Idle thoughts - The Houston Match up. (Texan fans welcome)

Uncle Rico said:

Well, here we go:

Nick Underhill ‏@Nick_Underhill
ESPN asked Wade Phillips if Joseph is gonna cover Welker: "“Ah, Welker’s not (A.J.) Green … he’s not that big or a real athletic guy."

As SMY of the Globe points out, this is from a coach, not a columnist.

Note to Phillips: Make sure you cover Welker first series. Just a hunch.

Click to expand...

Thanks Wade! More!

Rob0729 said:

Wade Phillips isn't an innovator or very creative. He does what he does which is man to man. Unfortunately for the Texans, Brady is really successful historically against the typical Wade Phillips defense. Blitzing Brady is not exactly a good strategy because unless you get pressure up the middle, he eats blitzes alive. Wade will need to kick Watt inside a lot.

Click to expand...

Wade Phillips defense is what some coaches call a match-man or match-zone defense.

It's similar the combination of match-zone and switch-man defense in basketball.

In a nutshell, it matches up the closest defender to an offensive threat.

But it'st not always like that.

He mixes it up with straight up man coverage, a combo of man/zone and occasionally a pure zone defense.

How much of each depends on the opponent.

What you saw last game may not be the same this Sunday.
Or it may look the same when in truth it isn't.

There are some good reads by coaches on the net if anybody is interested in.
Google something like match-man or match-zone defense football.

If you look back at the win over the Cowboys, they had to start a guy named Jacque Reeves.

If you think any of your CBs was bad last year, you should be glad Reeves isn't on your team.

The previous win over the Chargers, both QBs had a bad day.
The Chargers lost 3 fumbles and went down 21-24.

The Pats couldn't muster much in the running game either.

Don't take Wade Phillips lightly is all I'm suggesting.

76Texan said:

Wade Phillips defense is what some coaches call a match-man or match-zone defense.

It's similar the combination of match-zone and switch-man defense in basketball.

In a nutshell, it matches up the closest defender to an offensive threat.

But it'st not always like that.

He mixes it up with straight up man coverage, a combo of man/zone and occasionally a pure zone defense.

How much of each depends on the opponent.

What you saw last game may not be the same this Sunday.
Or it may look the same when in truth it isn't.

There are some good reads by coaches on the net if anybody is interested in.
Google something like match-man or match-zone defense football.

Click to expand...

Whatever Defense he runs Ruud, Quin and James will have to cover Gronk and Hernadez at some point, that has to concern you. They couldn't cover AH Gronk is really at a different level entirely.

Patriot 37 said:

Whatever Defense he runs Ruud, Quin and James will have to cover Gronk and Hernadez at some point, that has to concern you. They couldn't cover AH Gronk is really at a different level entirely.

Click to expand...

Ruud used to be a pretty good LB; I don't know how healthy he is now, but his stats showed that he can defend a few passes and corner a few INTs.

He made a few good plays for us in his limited role.
I doubt that he still has the 4.65 speed he displayed at the combined.

I think the Texans will vary their matchup such that Barwin could be on a TE once in awhile, and Manning too.

I hope for one of the OLBs to disrupt Gronk and Hernandez at the start of their route to throw their timing off just a little bit.

ThatllMoveTheChains!!! said:

Sorry to hear about your guy. Hopefully this doesn't turn into a career impacting thing. TBH I don't think it'll have as large an impact as you think since Houston was unlike to win in a shootout. The Texans' best chance is if the scoreboard looks something like 19-17, which they can still manage absent Graham.

Click to expand...

But it is with Graham's blocking that the Texans can sustain drive in the running game. This is what I hoped for last game, but Graham wasn't able to play.

I hope to see more of our big rookie RG Brandon Brooks.
He didn't play much in the last game but he held his own when he was out there.
I think he matches up better with Wilfork and Love (given occasional help, of course.)

IllegalContact said:

the biggest difference between the jets and ravens in comparing them to the texans is the situation at the inside LB positions.

2009 ravens - ray lewis/tavares gooden
2010 jets - david harris/bart scott
2012 texans - bradie james/barrett ruud

the first 2 are either capable or very good in coverage......james/ruud not so much.

there are other big differences.......

ravens game: an 80 yard td run by rice plus 3 brady turnovers.......BTW, the raves were bringing it since ray lewis got one of the 1st quarter sacks. the pats weren't that good in 2009 anyway

jets game: outside of mediocre execution, this loss can be chalked up to a botched 4th down by chung and 2 big throws by sanchez.

alot of players cut their teeth on those losses as well as the near loss in the AFCC against the ravens last year......that was one of those games....the ball simply bounced for the pats

Click to expand...

I'm going out on a limb here, but I bet y'all never imagined any of those things would happen, or that Tom Brady & the Hoodie would save you.

Ain't nothing changed. We might not have Bart Scott or Ray Lewis, but we're not bringing chopped liver. Though they may not be household names they helped get us here.

I expect that Houston will make the Pats throw to Loyd on one on one coverage even though he beat them last time. Also, don't be surprised if Branch is in the mix. Houston has to pick its poison. I expect 8 men in the box with the underneath routes covered aggresively. Lots of stunts and games to try to pressure Brady. Loyd has been up and down and Branch has shown his age but they still can beat one on one enought to get some big plays. Playing super aggresive gives Houston its best chance for turnovers, which is both their style and what they need.

The Pats can and will score points no matter what Houston does.

Houston will move the ball on the underneath routes that the Pats will give them. Houston has not consistantly produced in the red zone. Until they do the Pats will give them the underneath routes.

Shaughnessy is an idiot. Houston has a chance if they limit mistakes and the Pats don't.

But I think the spread is about right . Houston stays close for 2/3 to 3/4 of the game but the Pats pull away late. 34 to 23 - Pats.

Lots of things have to go right for the Texan's to pull out this upset.
At least like the Jets game a couple of years back when Brady made some uncharacteristic errors, a botched faked punt, a dropped pass by a Pat in the endzone, things like that.

It can happen

76Texan said:

Lots of things have to go right for the Texan's to pull out this upset.
At least like the Jets game a couple of years back when Brady made some uncharacteristic errors, a botched faked punt, a dropped pass by a Pat in the endzone, things like that.

It can happen

Click to expand...

It sure can. Personally, I'm not taking anything for granted.

Best of luck, and let's hope for a good, injury-free game.

BradyManny said:

I feel like this one is overblown. The original time table was 4-8 weeks and reports had him ahead of schedule. Gronk's arm had 6 weeks going into the Dolphins game, it will now have a full 8 weeks.

I think his dangling arm was purely a matter of protecting it in what evolved into a meaningless blowout. When he needed to use it out of instinct (catching the ball), he showed no hesitation.

Click to expand...

I agree with almost everything that you say here, with the exception that he was fully ahead of schedule. I didn't necessarily get that impression myself, and thought that it was kind of up in the air. I'm not sure how much we can take from him being limited in practice for a couple of weeks, as he was not cleared for physical contact, and was only doing some mild positional drills and keeping in top shape.

MoLewisrocks said:

Tedy has some serious concerns about Gronk based on his return performance. Says he has never seen a player that seemingly determined to play one armed to protect an injury...

Click to expand...

I was just going to ask Mo about his thoughts on the opinion of Bruschi here, and then I came to your post.

I will certainly agree that Gronk was protecting the arm in dramatic and obvious fashion, but that may have been more by design as far as listening to the staff and trainers as they headed into the playoffs.

The bye week was a big concern for me not only due to many of the nagging injuries on the team itself, but also due to the fact that it would allow Gronk to heal for another 2 full weeks. I think that is a big positive for us at this point, and it has been a full 8 weeks now.

As noted, when he had to perform he did, and his blocking while limited, did not initially seem to be in the "poor" category, although I had a limited view too.

Houston reportedly hopes to wear down Vince Wilfork this time around:

Houston hopes to wear Wilfork down - AFC South Blog - ESPN

Wilfork only played 50 of the 70 defensive snaps in the first game. Unlike Watt, he can be a game changer without playing every snap. It will be interesting to see how that plays out.

mayoclinic said:

Houston reportedly hopes to wear down Vince Wilfork this time around:

Houston hopes to wear Wilfork down - AFC South Blog - ESPN

Wilfork only played 50 of the 70 defensive snaps in the first game. Unlike Watt, he can be a game changer without playing every snap. It will be interesting to see how that plays out.

Click to expand...

If "Wear Wilfork down" is your strategy, you'd better have a good Plan B.

Uncle Rico said:

If "Wear Wilfork down" is your strategy, you'd better have a good Plan B.

Click to expand...

Agreed. The problem with wearing Big Vince down is that it forces him to just fall on top of you in a heap. How is that going to help you? Have you ever seen him flop on an opposing player? It is at the same time both hysterical (to me) and horrifying (to the poor guy who just had almost 400 lbs. land on him).

This may sound dumb to Pats fans but I am just glad that my favorite team is finally in the playoffs playing against teams like the Patriots and the Ravens, rather than having our offseason start at the end of December. You guys may not give a crap, but just my team having a shot to knock out the hallowed BeliBrady combo in the playoffs is a very very good feeling than just a few years ago when we were laughed at for having David Carr getting sacked 75+ times and having Jabbar Gaffney as our #1WR.

b0ng said:

This may sound dumb to Pats fans but I am just glad that my favorite team is finally in the playoffs playing against teams like the Patriots and the Ravens, rather than having our offseason start at the end of December. You guys may not give a crap, but just my team having a shot to knock out the hallowed BeliBrady combo in the playoffs is a very very good feeling than just a few years ago when we were laughed at for having David Carr getting sacked 75+ times and having Jabbar Gaffney as our #1WR.

Click to expand...

Many of us have been there -- wasn't too long ago (well, maybe it was) it almost felt like an honor to have the Pats play the Cowboys in the regular season!

Anyway, as long as your guys are just glad to be here, too, we'll be all set.

I was going to post this infographic in its entirety but as I looked it over it really occurred to me that very little of these stats are relevant at this point. Click the link if you want to review all the matchups this weekend.

Infographic: NFL divisional playoffs by the numbers - Yahoo! Sports

Generally I love infographics, but I don't think there's much good in looking at the 42-14 game against the Texans. That was just such a quirky turn of events to have so much scoring come so quickly - at which point Houston just isn't in the greatest position to come from way behind as their passing game is not their strong suit (and of course more passes can = more INTs)

Aside from that, it doesn't tell us much that we don't know. Houston's strong suits are its defense and running game. The Patriots D is probably playing better now than the stats indicate, but overall it looks like it matches up about evenly with what the Texans offense typically does - but the Houston D will have its hands full trying to limit the Patriots offense.

I'd say the most interesting thing is that when you look at the running and passing yards from the last game, along with time of possession, it was a pretty even game. But even that doesn't tell an accurate story, with the Patriots able to coast and run after building a big lead and the Texans forced to throw more - and of course yards gained or given up doesn't translate into points - which is the most relevant stat.

Uncle Rico said:

If "Wear Wilfork down" is your strategy, you'd better have a good Plan B.

Click to expand...

There's only one person I can think of who can probably succeed at that strategy, and I don't think She's very likely to suit up for the Texans.