A "Reasonable" Draft evaluation on Pats DB or why BB so bad at drafting WRs andd CBs?

re: A "Reasonable" Draft evaluation on Pats DB or why BB so bad at drafting WRs andd CBs?

I don't understand the hand wringing over Wallace. Have they ordered a bronze bust for him that I missed?

re: A "Reasonable" Draft evaluation on Pats DB or why BB so bad at drafting WRs andd CBs?

Steve:Section 102 said:

I don't understand the hand wringing over Wallace. Have they ordered a bronze bust for him that I missed?

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Wallace is a legitimate gripe about a missed opportunity. However, it's clear that Tate was a reach pick, and he was at the end of a long run of picks in that draft. It's one thing to talk about Tate as a bust, which he ended up being, and to ponder the "what if" of a flier pick (and I have done just that). It's another to act as though choosing Tate over Wallace was some horrible betrayal of the fan base.

Just my $.02

Re: A "Reasonable" Draft evaluation on Pats DB and WR picks the last 10 years.

supafly said:

I can't possibly agree with the following:

McCourty as a "C"---he has played very well in 2/3 seasons, and in both of those seasons he has warranted a 1st round pick status. I would have definitely given him a solid "B."

Ellis Hobbs as a "C+"---while Hobbs was never going to be a good #1 CB, he was extremely effective as a CB2 or CB3 at the worst. This isn't even taking into account his ST play either. I would move that up to a solid "C."

Meriweather as a "C-"---he freelanced and played out of position, and he did not warrant BOTH probowl votes, but he certainly deserved one of them in my opinion, and during his first 3 seasons of 2008-2010 only Troy Polamalu had more turnovers in the league. Meriweather deserves a solid "C" also.

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I appreciate your fair and astute evaluations. Whereas my thread was my opinion only and I did the extended research, the likely suspects on this forum have commented and are always "I am better than you" negative anyway. I guess I could say that then they would be wrong then, wouldn't they! Their opinion does not hold any more weight than yours or mine.

Perhaps my "reasonable" is not their opinion. I backed up what I said with facts as they are. 'Binkie" law is not a feature here. In fact I said that Chad Jackson was one that I wished had worked out. I never cared for Hobbs as he was too small to cover bigger WR, but he always played even when hurt. He played though injuries but he still had them, therefor I said he was brittle. He made some plays.

Merriweather is an interesting case. The fact is he did not deserve his first round selection at the end of the day because he never played up to that. Even his own team mates mocked his Pro Bowl selection. He was a square peg in a round hole here. He was just a miss as a third rounder or he would still be here. Almost the same story as Chung as a high pick.

My theory enhances the fact that yes, a first round Draft choice is supposed to evolve within a certain time frame, into an elite NFL player. As someone pointed out, that could be 96 players. Yes again I concur, that is correct in assumption as the top 100 could be categorized as potential elite players, but Teams choose lesser deserved players by over-drafting to fill needs...i.e BB Drafting Wilson last year who was not even close to where he could have been chosen because BB had 31 chances to lose him after that pick if he waited until the next round. That shuffles the deck. So called authorities and web sites evaluate. Teams have their own agenda. It all reality they are close. In fact, Teams use the sites and media in that process.

My thread was not made to determine if a kid was a "C" or "C-", it was in the end to show the ten year weakness of the Patriots Draft brain trust over ten years and how they cannot chose a DB or WR with any consistent success.

As an example: If there are those who feel McCourty is a Pro Bowl player yet today....They would be wrong again by available information and statistics as the Pats pass defense is one of the worse in the NFL these last few years and he is supposed to be the best player. Check his pass completed against record etc. Again, my estimate is a "C" and the thought of him maybe moving back to CB is scary. I think it is a fair estimation of a very week pass defense that he supposedly is the best DB. If anyone feels otherwise, that is their opinion. Fair enough.

These numbers are subject to change but in my process that is what "I" felt they are now and I can back that up. As far as McCourty, his "Rookie" year was great, BB looks for improvement year to year and he digressed. He is a mediocre Safety and obviously still has cover issues. My opinion is "C". "B" might be a grade issued because of potential I guess.

Thanks for your realistic reply's. They were well thought out. All good comments.
DW Toys

re: A "Reasonable" Draft evaluation on Pats DB or why BB so bad at drafting WRs andd CBs?

chevss454 said:

BB is frequently accused of being a bad evaluator or WR talent but I don't buy that premise.

First, BB has only drafted 8 WRs with the Pats. Here are their 1st-year contributions:

2nd (2002) - BRANCH - 43/489, 2 TDs
2nd (2003) - JOHNSON - 16/209, 2 TDs
2nd (2006) - JACKSON - 13/152, 3 TDs

3rd (2009) - TATE - 24/432, 3TDs
3rd (2010) - PRICE - 3/41, 0

5th (2004) - PK SAM - 0-0-0 (he was really only a returner)

7th (2009) - EDELMAN - 37/359, 1 TD
7th (2002) - GIVENS - 9/92, 1 TD

No 1st rounders and 3 of 8 chosen after the 4th round. Of these 8, Branch, Edelman and Givens turned out pretty well. Given the rounds BB chose to use for drafting a WR, 3 of 8 actually seems pretty good to me.

So, maybe the right question to ask would be "why has BB valued WR talent so low?".

I don't know that answer but I can tell you I'm hoping he values WR higher for this draft.

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1) This is a great point. For comparison's sake, lets look at GB (probably the best track record at WR over the past decade) over the same period:

1st - Javon Walker
2nd - Jordy Nelson, Randall Cobb, Greg Jennings, Terrence Murphy, Robert Ferguson
3rd - James Jones
4th - Cory Rodgers
5th - David Clowney
6th - Craig Bragg
7th - Brett Swain, DeAndrew Rubin, Carl Ford

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They've gone WR twice as many times in the money rounds than we have.

2) If you want to ****** about Belichick drafting wimps and choir boys that aren't talented, a highly regarded 6-2 muscle-bound press corner who runs a 4.35 probably isn't a good example.

3) Tate put up numbers at UNC but it was pretty classic "college receiver" stuff. No route running ability nor enough pure speed to get by on that. I'm not saying "BELICHIK IS STUPID GAIZ WE SHOULD HAVE DRAFTED MIKE WALLACE" but the failed Tate experiment was not as surprising as people are making it sound.

re: A "Reasonable" Draft evaluation on Pats DB or why BB so bad at drafting WRs andd CBs?

DaBruinz said:

Because FredfromDartmouth is the definition of crazy. Doing the same thing over and over again, but expecting a different result. Fred figures that if he starts the same thread over and over again, the people who know better will just get tired of rebutting him with facts and that, at some point, he'll only get people replying who agree with him..

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HA! You guys give just killed me when I said that the Ron "Flounder" Brace pick was a wasted pick. When I said that Haynesworth would not last half the season the outrage was so loud that the moderator trashed the thread. Everyone was stoning me then. HA!

Re: A "Reasonable" Draft evaluation on Pats DB and WR picks the last 10 years.

BritPat said:

There were plenty of stories pre-Draft in 2006 about McDaniels pushing for Jackson, on here and on the web.

Its no coincidence that after we cut him, he rocked up in Denver - where McDaniels was coaching.

Unless I dreamt the whole McKid as HC thing and this is nothing but an episode of Dallas?

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Well, you apparently dreamt the whole Chad Jackson to Denver thing

My point that people act as if McDaniels was involved in the decision is enhanced not debuked by your "people here and on the web were talking about it".

Re: A "Reasonable" Draft evaluation on Pats DB and WR picks the last 10 years.

DW Toys said:

I appreciate your fair and astute evaluations. Whereas my thread was my opinion only

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You claimed it was reasonable, right there in your thread title. It isn't even close to reasonable, and it's a pretty varied group of posters who agree with my assessment, based upon the responses.

DW Toys said:

and I did the extended research,

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You had Chung as a first round pick, so your research couldn't have been all that extended.

DW Toys said:

the likely suspects on this forum have commented and are always "I am better than you" negative anyway.

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It's not about being better than you. It's about your "opinion" being a clearly biased and unreasonable one, as well as it having clear, factual errors in it.

DW Toys said:

I guess I could say that then they would be wrong then, wouldn't they!

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Directly or indirectly, you say people are wrong all the time.

DW Toys said:

Their opinion does not hold any more weight than yours or mine.

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Opinions carry the weight they are given by those receiving them.

re: A "Reasonable" Draft evaluation on Pats DB or why BB so bad at drafting WRs andd CBs?

FredFromDartmouth said:

HA! You guys give just killed me when I said that the Ron "Flounder" Brace pick was a wasted pick. When I said that Haynesworth would not last half the season the outrage was so loud that the moderator trashed the thread. Everyone was stoning me then. HA!

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Umm... good for you?

Re: A "Reasonable" Draft evaluation on Pats DB and WR picks the last 10 years.

A reasonable attempt at wasting the reader's time.

re: A "Reasonable" Draft evaluation on Pats DB or why BB so bad at drafting WRs andd CBs?

DaBruinz said:

.. Doing the same thing over and over again, but expecting a different result...

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HA HA you got me going there for a moment, I thought you were commenting about BB

re: A "Reasonable" Draft evaluation on Pats DB or why BB so bad at drafting WRs andd CBs?

Snake Eyes said:

The salary cap might get in the way of signing big name WRs and CBs but how does it get in the way of drafting one?

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OK, I was less than clear. The Patriots spent two number 1s on Tight ends who were less than dominating. When they hit on Gronk and Hernandez, notice they didn't wait to sign them long term.

They drafted two 6'8" tackles who are going to cost big money, or cost big money to replace. These seem to be priorities.

They've also needed to pay Welker franchise money and lay a big contract on Mankins. Whether this was planned or not, it's a big part of the outlay on offense.

At the same time, they've had to completely rebuild the defense. They had a #7 pick which might have pulled a smart, fast leaping WR, but they turned it into mayo. They've valued O and D linemen and linebackers with other high picks.

They've been unlucky with CB picks, but a top CB is a high pick and will take up a big portion of the cap if they hit. Same with a complete WR.

Safeties used to be available low, but they've increased in value. They simply had a bad run with Meriweather and Butler and chung, but low sirst, high second round picks aren't guaranteed. Samuel was a low pick who held them for ransom even though he wasn't a complete, or smart player.

My point about the cap was, you need to have a plan and they wanted top tight ends and tackles at any cost. they also needed picks for the defense, we simply had no players after the great defenses got old.

A top ten WR or DB means trading up and diverting money from TEs OTs DL, LB.

It's sad to cut loose a #1 and #2 DB, but it's sadder to hold on hoping they turn into good smart players because it usually doesn't happen.

We have, or can acquire, picks in the 20-40 range every year and for every bust their could be a better than pick player. Vollmer, McCourty, Spikes and Hernandez are better than drafted, even if it means McCourty switches to safety, because he has all the intangibles Meriweather lacked.

We draft according to our salary cap priorities, which seem to be TE, OT and front seven defense. Real good linebackers cost less than real good DBs, therefore are available in that 20-40 hole.

Re: A "Reasonable" Draft evaluation on Pats DB and WR picks the last 10 years.

I would offer my evaluation but it's essentially piling on at this point.

re: A "Reasonable" Draft evaluation on Pats DB or why BB so bad at drafting WRs andd CBs?

FredFromDartmouth said:

Because it was. Picking Tate one pick before Wallace was taken is the definitive, canonical,stupendously-bad, atrocious pick. Wallace was exactly the type of WR they needed yet they whiffed.

You could make a strong case that if Wallace was drafted then the Patriots would have won the Super Bowl last year or this year; it is really hard to win the Big One without a deep threat. For the last couple of years there has been a screaming need for guy who will take the top off the defense, and the frustrating thing is that they could have had that guy instead of Tate.

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It should be no problem for you and snake eyes to pull up your posts screaming for the Patriots to take Wallace before that draft.

Let's see those posts.

re: A "Reasonable" Draft evaluation on Pats DB or why BB so bad at drafting WRs andd CBs?

Ivan said:

It should be no problem for you and snake eyes to pull up your posts screaming for the Patriots to take Wallace before that draft.

Let's see those posts.

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I can't claim that my search is conclusive proof of a lack of such screams by either poster you mentioned, but a search request for posts with the word "Wallace" in them, written by FredFromDartmouth, pull up a thread started at

01-23-2011, 06:16 PM

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as the first mention of that word by that poster:

New England Patriots Forums - PatsFans.com Patriots Fan Messageboard

While I don't agree that failure to post about a player alternative is generally some sort of "gotcha", it's clear that FredFromDartmouth is a big poster on the draft, so that's certainly something that raises a red flag for me, in this instance.

re: A "Reasonable" Draft evaluation on Pats DB or why BB so bad at drafting WRs andd CBs?

It's a scheme issue not a talent evaluation issue. When they started to play aggressive this season (after adding Talib) it was like watching a different team.

Talib goes down, they start playing bend but don't break and viola, we are eaten alive.

re: A "Reasonable" Draft evaluation on Pats DB or why BB so bad at drafting WRs andd CBs?

Deus Irae said:

I can't claim that my search is conclusive proof of a lack of such screams by either poster you mentioned, but a search request for posts with the word "Wallace" in them, written by FredFromDartmouth, pull up a thread started at



as the first mention of that word by that poster:

New England Patriots Forums - PatsFans.com Patriots Fan Messageboard

While I don't agree that failure to post about a player alternative is generally some sort of "gotcha", it's clear that FredFromDartmouth is a big poster on the draft, so that's certainly something that raises a red flag for me, in this instance.

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We now have history etched in stone for the last 10-12 years and what it shows in respect to the patriots is that they are an average to below avergae team drafting talent. We know that the owners are pretty tight with the bonus money which has created some horrific personnell decisions such as Samuel, Branch & Givens to name a few. the salary cap is crap it's the bonus money that matters and the Krafts have been trying to win on the cheao for a while now. The day of reckoning is coming soon than you think.

re: A "Reasonable" Draft evaluation on Pats DB or why BB so bad at drafting WRs andd CBs?

Brarrell said:

We now have history etched in stone for the last 10-12 years and what it shows in respect to the patriots is that they are an average to below avergae team drafting talent.

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It actually doesn't show that at all. It shows them to be right at the top when it comes to the draft.

Brarrell said:

We know that the owners are pretty tight with the bonus money which has created some horrific personnell decisions such as Samuel, Branch & Givens to name a few. the salary cap is crap it's the bonus money that matters and the Krafts have been trying to win on the cheao for a while now. The day of reckoning is coming soon than you think.

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The Patriots haven't been profligate spenders, but they haven't been cheap, either. They've been a top 10 team in terms of actual dollars spent.

re: A "Reasonable" Draft evaluation on Pats DB or why BB so bad at drafting WRs andd CBs?

Brarrell said:

We now have history etched in stone for the last 10-12 years and what it shows in respect to the patriots is that they are an average to below avergae team drafting talent. We know that the owners are pretty tight with the bonus money which has created some horrific personnell decisions such as Samuel, Branch & Givens to name a few. the salary cap is crap it's the bonus money that matters and the Krafts have been trying to win on the cheao for a while now. The day of reckoning is coming soon than you think.

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It's amazing how a team drafting at the bottom of most drafts for 12 years manages to end up at the top with winning records and playoff appearances while drafting below average.

Could someone tell me how that's possible?

Also, you want us to stick ourselves with all sorts of dead money for players who don't work out. You're a Daniel Snyder fan?

re: A "Reasonable" Draft evaluation on Pats DB or why BB so bad at drafting WRs andd CBs?

Brarrell said:

We now have history etched in stone for the last 10-12 years and what it shows in respect to the patriots is that they are an average to below avergae team drafting talent. We know that the owners are pretty tight with the bonus money which has created some horrific personnell decisions such as Samuel, Branch & Givens to name a few. the salary cap is crap it's the bonus money that matters and the Krafts have been trying to win on the cheao for a while now. The day of reckoning is coming soon than you think.

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I disagree. The Patriots are one of the better drafting teams in the NFL. Look at the success of their first round picks; they almost never miss in the first. They have a problem with WRs and CBs but in general their drafts have been good. They might not be the best drafting team (Ozzie Newsome might be the best but I do not follow the Ravens) but they are up there.

Re: A "Reasonable" Draft evaluation on Pats DB and WR picks the last 10 years.

DW Toys said:

I appreciate your fair and astute evaluations.

Thanks for your realistic reply's. They were well thought out. All good comments.
DW Toys

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I think that it may help if you took into account the overall hit/miss percentages in the draft itself, and I think that there were some who pointed out some numbers and examples to take into account. You may have an unreasonable expectation of the success rate in the drafting process, and they may be skewing your opinion a bit and adding to some of the frustration.

You'd be correct in stating that there are certain positions that haven't panned out as well as others, but there have also been some positions that are blue chip future players with the majority of choices, so it all evens out. At the end of the day our current drafting seems to have improved in the past few years, so that's someting to keep in mind. There may have been a lean stretch of sorts from 2006-2009 or so (as a whole). Stuff happens, but the NEP have still succeeded in many areas as far as the draft goes.

One thing to keep in mind about the DB's is that it appears as though we may be having a bit more luck than in the past, as 3 young + up and coming selections have been made in terms of McCourty, Dennard, and T.Wilson. Although Dowling has been a bust so far, the limited sample that we've seen could add optimism that if he finally gets healthy (understanding that we can't hold our breaths) he may be able to add himself to that list and become the 4th player who may be able to add to the drafting turnaround in the secondary.

I think that ignoring these positions in the draft due to some past failures would be silly though, as the salary cap era (especially lately with the current flat cap) really makes it a challenge as to successful building outside of the draft. I think the majority of the choices will always have to be in the draft, with a couple/few reasonable monetary additions coming from free agency. Hopefully we can see the positions of past failures produce something this year to put the team over the top.