This game is going to be so much fun. I ready all 13 pages to make sure I didn't miss anything before I made my comments. Some great stuff here, including some excellent stuff by the Niner fans. They've been described as assclowns on a lot of threads that describe their boards, but the ones that have migrated here have been excellent. OK lots of stuff, I hope I can remember it all.
Great synthesis of a lot of the discussion so far Ken. Really nice stuff. Some thoughts:
Comments on the Niner D. vs the Pats O
3. But here are the some of the problems the Niners are going to have......especially if they keep their guys on the field as long as they do. The Pats will show their 2 TE 1 RB formations from both the gun and under C as their base defense. From that formation they will be difficult to defend from the nickel. If the OL got healthy last week, this will be the best OL that the Niners have faced, and we still will have 3 excellent receiving threats to go along with the 7th best rushing attack in the league.
4. SF will win their share of battles on defense. It will be hard not to with the kind of players they have at all three levels. However their problem is that the Pats only have to be successful one out of 3 times to be able to move the chains. That's going to be hard to accomplish on a consistent enough basis to hold the Pats under 25 points
5. I agree that the Niners will NOT try and blitz Brady much. They'd have to be idiots to do that. Not only because of the talent they have, but from what they saw on Monday. Harbaugh's brother in Baltimore has done a pretty good job of slowing Brady down, and I can see a lot of zone blitzes rushing only 4 or at a max 5 men coming and a lot of presnap disguising. It will be more important to them that Brady "feel" the pressure than for there to actually BE pressure.
Brady wants the ball out in rhythm. Make him constantly be looking for his 2nd and 3rd options. Brady doesn't like to do that, and there has been games where its given him a lot of trouble (Jets 2010 playoffs). Hopefully he will have learned that lesson and look more to his RBs in those situations this time. The bad news for the Niners is that though he doesn't "like" to do it, he damned good at it. I only hope he's patient and gets the RB's involved
6. There won't be a 21-0 start like last week, but I think that this is game of attrition that the Pats can win as the game goes on. Being at home they can completely control the pace of the game. And even though the Niners come in with the "physical" reputation, the Pats offense can get their 25+ points as the game goes on. That's NOT a finesse OL
7. The Niners had great wins over great offenses vs GB and NO, but neither team has the run game the Pats had and the GB game has about as much meaning now, as the Cardinal game does for the Pats. It will be a major league slug fest for the first half, but I see the Pats pulling way as the game goes on.
8. Mayo put up this stat that I found fascinating. IIRC, the Niners have only allowed 25 red zone entries this season. The lowest in the league. However over half of those wound up as TDs. That's a very interesting stat when you find out that no team gets into the red zone more than the Pats. Its the old irresistible force, meeting the immovable object. Its why this game is so goddamned interesting.
Good stuff, and it raises a bunch of points, most of which have already been discussed:
- If the Pats are fortunate enough to get out to a lead like the did against Houston it will be very difficult for the 49ers. But the Pats shouldn't count on it, and shouldn't press too hard. They need to be patient, and not make mistakes. This one probably won't be won in the first half.
- The Pats need to be prepared to handle pressure, but if the 49ers are smart they won't try and be too aggressive. As you say, creating the sense of pressure is more important than pressure itself. Rushing Brady, getting him out of his rhythm, causing him to go to his 2nd and 3rd options, those things may get him a bit frustrated. And if he's not patient, may cause some mistakes.
- The Pats really need to use their RBs in this game, both in rushing and in the passing game. I'd love to see Vereen used a lot, both split out wide and in the running game. Screens and draws could be very useful in this game. The Pats need to be committed to running the ball even if they don't put up very impressive results.
- Putting together drives will be key, even if they don't result in points, because that will start to wear down the 49ers defense. Vary the tempo, and make those 10 guys play a lot of snaps, including a lot of running plays, and a lot of plays where they have to pursue. Tire them out.
I see this one as a heavyweight title fight. You don't go for the early knockout. The odds aren't good, and you're more likely to get dinged yourself. You need to be patient and let the jabs and the body punches take a toll. Then, around the 10th round, if you've done everything right, fatigue should start to set in.
Pats D vs the SF O
1. Frank Gore is one of the to 5 RB's in the league, no doubt. But for some reason, I'm not worried a bit about him. With the 3 LBs plus Vince and company, I don't see the Pats stopping Gore, but I do see him kept under control (80 or fewer yds). OTOH, LaMichael James scares the ***** out of me. He is THEIR CJ Spiller, and the CJ Spillers and Reggie Bush's of the world have given us a lot of trouble.
I agree, I worry more about quick backs who can get in space than guys like Gore, as good as he is. Gore will get his yards, but I think the Pats will contain him, as they did Lynch and Foster.
2. I can see the Pats using a lot of 3 safety looks this game as their nickel. This could be a rebirth game for Patrick Chung. Matt Chatham commented today that the Pats have been getting away with what amounts to 2 FS's in the middle for the past few weeks. Works well vs the pass, but I really don't want to see Steve Gregory meet Frank Gore head on.....and neither does Steve Gregory. So that 3 safety look that we all talked about a few years ago might be a good look this week, especially with a running QB like Kaepernick.
3. TE's have fared well against us this season and Vernon Davis is one of the best. I will be interested to see how BB decides to defend him. I hope its not with a LB. That won't be fair. Recently TE's and RB's have done the most damage to the Pats in the Passing game. I'm hoping that improves.
Not so sure I want to see the rebirth of Patrick Chung. OTOH, Tavon Wilson could be useful in TE coverage.
4. SOP for a young QB making his 4th or 5th start in the league. Make him not know what he is seeing. Disguise and confuse should be the order of the day. That and keep him in the pocket. The bad news is that we won't see any mad dashes to the QB in this game. The good news is that we won't see any made dashes to the QB in this game. In other words the "controlled rush" will be in full force for this one. We really don't want to be chasing around CP in this game.
He will get is share of runs out of the pocket. We have to remain patient. I think we will only make it worse by trying and failing to get there.
5. Kaepernick is going to be exposed to the same bright light that the Houston QB was last week. That's not going to be easy for a young QB with this little experience. OTOH, this will be an overall stiffer test for the Pats. This will be a better D that won't foolishly blitz and play man all day.
I think Harbaugh will try and keep it simple for Kaepernick. Lots of runs, bootlegs and PAP's, and when he drops back to pass, he'll have 2 options and if they aren't open, get out of dodge and shred them with the run. He throws a nice deep ball, and the Pats have been hurt by the deep ball. We should see a number of them. Also slants to the WR's and dump offs to the RBs. I don't want to see James "in space"
For about the 100th time this season I wonder what might have been if only we had Dane Fletcher. He would have been so useful in playing a spy role on Kaepernick, or in TE coverage. But in general, I think as long as the Pats keep "contain" and prevent broken plays they will be ok. The trick will be staying disciplined and not letting plays break down.
Well that's what I got. Comments?
Terrific work, Ken.
