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the BIGGEST problem with the Pats passing attack


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I guess I just question whether the "welker centric" offense is the way to go...so far in our playoff losses we haven't been able to even put up 20points...and thats pathetic.

since switching over to a more tight-end oriented offense with Hernandez/Gronkowski, welkers role sort of becomes redundant....sure we've been able to put up great stats in the regular season...but i'm more concerned about the post-season where teams have learned how to bottle up this passing attack because it's too predictable.

I view acquiring a physical mis-match outside the hash-marks WR and defensive help as more of a priority than giving welker 10-11million$$ IMO

I would like to see McDaniels draft a WR early(this guy drafted some absolute studs for Denver). given that Gronk/hernandez stay healthy I feel like an offense of:

Outside WR/Gronk/Hernandez/Lloyd would be much harder to defend.

1.) Welker's role is not redundant. That's a fallacy. There's only one receiver on the team that does close to what Welker does, and that's Hernandez. However, Hernandez is nowhere near as capable of getting open in the small spaces as is Welker.

2.) The notion of points is really not accurate either. In 2007, the offense was Moss-Centric: 14 points. In 2009, Welker didn't play: 14 points. In 2010, the Brady screen INT wasn't to Welker and the drop in the endzone was to the TE: 21 points. In 2011, with Gronk out: 17 points.

It's not about Welker-centric. It's about the offense in general.

2001 - 16, 24 and 20
2003 - 17, 24 and 32
2004 - 20, 41 and 24
2005 - 28 and 13
2006 - 37, 24 and 34
2007 - 31, 21 and 14
2009 - 14
2010 - 21
2011 - 45, 23 and 17
2012 - 41 and 13

The question we need to answer is: How much of the problem is the offensive game planning, how much is injury/freak turnovers, and how much is other factors like the opposing game plan, opposing defensive style, etc....? The consistency of low scoring games essentially rules out Welkercentrism as the problem.
 
well, I would say that outside of Gronkowski, we are just lacking a physical mismatch at wide receiver...and without him we are limited to a very "scheming" sort of passing attack...maybe with a healthy Gronk we would be different. but we havent yet seen that in the playoffs

generally teams who can get physical with our wide receivers tend to limit our passing game..even the welker TD had to do with scheming.

at some point you have to be able to just go mano-e-mano throw the ball out there and expect your receiver will be able to just go out and get it . that is what Gronkowski offers..and what Boldin gives the Ravens

I dont think welker is a problem, but I do think we NEED a Big physical outside receiver. who can just bully these smaller CB's.

you see guys like Flacco, matt ryan just throw the ball out there and their receiver is able to manhandle the defender and come up with the ball...on the other end Brady needs to put a perfect pass into his receivers hands to move the chains
 
well, I would say that outside of Gronkowski, we are just lacking a physical mismatch at wide receiver...and without him we are limited to a very "scheming" sort of passing attack...maybe with a healthy Gronk we would be different. but we havent yet seen that in the playoffs

I think there's truth to this, although what I'd say is that the outside receivers have 2 weaknesses (struggle with getting off the line, lack of top end speed) that allow teams to keep them flat inside the same distances as the inside trio far too often.

generally teams who can get physical with our wide receivers tend to limit our passing game..even the welker TD had to do with scheming.

This is why I wish the Patriots would incorporate more motion into the offense. Why they let undersized/understrengthed receivers get locked up on is something I just don't have an answer to.

at some point you have to be able to just go mano-e-mano throw the ball out there and expect your receiver will be able to just go out and get it . that is what Gronkowski offers..and what Boldin gives the Ravens

Welker also gives them this. In fact, he's better at it than anyone in the league besides Megatron and Fitzgerald. It's just that he does it in a smaller area.

I dont think welker is a problem, but I do think we NEED a Big physical outside receiver. who can just bully these smaller CB's.

I'll take the bully, but I'll also take the speed guy, as long as they work to get him a clean start.

you see guys like Flacco, matt ryan just throw the ball out there and their receiver is able to manhandle the defender and come up with the ball...on the other end Brady needs to put a perfect pass into his receivers hands to move the chains

Flacco's got Smith, who's basically Mike Wallace. Ryan's got two legitimate studs who were both deserving first round picks and arguably the greatest tight end in NFL history, but the Falcons will be watching the game from home the same as the Patriots.
 
the point of the thread is that its not talent that is making us attack either within the 10yd range, or inside the hashmarks, its gameplan specific for the most part

Lloyd CAN attack in the mid range, the problem is that we didn't ASK him to, not w/ the routes we had him running

wes can attack in the 10-20 yd range fine as well, we dont need him in the 30+ though, b/c yes, those passes have a very low comp. %

Ahern this past game was catching the ball like 2-4 yds from the line of scrimmage, that is ridiculous, the guy is athletic, put him downfield and out in space

do those things, and the "need" of a tough outside WR (which I would love to also see, dont get me wrong) becomes a luxury rather than the need it is perceived as right now
 
I think we are expanding Lloyd's game out to a place where it will not go. You can't expect Lloyd to get that far downfield into the intermediate range with that catch the ball as he is going down technique. He is a nice option to have...a neat piece in a rotation of receivers but to me he is no very down WR. Lloyd's technique basically requires that he stay below and inside the guy defending him from the perspective of the line of scrimmage. The farther downfield he gets the less effective he is as very quickly he ends up pinched against the sideline with the defender underneath him. He can get farther downfield when the defender cheats up on him but it is not like Lloyd has moves he can put on the guy out there. He is not comfortable out there. So he has to beat the defender at the point where the defender has tried to cheat up to take his bread and butter away and then he gets a shot at an intermediate range ball still on his feet. That does not look like an opportunity he gets very often though.

As far as Welker goes....he does not out-physical anybody. He out-positions everybody.

He will cut off the defender when the defender has his weight over the wrong foot and can't react to his move or he will cut to sharply for the defender to react or he will cut off another receiver again with enough quickness to leave the defender in his wake.

How many times do you see the defender leaning the wrong way when Welker cuts off of him. Wes is still shifty enough to make the defender bite on an inside move and as soon as said defender starts turning his shoulders the wrong way Wes has turned back the other way and the defender is left defending thin air. Suddenly there is a bunch of room between Wes and the guy trying to defend him. At the point when Wes had caught the ball you often find yourself wishing he could magically turn into Edelman but Edelman does not get open like Wes gets open.....so far not even close.
 
in short: a lack of attempting to hit intermediate routes (15-30 yds downfield from the line of scrimmage)

in essence the pats passing attack, from coaches to Brady have created a mentality of a short passing game, and that mentality is so strong that it is hampering the possibilities of the offense

my point is that its this mentality that is the prob, not the personnel, or the talent

though a short passing game that is efficient and quick in the NFL is an absolute killer, it should NOT be your primary objective, an intermediate passing game should be, with the short passing game existing as what you run most routes on, but only if the intermediate is not available

this is even more so when we have a run game, b/c a short pass game and a run game essentially serve the same purpose, a 4 or 5 or even 6 yd route is almost the same thing as running the ball for us (this past season when we ran so well), but it has so many more points of failure (protection, pass, deflection, INT, PD, easy drop, bad throw, DB coverage, miscommunication) whereareas a run will maybe net you less yards, but will have the effects of having many less points of failure (and has positives such as establishing dominance at the line and tiring out a defense, fumbles are also less likely than INT's, also sets up PA)

in order to achieve this we need to look at the types of routes our receivers are asked to run:

Wes: as a slot receiver who is quick, yet slow he is best suited in the 4-10yd range of passes, and that's good, because that is where he absolutely dominates, no one else in this league can do what he does in that area, and he should be the either the only, or one of two routes run in this space, his size also makes him better in this space

Aaron: can be used as an intermediate weapon, though we have not done that very much, he has the speed and size to accomplish this, especially if covered by LB's

Gronk: ULTIMATE intermediate route weapon, just heave it up when he runs either a slant, post or streak/go and you will be golden, he is also fast enough to be an intermediate target

Lloyd: the primary problem with Lloyd is the routes he has been asked to run, early on in the season he ran the comeback route a LOT, and got 10-15 yds on it, where did that go? in the playoffs he ran mostly slants, well what exactly do you expect? he is not allowed to do anything, of course hes not gonna be able to get to the intermediate space, but that is not because he cannot, he has simply been tasked with running routes that attack the same depth of the field, but just outside the hash marks

those are our 4 main weapons, an edelman or RB can run either an intermediate or short route (preferably short), Aaron can run both, though I would use Gronk as almost solely an intermediate target, why throw it to him 5 yards out? it makes no sense

the biggest problem recently with attacking the intermediate portion of the field is this: the gameplan makes brady get rid of the ball TOO fast, our O-lines have struggled in games, but if you take their work over a season they have been quite good, in these playoffs brady usually had all day to throw the ball, yet still got rid of it within 3 seconds...b/c of the gameplan, and its focus on short routes

let Brady take deeper drops, let him hold the ball longer, and let him survey the field, and not waste that effort on a 5yd pass, but on a 15-30 yd pass

this is what happened in the Texans games (both) where we absolutely manhandled a very good team, this is what did NOT happen in the Balt. game, where we got absolutely manhandled by an OK defense

MAKE THE INTERMEDIATE PASSING GAME YOUR PRIORITY, AND YOU WILL WIN IN THE PLAYOFFS

This is only an issue in a limited number of games. Sunday was one. Most games are not.
 
well, I would say that outside of Gronkowski, we are just lacking a physical mismatch at wide receiver...and without him we are limited to a very "scheming" sort of passing attack...maybe with a healthy Gronk we would be different. but we havent yet seen that in the playoffs

generally teams who can get physical with our wide receivers tend to limit our passing game..even the welker TD had to do with scheming.

at some point you have to be able to just go mano-e-mano throw the ball out there and expect your receiver will be able to just go out and get it . that is what Gronkowski offers..and what Boldin gives the Ravens

I dont think welker is a problem, but I do think we NEED a Big physical outside receiver. who can just bully these smaller CB's.

you see guys like Flacco, matt ryan just throw the ball out there and their receiver is able to manhandle the defender and come up with the ball...on the other end Brady needs to put a perfect pass into his receivers hands to move the chains

I don't think you see Flacco throw the deep ball and anyone manhandle the defender. Torrey Smith is not a big physical WR. He's not all that tall (6 foot) or big (203 Lbs) although he is really fast, but as we saw on last Sunday he can get manhandled by a physical CB like Dennard. Smith was almost a non-factor and Flacco didn't have a pass farther than 26 yards vs. the Pats.

In the game a week earlier vs. Denver, Smith did beat Bailey on a couple of deep balls but that was more because of his athletic ability to stop and come back on one play where Bailey over ran the pass because it was behind them and other big play was because he just outran the old and slow Bailey. He had 3 catches for 98 yards and two TDs. Two of the plays I just described accounted for 91 of the yards and both TDs. In neither play did Smith manhandle the defender.

Yes, Boldin can manhandle receivers, but no more than Gronk can. And like Gronk, Boldin is better suited for shorter and intermediary routes rather than deep routes. He isn't a guy you can just throw the ball up and expect him to manhandle the defender to get because he is not all that fast. I might trust Gronk in that situation more. Hence why he is one of the best red zone targets in the NFL.

Julio Jones, on the other hand, is a big receiver who can manhandle defenders down the field. He also has 3 inches and 20lbs on Torrey Smith.
 
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