Pats vs. Niners - Initial Thoughts

the niners win 1 way......running the ball

if they don't run the ball well, they lose

now with kaepernick, even when they do a decent job running the ball, they can lose

IllegalContact said:

the niners win 1 way......running the ball

if they don't run the ball well, they lose

now with kaepernick, even when they do a decent job running the ball, they can lose

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LOL - true. They'll run Gore/James and even Kaepernick. I just hope our LBs punish them every time they do.

One thing I noticed from the Texans game is that the Texans did put lots of pressure on Brady. He just felt it and got the ball out quickly. However, Brady always put the ball in a position that only his guy (usually in one on one situations) could get it.


What worries me is that Brady could do this easily because the Texans routinely blitzed Brady. The niners won't do this and will try to get pressure on him with just 3-4 players. And like the Giants, they just might. Brady will have to be good with the ball if the Pats are going to win this game.

mosi said:

One thing I noticed from the Texans game is that the Texans did put lots of pressure on Brady. He just felt it and got the ball out quickly. However, Brady always put the ball in a position that only his guy (usually in one on one situations) could get it.


What worries me is that Brady could do this easily because the Texans routinely blitzed Brady. The niners won't do this and will try to get pressure on him with just 3-4 players. And like the Giants, they just might. Brady will have to be good with the ball if the Pats are going to win this game.

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they got pressure once it was 21-0 because they started blitzing.......in my opinion, blitzing is rarely successful against brady and if the niners need to resort to that, I like the pats chances.....I lke the pats chances anyway.

I guess there's a perception that the niners are much more physical.......I thin the only real guage of physicality is the number of fumbles you cause......I like the pats there, too

AmpLee said:

The Pats better hope it's not about physical. No team in the NFL is more physical than the Niners.

The Pats best strategy is to be smarter. The Niners are a team led by a relatively young coaching staff with a young QB at the helm and they are susceptible to young mistakes like not getting plays in on time, offensive line penalties, and poor decisions regarding challenges and TOs. That being said, this physicality of the Niners is far superior and if your coach wants to match physical prowess, the Pats will be sorely mistaken in their gameplan.

Last year the Saints tried to go helmet to helmet with us an Whitner set the tone by smashing Pierre Thomas so hard he coughed up the ball at the goal line. I see this game going in a similar direction regardless of the fact it's a year later.

Our defense isn't vaunted because we hold people to the fewest points in the game, it's because we hit you in the mouth so hard you don't want to play offense. It might sound like smack talk, but I'm proud of our ability to be more physical than our opponent.

That being said, Brady is a master at neutralizing the effect of an aggressive D and your offense is nothing to sneeze at, especially since it matches up well against a defense that has susceptibility in the passing game.

No matter what, this will be a fantastic game and I can't wait to see how it turns out. However, to your dismay, we will knock the snot out of you and win the game by a narrow margin.

-Amp

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Two thoughts:

Man, these 9ers fans on here are something else. Usually opposing teams fans just kind of suck (with a few exceptions). But these 9ers fans are pretty level headed.

Second, I LOVE the 9ers. Great team, hard not to root for. That said, I don't think they're capable of coming to an NE team that is absolutely rolling and beat them. I think it's something like 31-20 Pats -- close, but unless Kaepernick or Harbaugh surprise BB (which could happen), I like the Pats a lot more than 2-3 weeks ago. Also, I think this game is bigger for the Pats. The 9ers very likely have a bye either way, while this could mean the #1 seed for the Pats, and I'm sure BB&Brady are well aware of this.

Seels said:

Two thoughts:

Man, these 9ers fans on here are something else. Usually opposing teams fans just kind of suck (with a few exceptions). But these 9ers fans are pretty level headed.

Second, I LOVE the 9ers. Great team, hard not to root for. That said, I don't think they're capable of coming to an NE team that is absolutely rolling and beat them. I think it's something like 31-20 Pats -- close, but unless Kaepernick or Harbaugh surprise BB (which could happen), I like the Pats a lot more than 2-3 weeks ago. Also, I think this game is bigger for the Pats. The 9ers very likely have a bye either way, while this could mean the #1 seed for the Pats, and I'm sure BB&Brady are well aware of this.

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This game is much more important for the 49ers than it is for the Patriots. If the 49ers lose this game and the Seahaws beat Buffalo, there will be a SF/SEA game next week where a Seattle win would knock the 49ers into second place.

Deus Irae said:

This game is much more important for the 49ers than it is for the Patriots. If the 49ers lose this game and the Seahaws beat Buffalo, there will be a SF/SEA game next week where a Seattle win would knock the 49ers into second place.

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What an absolute crap show it will be for the league is Seattle gets a bye over SF and Green Bay by one game.

CK has been accounting for nearly half the 49ers running yards since taking over so containing him as well as Gore is the key. Bad news for SF is Hoculi's crew is going the game and they've called the 5th most offensive holding penalties by crew. This is bad because SF has the most offensive holding calls in the league. If they get off schedule they're in big trouble.

CandlestickBum said:

Alex Smith has a passer rating of 104 this year, tied with Tom Brady and RGIII for best rated passer in the NFL. Sure Smith is efficient, but a lot of that has to do with our coaching and our talent on both sides of the ball.

Kaepernick has a respectable 97.5 rating so far this year, putting him pretty high up.

Unlike Smith though, he has a real rocket of an arm and can potentially move the ball far down the field.

And unlike Brady, he is lightning fast on his feet and can rush 50 yards for a touchdown on a bad blitzing attempt.

I am not saying he is the next Steve Young, or even that he is better than Alex Smith at this point, but he certainly has the athleticism to be, and I think that can be scary for planning your defense, especially if your original game plan was based around the efficient and speedy, but not strong armed or lightning fast Alex Smith.

Of course, potential does not always beat experience and he could blow the game for us too.

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Kaepernick?!? Who? Holy cow. One look at this guy's career and it's like, you must be kidding.

Kaepernick is a babe in the woods. Colin Kaepernick Career Game Log - Pro-Football-Reference.com

He's thrown 3 TD passes in his career and one INT. Brady does that in a half. Kaepernick's QBR is meaningless in a game like this. Kaepernick hasn't thrown for 250 yards in a game yet. What?

You think this guy is ready to decipher a Bill Belichick defense? Really?

You saw what the Pats defense and the big game atmosphere did to Matt Schaub last week. Kaepernick is in for a long night. If he wants to run around, go for it. There are three young linebackers and some DBs who would love to remind him why quarterbacks stay in the pocket.

God help the 49ers if they get down 10 points in the first half.

ForThoseAboutToRock said:

7 - Will Brady have extra fire to step up his game against SF? Go watch the Brady 6 again and tell me he doesn't have even a teeny tiny grudge.

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Are you telling me that Pyper is telling you that Tommy feels the power of gridiron glory running through his veins, running through his Vivian Lakin' veins?

CityOfChampions said:

@CandlestickBum Passer rating is nice but still most important to me is only 3 TD's in 5 games. His running is good but I don't think it will be as successful as it was in the other games especially now that BB knows what he's capable of.

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Sorry to highlight your post, as your not the only one, but people who are throwing out that Kap has only thrown 3 td passes are misleading his stats. I think to be fair you have to also point out that he has 5 rushing TDs in four and a half games as well. So he has accounted for 8 TDs in four and a half games. Nothing earthshattering, but not bad either.

IllegalContact said:

nice......leading with the helmet.....how much $$ did they give up?

still....they're all little people..none of them are wilfork,love, or spikes.

I'd put my $$ on the pats in a street fight

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actually i don't recall any fines issued by the nfl on these hits so nice try. and i wouldn't be too quick to put my money against justin smith, sopoaga, bowman, willis, goldson, whitner... heck even tukuafu (look him up) in a street fight

patfanken said:

This game is going to be so much fun.

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Good stuff, as always. A couple of comments:

1) your last point is crucial: Kapernick is the least experienced QB the Pats have faced since the Tennessee Titans game. Career TD passes: 3. This one on the road, national media, SB-preview, and they really, really need this one or the 49ers are staring at a wild card is way over this kid's head. Welcome to the big time, kid.

2) Their defense is good and all that, but their 2012 schedule is the weakest group of offenses I can imagine. There is not a single high octane offense on the schedule: 2012 San Francisco 49ers Statistics & Players - Pro-Football-Reference.com

Eli beat them, Brees and Rodgers got near 300 yards against them, but there are no Peyton Mannings, Matt Ryans, Tony Romos or Tom Brady's on that schedule. This defense does not know what it looks like to have a precise, rapid-fire offense pounding away at them.

3) Some 49ers guy wrote about toughness - really? Like the Patriots aren't tough. Tell Logan Mankins, Vince Wilfork, Jerod Mayo, Wes Welker, Brandon Spikes, and Bill Belichick that they are not tough. A team doesn't take on all comers and beat them for ten years without being tough. I imagine the Patriots will match these guys hit for hit.

4) Pace of the game - your point about snap count by the 49ers is pretty amazing, but that might work against them in this one. The stat tells me they've stayed healthy, but it also tells me they're not all that deep, especially if the game becomes a track meet. I expect the hurry up a lot in this one to get the 49ers DL gassed. Watch for a heavy dose of all four backs going straight at guys that are slow to get back to the line.

5) Moss and Crabtree: That looks like a really scary duo until you factor in who is throwing the ball. Kaepernick has never thrown for even 250 yards, so stud talent like that at WR is wasted in a game like this. I expect Lloyd and Welker to at least double the Crabtree and Moss' output. (I love Branch, but, how nice would it have been to bring Moss back when Stallworth went on the IR? Sigh.)

patfanken said:

2. I can see the Pats using a lot of 3 safety looks this game as their nickel. This could be a rebirth game for Patrick Chung. Matt Chatham commented today that the Pats have been getting away with what amounts to 2 FS's in the middle for the past few weeks. Works well vs the pass, but I really don't want to see Steve Gregory meet Frank Gore head on.....and neither does Steve Gregory. So that 3 safety look that we all talked about a few years ago might be a good look this week, especially with a running QB like Kaepernick.

3. TE's have fared well against us this season and Vernon Davis is one of the best. I will be interested to see how BB decides to defend him. I hope its not with a LB. That won't be fair. Recently TE's and RB's have done the most damage to the Pats in the Passing game. I'm hoping that improves.

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Geez, Ken, you beat me to it.

I was all lined up after my meeting to make a post about how this week could be the time to take Chung out of the Witness Protection Program and glue him to Vernon Davis or to be the spy on Kaepernick.

This moment actually begs for Chung.

IllegalContact said:

yes...yes....I get it.....the 9ers are supposedly more physical than anyone......with the emphasis on supposedly......but they're not......they are a fast defense who will get pushed around on sunday


wilfork is 6'2" > 350, and has outstanding conditioning.........the blunt force trauma he delivers is matched by nobody...

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funny you keep mentioning wilfork when the question of physicality comes up but when we speak about our defense we have 11 physical playmakers to talk about... unless wilfork is split out at cb or at safety, i don't know how much his 350 lbs will help ALL 60 minutes

49erfan said:

funny you keep mentioning wilfork when the question of physicality comes up but when we speak about our defense we have 11 physical playmakers to talk about... unless wilfork is split out at cb or at safety, i don't know how much his 350 lbs will help ALL 60 minutes

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Wow, then the 49ers must be some kind of awesome offense then.

Ninerfan said:

Sorry to highlight your post, as your not the only one, but people who are throwing out that Kap has only thrown 3 td passes are misleading his stats. I think to be fair you have to also point out that he has 5 rushing TDs in four and a half games as well. So he has accounted for 8 TDs in four and a half games. Nothing earthshattering, but not bad either.

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You have an excellent team with an unbelievably good defense.

However, you're going to have to pardon us while we yawn as you extol the running greatness of your QB:

The Belichick Pats are 3-0 against Vick, 2-0 against Tebow, 3-0 against McNabb and 2-1 against McNair (loss coming during the inglorious 2002 season) and 2-0 against Kordell Stewart. Just this year, they handled Locker and Tannehill easily.

BB has seen that movie already.

IllegalContact said:

I'm still looking for the last quality win the niners have had

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The 49ers have some nice wins - Green Bay, New Orleans, Chicago, and drum roll please, they shut out the Jets. Crushing the Jets has to warm your heart just a little. These guys are for real, but nothing to fear.

CandlestickBum said:

Alex Smith has a passer rating of 104 this year, tied with Tom Brady and RGIII for best rated passer in the NFL. Sure Smith is efficient, but a lot of that has to do with our coaching and our talent on both sides of the ball.

Kaepernick has a respectable 97.5 rating so far this year, putting him pretty high up.

Unlike Smith though, he has a real rocket of an arm and can potentially move the ball far down the field.

And unlike Brady, he is lightning fast on his feet and can rush 50 yards for a touchdown on a bad blitzing attempt.

I am not saying he is the next Steve Young, or even that he is better than Alex Smith at this point, but he certainly has the athleticism to be, and I think that can be scary for planning your defense, especially if your original game plan was based around the efficient and speedy, but not strong armed or lightning fast Alex Smith.

Of course, potential does not always beat experience and he could blow the game for us too.

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QBR is a useful stat in context, but in a vacuum it doesn't tell you a ton. This is one of those times.

And I don't really see how Kaepernick being faster than Brady is relevant. Pretty much every QB in the NFL is faster than Brady. What matters is how the Pats' D matches up against Kaepernick, and I'd be surprised if there's any team in the NFL that takes gap discipline more seriously than the Pats do. That means the chances of a 50 yard run by the QB off of a bad blitz are minimal.

Dont the Bills run the piston offense which SF now runs .? That offense has given our D quite a bit of trouble.
On offense, the challenge for the pats is going to be the deep ball. Texans took away the short game in the 2nd Q and our off struggled until brady hit stallworth.