Joe Flacco now the highest paid QB in NFL history

patfanken said:

4. Like all highly paid QB's, his cap situation will very soon become a burden on the Ravens. It may end up being around $12MM this season, but that means that within 2 years it will start to exceed the $20MM/yr average and will only grow as time goes on as the team is forced to keep adjusting it to maintain some cap control.

5. The Pats QB situation will stay at a very stable $13-15MM/yr cap hit for the next 5 years, and until another top QB decides to actually take money OFF the table like Brady did with the last 3 years of his contract, no other team with an "elite" QB will be able to make the same claim....no matter what Mike Florio, Ron Borges, and their ilk want to say.

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I agree with everything up until these final 2 thoughts, Ken.

This is the misconception that I am speaking of....here's the truth:

The ravens have set up Flacco's deal just like their other top deals to players like Suggs, Ngata, and Rice, which are actually a lot more frontloaded than they are backloaded. They agree to pay more up front now, but won't have to deal with unnecessary huge hits down the road, which actually tends to favor their approach, and could arguably be "just as good as ours." For the record I am not stating that they don't tier their contracts out and that the salary doesn't tend to climb like almost all NFL contracts, I'm just saying that when you consider more guaranteed money in the first few years, you can help to better avoid the definition of "backloaded" contracts, and that seems to be exactly what they've done.

From PFT's article:

Getting sixth year on Flacco deal was a win for Ravens | ProFootballTalk


"Per the source, the Ravens likely will pay out significant cash in the first 12 months, and likewise in the first three years. That’s the precedent they set in contracts given to players like running back Ray Rice, linebacker Terrell Suggs, and defensive lineman Haloti Ngata."

It would seem to me that they are okay with paying them more guaranteed money now and overall in the first couple/few yrs, which means that their backs wouldn't be up against the wall as much as many other teams if/when these players need to be moved on from. I'm not claiming that there isn't some gamble as there is with all big deals like this, but I am claiming that these thoughts of BAL having a crappy front office and their demise setting in quickly are extremely overrated, which is an enormous misconception around here lately.

Re: Flacco now the highest-paid QB in NFL history, according to Schefter

Joker said:

no...it doesn't

it reeks of snark though...

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Which, in the spirit of the dead season between the SB and Draft Day, raises indeed the age old question...if one could smell a snark what would a snark smell like?

What about Boldin's money or Smith's? half of that money should be for them.

Deus Irae said:

Your argument makes no sense.

Sanchez wasn't better than Brady in 2010, despite his Jets having beaten the Patriots, and he didn't suddenly deserve to be paid more than Brady because his team went farther in that season.

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My post was in response to the previous poster who said that Flacco was similar to Mark Sanchez with a stronger supporting cast. There's really no statistical measure or accomplishment in the past year that puts Mark Sanchez on the same level as Joe Flacco.

I totally agree with you about Brady and Sanchez.

Well, if the cap hit is only $7 million this year it can't be too front loaded.

His signing bonus can't possibly be more than $42 million. I am sure it is more than Brees' $37 million.

So, the only way to have a cap hit of $7 million this year is if he is drawing no salary. And if he is drawing no salary this year, that's going to be a pretty backloaded contract.

I am going to guess around a $40 million signing bonus, which is $7 million a year to the cap. To keep it low, you pay him zero this year in salary. After that it's time to pay the piper. My guess: about $8 million in salary next year, $12 million in 2015, and $20 million each of the three years after that. If I am close, that's a cap profile like this:

2013 salary $100,000 1/6 bonus $7m. Cap hit $7 million. Total paid $40m
2014 salary $8m, 1/6 bonus $7m. Cap hit $15m. Paid $48m
2015 salary $12m, 1/6 bonus $7m. Cap hit $19m. Paid $60m
2016 salary $20m, 1/6 bonus $7m. Cap hit $27m. Paid $80m
2017 salary $20m, 1/6 bonus $7m. Cap hit $27m. Paid $100m
2018 salary $20m, 1/6 bonus $7m. Cap hit $27m. Paid $120m

So, this is basically a 3 year deal for the Ravens. Flacco get $60 million, and gives them one year of a low cap, one of a medium, and one of a high. After that, he becomes a huge burden and must restructure. He has essentially ensured he will be their QB forever, because he is uncuttable until 2018 unless they just wanted to tube the 2016 season with a $21 million hit.

F0nSY said:

What about Boldin's money or Smith's? half of that money should be for them.

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Torrey Smith is halfway through his rookie deal. He has 2 more seasons remaining, and is scheduled to have a cap hit of a little less than one million each season (actually in 2014 it is 1,078,392). He isn't a concern for another couple of years, and there'd be a huge gray area as to what he's worth at the moment.

Anquan Boldin will have the same cap hit this year of approx. 7.5 million, which is also the exact same as was in 2012 and 2011. Another example of a pact set up without backloading.

Boldin will be a FA after the 2013 season, so my guess is that they'd try to reach something reasonable with him in the same ballpark as he's making now for another 1-2 yrs, or he'd simply retire. He wouldn't be commanding anywhere near much of a piece of the pie that Flacco signed. He may re-up for another 2/14 deal or something to that effect, depending on his 2013 season.

Either way, neither player is of any real concern to them at the moment contract or priority wise.

PatsFaninAZ said:

Well, if the cap hit is only $7 million this year it can't be too front loaded.

His signing bonus can't possibly be more than $42 million. I am sure it is more than Brees' $37 million.

So, the only way to have a cap hit of $7 million this year is if he is drawing no salary. And if he is drawing no salary this year, that's going to be a pretty backloaded contract.

I am going to guess around a $40 million signing bonus, which is $7 million a year to the cap. To keep it low, you pay him zero this year in salary. After that it's time to pay the piper. My guess: about $8 million in salary next year, $12 million in 2015, and $20 million each of the three years after that. If I am close, that's a cap profile like this:

2013 salary $100,000 1/6 bonus $7m. Cap hit $7 million. Total paid $40m
2014 salary $8m, 1/6 bonus $7m. Cap hit $15m. Paid $48m
2015 salary $12m, 1/6 bonus $7m. Cap hit $19m. Paid $60m
2016 salary $20m, 1/6 bonus $7m. Cap hit $27m. Paid $80m
2017 salary $20m, 1/6 bonus $7m. Cap hit $27m. Paid $100m
2018 salary $20m, 1/6 bonus $7m. Cap hit $27m. Paid $120m

So, this is basically a 3 year deal for the Ravens. Flacco get $60 million, and gives them one year of a low cap, one of a medium, and one of a high. After that, he becomes a huge burden and must restructure. He has essentially ensured he will be their QB forever, because he is uncuttable until 2018 unless they just wanted to tube the 2016 season with a $21 million hit.

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Just about any NFL pact is going to have tiered salary structure that climbs every year. Anquan Boldin's deal is an exception to that, as he had cap hits of approx. 7 to 7.5 million in all 4 yrs of his deal.

I am not suggesting that the money doesn't go up like any other deal. I am suggesting that (according to the sources at the moment) they have set him up with a huge 12 month guarantee, and a "big" amount of the money paid over the first 3 years. They seem to be fine with paying large amounts over the first few years which makes sense given the player's current talent level and ability, then those last couple/few yrs aren't as bad to deal with should they decide to cut them. I am seeing cap hits that seem to level off after the first 3-4 yrs of the deal with all of their top costing players, rather than have their salary continue to climb at the ends of their deals. They are able to save cap money in the last couple/few yrs of all of those deals, which is the object.

Flacco's deal may be tiered to climb accordingly instead of leveling out like their other higher priced players do just for the sake of dealing with a 120 million dollar deal, but they have also tried to avoid the term "backloaded" by true definition's sake. It will climb of course, but they won't have to worry as much about being painted into a corner as many teams normally would, especially with their insisting on the 6th year reasonable salary.

Either way, any 6/120 mega-deal is going to have some gambles, but I'm not falling for the misconception that Ozzie Newsome and the Ravens front office have no idea what they're doing. That is incorrect.

Per PFT:

"Regardless of the money paid on the front end, the Ravens most likely will have insisted on a sixth year with a cap number that translates to a franchise tender (based on the provision guaranteeing the franchise player a 20-percent raise) that the Ravens would be able to fit under the cap, come 2019."

Several quarterbacks have signed at the MARKET rate of $20M a year. We are simply objecting to their strategy of backloading which result in dead monies over $20M.

Denver has a more honest approach. They pay Peyton $20M a year, with a cap hit of $20M a year.

PatsFaninAZ said:

I am going to guess around a $40 million signing bonus, which is $7 million a year to the cap. To keep it low, you pay him zero this year in salary. After that it's time to pay the piper. My guess: about $8 million in salary next year, $12 million in 2015, and $20 million each of the three years after that.

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I think when you consider the fact that he'll have cap hits in approx. the low to mid 20's during the peak of the deal (like most of their higher pricer players are set up) which would be in 2016, 2017 etc it will be much more reasonable than what it may seem at the moment considering it's only 2013.

Every year these QBs keep raising the bar higher and higher. What happens when players like Aaron Rodgers, Eli Manning, and all of the young guys under their rookie contracts (Kaepernick, RG3, Luck, etc) need new deals at that time?

You don't expect their aav's to rise accordingly? By the 2016 season, I would expect many QBs to be in the 26-27 aav range.

In 2008 Roethlisberger (a decent comparison on many levels to Flacco) signed an 8/102 pact, which was considered enormous at the time. How does that look 5 yrs later?

supafly said:

Saints fans do not "hate" Drew Brees. I'd like to know why you think that?

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I wouldn't use the word hate, but I think there was a lot of lost respect there. A lot of Saints fans, especially now in response to Brady's deal, were very upset that Brees said money wasn't a big deal and that he'd do what he needed to do to help the team and then held out for every last dollar, not even accepting a deal that would have made him the highest paid QB, but wanting more than that.

mgteich said:

Several quarterbacks have signed at the MARKET rate of $20M a year. We are simply objecting to their strategy of backloading which result in dead monies over $20M.

Denver has a more honest approach. They pay Peyton $20M a year, with a cap hit of $20M a year.

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So again, after reading this quote--what exactly makes you think that they hugely "backloaded" this deal? And what makes you think that their front office's approach to their higher priced players is that much worse than what goes on here in NE?



"Per the source, the Ravens likely will pay out significant cash in the first 12 months, and likewise in the first three years. That’s the precedent they set in contracts given to players like running back Ray Rice, linebacker Terrell Suggs, and defensive lineman Haloti Ngata.

Regardless of the money paid on the front end, the Ravens most likely will have insisted on a sixth year with a cap number that translates to a franchise tender (based on the provision guaranteeing the franchise player a 20-percent raise) that the Ravens would be able to fit under the cap, come 2019."


Take a look at their high priced guys. Most are set up in the same way (which is expected) to where they pay significant money over the first 3-4 yrs, which leaves them an out for the last couple/few yrs of those deals. How is this considered to be backloading or bad practice? If you still have an out for cutting your high priced guys like Suggs, Boldin etc should you choose to based on poorer performance than expected, how would that be bad practice? Cutting Suggs would already save them 2 million this year, and the number rises to 8 million saved next year.

If major deals are set up that allow you to have an out should you choose to take it after the first couple/few years (which is obviously the norm for NFL practices where they'd be almost impossible to cut in the first 2-3 yrs), and you can save significant money be letting them walk, how exactly do you still not hold the cards?

Sciz said:

I wouldn't use the word hate, but I think there was a lot of lost respect there. A lot of Saints fans, especially now in response to Brady's deal, were very upset that Brees said money wasn't a big deal and that he'd do what he needed to do to help the team and then held out for every last dollar, not even accepting a deal that would have made him the highest paid QB, but wanting more than that.

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I think I have 2 thoughts to this:

Every higher priced QB is going to be questioned after the Brady deal, and while there's still a lot of controversy and questions as to how much taking more money now to take less in the future was actually "angelic" of him to do, many fans are going to expect their team's QBs to do similar structures.

If Brees comes back like he should and they have the season that many expect them to, those same fans will be right back on his sack again. We also don't know how much the Brady extension could change the way that any of the deals are done in the future, including restructures/extensions to some current players.

PatsFaninAZ said:

I am going to guess around a $40 million signing bonus, which is $7 million a year to the cap. To keep it low, you pay him zero this year in salary. After that it's time to pay the piper. My guess: about $8 million in salary next year, $12 million in 2015, and $20 million each of the three years after that. If I am close, that's a cap profile like this:

2013 salary $100,000 1/6 bonus $7m. Cap hit $7 million. Total paid $40m
2014 salary $8m, 1/6 bonus $7m. Cap hit $15m. Paid $48m
2015 salary $12m, 1/6 bonus $7m. Cap hit $19m. Paid $60m
2016 salary $20m, 1/6 bonus $7m. Cap hit $27m. Paid $80m
2017 salary $20m, 1/6 bonus $7m. Cap hit $27m. Paid $100m
2018 salary $20m, 1/6 bonus $7m. Cap hit $27m. Paid $120m

So, this is basically a 3 year deal for the Ravens. Flacco get $60 million, and gives them one year of a low cap, one of a medium, and one of a high. After that, he becomes a huge burden and must restructure. He has essentially ensured he will be their QB forever, because he is uncuttable until 2018 unless they just wanted to tube the 2016 season with a $21 million hit.

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I think the contract will entail a split signing bonus, paid partially at signing and then before year 2 (at the 12 month mark). Also, bonuses can only be prorated for a maximum of 5 years (or the remainder of the contract, whichever is less). This is another reason to think a split bonus will be used. Additionally, I don't think you are allowed to have a 'base salary' that is less than the league minimum salary for the player (which is dependent on veterancy, in Flacco's case I think it is $715,000).

Here is what I think will be a close guess at the structure:

2013 - Signing bonus of $30M
2013 - $1M salary - cap hit $7M
2014 - Option bonus of $20M
2014 - $3M salary - cap hit $13M
2015 - $8M salary - cap hit $18M (First three years' base salaries guaranteed)
2016 - $13M salary - cap hit $23M
2017 - $19M salary - cap hit $29M
2018 - $26.6M salary - cap hit $30.6M

This matches all the 'rumors' about $62M over three years (the article linked to before about a lot of 'cash' in 1st 12 months is satisfied by the 2 big bonuses), and matches the total value and years.

It is backloaded in terms of cap, but not in terms of payments to Joe (due to proration of bonuses.)

Well, my reason for saying it is back heavy is the report on ESPN of a $7 million hit this year. That really isn't compatible with the PFT analysis.

If there is a cap hit of $7 million this year, no matter how you shake it, that's an average of $22.7 million for each of the next 5 years. And there's no way they jump from $7 million to $22.7 million next year. They will make an intermediate step. You can't take a $15m increase in one year with a flat cap for one player.

So, the bottom line is that's at least three years approaching $30 million cap hits or 4 years in the mid $20 millions. There really isn't another way to do the math. If the ESPN report is wrong and the cap hit this year is higher, then they can front load more.

But as a simple matter of math, if the cap hit this year is only $7 m, then, (1) it is impossible for the bonus to be more than $42m, and (2) if it's that high, that's zero salary this year and $80 million over the following 5 years that gets added to 1/6 th of the signing bonus each year.

2012 league minimum base salary for a Flacco is 700 K

supafly said:

I agree with everything up until these final 2 thoughts, Ken.

This is the misconception that I am speaking of....here's the truth:

The ravens have set up Flacco's deal just like their other top deals to players like Suggs, Ngata, and Rice, which are actually a lot more frontloaded than they are backloaded. They agree to pay more up front now, but won't have to deal with unnecessary huge hits down the road, which actually tends to favor their approach, and could arguably be "just as good as ours." For the record I am not stating that they don't tier their contracts out and that the salary doesn't tend to climb like almost all NFL contracts, I'm just saying that when you consider more guaranteed money in the first few years, you can help to better avoid the definition of "backloaded" contracts, and that seems to be exactly what they've done.

From PFT's article:

Getting sixth year on Flacco deal was a win for Ravens | ProFootballTalk


"Per the source, the Ravens likely will pay out significant cash in the first 12 months, and likewise in the first three years. That’s the precedent they set in contracts given to players like running back Ray Rice, linebacker Terrell Suggs, and defensive lineman Haloti Ngata."

It would seem to me that they are okay with paying them more guaranteed money now and overall in the first couple/few yrs, which means that their backs wouldn't be up against the wall as much as many other teams if/when these players need to be moved on from. I'm not claiming that there isn't some gamble as there is with all big deals like this, but I am claiming that these thoughts of BAL having a crappy front office and their demise setting in quickly are extremely overrated, which is an enormous misconception around here lately.

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Normally I'd agree with you that the Ravens would likely "front load" their big contracts, but I think this season it would be tough for them to accomplish that this off season.

While I don't think the Ravens are in Cap hell, they aren't in good shape either. They have a lot of key FA's to deal with and having Flacco with a cap hit over $20MM for 2013 is not going to work for them.

At any rate over the next couple of days the true structure will likely be revealed and we can see who has it right. Right now all we are doing is speculating

NgataTroublemaker said:

I think the contract will entail a split signing bonus, paid partially at signing and then before year 2 (at the 12 month mark). Also, bonuses can only be prorated for a maximum of 5 years (or the remainder of the contract, whichever is less). This is another reason to think a split bonus will be used. Additionally, I don't think you are allowed to have a 'base salary' that is less than the league minimum salary for the player (which is dependent on veterancy, in Flacco's case I think it is $715,000).

Here is what I think will be a close guess at the structure:

2013 - Signing bonus of $30M
2013 - $1M salary - cap hit $7M
2014 - Option bonus of $20M
2014 - $3M salary - cap hit $13M
2015 - $8M salary - cap hit $18M (First three years' base salaries guaranteed)
2016 - $13M salary - cap hit $23M
2017 - $19M salary - cap hit $29M
2018 - $26.6M salary - cap hit $30.6M

This matches all the 'rumors' about $62M over three years (the article linked to before about a lot of 'cash' in 1st 12 months is satisfied by the 2 big bonuses), and matches the total value and years.

It is backloaded in terms of cap, but not in terms of payments to Joe (due to proration of bonuses.)

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Good stuff. I didn't know about the 5 year rule. I bet you're right. But man, paying one player $50 million for one year of play? That blows Brees' $37m out of the water. It seems like you and I get to the same place in years 1-3. It's funny money after that. Your structure makes him even harder to cut.

PatsFaninAZ said:

Well, my reason for saying it is back heavy is the report on ESPN of a $7 million hit this year. That really isn't compatible with the PFT analysis.

If there is a cap hit of $7 million this year, no matter how you shake it, that's an average of $22.7 million for each of the next 5 years. And there's no way they jump from $7 million to $22.7 million next year. They will make an intermediate step. You can't take a $15m increase in one year with a flat cap for one player.

So, the bottom line is that's at least three years approaching $30 million cap hits or 4 years in the mid $20 millions. There really isn't another way to do the math. If the ESPN report is wrong and the cap hit this year is higher, then they can front load more.

But as a simple matter of math, if the cap hit this year is only $7 m, then, (1) it is impossible for the bonus to be more than $42m, and (2) if it's that high, that's zero salary this year and $80 million over the following 5 years that gets added to 1/6 th of the signing bonus each year.

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dude, you've got to be aware that there's a vet minimum salary.
and they don't prorate bonuses past 5 yrs.

PatsFaninAZ said:

Good stuff. I didn't know about the 5 year rule. I bet you're right. But man, paying one player $50 million for one year of play? That blows Brees' $37m out of the water. It seems like you and I get to the same place in years 1-3. It's funny money after that. Your structure makes him even harder to cut.

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Oh yeah, it will be nearly impossible to cut him before 2017. But the cap is likely going to rising, so the numbers are relative.

Plus with the Brees deal, and really any multi-year big deal for an older player, the risk at the back end is increased due to age. When a guy like Brees signs his deal, he will be 38 in his last year, to Flacco's 34. Obviously there is still a performance risk, but the age risk isn't a factor with Flacco's deal.

In short, yes, we are married to the guy, come heck or high water for 5 of the 6 years, realistically speaking. Very risky/scary prospect. But apparently not as scary to Ozzie Newsome as joining the hoard of teams in the NFL that desperately reach over and over again trying to find a QB with the minimum skill set required to win a SB these days.

With league rules and schemes, the demand for QBs has never been higher, and the supply is still relatively limited. The premium paid for Flacco I think had to be paid.

patfanken said:

While I don't think the Ravens are in Cap hell, they aren't in good shape either. They have a lot of key FA's to deal with and having Flacco with a cap hit over $20MM for 2013 is not going to work for them.

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The reported 2013 cap hit is 7 million dollars, which would leave them with approx. 10-11 million dollars at the moment to re-sign a couple of their own. Of course there's also a belief that Jacoby Jones will be dumped, which would save them an additional 4 million dolllars and raise their current cap space (after Flacco's 2013 cap hit) to approx. 15 million again.

I am sure that they'll end up losing a couple of players, but their #1 CB L.Webb is coming back, so Cary Williams shouldn't be too high on their list at his current demands. That one's a no-brainer.

I would imagine that they'll be focusing on one of Ellerbe/Kruger before Ed Reed. As the old saying goes, it's better to let a player walk away a year too early as opposed to a year too late. Reed may very well be replaced with a high draft pick of a safety.

patfanken said:

At any rate over the next couple of days the true structure will likely be revealed and we can see who has it right. Right now all we are doing is speculating

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Yeah, I definitely agree on some level, but it's been widely reported that Flacco will be receiving 62 million+ over the first 3 yrs, so we do have some idea of what some of the specifics are--especially when you add in the 7 million dollar cap hit for 2013.

I think a good common ground would be to admit that any type of big deal like this is going to be somewhat of a gamble, but I also think they addressed some of their concerns with the higher payment in the first 3 yrs, along with the low 2013 cap hit. I don't see it structured any worse than most of the other NFL contracts, so that would be my main point. I think the misconception that they will suddenly be bad or that their team will be gutted are overblown entirely, although like I said I also see the concern for a 120 million dollar contract too.