Is Welker worth $10 million

This is very vague, so I will address it as two different questions.

Is Wes Welker worth $10 million next season on the open market? Yes.

Given the balance of talent on this football team, would spending $10 million of the team's cap space on Welker this coming season be the best possible investment of $10 million dollars? No.

My answers are yes and yes.

Of course Welker has not offered to play for that for one year.

Get it shawtaay said:

This is very vague, so I will address it as two different questions.

Is Wes Welker worth $10 million next season on the open market? Yes.

Given the balance of talent on this football team, would spending $10 million of the team's cap space on Welker this coming season be the best possible investment of $10 million dollars? No.

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Deus Irae said:

His worth is his worth, regardless of the Patriots cap space.

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This makes no sense because you fail to consider the OTHER half of the equation. You can't consider the "worth" of something without considering the "value" of the object to the purchaser.

You cannot say what's Wes Welker value is WITHOUT considering what they can afford to pay him, PLUS all their OTHER expenses. Clearly DI, you've never had to live under a budget, which is what a hard cap is. Is that that Mercedes really a good value, if it means you have to give up your house and LIVE in it. Like any big purchase, you can't buy it in a vacuum. You have to consider the things you WON'T be able to buy or do if you make the purchase. Welker at $10MM/yr means you likely won't be able to have Talib (or his like) and Volmer....and others. There are plenty of question on these guys too, but judgments have to be made

"Regardless of the Patriots cap space"? C'mon man. Just because something has a "market price" doesn't mean you can afford it. Thank God you aren't running the show. All the "big stars" would be paid their "market value regardless of the cap" and...we'd be the Jets

A few comments on the comments:

1. I get the feeling that Welker will be back next season, but at a contract that won't be close to $10MM/yr. Sure there might be a huge signing bonus in the $10-12MM range, and there might be a few "phony years" at the end of the contract, where the Pats can release him at no cap consequence, to fatten the deal for the agent's sake. But I'll be surprised if when the deal is finally stripped bare, it amounts to $8MM/yr in real money

2. I think Andy made a really important point early in this thread that hasn't received enough discussion. He made the astute observation that the Welker's been a key element in the success of this offense. He then stated a reasonable, but unproven supposition, that no on will be able to replace his skills to the point where the offense itself will have to substantially change

Now I'm personally not convinced that Welker is THAT irreplaceable, but that is just my opinion. A very good case can be made for Welker being a "unique player"....and thus irreplaceable. Ergo the offense would have to change its focus, just like its done with the additions of Hernandez and Gronk. How it did this year, with the additions of the young RB group (2nd in rushing attempts? That was a shocker)

Over the years this team has changed its offensive focus several times the during the BB era, and it would have little trouble doing it again, whether its to a bigger focus on the running game, or a bigger focus on the outside the numbers passing game pr a little of both. Just because what we'd see would be "different", doesn't mean it wouldn't be as productive as what we've seen recently.

3. One of the reasons I would never pay Welker $10MM/yr is that I believe, even if his skills remain intact over the next few years. For him to justify that $10MM price tag, he'd need to produce similar numbers (ie 120/1200) His production was worth the $9.4MM the Pats paid him.

My problem is, I don't think that will be possible for him to reach those kind of numbers,i when more of the offense's focus falls on the RB's, TE's, and outside WR's. So its very likely that next year Welker could do everything right and still wind up with "just" 80-90 catches and 8-900 yds, This would be a fine and very productive year.....but NOT worth a $10MM/yr.investment.

One of the most troubling aspects that came out of the Ravens loss to me, was the concentration of targets to basically just 3 of our receivers in that game. In previous offenses there would be games where 6-8 different guys would wind up with catches. That's simply not the case now.....and it hurt us in the end.

4. There are going to be teams with the cap room and need that could probably justify paying Wes $10MM/yr in real money. Places where Wes would be the focus of the offense and not just one of 4 guys. So ultimately if getting $10MM/yr is his most important objective, he's gone. However if the winning environment, HOF QB, and REAL chance to win the SB every year is worth taking $2-3MM less per year, then I think the Pats and Welker will find common ground and he'll be here.

AndyJohnson said:

Why is that a bad thing?


This is faulty logic. We lose a game so the strengths of the team must be the reason?
We ran 34 times and lost, should we abandon the run?
We didn't blitz a lot and lost should we adandon that?



Again, I ask, if he is on the field and gets open why would you not throw him the ball.
Welker doesn't catch passes because the coach says throw to Welker, Welker catches passes because he is the guy who is open.



Thats not actually what he said. He said the Ravens stretched the defensive holding and 5 yard chuck rule and the refs let them get away with it.



I think Belichick an offense that is effective, and he already has that. Change for change sake is good when you suck, not when yuo are dominant.


Thanks I didn't know that. I just want the team to set points records and the playoffs are stupid.
The answer to not winning the SB isn't to eliminate the strength that keeps getting you close.

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Maybe I'm not being clear. I'm not saying to get rid of Welker, just to lower or reliance on him.

I know you will respond with a "If he gets open why not throw to him" arguement. There are different ways to win games. We got punched in the mouth and didn't respond. Teams know our bread and butter is the short middle of the field routes. Deep in the playoffs we have seen teams take that away and we haven't responded. I would like to see runs/play action/deep shots to make teams respect the full field. If that means a few less passes to Welker then thats fine. We need to be able to beat teams that can take away the short passes. The Pats need someone on the outside who can keep the safetys honest.

You may not want to acknowledge that the Pats got out muscled by the Ravens but that is EXACTLY what Rodney said.

“The Baltimore Ravens came in and beat up and physically dominated the Patriots. I would have never thought that was something that would happen to a Patriots team,” Rodney: Safety enforcer needed - New England Patriots Blog - ESPN Boston

patfanken said:

However if the winning environment, HOF QB, and REAL chance to win the SB every year is worth taking $2-3MM less per year, then I think the Pats and Welker will find common ground and he'll be here.

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Are you talking about manning , manning will be estatic to goto next year to have mr 3rd down and Yac leader to replace brandon stockley who is 39 next year.

they had the no2 defense this year, a player like wes can give himthe move the chain, intermediate presence that he can use. also think about this , wes will draw the No1 CB out from the outside WR meaning thomas will be even more productive.

satz said:

Are you talking about manning , manning will be estatic to goto next year to have mr 3rd down and Yac leader to replace brandon stockley who is 39 next year.

they had the no2 defense this year, a player like wes can give himthe move the chain, intermediate presence that he can use. also think about this , wes will draw the No1 CB out from the outside WR meaning thomas will be even more productive.

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Wes won't be drawing any number 1 corner while Thomas is there

patfanken said:

This makes no sense because you fail to consider the OTHER half of the equation. You can't consider the "worth" of something without considering the "value" of the object to the purchaser.

You cannot say what's Wes Welker value is WITHOUT considering what they can afford to pay him, PLUS all their OTHER expenses. Clearly DI, you've never had to live under a budget, which is what a hard cap is. Is that that Mercedes really a good value, if it means you have to give up your house and LIVE in it. Like any big purchase, you can't buy it in a vacuum. You have to consider the things you WON'T be able to buy or do if you make the purchase. Welker at $10MM/yr means you likely won't be able to have Talib (or his like) and Volmer....and others. There are plenty of question on these guys too, but judgments have to be made

"Regardless of the Patriots cap space"? C'mon man. Just because something has a "market price" doesn't mean you can afford it. Thank God you aren't running the show. All the "big stars" would be paid their "market value regardless of the cap" and...we'd be the Jets

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Thank you Ken, that is exactly why I said not in a vacuum but in terms of this team, its needs, and cap situation. I've been bombarded with comments telling me I do not know what I'm saying or thinking while the majority of those posters have ignored the premise of the question entirely.

I'll say it again:

1) Welker is a great player
2) Welker deserves $10 million or roughly that much per year for a few more years
3) We better not be the ones paying it.

Brady2Moss said:

Thank you Ken, that is exactly why I said not in a vacuum but in terms of this team, its needs, and cap situation. I've been bombarded with comments telling me I do not know what I'm saying or thinking while the majority of those posters have ignored the premise of the question entirely.

I'll say it again:

1) Welker is a great player
2) Welker deserves $10 million or roughly that much per year for a few more years
3) We better not be the ones paying it.

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They paid him 9+ this year, and he put up yet another 110+ catch season. It was money very well spent. People crying about paying him again is an embarassment to the Patriots fan base. Would I prefer that the team work out a deal that pays Welker less? Sure, but they should have worked out a deal for Welker years ago, so the market's the market, the tag is the tag and the hypothetical of the O.P. is the hypothetical we're looking at.

I'm just not going to be foolish enough to act as if Welker's getting paid what he's worth is somehow a drag on the team. It's not, just as Brady getting paid what he's worth isn't a draft, and Wilfork getting paid what he's worth isn't a drag. If you want to cry about money, cry about the wasted money. You can start with the Fanene deal and go from there.


Leave the foolishness to Jets fans.

Deus Irae said:

They paid him 9+ this year, and he put up yet another 110+ catch season. It was money very well spent. People crying about paying him again is an embarassment to the Patriots fan base. Would I prefer that the team work out a deal that pays Welker less? Sure, but they should have worked out a deal for Welker years ago, so the market's the market, the tag is the tag and the hypothetical of the O.P. is the hypothetical we're looking at.

I'm just not going to be foolish enough to act as if Welker's getting paid what he's worth is somehow a drag on the team. It's not, just as Brady getting paid what he's worth isn't a draft, and Wilfork getting paid what he's worth isn't a drag. If you want to cry about money, cry about the wasted money. You can start with the Fanene deal and go from there.


Leave the foolishness to Jets fans.

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Maybe the problem is we don't have the money we would've had if we didn't waste money on Ocho Stinko and Fanene, those were horrendous mistakes and I agree Welker should have been reupped in 2010. If they can do some cap laundering to give him a 6 million cap hit this year I'd like to have him back, but tagging him is out of the question I think $11.4 is huge. Situation is tricky now.

honestly, the only way I dont re-sign welker is if we re-allocate his money to someone like say Greg Jennings.

jennings/lloyd on the outside routes, and then Hernandez/Gronk in the middle.

but, I fully expect Welker to be here next year. I think he KNOWS he wouldnt be the same player in another system, and the Pats know how important he was to the team this year. we suffered large injuries to our offense losing Gronk/Hernandez for amounts of time....and yet kept still rolling in the passing game..PARTLY because Welker is so good

At his age somebody may make Wes an offer that takes him to 35 years old and if the money is right why would he care after that what system he is playing in up to that age. Guys his size don't play past 34-35 years old...they are lucky to get to 34-35 years old still playing.

I do think it will be TB to the rescue unwilling to see his security blanket go elsewhere, restructuring his deal to free up some money for Welker. In truth that might produce the very best outcome cause that should mean the Pats can go try to pull a big physical wide receiver out of the draft.