You got the quote a little wrong :
"Two NFL front office men who studied Armstead said they thought the 22-year old would have been no worse than a third round pick if he were in the 2013 draft. A third said he thought Armstead would have been a third- or fourth-round pick."
New England Patriots Blog - ESPN Boston
Two said he would be no worse than a #3, another said #3 or #4.
Personally, I think he's much more than that. I've been leading the Armstead fan club for a while. I've been interested in him as a talent for years. But it's really what he's done in the past 20 months that stands out to me:
1. USC basically kicked him off the team in the summer of 2011 because of medical concerns. He wasn't allowed to work out with the team, and was basically an outcast.
2. He tried to transfer to Oregon (where younger brother Arik had signed with Chip Kelly) but the USC lawyers blocked that, because USC didn't want him transferring to a Pac-12 rival. So he declared for the 2012 draft.
3. The USC lawyers wouldn't let him train or work out at the team facilities, or work out at the USC pro day for fear or possible medical mishaps and liability, so he pretty much had to go on his own without any of the normal support structure that prospects have to train for the draft. He didn't get a Combine invite. His private workout numbers were for a guy who hadn't played football in 9 months and hadn't trained under the supervision of trainers, so they are probably not reflective of his optimal athletic abilty.
4. Despite his potential, no NFL team drafted him or signed him as a UDFA because they were scared of the medical issue, despite reassurances from physicians. So he went to Canada to prove himself.
5. He went to Toronto, 2500+ miles from home, living on the road with older players with no support structure, without the financial resources that come with being a high NFL draft pick, and played an 18 game schedule (I'm not to worried about the "rookie wall"). According to his GM he never missed a practice. He showed the maturity to thrive on his own in a professional environment, and to carry himself as a professional. That's a big advantage over most college kids, who have not experienced life outside of the relatively sheltered and structured environment of college.
6. He made the CFL All Star team as a rookie, and his team won the Blue Grey cup. He was noted for his relentless motor as well as for his physical skills.
7. To the best of my knowledge, Armstead has never publicly complained about what happened. In an era where stars still ***** about being "robbed" of a SB 12 years ago, he seems to have dealt with difficult circumstances with maturity.
8. He chose the Patriots - with 15 NFL teams reportedly showing interest - in part because he said that he wanted to play for a contending team.
Add it all up, and it's a lot. It shows that this kid cares about winning, cares intensely about football, and has the drive and perseverence to overcome obstacles and succeed. There are a lot of talented kids out there, but not many of them have that kind of success record going into the draft.
Maurice Jones-Drew wrote as a guest columnist for Peter King's MMQB a few years ago:
The NFL consists of the world's most superior athletes (no disrespect to my NBA and FIFA brothers). Whether we're talking about superstars like Peyton Manning and Tom Brady or the 53rd player on a roster, the athletic and physical ability of NFL players is nothing short of phenomenal. With that said, there is still a very clear split between players considered "NFL good" and those considered "NFL great."
Why is that? In my brief four years in the NFL, I've come to believe the answer to this question rests with "want-to." In other words, because the talent level of most NFL players is so high, the question of greatness ultimately boils down to whether players "want to" do the things necessary to be great. These players and others who are considered the best at their respective positions indeed are blessed with god-given abilities, but they don't rest on these talents. They work to maximize them. While others are sleeping or partying, the great ones are running hills, lifting weights and studying film. They do this not because a coach has instructed them to do so. They do it because they simply desire to be the very best.
The formula has always been and always will be the same: Talent + "Want-To" = Greatness.
Maurice Jones-Drew*fills in for Peter King's Monday Morning QB - Maurice Jones-Drew - SI.com
Armstead's always had the measurables and the physical talent. He's demonstrated the "want to", as far as I'm concerned. Not many highly recruited guys have had to do so much just to get their shot. Unless medical and physical issues derail him, I think he stands a much better odds of success than the average high draft pick.
