The Line is moving fast

Joker said:

"the line is moving!!!! the line is moving!!!!..BAWWWWK!!!

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Beauty!!

The spastic colon clenching, hereabouts, is pathetic.

We've actually got multiple sightings of adult mammal bipeds who seriously think that the Line moving a couple of Points portends Trouble abrewing!! The "Sharps" must...know something!! Good GOD!!

supafly said:

What the hell site is that?

I wouldn't be nearly as worried about the fact that they have it up at -10 still as I would be about the fact that they have Baltimore as -155. Who the hell would want to bet -155 as a straight pointspread line?

Are you sure that isn't just another one of their options, like the option to buy an extra point or two? Are you sure that is the straight pointspread?

Something reeks here...

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It's Bovada.. obviously tons of action on Baltimore. This is the longest I can remember them waiting to move the spread.. and they have been pretty stubborn the last couple weeks. It's just too high at -10

For those who really must have something to worry about in regards to the spread/the odds:

**the Patriots are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 playoff games

**In the last 5 years Baltimore is 6-3 ATS in postseason games played away from Baltimore

The "sharps" . What about the flats? Treble clefs? What happens to the magical mystical "line" when Harbaugh's sphincter sings soprano? Alert the wise guys! The liiiiiiiiiiine is mooooooooooooooving!!!!

:bricks::bricks::bricks:

There is no doubt in my mind that the Patriots will win big. Put $1000 on 9.5. I believe they will win by 14 or more

Yup!

Consider that $1M is bet on the ravens at 9.5 and then $1M on the patriots when the lines "corrects" to 7.5. If the actual result is in the middle,the bookie loses both bets. The perfect line is one that never moves because there equal money on both sides.

Off The Grid said:

Wrong.

Twice.

The less the Line moves, the happier the Bookies are.

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Pats -7.5 on sportsinteraction. the over is 52.5..

Grabbing a alternate Spread of Pats -9 and taking the over. I owe it to Bill O'brien, who made me a boat load of money this year betting on Penn State..

(For the record, this is a F it, why not bet. I am up a ridicules amount of money this year. If this was a college Saturday I would be more hesitant)

Off The Grid said:

Beauty!!

The spastic colon clenching, hereabouts, is pathetic.

We've actually got multiple sightings of adult mammal bipeds who seriously think that the Line moving a couple of Points portends Trouble abrewing!! The "Sharps" must...know something!! Good GOD!!

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While I too share much of your positivity, I'm assuming that you're not too well-rehersed in following many line movements this year around various sporting events?

After all, no one has said word one about the Pats losing. We are talking about the pointspread and the movement of it.

TheBostonStraggler said:

For those who really must have something to worry about in regards to the spread/the odds:

**the Patriots are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 playoff games

**In the last 5 years Baltimore is 6-3 ATS in postseason games played away from Baltimore

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The other side of the coin is that the NE Patriots are 17-3 in their last 20 games when they are favored by 8 or more points, so those concerned also need to take that into account.

I don't think it's so much of movement of a pointspread that is concerning some, it's the media hype and week long chatter from the talking heads.

I was actually more concerned with last week's game than I initially was this week's game, but as it progressed it wore on me a bit.

TheBeers said:

It's Bovada.. obviously tons of action on Baltimore. This is the longest I can remember them waiting to move the spread.. and they have been pretty stubborn the last couple weeks. It's just too high at -10

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There were some heavy rumors floating around where I actually read an article a couple of weeks ago that stated that the "popular" teams (I'm assuming they are referring to the high-scoring teams such as DEN/NE/GB) were drawing so much one-sided action that they couldn't keep the lines high enough.

One of the rumored big Vegas books was MGM Grand, who claimed at one point to have to go into their reserves, which is obviously rare.

I tried to find a link to the article but couldn't, possibly due to it being removed or possibly due to my sheer stupidity

I am assuming that Bovada took a bit of a hit, especially in the first week of the playoffs where all 4 favorites and all 4 overs came in, and that's why they are keeping the line at -10.

I also assume that it's ready to move down very soon, seeing as how Baltimore is a -155 for that +10. That's telling all of us that it's about to crack any moment now.

Does anyone know of a good futures website?

NE is favored 125 to 100 to win SB47 and I was hoping to do better than that.

mgteich said:

Yup!

Consider that $1M is bet on the ravens at 9.5 and then $1M on the patriots when the lines "corrects" to 7.5. If the actual result is in the middle,the bookie loses both bets. The perfect line is one that never moves because there equal money on both sides.

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Wouldn't it be even more perfect if the spread never moves and the final score results in a push?

Joker said:

"the line is moving!!!! the line is moving!!!!..BAWWWWK!!!

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Your posts are often thoughtful and you bring a nice sense of humor to the site, actually I appreciate many of your thoughts, but once again you've created this chicken little vs homer fantasy land that does not need to exist.

It's okay to have a reasonable discussion about a topic that doesn't necessarily blow smoke up the asses of our favorite team 24/7/365. It doesn't always mean that people are camped out in a bunker wearing foil hats.

It's alright to fall somewhere in the middle of certain topics, and for what it's worth to you, the only concern was that the "sharps" or "experts" money was coming in a bit quickly, which was pushing the line down dramatically. That usually doesn't happen until closer to gametime, and often acts as a predicator as to what the big players are doing.

Those who wish to converse about that are free to do so, while those who do not partake in such practices do not need to concern themselves.

For what it's worth to you, I stated that some of the factors may have been weather (the suggested 25+ mph crosswinds which will affect the passing game), the media hype, and replays of last year's game--which don't have any bearing on this year's but tend to point out a closer matchup.

Im not concerned about the line moving 2 points.

All it proves is that bettors waited to see if the line moved higher and to see who was injured before finally putting money on the Ravens. Jones and Woodhead are both playing.

At 9.5, the Ravens are basically up 2 scores to begin the game. Thats a tantalizing bet considering how close these NE vs Baltimore games usually are.

upstater1 said:

Weren't the Patriots underdogs to the Colts?

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yes, Pats were home dogs to the Colts but impressed so much that the Pats were away favorites the very next week at no.1 seed PIT

TheBostonStraggler said:

Wouldn't it be even more perfect if the spread never moves and the final score results in a push?

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In most places they refund the entire bet price, which includes the juice too, so really no one wins or loses in that case, at least in the category of pushes.

Now if you're talking about "middling" (and I think that maybe mgteich was), then that's a whole different ballgame. That's when the bookie falls in the middle of the line movement and ends up paying out too much action due to the score falling in the middle of the lines. I think that is why they are pretty careful not to accept too much action on one number, and that's why the odds (-110, -115, -120, etc) and pointspread change accordingly.

I believe that it happened in one of the two old PGH/DAL Superbowls in the '70s, but I am not specifically sure as to which one.

The bookies had a nickname for it, I think. IIRC, it may have been called "Black Sunday" or something like that. Now I think things are more carefully planned due to mistakes being learned and the technological advances.

Triumph said:

Does anyone know of a good futures website?

NE is favored 125 to 100 to win SB47 and I was hoping to do better than that.

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Sportsbook.com currently has it slightly less Triumph, so you may do a little better than what you have there.

They have it at -120.

One thing to keep in mind with sportsbook.com is that they used to be the best sportsbook in the business, and were always advertised in the major publications like USA Today etc due to their quick payouts.

Now they have been lagging significantly, and have quickly become a bit of a joke. The last withdrawal I took out was on Nov.19, since I wanted some extra Christmas cash. I didn't end up receiving the check until last week, which took about 2 months, so I really wouldn't suggest them either.

Sportsinteraction.com is based in Canada, so they have a pretty quick payout system. You may want to check there.

supafly said:

Sportsbook.com currently has it slightly less Triumph, so you may do a little better than what you have there.

They have it at -120.

One thing to keep in mind with sportsbook.com is that they used to be the best sportsbook in the business, and were always advertised in the major publications like USA Today etc due to their quick payouts.

Now they have been lagging significantly, and have quickly become a bit of a joke. The last withdrawal I took out was on Nov.19, since I wanted some extra Christmas cash. I didn't end up receiving the check until last week, which took about 2 months, so I really wouldn't suggest them either.

Sportsinteraction.com is based in Canada, so they have a pretty quick payout system. You may want to check there.

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Thanks Supa

supafly said:

In most places they refund the entire bet price, which includes the juice too, so really no one wins or loses in that case, at least in the category of pushes.

Now if you're talking about "middling" (and I think that maybe mgteich was), then that's a whole different ballgame. That's when the bookie falls in the middle of the line movement and ends up paying out too much action due to the score falling in the middle of the lines. I think that is why they are pretty careful not to accept too much action on one number, and that's why the odds (-110, -115, -120, etc) and pointspread change accordingly.

I believe that it happened in one of the two old PGH/DAL Superbowls in the '70s, but I am not specifically sure as to which one.

The bookies had a nickname for it, I think. IIRC, it may have been called "Black Sunday" or something like that. Now I think things are more carefully planned due to mistakes being learned and the technological advances.

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Ahhh, thanks for the correction Supa. I assumed the "juice" was a non refundable price of admission (so to speak).

I, obviously, don't wager on games. It's probably been 15 years since my last Fall weekend trip to Reno. I just didn't end up on the plus side enough to see the 'enjoyment' -- not at the sportsbook as well as not at the blackjack table. Some of the gambling rules I do remember: Betting bigger never helped get back the money I had already lost, and never take the advice of your buddy who is full of complimentary drinks.:bricks:

I remember posters being shocked that it was 9.5 to begin with, so maybe this is where it should have started in the first place