There's no doubt that Welker is a remarkable receiver, with incredible durability, and that he's been one of the most reliable and consistent players on the team over the past 6 years. It's hard to argue against that, or to criticize the player.
But I think it's also hard to deny that Welker has a limited catching radius and zone of effectiveness, and that he has had some key misses in big play situations where he has been the primary target. I suspect that as he gets older, those problems will only increase, as his hand strength subtly diminishes.
Do I think that Welker is phenomenal? Yes. Would I love him to be part of this team? Yes. But am I convinced that making him the primary receiving option in clutch situations is the most likely route to another SB? Probably not.
It's not Welker's fault that Gronk was injured, or Hernandez regressed somewhat this year after his injury. Welker's been a battler and done all that was asked to him. He's not Super Man.
But I do question whether, in a tight cap environment, and with a number of other "move" based receiving options, we might be better off spending on a younger, bigger, more physical receiver. We have enough guys capable of operating effectively in Welker's territory and being reasonable receiving options that we could probably spread a lot of his workload around between Hernandez, Vereen, Edelman, Woodhead and Demps. None would be a Welker, but collectively I'm not sure we would lose that much. But none of those guys can provide the big, physical receiving presence that we need. Only Gronk currently does that, and without him we struggle against more physical teams.
I don't know the answer. I think Welker deserves to be paid, and I'm sure he will continue to produce. But I also expect that he'll continue to have some drops in key situations (as well as making plays in many other key situations) if we continue to rely on him in the clutch the way we have.
I don't know the answer and I'm not arguing either way. It's a hard problem.
