Report: Welker won't be franchised

Helmet2Helmet said:

That's easy!

Playoffs:
Giants in 2007
Jets in 2010
Giants in 2011
Ravens in 2012

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I don't think the Patriots are going to keep Welker myself, but holy cow is this "logic" mind-numbingly stupid.

Deus Irae said:

It's not clear that Brady's money is best spent on Brady, or that any player's money, on any team, in any sport, is best spent on that player. That's why GMs get paid.

It's clear, however, that people here have lost their mind with the Welker stuff, largely because of a couple of dropped passes and a couple of blown leads by the defense. It's embarrassing as hell to see Patriots fans falling to the intellectual level of Jets fans, but it is, admittedly, funny as hell at the same time.

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Well, as I've said now a bunch of times, I'm in the keep Welker camp and I agree that people who think he stinks or whatever are insane. Dude is incredible and phenomenally productive.

But my larger point stands. It is not a guarantee that the Patriots TEAM will be worse if they spend Welker's money elsewhere. I am convinced the offense won't be as good, but I do think it would still be among the very best in the league. And if that $11 million is spent on defensive improvements, it's a real possibility that the defensive improvement will be greater than the offensive slippage, and thus it would be worth it to lose Welker.

But as you said, this is why GMs get paid the big bucks. And fortunately, the Patriots tend to make more right decisions than most other teams.

ivanvamp said:

Ivan, I'm on the record as saying I prefer to keep Welker because I think he's great and I think the offense is better with him.

But it is not clear that using the roughly $11 million it would take to keep Welker is best spent on Welker instead of defensive help, for example.

The goal is to have the best TEAM. Losing some on offense (which I think is certain to happen without Welker) may be tolerable if there is greater improvement on defense. In other words, if losing Welker costs the Patriots 4 points a game on offense, but adding a stud defender improves the defense by 5 points a game, then overall the team is better.

I don't know how likely such a scenario is, but it sure is theoretically possible (and within the realm of reason) to lose Welker and yet have a better *team*.

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Ivanvamp, I don't like the idea of franchising Welker again but i would do it if that was the only way to keep him here. I favor giving him a 4 year deal with 20 guaranteed, and I believe that anything from 32-36 total would get it done. He is well worth that money and it would seriously reduce the cap hit. beyond that i really don't see how they get better as a team when it comes to using their money in free agency while trying to fill the hole that losing him creates. The players who are available in free agency who could help the Patriots are simply going to cost much more than most of them are worth. I believe that when free agency is over Welker is going to stand out as the best deal of any player signed and it would be foolish of the Patriots to let some other team reap that value when they have the inside track on it.

The idea should be how to get better, and allowing Welker to leave makes them significantly worse and only creates a huge hole to fill, and that is no way to start an offseason. So far the only arguments for letting him walk have their existing receiving corps radically ramping up all of their current production to absurd leveles, and that is not a formula for getting better but really just pipedreams. Re-sign Welker and draft a deep threat high in this draft, then use free agency and the draft to bolster their defensive backfield, pass rush, and interior OL. I don't like the idea of Vollmer leaving but I think that he is going to be overpaid in free agency and don't see them as being able to match what he will get elsewhere, same goes for Talib. Unfortunately free agency is a very difficult way to improve because players become way overvalued and overpaid, so the best way to improve is to keep your best players and improve through the draft and shrewd free agent acquisitions, and that is what I'm hoping the Patriots do.

Deus Irae said:

It's not clear that Brady's money is best spent on Brady, or that any player's money, on any team, in any sport, is best spent on that player. That's why GMs get paid.

It's clear, however, that people here have lost their mind with the Welker stuff, largely because of a couple of dropped passes and a couple of blown leads by the defense. It's embarrassing as hell to see Patriots fans falling to the intellectual level of Jets fans, but it is, admittedly, funny as hell at the same time.

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You're going to insult another user for their age and level of schooling and then spout off that schoolyard bull?

"If your opinion isn't the same as mine it's wrong! It's the same level as Jets fans!"

No wonder why you have so many message board posts. With that ego you probably have trouble making any meaningful relationships in real life. I feel sorry for you man.

MoLewisrocks said:

First off you're comparing offenses operating in a different era.

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Which actually strengthens my point. Brady's passing numbers in 2005 - which wasn't nearly as much a passing era as it is now around the league - were similar to what they were in 2012, when their passing offense was much more lethal and high octane. Which means that it is a good bet that Brady will still be a very effective passing QB even without Welker.

MoLewisrocks said:

Second off, while that defense wasn't ranked much higher than present company, it was loaded with veteran talent. But when all was said and done, it went 10-6 and we got our asses kicked in Denver for the second time that season in the second round of the playoffs by a team QB'd by freakin' Jake Plummer. If not for then JAGS might have been one and done. Is that what you'd have them aspire to be able to replicate?

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Um, no. I would have them aspire to win the Super Bowl.

By the way, the Patriots (with Welker) lost by more to the Ravens this year than they did to Denver in 2005 without Welker.

MoLewisrocks said:

There is an old adage that always rings true in the NFL. If you're not getting better you're getting worse. I for one don't want to test it...again. And at this point I am not willing to make the assumption that Gronkowski will be available come post season or that Hernandez will be effective in his absence, let alone tasked with replacing a chunk of Welker's production out of the slot. Or that Ballard coming off ACL surgery and a year removed from the field will slide in to this offense any better than Shiancoe or Fells or Hoohoo did... Nor am I willing to assume that Ridley will become more than the product of an effort to run when they could as opposed to when they had to or that Vereen will ever live up to his potential to the extent they actually allow him to play in important games unless given no alternative. And maybe not even then.

This offense is still missing something, and subtracting Welker from the equation just means they would be missing more. The defense has been an issue for some time now. Welker had nothing to do with that. Belichick waited too long to transition as former stars aged out. Better drafting and smarter mid level FA signings would go a long way in bridging the gaps he essentially created that also have nothing to do with Welker.

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It is true that Welker has nothing to do with the defense, seeing as though he's a WR. However, they have a limited amount of cap space. Every dollar spent on Welker is a dollar not spent somewhere else. There are some really good defensive players available in free agency this year. It is not totally clear to me that the $$ that would be allocated to Welker are not better used on a stud defender.

And I say this as someone who wants the Pats to keep Welker.

ivanvamp said:

Well, as I've said now a bunch of times, I'm in the keep Welker camp and I agree that people who think he stinks or whatever are insane. Dude is incredible and phenomenally productive.

But my larger point stands. It is not a guarantee that the Patriots TEAM will be worse if they spend Welker's money elsewhere. I am convinced the offense won't be as good, but I do think it would still be among the very best in the league. And if that $11 million is spent on defensive improvements, it's a real possibility that the defensive improvement will be greater than the offensive slippage, and thus it would be worth it to lose Welker.

But as you said, this is why GMs get paid the big bucks. And fortunately, the Patriots tend to make more right decisions than most other teams.

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Who do you see them signing with that money ion free agency that fills that gaping hole and makes them significantly better? When I look at free agency I see players like Mike Wallace, Jake Long, Dwayne Bowe, and Sean Smith who are expecting huge money, and I wouldn't give it to them. Welker on the other hand is probably going to be under 50 million and is guaranteed high production and durability.

My point is this Ivanvamp, when you look at production, durability, consistency, reliability, and the paydays that will be realized, there are going to be a bunch of players who don't match Welker in those categoires who are going to make much more than him, and if you base value on pay versus production then Welker is going to be the best deal on the market, and that the money cannot be spent better than that.

If you have ideas about how they get better using that money I will look at them and respond but so far i have not seen anything from anyone that seriously addresses the issue.

ivanvamp said:

Well, as I've said now a bunch of times, I'm in the keep Welker camp and I agree that people who think he stinks or whatever are insane. Dude is incredible and phenomenally productive.

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First, my apologies. In reading my post again, I see that it could be taken as an attack on your post and/or you. That was not my intent. My intent was to note the folly of a surprising number of people who are out there with the "good, get rid of Welker" stuff. Now, onward...

ivanvamp said:

But my larger point stands. It is not a guarantee that the Patriots TEAM will be worse if they spend Welker's money elsewhere. I am convinced the offense won't be as good, but I do think it would still be among the very best in the league. And if that $11 million is spent on defensive improvements, it's a real possibility that the defensive improvement will be greater than the offensive slippage, and thus it would be worth it to lose Welker.

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It's no guarantee, but let's be honest here. This was the youngest (I believe) defense in the NFL last year. There should be real improvement there, regardless of what moves are made.

Jones/Ninkovich/Spikes/McCourty/Dennard/Hightower are all players who should be improving at the positions they play, from experience alone (Ninkovich's role change is why he's on the list).

Moving on from Welker doesn't mean that they improve the defense. When you look at the cap space, there is basically enough room to sign 2 of the 3 "big free agents" if they don't use the tag on either and they backload the deals. After that, the money's gone. So, whether it's keeping Welker and Talib, or it's letting one/both of them go and having to find replacements, there's not going to be a lot of cash for big name layouts, absent some cap shenanigans.

Basically, letting Welker walk probably accomplishes almost nothing positive, because replacement issues are going to be a huge question mark that the team will either have to overspend to deal with or decide to approach next season with hope and prayer as their only real options.

ivanvamp said:

But as you said, this is why GMs get paid the big bucks. And fortunately, the Patriots tend to make more right decisions than most other teams.

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Yes, but this is one area where they've screwed the pooch with some regularity, and that's the concern for me. It's (almost) never who you cut loose that's the problem. Replacements are usually the problem, and this team has had its fair share of issues there when they've had to replace the top players on the fly.

ivanvamp said:

It is true that Welker has nothing to do with the defense, seeing as though he's a WR. However, they have a limited amount of cap space. Every dollar spent on Welker is a dollar not spent somewhere else. There are some really good defensive players available in free agency this year. It is not totally clear to me that the $$ that would be allocated to Welker are not better used on a stud defender.

And I say this as someone who wants the Pats to keep Welker.

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If Welker walks then they have the worst WR corps in football, that has to be addressed first and foremost. How much will that cost?

Who are the defenders they sign and how much do they sign for? Welker should be at 4-32/36 range, which defenders can they get for that money and how do they make the Patriots minus welker a better team than signing welker for that does?

Helmet2Helmet said:

You're going to insult another user for their age and level of schooling and then spout off that schoolyard bull?

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I didn't insult the user for his age. I asked what level of school he was in, in order to answer him at an appropriate level.

Helmet2Helmet said:

"If your opinion isn't the same as mine it's wrong! It's the same level as Jets fans!"

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No, different opinions are great. Reading them, and doing follow up/research as a result, is a large part of how I form and modify my own opinions. Dumbass stuff, on the other hand, is just dumbass stuff.

Helmet2Helmet said:

No wonder why you have so many message board posts. With that ego you probably have trouble making any meaningful relationships in real life. I feel sorry for you man.

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Don't feel sorry for me, slick. I've lived a pretty damned good life, for the most part, and I'm reasonably sure that'll continue going forward. I post a lot because I love sports, I stopped following baseball when they robbed me of the World Series, I can multitask, I read very quickly and am a fast typer, and I've been fortunate enough to be able to work from home (or from a laid back company) for much of the past 10 years.

Now, you have a nice day.

Deus Irae said:

First, my apologies. In reading my post again, I see that it could be taken as an attack on your post and/or you. That was not my intent. My intent was to note the folly of a surprising number of people who are out there with the "good, get rid of Welker" stuff. Now, onward...

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I'd like to echo this. Ivanvamp is a poster who makes good points and serious posts about this and other issues, and my more caustic responses are in no way intended for the posters who are trying to have a serious and reasonable discussion of this issue, but are intened for the idiots who talk pure garbage about Welker and spew complete nonsense about this issue.

Ivan said:

Ivanvamp, I don't like the idea of franchising Welker again but i would do it if that was the only way to keep him here. I favor giving him a 4 year deal with 20 guaranteed, and I believe that anything from 32-36 total would get it done. He is well worth that money and it would seriously reduce the cap hit. beyond that i really don't see how they get better as a team when it comes to using their money in free agency while trying to fill the hole that losing him creates. The players who are available in free agency who could help the Patriots are simply going to cost much more than most of them are worth. I believe that when free agency is over Welker is going to stand out as the best deal of any player signed and it would be foolish of the Patriots to let some other team reap that value when they have the inside track on it.

The idea should be how to get better, and allowing Welker to leave makes them significantly worse and only creates a huge hole to fill, and that is no way to start an offseason. So far the only arguments for letting him walk have their existing receiving corps radically ramping up all of their current production to absurd leveles, and that is not a formula for getting better but really just pipedreams. Re-sign Welker and draft a deep threat high in this draft, then use free agency and the draft to bolster their defensive backfield, pass rush, and interior OL. I don't like the idea of Vollmer leaving but I think that he is going to be overpaid in free agency and don't see them as being able to match what he will get elsewhere, same goes for Talib. Unfortunately free agency is a very difficult way to improve because players become way overvalued and overpaid, so the best way to improve is to keep your best players and improve through the draft and shrewd free agent acquisitions, and that is what I'm hoping the Patriots do.

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We both agree that Welker would do very well anywhere and that the Patriots' offense is better with Welker. That is not the issue here (between us, anyway). But the decision to keep him is not in a vacuum. They only have one franchise tag available, and they have to weigh the relative merits of tagging/keeping Welker/Vollmer/Talib, thinking through what's available in free agency, what the draft looks like in areas of need, etc.

I could see them tagging Talib, letting Wes and Vollmer go, then signing an Ed Reed or Woodson, a pass rusher (Freeney or Avril perhaps) and a non-stud WR. Then use Edelman as the primary WR opposite Lloyd. I think the offense would take a hit but I think the defense would probably be a good deal better.

All depends on how they want to play it. Your plan above, though, is quite reasonable.

Deus Irae said:

First, my apologies. In reading my post again, I see that it could be taken as an attack on your post and/or you. That was not my intent. My intent was to note the folly of a surprising number of people who are out there with the "good, get rid of Welker" stuff. Now, onward...



It's no guarantee, but let's be honest here. This was the youngest (I believe) defense in the NFL last year. There should be real improvement there, regardless of what moves are made.

Jones/Ninkovich/Spikes/McCourty/Dennard/Hightower are all players who should be improving at the positions they play, from experience alone (Ninkovich's role change is why he's on the list).

Moving on from Welker doesn't mean that they improve the defense. When you look at the cap space, there is basically enough room to sign 2 of the 3 "big free agents" if they don't use the tag on either and they backload the deals. After that, the money's gone. So, whether it's keeping Welker and Talib, or it's letting one/both of them go and having to find replacements, there's not going to be a lot of cash for big name layouts, absent some cap shenanigans.

Basically, letting Welker walk probably accomplishes almost nothing positive, because replacement issues are going to be a huge question mark that the team will either have to overspend to deal with or decide to approach next season with hope and prayer as their only real options.



Yes, but this is one area where they've screwed the pooch with some regularity, and that's the concern for me. It's (almost) never who you cut loose that's the problem. Replacements are usually the problem, and this team has had its fair share of issues there when they've had to replace the top players on the fly.

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This exactly how I see it. Time to get the dogs out and enjoy the rest of the day. Hopefully the Patriots get a deal done with Welker soon so this can be put to rest.

Ivan said:

If Welker walks then they have the worst WR corps in football, that has to be addressed first and foremost. How much will that cost?

Who are the defenders they sign and how much do they sign for? Welker should be at 4-32/36 range, which defenders can they get for that money and how do they make the Patriots minus welker a better team than signing welker for that does?

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If Talib walks than we are right back where were at DB.

I say bring them both back but that would cost all of the cap space we have or close to it.

If the money were equal I would prefer Wes.

Bottom line is we start FAency with 18 Mil or so to spend and there is room to create more space should they restructure some guys.

My opinion is that with or without Wes they will find a way to use that money to field a competive team for the SB. And I think it is just as viable aproach to spend alot of that on the devil you know in Wes or the Devil you dont in whatever you can find on D with that money.

Should they not be able to come up with a deal the pressure will be on to come up with viable options at WR and to actually use that money wisely elsewhere and of course there is a risk. But there is also a risk in using alot of your available space on one guy and not having much to improve the D with.

ivanvamp said:

We both agree that Welker would do very well anywhere and that the Patriots' offense is better with Welker. That is not the issue here (between us, anyway). But the decision to keep him is not in a vacuum. They only have one franchise tag available, and they have to weigh the relative merits of tagging/keeping Welker/Vollmer/Talib, thinking through what's available in free agency, what the draft looks like in areas of need, etc.

I could see them tagging Talib, letting Wes and Vollmer go, then signing an Ed Reed or Woodson, a pass rusher (Freeney or Avril perhaps) and a non-stud WR. Then use Edelman as the primary WR opposite Lloyd. I think the offense would take a hit but I think the defense would probably be a good deal better.

All depends on how they want to play it. Your plan above, though, is quite reasonable.

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Talib is the one i wouldn't tag under any circumstances, he simply hasn't earned it.

Ivanvamp, i'm more than happy to talk about this more later with you, like i said I respect your position on it even if i don't agree, my issue is with the sh.ttalkers who don't know anything about football and talk pure crap about Welker. The guy has played at an unbelievable level since coming here, and they have had the best offense in NFL history since he came here, that's just a fact. If they had an an unbelievable WR corps minus Welker then those arguing to let him walk would be on better ground, but without him they very well may have the worst WR corps in football, and that is not what you want Brady working with next season or for the rest of his career. right now i see no viable way they improve next season by letting welker go, and i haven't seen so much as one reasonable plan for doing so, and i want them to win more rings before brady retires. imo that is the number one goal, and keeping welker is critical to it. they still need a deep threat even if they l;et him go, but they shouldn't trade out one for the other.

got to go before the dogs go nuts.

Deus Irae said:

First, my apologies. In reading my post again, I see that it could be taken as an attack on your post and/or you. That was not my intent. My intent was to note the folly of a surprising number of people who are out there with the "good, get rid of Welker" stuff. Now, onward...

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Ivan said:

I'd like to echo this. Ivanvamp is a poster who makes good points and serious posts about this and other issues, and my more caustic responses are in no way intended for the posters who are trying to have a serious and reasonable discussion of this issue, but are intened for the idiots who talk pure garbage about Welker and spew complete nonsense about this issue.

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Deus, you and I have had some go-rounds on other things, but I didn't take anything you said here in a negative way. Same with you, Ivan. It's all good.

Deus Irae said:

It's no guarantee, but let's be honest here. This was the youngest (I believe) defense in the NFL last year. There should be real improvement there, regardless of what moves are made.

Jones/Ninkovich/Spikes/McCourty/Dennard/Hightower are all players who should be improving at the positions they play, from experience alone (Ninkovich's role change is why he's on the list).

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I agree. I think the defense should be better simply due to additional experience. But I do think that losing Talib would be significant. He *easily* blanketed Boldin the first two series of the AFCCG, and there's no way Boldin goes off like he did if Talib is there, and the Patriots probably end up playing in the Super Bowl.

Deus Irae said:

Moving on from Welker doesn't mean that they improve the defense. When you look at the cap space, there is basically enough room to sign 2 of the 3 "big free agents" if they don't use the tag on either and they backload the deals. After that, the money's gone. So, whether it's keeping Welker and Talib, or it's letting one/both of them go and having to find replacements, there's not going to be a lot of cash for big name layouts, absent some cap shenanigans.

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If they let Welker go, that's about an $11 million commitment that they no longer have. I think another thread had them with about $18 million total available. Use a good chunk of that on Talib, and they still have enough money for an Ed Reed and maybe even a Dwight Freeney. Freeney at this point could be used just as a 3rd down pass rusher and I think he still could be effective at that, and Reed and McCourty would be a much better safety duo than McCourty and Gregory. Then let the young guys develop and the defense suddenly has a LOT more oomph.

Deus Irae said:

Basically, letting Welker walk probably accomplishes almost nothing positive, because replacement issues are going to be a huge question mark that the team will either have to overspend to deal with or decide to approach next season with hope and prayer as their only real options.

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Well it's true that replacements would be a huge question mark, no doubt about that. But at some point Welker is going to be gone. They will have to figure out how to improve the team without him at some point.

Deus Irae said:

Yes, but this is one area where they've screwed the pooch with some regularity, and that's the concern for me. It's (almost) never who you cut loose that's the problem. Replacements are usually the problem, and this team has had its fair share of issues there when they've had to replace the top players on the fly.

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True.

Deus Irae said:

It's no guarantee, but let's be honest here. This was the youngest (I believe) defense in the NFL last year. There should be real improvement there, regardless of what moves are made.

Jones/Ninkovich/Spikes/McCourty/Dennard/Hightower are all players who should be improving at the positions they play, from experience alone (Ninkovich's role change is why he's on the list).

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Just to be an ass its all hope here.

Ivan said:

If Welker walks then they have the worst WR corps in football, that has to be addressed first and foremost. How much will that cost?

Who are the defenders they sign and how much do they sign for? Welker should be at 4-32/36 range, which defenders can they get for that money and how do they make the Patriots minus welker a better team than signing welker for that does?

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Reed and Freeney. Freeney at his age is limited to passing situations, and I bet he'd be very effective in that role. Reed isn't what he used to be but he's a big upgrade over Gregory. A secondary of Talib, Dennard, McCourty, and Reed, with an improved pass rush thanks to Freeney, along with the continued development of the young guys, would be pretty sweet.

Ivan said:

Talib is the one i wouldn't tag under any circumstances, he simply hasn't earned it.

Ivanvamp, i'm more than happy to talk about this more later with you, like i said I respect your position on it even if i don't agree, my issue is with the sh.ttalkers who don't know anything about football and talk pure crap about Welker. The guy has played at an unbelievable level since coming here, and they have had the best offense in NFL history since he came here, that's just a fact. If they had an an unbelievable WR corps minus Welker then those arguing to let him walk would be on better ground, but without him they very well may have the worst WR corps in football, and that is not what you want Brady working with next season or for the rest of his career. right now i see no viable way they improve next season by letting welker go, and i haven't seen so much as one reasonable plan for doing so, and i want them to win more rings before brady retires. imo that is the number one goal, and keeping welker is critical to it. they still need a deep threat even if they l;et him go, but they shouldn't trade out one for the other.

got to go before the dogs go nuts.

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From a pure WR stand point only Lloyd does not look great but that ignores the best Duo of TEs in the league possibly ever to pair up. The cuboard is by no means bare without Wes.

Hopefully both sides can come to something that allows us to reup Talib and still have money to spend elsewhere but if they cant we will still be a really good team and the moves made with that money will have to all hit.

ivanvamp said:

...If they let Welker go, that's about an $11 million commitment that they no longer have. I think another thread had them with about $18 million total available. Use a good chunk of that on Talib, and they still have enough money for an Ed Reed and maybe even a Dwight Freeney. Freeney at this point could be used just as a 3rd down pass rusher and I think he still could be effective at that, and Reed and McCourty would be a much better safety duo than McCourty and Gregory. Then let the young guys develop and the defense suddenly has a LOT more oomph.

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Jason's got them down around $11 million after paying off all bonuses and draft picks. As for Welker, the $11 million number is only an issue if we're talking tag. While the Patriots should have signed him to a 3 year deal last year, it's still possible to do that this year. If they worked the deal out properly, they could probably get his hit down to about $5 million without doing too much damage to the year 3 cap, and with the obvious ability to give a reasonable extension if needed/earned at that time. Then, if you added in a Mankins restructure (about $3 million), they'd still have somewhere around $8 million to work with.

Freeney's numbers indicate that he's done (admittedly, that's not proof, but it's a pretty convincing indication to me), and Reed is not going to come to New England unless the Patriots make an insane offer, if his words mean anything. IMO, the team would be much better served by drafting a safety at the end of round one, and then letting him work his way into the lineup at whatever pace it takes to have him ready for the big time when the playoffs come around.

ivanvamp said:

Well it's true that replacements would be a huge question mark, no doubt about that. But at some point Welker is going to be gone. They will have to figure out how to improve the team without him at some point.

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I agree, but that doesn't mean that time should be now. I'd rather not have a repeat of ILB2005.

ivanvamp said:

Reed and Freeney. Freeney at his age is limited to passing situations, and I bet he'd be very effective in that role. Reed isn't what he used to be but he's a big upgrade over Gregory. A secondary of Talib, Dennard, McCourty, and Reed, with an improved pass rush thanks to Freeney, along with the continued development of the young guys, would be pretty sweet.

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We would still need a few WRs now too but this is certainly the type of thinking I am getting at too. The exact pieces don't neccessarily have to be the same. in this plan the trick would be finding a cheaper WR and truly finaly getting back over the hump on D with whatever pieces are added and there is risk here. The other approach is the opposite your Offense will likely be one of the best in NFL history again but will your D get over the hump with little room to add to it?

it is much easier to sit here and say bring back Wes and that would be my priority but I cant repeat myself enough when I say I trust there is enough in place already to overcome the loss of Wes and possibly improve enough elsewhere to get over the hump.