depth is weakest (such as WR) and has the greatest potential for early returns or quick growth potential.

manxman2601 said:

Question is, what if someone like Bjoern Werner is still on the board when we pick? What players offer more value as picks at #29 rather than trading down?

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I take Werner, theres a few who if fall i'd hope we pull the trigger

manxman2601 said:

Question is, what if someone like Bjoern Werner is still on the board when we pick? What players offer more value as picks at #29 rather than trading down?

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I think it really comes down to individual evaluation of the player, and Werner might be the best example in the draft. I don't think I've seen any of the highly rated players with such a wide discrepancy in draft value. Some think he could go #2 overall while others think he is a late 1st rounder. If they value him as a top 10 guy then I would be fine if they stayed. If they valued him as the 29th best player in the draft though I would trade down because the accumulated value would be much higher than a single player. I really think this is going to be the craziest draft I have ever seen and we will be kept on our toes the whole way. I cant wait!

It may be tougher than usual. We want to trade down...and so does every other team.

serifyn said:

I kinda disagree, last year The Patriots moved up and picked two players in the first round, a sign that they believe they have moved into 'Win Mode' and are almost done with 'Rebuilding mode'

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I think you misread what happened last year. BB is always in 'Win Mode'. He doesn't turn it on and off, based on what he thinks he has on the roster. The 2001 team was less talented than any team we've had since then, and that team won it all.

Drafting two young defensive players last year was 100% a matter of a quality draft class with players that he likes (that could have been drafted in the teens) available at the end of the 1st. Completely a supply-side decision, not demand-side. Drafting Hightower and Jones was a matter of BB being opportunistic.

Mark Morse said:

If we retain Sanders and give up 3rd rd (#91) does this mean that BB trades 1st RD (#29) for additional picks. I think so. Will he find a trade partner? My hope is there QB late in the 1st rd that teams who need a QB will be willing to trade up because of the weak QB class.

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Thursday promises to be a slow night for Patriots draftnics...I would hate to be an expensive draft party that night...

>Seems like teams may be reluctant to give Pats more picks.
Naw...I doubt that this has any bearing. Other teams could care less; most just want (need) to win now and will be willing to mortgage the future to trade up and get some player they are obsession on.

>QB will be willing to trade up because of the weak QB class
CBs are a rarer commodity than QBs and teams always need CBs but that aside from that there are many reasons teams trade up.

Unless DT Floyd (who if I were KC,would take at #1 overall) falls to the Pats, I think BB is trading#29.

I look for his trades to net 2013 as well as a 2014 picks.

After the draft, we could see BB go on a free agent buying spree to fill in some of the roster holes and create camp competition.

Big potential for UDFAs to impress in camp this year.

How can a trade down be certain when no one knows what the draft board will look like? If there is a player the pats covet they will select him if they feel he won't be around in round 2.

It depends entirely upon who is left on the board when their pick is approaching and what the offers are. We all thought the I-Dowling pick was a lock to be traded but they either liked him too much orthere were no good offers on the table. In terms of the offers it will also depend upon the other teams looking to move down and QB's dropping. If Smith, Manuel, Glennon, and Barkley are still around then teams may be jostling to move up and get one.

FredFromDartmouth said:

>Seems like teams may be reluctant to give Pats more picks.
Naw...I doubt that this has any bearing. Other teams could care less; most just want (need) to win now and will be willing to mortgage the future to trade up and get some player they are obsession on.

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You reminded me how we got poor value last year trading back, right before another team did the same thing and got much more. Even Mike Reiss had fairly harsh words about it, as did some of us on this board.

If we smell desperate, we won't get what we want.

I'd like to trade down, and that's probably what we can do with the three evenly matched QBs that some team may be willing to move to get, but I know we may stay at 29 and grab a physical, talented receiver like my binkie Keenan Allen.

I consider him a bigger, stronger, faster David Givens.

Ivan said:

We all thought the I-Dowling pick was a lock to be traded but they either liked him too much or there were no good offers on the table.

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Great point.

They like him too much.

Word was that multiple teams--as is usual for this pick, the first of the second, in the old days it was the beginning of the second day of the draft--wanted to trade with us.

We had leverage.

But as Captain Stone has rightfully said about the matter, Bill wanted to thumb his nose at everyone and show how much smarter he was. But so far this pick has come back to bite them big time, both in the opportunity cost in foregoing a move-down with the extra picks and the loss of an available player later that round. I probably shouldn't mention his name anymore.

All right. Torrey Smith, WR, Maryland.

BTW, years earlier the Patriots had a similar situation with the first player in the second and chose a guard from Michigan who never panned out. I had high hopes for him.

So the point is: the first pick in the second is a sweet spot for trading down if one is inclined. And in the Patriots history they haven't had much success that I can remember picking 31.

I see the Bengals have two second-rounders, two sixth-rounders.
I see the Bengals have "franchise" QB Andy Dalton, who plays a lot like Tony Eason.
I see the Bengals losing to the Texans in the playoffs in the last two years.
I see the Bengals are worried about Dalton's perceived lack of big-game performance.
I see Bengals in my dreams.

2013 NFL Draft Tracker
2013 is a make or break year for Cincinnati Bengals QB Andy Dalton

I see the Bengals being very interested in Syracuse's Ryan Nassib, the kind of winner who can come in and challenge Dalton. Who knows. Stranger things have happened.

Bengals 2013: First, 21; Second, 37 (the fifth pick!); Second, 53; Third, 84; Fourth, 118; Fifth, 156; Sixth, 190; Sixth, 197; Seventh, 240; and, Seventh, 251.

That's some ammo right there, which we don't have.

FredFromDartmouth said:

CBs are a rarer commodity than QBs...

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What???