You be the GM

AndyJohnson said:

Lets be fair, though. When teams ramp up for great success, there can be cap complications after that. Aren't you being kind of hard on the Jets for the fallout from building that go for broke dynasty. After all we are only in good cap shape and they in bad because they spent so much to build that dynasty that has dominated our division......oh..........wait.

Click to expand...

Hahaha true, I forgot about that.

My theory for what pats will do in offseason

So as all of you have heard by now TB's extension gives us even more money to work with. I think the pats did this because they know they only have a few picks in this years draft. Thus they will make most of their damage in FA. I wouldn't be surprised if BB trades out of first round to get a 2nd and a 3rd or 4th. This draft is really deep. You can still get a quality CB S or WR in the 2nd round. This is based off of what i've read from analyst reports and the combine.

Re: My theory for what pats will do in offseason

This is a great thread with volumes of great information and ideas for you to read.

http://www.patsfans.com/new-england-patriots/messageboard/10/1010631-you-gm.html

Just a little housekeeping:

Using the rounded reported numbers, the Brady extension adds $8 million to the cap, which puts it at $20.5 million if the cap is at the high end of what's been reported (That's with the rookies/bonuses paid, but not with any savings for in-season adjustments).

Add a Mankins restructure at $3.6M and note that lloyd isn't on the team until the roster bonus is signed for another net $3.4M for a total of $7M and a grand to total of $28.5M.

Deus Irae said:

Just a little housekeeping:

Using the rounded reported numbers, the Brady extension adds $8 million to the cap, which puts it at $20.5 million if the cap is at the high end of what's been reported (That's with the rookies/bonuses paid, but not with any savings for in-season adjustments).

Click to expand...

mgteich said:

Add a Mankins restructure at $3.6M and note that lloyd isn't on the team until the roster bonus is signed for another net $3.4M for a total of $7M and a grand to total of $28.5M.

Click to expand...

Mankins has not yet been reported as being re-structured and Lloyd has not been cut, so I'm not using either of those as "basement" calls. You, as the GM, can make those calls, though. :thumb:

I just wanted to remind folks what is available. With regard to Lloyd, he is not on the team unless the team pays a $3M option. I am not at all certain that the team will exercise that option and put him on this year's team.

Deus Irae said:

Mankins has not yet been reported as being re-structured and Lloyd has not been cut, so I'm not using either of those as "basement" calls. You, as the GM, can make those calls, though. :thumb:

Click to expand...

QB1 Brady, Tom $13,800,000 35
QB2 Kafka, Mike $555,000.00 25

RB Ridley, Stevan $805,500.00 24
RB Woodhead, Danny $3,300,000.00 28
RB Vereen, Shane $943,950.00 23
RB Bolden, Brandon $485,000.00 23
RB Demps, Jeff $408,666.00 23
FB Larsen, Spencer $875,000.00 28

WR1 Hopkins, DeAndre [R] $608,000.00 22
WR2 Welker, Wes $8,000,000.00 31
WR3 Edelman, Julian $3,300,000.00 26
WR4 Aiken, Kamar $480,000.00 23
WR5 Slater, Matthew $2,266,666.00 27

TE Hernandez, Aaron $4,073,000.00 23
TE Gronkowski, Rob $2,700,000.00 23
TE Ballard, Jake $637,000.00 25
TE Herman, Brad $405,833.00 23

LT1 Solder, Nate $2,329,225.00 24
RT1 Cannon, Marcus $637,687.00 24
DEV Hix, Kyle $408,000.00 24
DEV Long, Kyle [R] $484,333 22

OG Mankins, Logan $10,000,000.00 30
OG Wendell, Ryan $1,015,000.00 26
OG McDonald, Nick $630,000.00 25
C Connolly, Dan $3,333,333.00 30

DT Love, Kyle $1,100,000.00 26
DT Wilfork, Vince $10,600,000.00 31
DT Jenkins, John [R] $482,333.00 28
DT Armstead, Armond $405,000.00 22
DE Jones, Chandler $1,857,302.00 23
DE Bequette, Jake $614,950.00 24
DE Francis, Justin $482,333.00 24
DE Ninkovich, Rob $2,166,666.00 29

LB Benard, Marcus $630,000.00 27
LB Spikes, Brandon $870,000.00 25
LB Hightower, Dont'a $1,755,455.00 22
LB Mayo, Jerod $5,600,000.00 27
LB Fletcher, Dane $620,000.00 26
LB JAG Cover LB $1,500,000.00 ?

FS McCourty, Devin $1,845,000.00 25
SS Wilson, Tavon $958,522.00 22
FS2 Gregory, Steve $2,183,333.00 30
SS3 Ebner, Nate $504,150.00 24
CB1 Talib, Aqib $7,000,000.00 27
CB2 Dennard, Alfonzo $494,462.00 23
CB3 Mathieu [R] (Traded Pick) $494,462.00 23
CB4 Dowling, Ras-I $1,446,572.00 24

P Mesko, Zoltan $1,369,812.00 26
PK Gostkowski, Stephen $3,400,000.00 29
LS Aiken, Danny $555,000.00 24

Notables:
53 Man roster with ~6 million left to get Reed, who would knock off Gregory or the Fullback. Mallet traded for a second round pick, which is immediately traded down for a fifth and a 2014 second. The fifth nets Mathieu.

Pick 1: DeAndre Hopkins, WR
Pick 2: Kyle Long, OT
Pick 3: John Jenkins, DT
Pick 5: Tyrann Mathieu
Pick 7: PS Scrub/Cover LB if we can get one.

Made using the Excel spreadsheet I uploaded in another thread. Go look

DocHoliday said:

QB1 Brady, Tom $13,800,000 35
QB2 Kafka, Mike $555,000.00 25

RB Ridley, Stevan $805,500.00 24
RB Woodhead, Danny $3,300,000.00 28
RB Vereen, Shane $943,950.00 23
RB Bolden, Brandon $485,000.00 23
RB Demps, Jeff $408,666.00 23
FB Larsen, Spencer $875,000.00 28

WR1 Hopkins, DeAndre [R] $608,000.00 22
WR2 Welker, Wes $8,000,000.00 31
WR3 Edelman, Julian $3,300,000.00 26
WR4 Aiken, Kamar $480,000.00 23
WR5 Slater, Matthew $2,266,666.00 27

TE Hernandez, Aaron $4,073,000.00 23
TE Gronkowski, Rob $2,700,000.00 23
TE Ballard, Jake $637,000.00 25
TE Herman, Brad $405,833.00 23

LT1 Solder, Nate $2,329,225.00 24
RT1 Cannon, Marcus $637,687.00 24
DEV Hix, Kyle $408,000.00 24
DEV Long, Kyle [R] $484,333 22

OG Mankins, Logan $10,000,000.00 30
OG Wendell, Ryan $1,015,000.00 26
OG McDonald, Nick $630,000.00 25
C Connolly, Dan $3,333,333.00 30

DT Love, Kyle $1,100,000.00 26
DT Wilfork, Vince $10,600,000.00 31
DT Jenkins, John [R] $482,333.00 28
DT Armstead, Armond $405,000.00 22
DE Jones, Chandler $1,857,302.00 23
DE Bequette, Jake $614,950.00 24
DE Francis, Justin $482,333.00 24
DE Ninkovich, Rob $2,166,666.00 29

LB Benard, Marcus $630,000.00 27
LB Spikes, Brandon $870,000.00 25
LB Hightower, Dont'a $1,755,455.00 22
LB Mayo, Jerod $5,600,000.00 27
LB Fletcher, Dane $620,000.00 26
LB JAG Cover LB $1,500,000.00 ?

FS McCourty, Devin $1,845,000.00 25
SS Wilson, Tavon $958,522.00 22
FS2 Gregory, Steve $2,183,333.00 30
SS3 Ebner, Nate $504,150.00 24
CB1 Talib, Aqib $7,000,000.00 27
CB2 Dennard, Alfonzo $494,462.00 23
CB3 Mathieu [R] (Traded Pick) $494,462.00 23
CB4 Dowling, Ras-I $1,446,572.00 24

P Mesko, Zoltan $1,369,812.00 26
PK Gostkowski, Stephen $3,400,000.00 29
LS Aiken, Danny $555,000.00 24

Notables:
53 Man roster with ~6 million left to get Reed, who would knock off Gregory or the Fullback. Mallet traded for a second round pick, which is immediately traded down for a fifth and a 2014 second. The fifth nets Mathieu.

Pick 1: DeAndre Hopkins, WR
Pick 2: Kyle Long, OT
Pick 3: John Jenkins, DT
Pick 5: Tyrann Mathieu
Pick 7: PS Scrub/Cover LB if we can get one.

Made using the Excel spreadsheet I uploaded in another thread. Go look

Click to expand...

Nice legwork. I have some thoughts however (constructive criticism) if you don't mind reading it:

--Not sure I'd want Kafka to backup Brady just yet, and I would bet an insane amount of money that Mallett is not going to somehow net us a 2nd round pick either. I'm not understanding that, nor did I when it was Brian Hoyer who went from potentially netting us a 2nd to...giving us nothing.

--Your WR corps is insane...so we'd have Welker, an unproven rookie trying to learn the system, Julian Edelman, and...Aiken and Slater?

So basically we'd have Welker and a hope in a rookie, and a hope in Edelman, with a couple of ST's to back them up?

--Demps may not even make the team, and now we've found out that he may choose track over football anyway. No way we'd keep 6 players at the RB position anyway. 4 is more like it, although 5 has been used before.

--You're at least 1-2 players away from having an OL. You only have 8, and out of those 8 we'd have no one at all to back up Solder or Cannon (assuming that he'll even start). We'd need at least one more capable OT who could start, possibly a vet or draft pick. On top of that we'd also need another interior player, as 4 won't cut it when 3 are on the field.

--I don't personally like the choices you have for front seven, and I think you're a little light on number of choices too, possibly 1-2. I think that DL would leave us with the same problems and I don't see much of any interior presence either.

--The secondary is definitely at least 1-2 players light also, as we'd need at least 5 CB/4 S, but maybe even a 10th DB. You currently have 8. (EDIT: Just saw that you left a spot for Reed at the end, sorry)

--I'm not getting all of the love for the "honey badger," especially after benching 225 only FOUR times today (the only other lower mark was 13, and that was a kicker for crying out loud). He doesn't exactly scream to me "quality pick," and it appears as if he's out of shape and possibly lazy in the weight room/training.

I would agree with you that he could be taken in the 5th round though, if just for his upside in ST's.

--I have to be honest, I would be very, very, very disappointed if this were the way that we spent almost 23 million dollars and constructed our 53 man roster. I would also be terribly upset if we only had 5 draft picks and used them in the way that you are suggesting. What needs have been met besides retaining Welker and Talib (who you have 15 million dollars between them as a cap hit?)

I hope that you don't take my comments personally, as I don't mean to be a **** by any means.

supafly said:

Nice legwork. I have some thoughts however (constructive criticism) if you don't mind reading it:

--Not sure I'd want Kafka to backup Brady just yet, and I would bet an insane amount of money that Mallett is not going to somehow net us a 2nd round pick either. I'm not understanding that, nor did I when it was Brian Hoyer who went from potentially netting us a 2nd to...giving us nothing.

--Your WR corps is insane...so we'd have Welker, an unproven rookie trying to learn the system, Julian Edelman, and...Aiken and Slater?

So basically we'd have Welker and a hope in a rookie, and a hope in Edelman, with a couple of ST's to back them up?

--Demps may not even make the team, and now we've found out that he may choose track over football anyway. No way we'd keep 6 players at the RB position anyway. 4 is more like it, although 5 has been used before.

--You're at least 1-2 players away from having an OL. You only have 8, and out of those 8 we'd have no one at all to back up Solder or Cannon (assuming that he'll even start). We'd need at least one more capable OT who could start, possibly a vet or draft pick. On top of that we'd also need another interior player, as 4 won't cut it when 3 are on the field.

--I don't personally like the choices you have for front seven, and I think you're a little light on number of choices too, possibly 1-2. I think that DL would leave us with the same problems and I don't see much of any interior presence either.

--The secondary is definitely at least 1-2 players light also, as we'd need at least 5 CB/4 S, but maybe even a 10th DB. You currently have 8. (EDIT: Just saw that you left a spot for Reed at the end, sorry)

--I'm not getting all of the love for the "honey badger," especially after benching 225 only FOUR times today (the only other lower mark was 13, and that was a kicker for crying out loud). He doesn't exactly scream to me "quality pick," and it appears as if he's out of shape and possibly lazy in the weight room/training.

I would agree with you that he could be taken in the 5th round though, if just for his upside in ST's.

--I have to be honest, I would be very, very, very disappointed if this were the way that we spent almost 23 million dollars and constructed our 53 man roster. I would also be terribly upset if we only had 5 draft picks and used them in the way that you are suggesting. What needs have been met besides retaining Welker and Talib (who you have 15 million dollars between them as a cap hit?)

I hope that you don't take my comments personally, as I don't mean to be a **** by any means.

Click to expand...

Not at all, to very honest (and I don't mean to be a cop out) I was more focused on filling out the roster with the spreadsheet rather than who I was picking. But I also admit I am not a draft guy by ANY means, and rely on scouting reports and the forum chatter on my choices.

Do you disagree with the positions targeted in the draft or the actual players?

You are right about WR. I just don't like what I'm seeing in Lloyd and I will admit I went light on WR because I anticipated Vereen picking up some reps. There is some element of design there - to me, Brady seems like the kind of guy that will play it safe with his WRs. If you let Lloyd stay, the WR will probably never develop. Is this a iron clad fact?

Probably not, but my gut instinct is that Brady (rightly in the short term, wrongly in the long term) is not very patient with rookie WRs. I just find it difficult to believe that this team didn't have the scouting or coaching aptitude to develop a single pure WR in the past five years.

The difference between Hoyer and Mallet is pretty significant. Hoyer was a UDFA with a noodle arm. Mallet's got the measurables Hoyer never did. If Mallet was a 3rd round pick, is it far-fetched that he would go up to a second after two years of development?

I struggled with the DT numbers, but really the overall numbers are 25 Offense, 25 Defense + 3 Specialists. To add a DT, you'd have to away somebody else, and as far as I can see nobody is more expendable on the D. You could argue Demps is gone on O, which means one more DT. I'd be okay with that. In fact, I would rather a good interior presence instead of Reed, but at ~6 mill there really aren't many to be found.

As for the O-line, Long is a highly rated prospect and should be able to start. Certainly he's no less capable than Cannon was backing up Vollmer. Hix has been on the team for a year, and I suppose it depends on his development. Mark Zusevics was a OT in college although I listed him as an OG prospect. He should be able to fill in as well.

I am with you on being short a player, I counted a little too much on Zusevics and Hix being OT and OG players to do double duty. If I had do it again, I'd swap the FB for another interior guy. (Although I think this team badly needs a Fullback).

I don't see the magic FA WR coming in, nor an 'impact' defensive player. At best it is Reed... but then, this may be ignorance.

Thank you truly for your feedback, I will tinker further! :rocker:

EDIT: If you can get Mankins to restructure to free up about $2 million, and if reports of the cap being $124 are correct, it isn't out of the realm of possibility to get Henry Melton @ ~10 million a year. His franchise tender is around 8.

DocHoliday said:

Not at all, to very honest (and I don't mean to be a cop out) I was more focused on filling out the roster with the spreadsheet rather than who I was picking. But I also admit I am not a draft guy by ANY means, and rely on scouting reports and the forum chatter on my choices.

Do you disagree with the positions targeted in the draft or the actual players?

You are right about WR. I just don't like what I'm seeing in Lloyd and I will admit I went light on WR because I anticipated Vereen picking up some reps. There is some element of design there - to me, Brady seems like the kind of guy that will play it safe with his WRs. If you let Lloyd stay, the WR will probably never develop. Is this a iron clad fact?

Probably not, but my gut instinct is that Brady (rightly in the short term, wrongly in the long term) is not very patient with rookie WRs. I just find it difficult to believe that this team didn't have the scouting or coaching aptitude to develop a single pure WR in the past five years.

The difference between Hoyer and Mallet is pretty significant. Hoyer was a UDFA with a noodle arm. Mallet's got the measurables Hoyer never did. If Mallet was a 3rd round pick, is it far-fetched that he would go up to a second after two years of development?

I struggled with the DT numbers, but really the overall numbers are 25 Offense, 25 Defense + 3 Specialists. To add a DT, you'd have to away somebody else, and as far as I can see nobody is more expendable on the D. You could argue Demps is gone on O, which means one more DT. I'd be okay with that. In fact, I would rather a good interior presence instead of Reed, but at ~6 mill there really aren't many to be found.

As for the O-line, Long is a highly rated prospect and should be able to start. Certainly he's no less capable than Cannon was backing up Vollmer. Hix has been on the team for a year, and I suppose it depends on his development. Mark Zusevics was a OT in college although I listed him as an OG prospect. He should be able to fill in as well.

I am with you on being short a player, I counted a little too much on Zusevics and Hix being OT and OG players to do double duty. If I had do it again, I'd swap the FB for another interior guy. (Although I think this team badly needs a Fullback).

I don't see the magic FA WR coming in, nor an 'impact' defensive player. At best it is Reed... but then, this may be ignorance.

Thank you truly for your feedback, I will tinker further! :rocker:

Click to expand...

I enjoy these kind of mindless exercises in the offseason, so you're very likely to see some contribution from me on certain things that you disagree with too.

One thing to keep in mind is that the actual cap hits will be less than the aav salary, so if Welker signs a deal for 4/32 (for example), his cap hit doesn't have to be 8 million dollars. Most teams try to get the proper balance over the life of the deal, so the common thinking here is that Welker wouldn't command much more than a 5.5 to 6 million dollar hit this year; although it would depend on how they set that up. Talib is the same, he probably shouldn't even get 7 million aav if he stays in N.England, let alone a 7 million dollar cap hit. Keeping that in mind, you'll free up some money there, so my guess is that you could retain both of them this year for something in the 10 million dollar range (as far as cap hits go for 2013).

I just think that we'd need a bit more surefire starting capability at the OL spot in case Solder or Cannon were hurt. The ideal situation would be to bring in a guy who could back up both interior/outside, but they don't fall off of trees. I'd assume that one of Zusevics or Hix would be our developmental OL, along with your proposal of the new addition draft pick. Either way, we'll almost certainly need to bring in a FA vet if Vollmer goes as planned.

Last year we saw Belichick bring in a bunch of vet WR's to compete for a spot or a couple of spots. I'd assume that we'll see more of the same, and that we should have some kind of vet WR on the roster in at least one/two spots. Welker and Edelman are fine choices, and I would love to have them back. We also need at least one rookie WR, if not two (if you consider doubling up like we did at TE and RB lately).

Many here also want to see a CB or a S taken in the first 2-3 rounds, but that may/may not happen. I don't think your choice of OT is crazy, although I think it would be a surprise. One could argue that we have bigger priorities, but some should be addressed via FA so one never knows what BB is thinking right?

I think many would like to see some vets brought in for competition on the DL, especially for a stronger interior presence, so that may end up being like WR where we see a bunch of vets brought in. Some we'll be excited about and some we won't. I'm actually not sure if Benard fits in better being considered a DE or a LB, but you could make the same argument that one would with Jones coming out of the draft etc. I think Benard is more of a DE, but I could be wrong.

One more area would be passrush, as names like Dwight Freeny have been brought up. I don't know if that's a possibility or not, but I think we'd all like to see a middle tiered name brought in for a front seven role for sure. The passrush sure could use some addressing.

I think the secondary could be addressed in any number of ways, so everyone will probably have a different opinion on how they'd want to do it. Mine is in the minority where I'd actually probably let Talib go unless it were for a reasonable amount (no more than 6 million aav, and no more than 3 yrs unless the 4th was a dummy year to make the deal look better). I think we could bring in any number of FA's, some bigger names, some smaller named vets--to compete for those spots. My goal would be to improve the entire depth of the CB position, not just chasing down a CB1.

I'm certainly no draftnik myself, although I start becoming more interested in the month of April. Personally I don't like the choice of OT in round 2, and I don't like the big gap between our picks in round 3 and round 7, although you address some on some level with the 5th round that you accumulate from the Mallett deal. That's a subject that I'm not going to agree on, but it hardly matters as the compensation is close enough anyway and it's just a matter of opinions. I'd be very happy to net a 3rd or a 4th. I don't think you can look at it as "we picked him in the 3rd, so we should be able to get something better now." I don't see any proof of that, and there are several better names out there right now for QB-needy teams as it is. Alex Smith, Matt Flynn, Nick Foles, and potentially Carson Palmer (if he refuses the pay cut) would be 4 options that any team would much rather have than Mallett. He is a huge gamble with no NFL experience or scouting tape to base him off of.

The recent rumors of today are that the team is not actively shopping him, but that could change at any point of course. The rumors to CLE are baseless in my opinion, as the front office in CLE has rejected that talk so far, and Mallett does not fit into their W.Coast offensive style they are employing. I just don't see anyone giving up anything better than a 4th at this point, but I hope I am wrong.

Take the 4th for Mallett. Really.

A trade chip to draft up in the 2nd round.

I would be hesitant to let Mallet go even for a second.

bump

QUOTE=AndyJohnson;3380923]So we have 'spend' 4 mill of the 15.5 getting to a full roster.
BTW, I neglected TE, but we are all set there, with the exception of a 4th TE that should be a net of next to zero, and special teams is all under contract.

To get here, we are left with these issues

QB- none
RB- none
TE- none
WR- We have Lloyd a draft pick and JAGs
OL- We have Cannon starting and little depth

DL- Pass rush is lacking
LB- cover guy?
CB- Need a #1
S- If McCourty stays, we drafted a S to add to the mix of Wilson and Gregory for the #2 and #3.

We have 11.5 mill to spend.

1) The best way to improve this defense is the pass rush. I suggest a philosophy shift (one that has already started btw) to a greater concern about pass rush on first down, and to fill the field with pass rushers in sub.
I am actually feeling OK about the inside pass rush, assuming Armstead can do what he is being portrayed as. Putting him next to VW in the base should create more pressure up the middle and Armstead, Cunningham, Francis may give us a decent inside rush in sub. VW needs to come off the field more often. Move Jones to LDE, and add a pass rush specialist to play RDE. Freeney has been mentioned, but there are many options at the right price.
This also allows us to move Ninkovich back to backup LB and backup DE.
This will cost net 4 mill, (3 years 19mill, sb of 9, salaries of 1, 4, 5).
7.5 mill left

WR. I've already accounted for 2mill, so the Welker contract of 4/38 with 14 up front and salaries of 2,4,7,11) which will cost us 5.5 in 2013, or 3.5 more than what I have accounted for.

4 mill left

OL. Thomas can come back if cheap, we can add a guy in the Gallery range. Over and above the 1 mill net I spent to add JAGs, if we add these type of players with 2 mill each first year hits, it costs another 3 mill.

1 mill left, secondary to finish.

This makes it clear to me that we need to redo Bradys deal and possibly Wilforks. I've seen reports that we could free up as much as 10mill that way, so it will be plenty to handle the secondary, and leave cushion for any cap hits I may have underestimated.

WITHOUT redoing Brady and maybe Wilfork:
We must move McCourty to corner and have a lineup of:
CB- McCourty, Dennard, rookie, Dowling
S- Gregory, Wilson, rookie

If we do the restucture(s) we can afford to sign the best corner on the market, to go:
CB1, Dennard, Rookie, Dowling
McCourty, Gregory, Wilson, rookie

or the best S on the market flipping CB1 and Mccourty.

If its actually 10 mill, we may be able to afford BOTH giving us
FA CB, McCourty, Dennard, Rookie
FA S, Gregory, Wilson, Rookie

That is the preferred solution.[/QUOTE]

Avenger said:

I would be hesitant to let Mallet go even for a second.

Click to expand...

Then you are absolutely nuts. You do that in without hesitation.



What I would do, just a quick run through without details...
-Resign Welker
-Cut Lloyd
-Resign Edelman
-Resign Branch, Thomas, Hooman, Scott, Arrington
-Sign Randy Starks
-Sign Ed Reed
-Sign Talib/Grimes
-Trade Mallet for a 3rd and a 5th

1st round - Vacarro (safety)
2nd round - Austin (wide out)
3rd round - Quinton Patton (wideout)
3rd round - draft Cornellius Carradine (DE)
5th round - trade for future 4th

bump...........

AndyJohnson said:

Rather than signing big contract guys until the money runs out, I will look at it from the reverse perspective, that is, after the basics are handled, what is left for the big money guys.
I'll break it down into 3 posts, offense, defense, then conclusion.
I'll start with what we have, filling in 'jags' or draft choices (I will use WR, S, DL as the top 3 picks for the sake of example, and not heavily rely on any in year 1 because we don't know who will be on the board at 29, and therefore which position we will add a player who can contribute)

OFFENSE
QB- All set, no moves needed
RB- Ridley, Vereen, Bolden, Demps. I'm good with this group, and I think Woodhead is now a luxury because Vereen can fill his role.
WR- We need a boatload. Lloyd staying, IMO is a no brainer. Add a draft choice. Here we must spend at least 2 mill (note here that I am using the 51 rule, so that is really 3 mill in first year cap hits, and it is for JAGs). in first year cap hits to just fill in bodies. This will require more money because Lloyd a pick and 2 JAGs won't cut it.
OL- 4 of 5 starters under contract. As is, Cannon becomes the starter, Zusevics and McDonald are the only players under contract. 2 JAG OL to fill the roster equals net cost of 1mill. At the least we need either a starter at RT or a strong backup than just a JAG.

So by filling in the offense with JAGs at OL and WR, we have spent 3 mill of cap space. When we revisit and say, sign a FA WR, we will only address the INCREASE over what the JAG cost we already accounted for is.

Click to expand...

bump..........

AndyJohnson said:

DEFENSE

DL- If we played with todays roster we would start:
Ninkovich-Wilfork-Love/Armstead-Jones with Deaderick, Armstead/Love, Cunningham, Francis and Forston as backups. With Vega, Benard and Bequette as long shots.
Armstead, Cunningham, and possibly Francis figure to be inside pass rushers in sub packages.
No moves are needed here, but an upgrade to the pass rush is on the list of wants.

LB- Mayo, Spikes, Hightower, with Fletcher as the backup is the core. Tarpinian is under contract as the special teamer (resiging White,or someone else is a costfree change). With Ninkovich and Cunningham able to fill in here if needed, we would need a JAG at the minimum in the least to fill out the spot. Net cost due to rule of 51 is zero.

CB- I am assuming Dennard will be available. Worst case is that he will get a short suspension but precedent says he should not.
If we started the season today (assuming we count McCourty at S, which for the purpose of 'Jagging out' the roster is fine) we would have Dennard, Dowling and Williams. Fill in with a minimum salary guy and a cheap nickle and we spend a net of 2mill

S- As of now we have McCourty, Gregory, Wilson, Ebner, plus we are counting a draft choice here.

After reviewing this, I am changing the DL draft pick to corner, to fill the nickel spot, so I'm going to lower the extra DB to a 1mill cap hit to just add 1 guy who should make the team (1.5 first year hit) to Dennard, Dowling, rookie. Clearly this is, at this point a place holder for the big money addition at corner.

Total fill out the roster spending on D is 1mill

Click to expand...

Andy's plan is a reasonable one. He give a plan if we were to gain ten million from a Brady extension. Add a Mankins restructure and we have enough left to sign Woodhead, since we now he is more valuable.
==================
Andy has us picking up Welker, free agent DE, CB, and a S, all major acquisitions. He also has us adding an inexpensive coverage LB, and a backup RT (or even a mid-level starter).
Of course, we'd have normal dozen defensive backs and wide receivers in camp to compete.

Arrington, Thomasn Edelman are not key free agents and would need to be re-sign or replaced for small money.

The draft would likely consist of a WR, CB and a S.

This plan works for me.
=================

I might be willing to pay a bit more for Woodhead, Edleman, Thomas and Arrington than andy, but that really isn't a significant difference between us.
=====
ONE ADDITION
I would NOT exercise our option on Lloyd. $5M (I think he has a workout bonus) seems a bit much. I would take the one million dollar dead hit this year and next and use the $4M of cap room for another wide receiver, hopefully someone who could stretch the field.

A DRAFT THOUGHT
BEFORE THE DRAFT
WR: Welker, free agent (or Lloyd), Edelman (or sub), free agent, Ebert.
CB: free agent, Dennard, Arrington (or sub), Cole (or sub) and Dowling.
S: free agent, McCourty, Wilson, Gregory

We definitely need to draft a wide receiver or two and a defensive back or two. I'm not at all sure at the desired mix. That will depend a lot on who we pick up in free agency. A lot will also depend on what the team expects from Dowling and Wilson.

mgteich said:

bump

QUOTE=AndyJohnson;3380923]So we have 'spend' 4 mill of the 15.5 getting to a full roster.
BTW, I neglected TE, but we are all set there, with the exception of a 4th TE that should be a net of next to zero, and special teams is all under contract.

To get here, we are left with these issues

QB- none
RB- none
TE- none
WR- We have Lloyd a draft pick and JAGs
OL- We have Cannon starting and little depth

DL- Pass rush is lacking
LB- cover guy?
CB- Need a #1
S- If McCourty stays, we drafted a S to add to the mix of Wilson and Gregory for the #2 and #3.

We have 11.5 mill to spend.

1) The best way to improve this defense is the pass rush. I suggest a philosophy shift (one that has already started btw) to a greater concern about pass rush on first down, and to fill the field with pass rushers in sub.
I am actually feeling OK about the inside pass rush, assuming Armstead can do what he is being portrayed as. Putting him next to VW in the base should create more pressure up the middle and Armstead, Cunningham, Francis may give us a decent inside rush in sub. VW needs to come off the field more often. Move Jones to LDE, and add a pass rush specialist to play RDE. Freeney has been mentioned, but there are many options at the right price.
This also allows us to move Ninkovich back to backup LB and backup DE.
This will cost net 4 mill, (3 years 19mill, sb of 9, salaries of 1, 4, 5).
7.5 mill left

WR. I've already accounted for 2mill, so the Welker contract of 4/38 with 14 up front and salaries of 2,4,7,11) which will cost us 5.5 in 2013, or 3.5 more than what I have accounted for.

4 mill left

OL. Thomas can come back if cheap, we can add a guy in the Gallery range. Over and above the 1 mill net I spent to add JAGs, if we add these type of players with 2 mill each first year hits, it costs another 3 mill.

1 mill left, secondary to finish.

This makes it clear to me that we need to redo Bradys deal and possibly Wilforks. I've seen reports that we could free up as much as 10mill that way, so it will be plenty to handle the secondary, and leave cushion for any cap hits I may have underestimated.

WITHOUT redoing Brady and maybe Wilfork:
We must move McCourty to corner and have a lineup of:
CB- McCourty, Dennard, rookie, Dowling
S- Gregory, Wilson, rookie

If we do the restucture(s) we can afford to sign the best corner on the market, to go:
CB1, Dennard, Rookie, Dowling
McCourty, Gregory, Wilson, rookie

or the best S on the market flipping CB1 and Mccourty.

If its actually 10 mill, we may be able to afford BOTH giving us
FA CB, McCourty, Dennard, Rookie
FA S, Gregory, Wilson, Rookie

That is the preferred solution.

Click to expand...

[/QUOTE]

A few thoughts, working under the assumption that when all is said and done, we'll be looking at about 30 mil in cap space.

To me, the major issues on this team are at WR, and the defensive backfield.

Free Agency

-I don't think we can trust this team to develop WRs. I think the only real success story we can claim in the Belicheck era is Branch, and even that was a pretty mild one. If Lloyd goes, his production has to be replaced, and there's nothing in the team's past ten years that suggests a rookie could come close to doing that.

My strategy comes down to this: the difference between a high draft pick and a quality free agent would be more marked at this position than any other on the team. Especially this year.

I don't believe this team is willing to accept a backwards step in the passing game. I think if we deem even Lloyd a failure at his production/cost, then it's time to stop bargain hunting. Sign Welker with a per year avg of 7-8 mil, which would be better than Marques Colston/Reggie Wayne/Antonio Brown got last year. Design the contract to give the team flexibility after 3 years, since that'll be about when Gronk's and Hernandez's cap numbers begin to swell.

After that, go get another weapon in free agency. Wallace, Bowe, Jennings, Hartline... whichever fits best. I picture a corp of Welker, FA, a draft pick, and then whoever.

-I think we need 3 DBs, at least one of which is a vet. I don't think Talib has done enough to prove worthy of a long term commitment. Remember what happened with Leigh Bodden? Talib reminds me too much of that nightmare, only he's much riskier.

I'd like to see a vet come in on the short term, a one or two year commitment, max. Maybe that's Reed at safety (seems most likely), maybe it's Woodson, Grimes, Asomugha, or whoever else at corner.

-I think, looking at the market, we have to live with our front 4. Jones, Ninkovich, Cunningham, Francis, and Bequette at DE, and Wilfork, Love, Deaderick, and Armstead at DT. Maybe I like the potential of the two biggest question marks (Armstead and Bequette) more than most.

-I'd like if Vollmer stayed, at around 7 mil per year, but everyone else so far omitted I think is pretty replaceable. (Woodhead, Edelman, Arrington, Chung, etc).

-Keep Mallett. I don't think another pick this year helps us much. We need a backup, and he could be even more valuable as a trade commodity next year.

-Can this all fit under the cap? I'm not writing the contracts, but it seems doable. Welker's cap hit could be around 6-7 mil, Vollmer and the FA DB maybe 5 mil each. Throw in the FA WR at a first year number of anywhere between 5-8, and that still leaves room.

Draft

I think we need long term youth at WR and a pair of DBs. Since draft position is fluid, I'll just rank priority.

1st CB (I like the athleticism of Jamar Taylor and Robert Alford)
2nd WR (This player would have a hard time seeing the field in the next couple years, so long term potential or special teams value would be nice. In a dream world, this guy would make Welker expendable within a couple years)
3rd DB (Ideally, this would be a nickelback or box safety. Honey Badger's situation kind of recalls Dennard's and Janoris Jenkins' last year, and they proved big time value in their rookie seasons)

So, that'd be:

WR: Welker, FA, 2nd rounder, then whoever. 4th WR doesn't have much value on this roster.

DBs: FA, McCourty, Gregory, Dennard, Wilson, Dowling, Ebner, a 1st rounder, and a 3rd rounder. 9 DBs total seems about right to me.

After that, whatever holes are left on the roster go to late picks, UFAs, and JAGs.

Thoughts?

With $30M, all you end up is with Welker, a top wide receiver and a defensive back (probably Reed). This is easily doable. I guess that the rest of the money would be for minor adds. I think that we can afford at least on more impact player on defense, in addition to what you have.

Our choice last year was Lloyd. Belichick can afford more this year. I agree that Lloyd's replacements would be a free agent.

HomerSchooled said:

A few thoughts, working under the assumption that when all is said and done, we'll be looking at about 30 mil in cap space.

To me, the major issues on this team are at WR, and the defensive backfield.


So, that'd be:

WR: Welker, FA, 2nd rounder, then whoever. 4th WR doesn't have much value on this roster.

DBs: FA, McCourty, Gregory, Dennard, Wilson, Dowling, Ebner, a 1st rounder, and a 3rd rounder. 9 DBs total seems about right to me.

After that, whatever holes are left on the roster go to late picks, UFAs, and JAGs.

Thoughts?

Click to expand...