If Wes Welker Walks, Patriots Have Some Serious Work to Do

KontradictioN said:

I'd like to see the team keep Welker AND draft a big bodied receiver that can threaten every level, and specializes in doing work outside the hashes. Think of the personnel packages we could put together. Think of how dangerous this team would be in the red zone.

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Lets say your scenario happens. The Patriots resign Welker and spend draft resources on a outside receiver.

We hit the playoffs, start playing defenses with a pulse, and our offense for whatever reason (key player injury, not clicking, etc..) isn't putting up points.

Other team marches down the field and because the Patriots don't have crap but JAGs on defense they score some points. Meanwhile, our offense is left stupefied because they're getting locked down and now there's a hole in the defensive wall.

I don't understand how Patriot fans have become so offensive minded. We won championships on defense. Now everyone wants to blow cash on Welker and draft picks on receivers. Screw that, shore up the defense. Let one of the best QBs of all time work his magic with less.

I'm tired of going into the playoffs with, "one of the best offenses of all time!!!" and then getting crushed by a defense that has a pair of balls. And then everyone here blames the defense. You can't blame the defense when management put all their marbles into the offensive basket. It's not working, time to move on. Cya Welker!

Helmet2Helmet said:

Lets say your scenario happens. The Patriots resign Welker and spend draft resources on a outside receiver.

We hit the playoffs, start playing defenses with a pulse, and our offense for whatever reason (key player injury, not clicking, etc..) isn't putting up points.

Other team marches down the field and because the Patriots don't have crap but JAGs on defense they score some points. Meanwhile, our offense is left stupefied because they're getting locked down and now there's a hole in the defensive wall.

I don't understand how Patriot fans have become so offensive minded. We won championships on defense. Now everyone wants to blow cash on Welker and draft picks on receivers. Screw that, shore up the defense. Let one of the best QBs of all time work his magic with less.

I'm tired of going into the playoffs with, "one of the best offenses of all time!!!" and then getting crushed by a defense that has a pair of balls. And then everyone here blames the defense. You can't blame the defense when management put all their marbles into the offensive basket. It's not working, time to move on. Cya Welker!

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Find me what players we can add with 15 million dollars in cap space to get this defense to allow 14 points per game in the playoffs because that is what itll take to win without some offensive changes the way this offense fades in the playoffs.

nzahir said:

If welker leaves, all the pats have to do is re sign tavon austin, a speedy deep threat who can also play slot. I think hernandez, gronk, austin, lloyd, edelmen, ballard, and stallworth are pretty good options. This team will have an average wr group, but the best te trio by far. The pats also have good rbs and a good o line. I would rather spend the money on the secondary, pass rush, and o line.

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This pretty much epitomizes the "get rid of Welker" arguments. Just re-sign Tavon Austin and Welker is easily replaced. Snap, just like that, problem solved, Hall of Famer easily replaced. They are a bright bunch. Re-sign Tavon Austin.................lmao

One key point from my article was this:

One of the more glaring areas was his 3rd down production, as last season the veteran receiver accounted for 30 of the 92 completions Tom Brady had. *The next closest player was Danny Woodhead who had 13, followed by Aaron Hernandez (12), Brandon Lloyd (11) and Rob Gronkowski (11).

Welker also had nearly double the amount of first downs, accounting for 21 of the 73 third down conversions they had through the air. *The next closest players were Gronkowski (11) and*Hernandez (10).

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This is a situational team and 3rd down is an area where Welker was huge. That's a lot of planning that will be required to make up for his loss if they let him walk. For anyone who thinks Edelman will easily step into that role, I think that's a bit of a pipe dream.

If they lose him, they'll need to bring in a couple of guys who can help carry some of the load who can get open and make plays. But as it stands right now with their current group, they definitely don't have that if Welker walks away, and they're definitely not equipped to deal with injuries. Welker masked that problem more than people here are willing to give him credit for, and his role in the offense isn't as easy as "all they need to do is..."

I understand the financial aspect of what they're dealing with. But as I wrote this is probably the most pivotal decision they're facing considering these are the final 3-5 years (hopefully at least that) of the Brady/Belichick era.

Helmet2Helmet said:

Lets say your scenario happens. The Patriots resign Welker and spend draft resources on a outside receiver.

We hit the playoffs, start playing defenses with a pulse, and our offense for whatever reason (key player injury, not clicking, etc..) isn't putting up points.

Other team marches down the field and because the Patriots don't have crap but JAGs on defense they score some points. Meanwhile, our offense is left stupefied because they're getting locked down and now there's a hole in the defensive wall.

I don't understand how Patriot fans have become so offensive minded. We won championships on defense. Now everyone wants to blow cash on Welker and draft picks on receivers. Screw that, shore up the defense. Let one of the best QBs of all time work his magic with less.

I'm tired of going into the playoffs with, "one of the best offenses of all time!!!" and then getting crushed by a defense that has a pair of balls. And then everyone here blames the defense. You can't blame the defense when management put all their marbles into the offensive basket. It's not working, time to move on. Cya Welker!

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A couple of things became pretty clear to me after reading this post. The first is that you have no clue whatsoever about college scouting and what is coming out in the draft re: defensive needs. The second is that you're pretty lost as to how the salary cap works. First, the team could absolutely afford Welker for three more seasons at $8M per year. Do that, and you've secured the best slot receiver in football for three more seasons while having the two stud TE's and Lloyd. Secondly, I've advocated that we can at least have a shot at drafting Matt Elam, and might be able to trade down in the process to secure more picks. Since you probably have no idea who Matt Elam is, I'll just tell you that he's one of the two best safety prospects in the draft. He's a hard hitter, good run supporter, and is good in coverage as well.

Elsewhere in the secondary, the team can either franchise Talib, can explore options in FA like Grimes, DRC, etc., or can look into the draft. Signing Welker likely means the franchise tag for Talib. There, we would have Talib and Dennard lining up across from one another for at least one more year. After that, the team can either re-sign Arrington, or explore replacing him with a nickel CB prospect, like Mathieu, late in the draft. After the selection of Elam in the first round, the team can begin hunting it's big bodied, athletic WR as early as the second round. There should be plenty of them available. At this point, you've likely secured Welker for a reasonable cost, you've secured a CB1, you've gotten your physical safety prospect who should be ready to start from the get-go for chump change on a rookie contract, and you've gotten the WR that the offense needs to lessen the dependence on the two TE sets as well as help the red zone offense should Gronk go out again for the same chump change. The secondary would be finished later in the draft at the very latest and you still have a number of picks to use on the DT/DE, coverage LB, and RG prospects you need while still having the luxury to pick based on BPA.

That's what I can advocate. But, judging by your other posts, you'll probably try to reject that using a flawed line of reasoning because your expectations are completely unrealistic.

Obviously Welker is a key, key player. But the notion that he's irreplaceable is crazy. If there's one thing that we've learned over the years with this team, it's that they tend to survive the loss of "irreplaceable" players very well -- dating back to Lawyer Milloy, through Damien Woody and Randy Moss. Even in areas where the results of letting guys go were mixed, like the Seymour trade or the decision to let Samuel and Branch go, the team survived and kept winning in every case.

I'm in the camp that would like to see them invest on the defensive side of the ball and let Brady learn to cope with losing one of the toys in his personal sandbox -- I liked this team better when they surprised you with how many points they scored in big games with no offensive skill players of note, as opposed to recent years, when they keep surprising you with how few points they score in big games with so many weapons.

KontradictioN said:

That's what I can advocate. But, judging by your other posts, you'll probably try to reject that using a flawed line of reasoning because your expectations are completely unrealistic.

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Hahaha, says the guy that just tried to prove a point with pure speculation and what if scenarios. My expectations are more realistic than the scenario you just spurted out. Keep on believing though if that makes you feel better.

Gotta love an Armchair GM trying to claim what is realistic / unrealistic. Try to remember what chair your sitting in.

Helmet2Helmet said:

Hahaha, says the guy that just tried to prove a point with pure speculation and what if scenarios. My expectations are more realistic than the scenario you just spurted out. Keep on believing though if that makes you feel better.

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NEM, please point out which of the scenarios I floated that are unrealistic and state why they are...

1. Attempt to sign Welker to something approaching 3/$24M.

2. Drafting Matt Elam with either our first, or in the second after trading down.

3. The mere thought of trading down.

4. Franchising Talib.

5. Exploring CB options in FA.

6. Re-signing Arrington.

7. Drafting someone for the "star" role late in the draft.

8. Selecting a WR as early as the second round.

Gotta love an Armchair GM trying to claim what is realistic / unrealistic. Try to remember what chair your sitting in.

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Same chair you are. But I'm not the guy sitting here expecting us to put together a defense that's going to hold high powered playoff opponents to under 13 points on a consistent basis when such a high percentage of our cap is aimed toward an offensive position. What I gave you, in essence, is a subjectively low cost way at keeping Welker, improving the offense at positions of need, and improving the defense at positions of need.

KontradictioN said:

NEM, please point out which of the scenarios I floated that are unrealistic and state why they are...

1. Attempt to sign Welker to something approaching 3/$24M.

2. Drafting Matt Elam with either our first, or in the second after trading down.

3. The mere thought of trading down.

4. Franchising Talib.

5. Exploring CB options in FA.

6. Re-signing Arrington.

7. Drafting someone for the "star" role late in the draft.

8. Selecting a WR as early as the second round.



Same chair you are. But I'm not the guy sitting here expecting us to put together a defense that's going to hold high powered playoff opponents to under 13 points on a consistent basis when such a high percentage of our cap is aimed toward an offensive position. What I gave you, in essence, is a subjectively low cost way at keeping Welker, improving the offense at positions of need, and improving the defense at positions of need.

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So you want to spend a top pick on a safety 2 years in a row without even giving Wilson a chance to fail? Seems like poor utilization of assets unless you plan to move McCourty back to CB. IMO Wilson did nothing in his rookie year to say he couldn't make e 2nd year leap into a starting role.

Jax said:

So you want to spend a top pick on a safety 2 years in a row without even giving Wilson a chance to fail? Seems like poor utilization of assets unless you plan to move McCourty back to CB. IMO Wilson did nothing in his rookie year to say he couldn't make e 2nd year leap into a starting role.

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The Patriots were still going with Steve Gregory at the end of the year. Not saying that it's damning for Wilson, but I don't see anything there to make me believe that they wouldn't select a guy like Elam or Vaccarro if either were available. Actually, I can see the Patriots trying to slide Wilson into the nickel CB role should they let Arrington walk and not want to invest a draft pick in it. Wilson played a little CB in college and, from what I remember, was actually pretty solid in press.

EDIT: Also, to expand, I don't think that Wilson and McCourty's playing styles compliment one another very well. You ideally want a guy who is going to clean someone's clock back there with the rangy McCourty. It was hoped that Chung could provide that, but he turned out to be somewhat of a disaster in coverage.

If we were so lucky as to draft a safety who we projected as a reasonable nfl starter by the end of camp AND thought Wilson was also ready to start, then we would move McCourty back to corner and move on. OR, we'd find roles for three solid safeties. There are plently of reps for three qualified safeties.

Drafting a safety does NOT mean giving up on Wilson. It means that this is a great draft for safeties. Would it really be that terrible for the patriots if Wilson and a draftee did so well that they kept Gregory off the field (or even off the team)?

I still think that the most likely safeties for this year will be McCourty, Gregory, Wilson and a rookie. Camp, health and the preseason will determine how many reps everyone gets in Game One.

Jax said:

So you want to spend a top pick on a safety 2 years in a row without even giving Wilson a chance to fail? Seems like poor utilization of assets unless you plan to move McCourty back to CB. IMO Wilson did nothing in his rookie year to say he couldn't make e 2nd year leap into a starting role.

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KontradictioN said:

The Patriots were still going with Steve Gregory at the end of the year. Not saying that it's damning for Wilson, but I don't see anything there to make me believe that they wouldn't select a guy like Elam or Vaccarro if either were available. Actually, I can see the Patriots trying to slide Wilson into the nickel CB role should they let Arrington walk and not want to invest a draft pick in it. Wilson played a little CB in college and, from what I remember, was actually pretty solid in press.

EDIT: Also, to expand, I don't think that Wilson and McCourty's playing styles compliment one another very well. You ideally want a guy who is going to clean someone's clock back there with the rangy McCourty. It was hoped that Chung could provide that, but he turned out to be somewhat of a disaster in coverage.

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Wilson can bring the wood, but more importantly he's played in the box as a SS in college.

mgteich said:

If we were so lucky as to draft a safety who we projected as a reasonable nfl starter by the end of camp AND thought Wilson was also ready to start, then we would move McCourty back to corner and move on. OR, we'd find roles for three solid safeties. There are plently of reps for three qualified safeties.

Drafting a safety does NOT mean giving up on Wilson. It means that this is a great draft for safeties. Would it really be that terrible for the patriots if Wilson and a draftee did so well that they kept Gregory off the field (or even off the team)?

I still think that the most likely safeties for this year will be McCourty, Gregory, Wilson and a rookie. Camp, health and the preseason will determine how many reps everyone gets in Game One.

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Very valid argument I'd just rather they invest the limited picks in WR, CB and DT.

Deus Irae said:

Honestly, I don't see why they can't see their way to offering 3 years, 24-27 mill, with about 20 guaranteed and a 5-8-11 to 6-9-12 split. Unless we've been misled by the reporting (certainly not impossible), doing that last year would probably have avoided the situation they've gotten themselves in now, where keeping him on 2 franchise tags will end up costing over 20 million anyway, and would only be for 2 seasons. They could have had more money available to them both last season and this season with an offer like that.

When it comes to the top players, this team really needs to stop with the "penny wise, pound foolish" crap.

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Well, Wes Welker reportedly turned down a two-year deal worth $16 million last year, or at least something similar to that.

If I'm Welker, I'd want to follow the money at this point in my career. He is basically the best slot receiver in the NFL and has redefined the position. He's been WAY underpaid for years...until he was franchised last year. I don't see how anyone can argue with that. He was easily worth at least twice as much as what he was getting paid for like 5 years. That should at least be in his agent's head during negotiations...it's a new day. He's totally proven his worth. Franchising him again probably wouldn't sit well with him, if they do that.

He's not getting any younger, and this is probably his last chance at a huge payday. Gotta be a 4-5 year deal IMO. He probably doesn't want to **** around with a two-year deal or something like that...even a three-year deal.

I'm a big fan of Wes Welker. There is not much bad you can say about the guy. If the Patriots don't do right by him, somebody else will. That's the bottom line. The Pats need to pony up, or they are going to lose him. That would be a big deal.

If Welker accepts a shorter-term contract for less money than he would get on the open market, he'd either be one of the best team-players that I've ever seen, or incredibly stupid. I'm not sure which.

This is a reasonable position. I suspect that we will have four early draft picks after a trade down. I fear that Belichick already has made his additions to the DL: Armstead and Vega. We could pick up a free agent. I am certainly fine with us drafting a DT.

Jax said:

Very valid argument I'd just rather they invest the limited picks in WR, CB and DT.

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KontradictioN said:

A couple of things became pretty clear to me after reading this post. The first is that you have no clue whatsoever about college scouting and what is coming out in the draft re: defensive needs. The second is that you're pretty lost as to how the salary cap works. First, the team could absolutely afford Welker for three more seasons at $8M per year. Do that, and you've secured the best slot receiver in football for three more seasons while having the two stud TE's and Lloyd. Secondly, I've advocated that we can at least have a shot at drafting Matt Elam, and might be able to trade down in the process to secure more picks. Since you probably have no idea who Matt Elam is, I'll just tell you that he's one of the two best safety prospects in the draft. He's a hard hitter, good run supporter, and is good in coverage as well.

Elsewhere in the secondary, the team can either franchise Talib, can explore options in FA like Grimes, DRC, etc., or can look into the draft. Signing Welker likely means the franchise tag for Talib. There, we would have Talib and Dennard lining up across from one another for at least one more year. After that, the team can either re-sign Arrington, or explore replacing him with a nickel CB prospect, like Mathieu, late in the draft. After the selection of Elam in the first round, the team can begin hunting it's big bodied, athletic WR as early as the second round. There should be plenty of them available. At this point, you've likely secured Welker for a reasonable cost, you've secured a CB1, you've gotten your physical safety prospect who should be ready to start from the get-go for chump change on a rookie contract, and you've gotten the WR that the offense needs to lessen the dependence on the two TE sets as well as help the red zone offense should Gronk go out again for the same chump change. The secondary would be finished later in the draft at the very latest and you still have a number of picks to use on the DT/DE, coverage LB, and RG prospects you need while still having the luxury to pick based on BPA.

That's what I can advocate. But, judging by your other posts, you'll probably try to reject that using a flawed line of reasoning because your expectations are completely unrealistic.

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Wait your going to resign Welker and franchise Talib? Where's this magic cap space coming from ? Your wahzoo?

Uncle Meat said:

I'm a big fan of Wes Welker. There is not much bad you can say about the guy. If the Patriots don't do right by him, somebody else will. That's the bottom line. The Pats need to pony up, or they are going to lose him. That would be a big deal.

If Welker accepts a shorter-term contract for less money than he would get on the open market, he'd either be one of the best team-players that I've ever seen, or incredibly stupid. I'm not sure which.

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What Welker turned down was a 2/16 extension to his last remaining year on his lower end deal. Once that happened the front office took their 2/16 offer off of the table.

One would assume that Welker will get anywhere from 8-9 million aav, and that is exactly why many here have proposed deals in the range of 3/24 to 3/27, because it would match what he will get on the open market. Welker is going to get paid nicely. What he probably isn't going to get though, is a 10 million dollar aav like Wallace, VJax, etc received. Those are reserved for the young, speedy, up and coming wideouts of the league.

If a team does offer Welker 10 million or so per year, it will most likely have a dummy year thrown on the end to increase the numbers and make it look better, but that probably won't be the actual amount of the deal. Where they'll catch his attention though is coming up on the guaranteed money, and it is starting to appear that N.England just doesn't value him as highly as some others will.

supafly said:

What Welker turned down was a 2/16 extension to his last remaining year on his lower end deal. Once that happened the front office took their 2/16 offer off of the table.

One would assume that Welker will get anywhere from 8-9 million aav, and that is exactly why many here have proposed deals in the range of 3/24 to 3/27, because it would match what he will get on the open market. Welker is going to get paid nicely. What he probably isn't going to get though, is a 10 million dollar aav like Wallace, VJax, etc received. Those are reserved for the young, speedy, up and coming wideouts of the league.

If a team does offer Welker 10 million or so per year, it will most likely have a dummy year thrown on the end to increase the numbers and make it look better, but that probably won't be the actual amount of the deal. Where they'll catch his attention though is coming up on the guaranteed money, and it is starting to appear that N.England just doesn't value him as highly as some others will.

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Sure, but Welker turning that 2-year offer down leads one to believe that he wants a long-term deal. If the Patriots don't offer him at least $8-$9 million per-year, they are not making an honest effort to retain him, like you suggest. Like I say, if I'm Welker, I want at least a 4-year deal that is stable...none of these phony back-loaded contracts where it's almost a given that you don't see that money on the back-end. Of course, I can't assume to know what Welker wants, but that's my 2 cents.

Of course, there are major points of contention like signing bonuses and guaranteed money as well. That's obvious too.

I mean, a guy like Santonio Holmes is making $9 million per year. He's actually set to make $12.5 million this year. Pretty funny to me to consider that along with Sanchez's contract. Stevie Johnson averages $7.25 million per year, and he's about average if that.

But Welker is a slot guy that moves the chains, and he does that consistently...has done that for years. He's a totally different animal than wideouts that make the big bucks. The strange part about these deliberations is that he is going to set the market at his position, basically. There is not really a set frame of reference to draw from when considering the worth of the best slot receiver in the league, which is what Welker is IMO.

If I'm Welker, I explore the market and get some offers and use them in negotiations with the Patriots. This is just a simple business process. 'Cuz who really knows what he is worth on the open market? I don't. Slot receivers and all that...it'll be interesting to find out, and we will find out unless the Pats slap the franchise tag on him again...that's unlikely though.

Welker's agent, David Dunn, is one of the top 5 agents in the business. I would imagine by the end of the combine he will know what Wes market is and which teams are genuinely interested. The backstory at every combine is agents mingling with coaches and GM's who all happen to be in Indy to monitor the combine because they are representing or interested in the participants. That provides great cover for discussing other potential deals, be that extensions for existing players or the market for UFA. That is where Pioli made his move for Cassel, who hadn't signed his tag yet but did so quickly thereafter. A new rule being implemented this season allows UFA players and their agents to talk to teams for 3 days prior to the official opening of free agency at the start of the league year on March 12th. It was done to mitigate the fact that players and agents tended to have contact during that period anyway even though technically that was considered tampering. It's too hard to police for the league to really bother trying...

Dunn may also talk to NE while both sides are at the combine. However the fact that the sides hadn't talked at all as recently as two weeks ago according to Wes, would lead me to believe the team has drawn it's line in the sand. And it's the same line they refused to cross last July as the negotiation period with franchise tagged players passed. Unless Welker's market turns out to be 3 years $6-7M with $12-14M guaranteed he's gone.

Uncle Meat said:

Sure, but Welker turning that 2-year offer down leads one to believe that he wants a long-term deal. If the Patriots don't offer him at least $8-$9 million per-year, they are not making an honest effort to retain him, like you suggest. Like I say, if I'm Welker, I want at least a 4-year deal that is stable...none of these phony back-loaded contracts where it's almost a given that you don't see that money on the back-end. Of course, I can't assume to know what Welker wants, but that's my 2 cents.

Of course, there are major points of contention like signing bonuses and guaranteed money as well. That's obvious too.

I mean, a guy like Santonio Holmes is making $9 million per year. He's actually set to make $12.5 million this year. Pretty funny to me to consider that along with Sanchez's contract. Stevie Johnson averages $7.25 million per year, and he's about average if that.

But Welker is a slot guy that moves the chains, and he does that consistently...has done that for years. He's a totally different animal than wideouts that make the big bucks. The strange part about these deliberations is that he is going to set the market at his position, basically. There is not really a set frame of reference to draw from when considering the worth of the best slot receiver in the league, which is what Welker is IMO.

If I'm Welker, I explore the market and get some offers and use them in negotiations with the Patriots. This is just a simple business process. 'Cuz who really knows what he is worth on the open market? I don't. Slot receivers and all that...it'll be interesting to find out, and we will find out unless the Pats slap the franchise tag on him again...that's unlikely though.

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Sometimes players don't come back for a couple of reasons. One being they feel they've been disrespected by their former team and the other being teams entering negotiations with them don't want to be used to fuel the market and essentially do what Indy/Polian did with Adam and make their offer contingent on the player not shopping it. Basically a take it or leave it offer. Teams are reluctant to tie themselves up in the process with one player unless they are fairly certain of a positive outcome because during that process a number of other alternatives or options come off the board. NE knows this first hand as they believed they had FA onboard, as in the case of Mason back in 2005, only to find out second hand that he was just using them to get the best deal he could out of Baltimore.