Curran: For Welker it was about ego, not money

None of us know or can know what really happened here. We all come at this difficult subject with our own pre-dispositions and opinions.

Did Belichick and the Krafts set too low a value on Welker, relative to his importance to Brady and his value to the team and, as a result, make a major mistake? Maybe.

Were Belichick and the Krafts simply acting in a way that is generally consistent with their policy over the years of not paying top dollar for players, especially when they are at the tail end of their careers? Maybe.

Is it possible that the Krafts were not mature enough to get over the fact that Welker had their fourth Lombardi in his hands and dropped it and that they then compounded that mistake by letting that color their approach to this entire matter? Maybe. (I also don't think we should underestimate this possibility, though, in the end, it's as much just a matter of opinion as the other two above.)

In general terms, no matter the reason, is it sad that the Pats couldn't hold onto Welker? Certainly.

BradyManny said:

I have a hard time believing that the Patriots would make a personnel decision with any motive other than the best interest of the football team in mind.

At the same time, I have a hard time believing that the Patriots honestly believe Danny Amendola will be a better receiving option next year or any year than Wes Welker.

So either way, I'm at a loss at the moment.

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I think Reis' take is probably accurate. They wanted Wes, they tried to keep Wes, but they will not go over their allotted budget for his specific slot skill-set. Wes felt like his value was higher and wanted a bargaining chip, so he tested the market. The Patriots weighed their options and felt the risk of having no skilled slot receiver was too high and would be too damaging, so they went ahead with Amendola, who also has the higher upside 3-4 years down the road (and with only $10M guaranteed it's a good deal for the Patriots).

Wes came back with the Broncos offer but at that point it was either just too late (Pats had agreed with Amendola) OR the Pats still wouldn't budge and Welker decided he preferred the Broncos deal.

upstater1 said:

I expect it will hurt them on the field next year. Now, Welker didn't play much in the opener, and the Patriots offense moved things fine, but there were points during the season when the offense stalled--until they started using Welker. The first Buffalo game is one example. They had a putrid first half. Then they started to feature Welker, and because of that they put up 50 points.

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Wasn't the first half offensive stalled due to fumbles by Gronk and Welker? I remember the running game was killing the Bills defensive front.

upstater1 said:

$6m is considerably more than $5m. The deals are not really close. I can't see many players willing to take 16% less in salary unless they're set.

Welker was worth more to the Patriots because he knows the offense and works well with Brady. The Patriots are not going to have the same success at his position without him, and Wes will not have the same success without Brady. But he will be making more money than he would have on the Patriots.

I've stepped away from all of this over the last day, and when I weigh everything, it seems to me that the Patriots made a colossal screw-up. I don't think they believe they did since they had plenty of time to weigh everything, but in the end, they are not going to be as good a team as they could have been without this. $1 million more for Welker is what they needed to spend--we spend $1 million more a year on the Fanene's of the world, the Patriots send guaranteed money to players who are cut in camp. $m is not going to make or break their budget--and for that reason alone, this is a big screw-up.

I expect it will hurt them on the field next year. Now, Welker didn't play much in the opener, and the Patriots offense moved things fine, but there were points during the season when the offense stalled--until they started using Welker. The first Buffalo game is one example. They had a putrid first half. Then they started to feature Welker, and because of that they put up 50 points.

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And this is a win for the Pats because they now have WW's potential replacement under control for the next 5 years. They likely didn't want to spend 12M on that position, and the value of not scrambling for a replacement in 2 years and/or trying to renegotiate with a player where negotiations haven't gone smoothly is worth more than the production difference.

The Bills game you're referring to turned on the Pats second drive of the 3rd. WW was targeted 0 times on that drive and 100% of the yards were from RBs. WW was an important part of that game, but he wasn't what broke it open.

upstater1 said:

It's training camp.

Wes doesn't have anything to prove in training camp. He is reliable. He proves it during the season. The Patriots have had a great many training camp warriors at WR over the years--but these players never did a thing during games. If the staff is truly judging players based on camp performances and not game reliability, you have to question their senses.

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As a fan I prefer a team where players feel like they're competing for their spot/role on a team. Complacency, lack of fire, etc are common complaints about many players on many other teams throughout sports. This is a complaint that we rarely hear about Patriot players and I have to think that the way they run things is a large part of that. You seem to want the team to make special exceptions to how they run things for WW, but that never really works.

emoney_33 said:

I think Reis' take is probably accurate. They wanted Wes, they tried to keep Wes, but they will not go over their allotted budget for his specific slot skill-set. Wes felt like his value was higher and wanted a bargaining chip, so he tested the market. The Patriots weighed their options and felt the risk of having no skilled slot receiver was too high and would be too damaging, so they went ahead with Amendola, who also has the higher upside 3-4 years down the road (and with only $10M guaranteed it's a good deal for the Patriots).

Wes came back with the Broncos offer but at that point it was either just too late (Pats had agreed with Amendola) OR the Pats still wouldn't budge and Welker decided he preferred the Broncos deal.

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But this is why so many Patriot fans are upset. We can't understand why the Patriots would value the difference between $5 and $6 million in such a fashion. It doesn't make sense to us. The Patriots squander a million here and there each year with guarantees to FAs who never pan out (I'm not criticizing them for that). Are they so doctrinaire about value that they can't get past a $1 million difference (at a low salary level) for a guy that has been the most productive receiver in football? If so, I question their judgment.

All you need to see is that there were many Patriot fans yesterday who were disappointed in Welker going to the Broncos, but understood that the Patriots were outbid and that there was only a limited amount of redress. When the news came out of $12 million for 2 years, the s--- hit the fan. Even people who thought Welker should move on suddenly became livid at the Patriots for letting him go for so cheap.

Losing Welker became a much bigger story when fans saw the contract.

ThatllMoveTheChains!!! said:

And this is a win for the Pats because they now have WW's potential replacement under control for the next 5 years. They likely didn't want to spend 12M on that position, and the value of not scrambling for a replacement in 2 years and/or trying to renegotiate with a player where negotiations haven't gone smoothly is worth more than the production difference.

The Bills game you're referring to turned on the Pats second drive of the 3rd. WW was targeted 0 times on that drive and 100% of the yards were from RBs. WW was an important part of that game, but he wasn't what broke it open.


As a fan I prefer a team where players feel like they're competing for their spot/role on a team. Complacency, lack of fire, etc are common complaints about many players on many other teams throughout sports. This is a complaint that we rarely hear about Patriot players and I have to think that the way they run things is a large part of that. You seem to want the team to make special exceptions to how they run things for WW, but that never really works.

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I disagree 100% with this.

Wes Welker showed fire and production on the field. I can't believe anyone would ever ever question his commitment and heart. He was the guts of the entire team.

I was at the Bills game. Welker's impact on the game was palpable in the stands and on the field. He shredded the Bills, and every frickin Bills fan in the stands was screaming the name Welker from the top of their lungs repeatedly. It was as though he was a one man band.

After the game, Chan Gailey's ENTIRE press conference was about Welker. He literally told the press, after they had beaten him down, that he had n answers for Welker and that he couldn't contain him at all.

upstater1 said:

But this is why so many Patriot fans are upset. We can't understand why the Patriots would value the difference between $5 and $6 million in such a fashion. It doesn't make sense to us. The Patriots squander a million here and there each year with guarantees to FAs who never pan out (I'm not criticizing them for that). Are they so doctrinaire about value that they can't get past a $1 million difference (at a low salary level) for a guy that has been the most productive receiver in football? If so, I question their judgment.

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It was quite probably not simply just over $1M. If they made the decision to not retain Welker at 2/$12 it's because they valued the totality of the Amendola deal over that, and that necessarily includes weighing the value of his upside in years 3-5 as well as any upside they may have considered from the additional speed, height and hands. We can't be certain, but I think I'll trust their judgement 100 times out of 100 times against any of us on the outside with a fraction of the information. Not because I think they are infallible but because I accept that we cannot possess enough information to accurately gauge their decision.

All you need to see is that there were many Patriot fans yesterday who were disappointed in Welker going to the Broncos, but understood that the Patriots were outbid and that there was only a limited amount of redress. When the news came out of $12 million for 2 years, the s--- hit the fan. Even people who thought Welker should move on suddenly became livid at the Patriots for letting him go for so cheap.

Losing Welker became a much bigger story when fans saw the contract.

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I understand this, but a lot of fans are still taking a wildly illogical stance suggesting that the Patriots simply "screwed up" such an "easy" decision. We can speculate all we want, but at the end of the day we know the Patriots run a very successful business model. They have been able to compete at a high level for more than a decade because they are very very good at what they do. So while they have almost undoubtedly made suboptimal decisions throughout that time, their plan unarguably works. We know, without a shadow of a doubt, that they did their due diligence and put serious thought into the decision, weighing as many risks and rewards as they could think of.

As a fan, at the end of the day, it's the slot and Amendola will be able to succeed there, and if he gets hurt, an Edelman will have success. It's not a position that is going to have a severe impact on the Patriots offense unless there are multiple issues that happen in parallel. Sure we will not match Welker's talent there, but the drop-off will not be significant when it comes to the entire offense, whose job is still to score as many points as they can.

Metaphors said:

The first 2 years are really important since the cap won't rise significantly. $6M per must have been more than the Pats were willing to commit this year and next. Amendola's cap hits may be closer to half that number.

The only way this gets a little fishy is if the Pats don't spend to the cap this year and/or next. I assuming that won't happen. As long as Vollmer re-signs, Solder gets his deal next year and the defensive backfield gets a couple of new faces, everything will be just fine with the world.

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Given the low guaranteed value on the contract, that's looking like he has a very small signing bonus, which means that most of his cap hit is likely to come in base salaries. $21M over 5 years can be spread out in a lot of ways. His total cap hit in 2013 could pretty easily be in the $4M range.

upstater1 said:

All you need to see is that there were many Patriot fans yesterday who were disappointed in Welker going to the Broncos, but understood that the Patriots were outbid and that there was only a limited amount of redress. When the news came out of $12 million for 2 years, the s--- hit the fan. Even people who thought Welker should move on suddenly became livid at the Patriots for letting him go for so cheap.

Losing Welker became a much bigger story when fans saw the contract.

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And then Reiss points out that counting incentives (yes, the devil is in the details), the Pats offered more than the Donkeys.

I think it was as simple as Wes wanted 3 or 4 years from the Patriots but he was willing to take whatever (2 years) he could get from any other team not named the Patriots. I don't think the Patriots had a 2 year option to get him.

PatsFanSince74 said:

None of us know or can know what really happened here. We all come at this difficult subject with our own pre-dispositions and opinions.

Did Belichick and the Krafts set too low a value on Welker, relative to his importance to Brady and his value to the team and, as a result, make a major mistake? Maybe.

Were Belichick and the Krafts simply acting in a way that is generally consistent with their policy over the years of not paying top dollar for players, especially when they are at the tail end of their careers? Maybe.

Is it possible that the Krafts were not mature enough to get over the fact that Welker had their fourth Lombardi in his hands and dropped it and that they then compounded that mistake by letting that color their approach to this entire matter? Maybe. (I also don't think we should underestimate this possibility, though, in the end, it's as much just a matter of opinion as the other two above.)

In general terms, no matter the reason, is it sad that the Pats couldn't hold onto Welker? Certainly.

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You forgot another. Did Welker over value himself to the point that the Patriots looked to other receivers and in the end decided to go in a different direction? Yup.

Let's not let his blame in all this go unaddressed.

KamikazeKnight said:

Code:

I just call 'em like I see 'em.

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Really? You have 17 posts, you apparently don't see very much.

emoney_33 said:

It was quite probably not simply just over $1M. If they made the decision to not retain Welker at 2/$12 it's because they valued the totality of the Amendola deal over that, and that necessarily includes weighing the value of his upside in years 3-5 as well as any upside they may have considered from the additional speed, height and hands. We can't be certain, but I think I'll trust their judgement 100 times out of 100 times against any of us on the outside with a fraction of the information. Not because I think they are infallible but because I accept that we cannot possess enough information to accurately gauge their decision.

I understand this, but a lot of fans are still taking a wildly illogical stance suggesting that the Patriots simply "screwed up" such an "easy" decision. We can speculate all we want, but at the end of the day we know the Patriots run a very successful business model. They have been able to compete at a high level for more than a decade because they are very very good at what they do. So while they have almost undoubtedly made suboptimal decisions throughout that time, their plan unarguably works. We know, without a shadow of a doubt, that they did their due diligence and put serious thought into the decision, weighing as many risks and rewards as they could think of.

As a fan, at the end of the day, it's the slot and Amendola will be able to succeed there, and if he gets hurt, an Edelman will have success. It's not a position that is going to have a severe impact on the Patriots offense unless there are multiple issues that happen in parallel. Sure we will not match Welker's talent there, but the drop-off will not be significant when it comes to the entire offense, whose job is still to score as many points as they can.

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In 2006, Belichick's decision to let Branch go cost the Patriots a Super Bowl victory.

These are the decisions I care about much more than whether Amendola will be a better player than Welker in 4 years.

upstater1 said:

I disagree 100% with this.

Wes Welker showed fire and production on the field. I can't believe anyone would ever ever question his commitment and heart. He was the guts of the entire team.

I was at the Bills game. Welker's impact on the game was palpable in the stands and on the field. He shredded the Bills, and every frickin Bills fan in the stands was screaming the name Welker from the top of their lungs repeatedly. It was as though he was a one man band.

After the game, Chan Gailey's ENTIRE press conference was about Welker. He literally told the press, after they had beaten him down, that he had n answers for Welker and that he couldn't contain him at all.

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Nowhere did I question his fire; this is a clear straw man. What I said is the Pats expect players to always be competing and I think that helps prevent the entitlement we see elsewhere from vets/stars. I also said that making exceptions to such rules/standards doesn't work and that you seemingly expected the Pats to do just that. I stand by those statements and if you want to discuss them feel free.

I don't think that the reactions of fans and a (bad) coach are good indicators of a player's importance. The fact stands that WW had been targeted 6 of his 11 times prior to the drive I pointed to as the turning point. The Pats had just had a failed drive to open the 2nd half followed by the Bills scoring a TD. At this point the Pats were down 14 and hadn't scored since their first drive. Momentum was on the Bills side and the Pats were on their heals. Then the Pats marched 80 yards in 3 mins on the backs of their RBs. The Pats scored 38 points and the Bills 7 after that drive. The RBs combined for 277 total yards and 4 TDs in that game... I'm not saying WW wasn't important, but the RBs were the story that day. Maybe the fact that Gainey didn't understand that is why he's not very good at his job.

Ivan said:

Really? You have 17 posts, you apparently don't see very much.

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Yes, because nobody ever lurks a forum without posting. :bricks:

upstater1 said:

In 2006, Belichick's decision to let Branch go cost the Patriots a Super Bowl victory.

These are the decisions I care about much more than whether Amendola will be a better player than Welker in 4 years.

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They scored 34 points in the AFCCG loss.

upstater1 said:

In 2006, Belichick's decision to let Branch go cost the Patriots a Super Bowl victory.

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That may be one of the most emotionally biased and flat out ridiculous statements I have heard in quite some time. There is absolutely no way to know how the year would have went if things went different. That being said, let's not pretend that the Patriots simply traded Branch away on a whim. He was holding out demanding the Patriots make a stupid business decision by overpaying him on a new contract, and they got more value than he was worth in trade. And we lost 38-34...

These are the decisions I care about much more than whether Amendola will be a better player than Welker in 4 years.

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And I am thankful each and every day that people with this mentality do not run the team.

upstater1 said:

In 2006, Belichick's decision to let Branch go cost the Patriots a Super Bowl victory.

These are the decisions I care about much more than whether Amendola will be a better player than Welker in 4 years.

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They had no replacement for Branch. They have a replacement for Welker. See the difference, or you just want to get upset for no reason?

And don't get it twisted. This is about now. Amendola is RIGHT NOW a fully developed player in the prime of his career. He had 85 catches THREE YEARS AGO. He was on pace for over 100 last year before getting hurt. This is a tremendous player, with the injury caveat, although none of them should be lingering.

upstater1 said:

In 2006, Belichick's decision to let Branch go cost the Patriots a Super Bowl victory.

These are the decisions I care about much more than whether Amendola will be a better player than Welker in 4 years.

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Whoa whoa, Branch isn't the reason. The reason is Rodney Harrison went down and the defense wasn't the same afterward.

Metaphors said:

The first 2 years are really important since the cap won't rise significantly. $6M per must have been more than the Pats were willing to commit this year and next. Amendola's cap hits may be closer to half that number.

The only way this gets a little fishy is if the Pats don't spend to the cap this year and/or next. I assuming that won't happen. As long as Vollmer re-signs, Solder gets his deal next year and the defensive backfield gets a couple of new faces, everything will be just fine with the world.

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Amen!:rocker:

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