Pats vs. Niners - Initial Thoughts

to me it comes down to a few things....

patience - the teams that have beaten the niners have done it mostly by sticking to the run even though you are averaging less than 4 ypc

pass protection - in 2 of their 3 losses, the niners defense did not have a sack

keeping the QB in front of you - this is where the pats sporadic pass rush may serve to help them. keeping kapernick in the pocket would likely be the thing that kills him

IllegalContact said:

to me it comes down to a few things....

patience - the teams that have beaten the niners have done it mostly by sticking to the run even though you are averaging less than 4 ypc

pass protection - in 2 of their 3 losses, the niners defense did not have a sack

keeping the QB in front of you - this is where the pats sporadic pass rush may serve to help them. keeping kapernick in the pocket would likely be the thing that kills him

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Really good thoughts.

In the 4 games that the 49ers have either lost or tied, their opponents have run the ball an average of 35.5 times for an average of 134.75 YPG (3.8 YPC). In the 9 games that the 49ers have won, their opponents have run the ball an average of 20.5 times for an average of 71.1 YPG (3.5 YPC). The YPC is lower among the losing teams, but not egregiously so. But most teams that have lost to the 49ers haven't been as patient with running the ball, and not just because they got behind.

That probably plays in to your second point about pass protection. We saw it against Houston - the Houston defense was much more effective teeing off against the Patriots passing offense when the Pats weren't running the ball as much.

The Pats are averaging 33 rushing attempts per game. They ran 33 times against a Houston defense that had been averaging a league-low 21 rushing attempts/game against it through 12 games. San Francisco is averaging 25 rushing attempts against their defense through 13 games I expect the Pats will be patient and use the run to keep things varied, and to pound the SF DL.

the 49's scare me for one reason.

CK is Tebow, but a better runner, and with the ability to actually throw a good pass.

look back last year at the broncos game, in the first quarter the broncos put up 200+ rushing yards, but eventually the pats solved teh puzzle, shut em down and blew em out.

What worries me is what happens after the pats switch to containing the QB option, CK can throw to Crabtree, moss, and vernon davis.

If the 49 offense gets on a role they have enough weapons to really hurt a team.

That does not even take into account that they have a player who will be playing for the NFL sack record.

IllegalContact said:

patience - the teams that have beaten the niners have done it mostly by sticking to the run even though you are averaging less than 4 ypc

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I think this is the key; don't be afraid to punt. The 49ers live and die by the takeaway and more specifically INTs. If the Pats win or even tie in the TO battle they should win. I think running is needed simply to take the pressure off the short passing game since the 49ers LBs are excellent in coverage.

mayoclinic said:

Makes sense. Pats have a lot of pride. Then after the game you would hear Wilfork or Mayo say something like "All we heard about all week is how great the San Francisco defense is. Well, they are great. But we have a defense, too."

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Exactly my thoughts. Handful of sacks and three picks oughta be just what the Dr. ordered.

the houston game was actually a good prep for the niners.....both teams are the speedy 1 gap version of the 3-4.....the only time the pats really had a problem with this defense was when the chargers had that monster NT in the middle (don't remember his nae...williams maybe?)

the common element between the texans and the niners is that while they are fast, they are a little light...there's not much size after sopoaga for a 3-4, and I think you can move the pile in 4 yard chunks pretty consistently.....not the mantra of today's offenses, but thats why their defense is the way it is.....pressure

hoomanawanui will have a huge game without being seen in the stats

mayoclinic said:

Really good thoughts.

In the 4 games that the 49ers have either lost or tied, their opponents have run the ball an average of 35.5 times for an average of 134.75 YPG (3.8 YPC). In the 9 games that the 49ers have won, their opponents have run the ball an average of 20.5 times for an average of 71.1 YPG (3.5 YPC). The YPC is lower among the losing teams, but not egregiously so. But most teams that have lost to the 49ers haven't been as patient with running the ball, and not just because they got behind.

That probably plays in to your second point about pass protection. We saw it against Houston - the Houston defense was much more effective teeing off against the Patriots passing offense when the Pats weren't running the ball as much.

The Pats are averaging 33 rushing attempts per game. They ran 33 times against a Houston defense that had been averaging a league-low 21 rushing attempts/game against it through 12 games. San Francisco is averaging 25 rushing attempts against their defense through 13 games I expect the Pats will be patient and use the run to keep things varied, and to pound the SF DL.

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IllegalContact said:

...hoomanawanui will have a huge game without being seen in the stats

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Gotta give the Hooman credit. He looks so much better than he first did that it's almost as if it's a different player entirely.

Deus Irae said:

Gotta give the Hooman credit. He looks so much better than he first did that it's almost as if it's a different player entirely.

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If I'm not mistaken he'a taking reps over Fells now. It was only several weeks ago when we got him everyone was saying he'd be a stop gap thatd last 4 weeks.

Now he's drawing PI...

Obviously earned his snaps

AmpLee said:

The Pats better hope it's not about physical. No team in the NFL is more physical than the Niners.

The Pats best strategy is to be smarter. The Niners are a team led by a relatively young coaching staff with a young QB at the helm and they are susceptible to young mistakes like not getting plays in on time, offensive line penalties, and poor decisions regarding challenges and TOs. That being said, this physicality of the Niners is far superior and if your coach wants to match physical prowess, the Pats will be sorely mistaken in their gameplan.

Last year the Saints tried to go helmet to helmet with us an Whitner set the tone by smashing Pierre Thomas so hard he coughed up the ball at the goal line. I see this game going in a similar direction regardless of the fact it's a year later.

Our defense isn't vaunted because we hold people to the fewest points in the game, it's because we hit you in the mouth so hard you don't want to play offense. It might sound like smack talk, but I'm proud of our ability to be more physical than our opponent.

That being said, Brady is a master at neutralizing the effect of an aggressive D and your offense is nothing to sneeze at, especially since it matches up well against a defense that has susceptibility in the passing game.

No matter what, this will be a fantastic game and I can't wait to see how it turns out. However, to your dismay, we will knock the snot out of you and win the game by a narrow margin.

-Amp

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I dont know about this pats team but in the past, the pats were really up when they played the steelers, the most physical team apparenly and went out to prove they could match them physically because thats what BB challenged them to do. So lets not assume the pats cant match their physicality yet..

PatriotSeven said:

The 49ers defense is much better than Huston's. Colin K. makes their offense more potent than Alex Smith. Harbaugh is a very good coach and motivator.

They can stop us. They can score on us. They're healthier. They have a back up quarterback who can come in and do a great job, and are not so dependent on their QB like we are.


But.....then you realize the Rams beat them once and tied them once. Just saying...

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Hi guys! 49ers fan here dropping by again. I just wanted to point out that in the NFL it always comes down to how a team matches up. The Rams match up very well vs the 49ers and they are one team that are not afraid to run the ball vs our defense, that is the only way teams stand a chance against Willis and crew.e

Also I believe the Dolphins have matched up well vs you guys in recent years am I correct? That's pretty much how the Rams are to us since Jeff Fisher took over that team.

49ers avg 4 yards per carry on 1st downs...that must stop on sunday


and also


is anyone afraid of a let down game? Giving all of that energey into the houston game i mean using a lot of energy...a let down perhaps? Hope not

Brady_to_Moss said:

is anyone afraid of a let down game? Giving all of that energey into the houston game i mean using a lot of energy...a let down perhaps? Hope not

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A letdown, or a larger concern might be them looking ahead to that big Jacksonville game!

Noobody said:

Hi guys! 49ers fan here dropping by again. I just wanted to point out that in the NFL it always comes down to how a team matches up. The Rams match up very well vs the 49ers and they are one team that are not afraid to run the ball vs our defense, that is the only way teams stand a chance against Willis and crew.e

Also I believe the Dolphins have matched up well vs you guys in recent years am I correct? That's pretty much how the Rams are to us since Jeff Fisher took over that team.

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Agreed. Matchups are a big determinant. The 2007 and 2011 Pats teams did not match up well against the NY Giants nor for some mysterious reason did the 2012 Pats offense match effectively vs the Phins who have a decent but not great defense. I look for the Phins matchup issues to be corrected later this month with the return of the GronkMonster.

What concerns me a bit is the physical nature of this matchup. It promises to be a slugfest, because the 49ers are very physical and they need this game more than Houston needed it last week. I hope the Pats win, but they really need to come out of it healthy -- especially at WR and OL.

Brady_to_Moss said:

is anyone afraid of a let down game? Giving all of that energy into the houston game i mean using a lot of energy...a let down perhaps? Hope not

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No. If this was against Miami or Jax then maybe, but the Patriots won't have a letdown against a great team. The 49ers and their fans seem very confident.. maybe they'll be the ones let down.

AmpLee said:

The Pats better hope it's not about physical. No team in the NFL is more physical than the Niners.

The Pats best strategy is to be smarter. The Niners are a team led by a relatively young coaching staff with a young QB at the helm and they are susceptible to young mistakes like not getting plays in on time, offensive line penalties, and poor decisions regarding challenges and TOs. That being said, this physicality of the Niners is far superior and if your coach wants to match physical prowess, the Pats will be sorely mistaken in their gameplan.

Last year the Saints tried to go helmet to helmet with us an Whitner set the tone by smashing Pierre Thomas so hard he coughed up the ball at the goal line. I see this game going in a similar direction regardless of the fact it's a year later.

Our defense isn't vaunted because we hold people to the fewest points in the game, it's because we hit you in the mouth so hard you don't want to play offense. It might sound like smack talk, but I'm proud of our ability to be more physical than our opponent.

That being said, Brady is a master at neutralizing the effect of an aggressive D and your offense is nothing to sneeze at, especially since it matches up well against a defense that has susceptibility in the passing game.

No matter what, this will be a fantastic game and I can't wait to see how it turns out. However, to your dismay, we will knock the snot out of you and win the game by a narrow margin.

-Amp

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I think the 49ers are the most physical defense in the league, but that's because of their linebackers. It's like the Patriots when Spikes is playing well. However, when it comes to the D-line, things are different. The Smith brothers are undersized, and that's going to give an edge to the Patriots on the running plays, because Patriots O-linemen tend to be very good at passing off players on running plays (less so when it comes to pass blocking). If Mankins and Connolly are healthy, we should see some excellent second level action, and the winners there will determine whether or not the Patriots can grind the 49ers down.

I think a healthy Mankins wins a hitting contest against a Willis or Bowman. Time will tell, though.

IllegalContact said:

to me it comes down to a few things....

patience - the teams that have beaten the niners have done it mostly by sticking to the run even though you are averaging less than 4 ypc

pass protection - in 2 of their 3 losses, the niners defense did not have a sack

keeping the QB in front of you - this is where the pats sporadic pass rush may serve to help them. keeping kapernick in the pocket would likely be the thing that kills him

Click to expand...

All right on, especially the containment of Kapernick. If they can do that and the secondary can get enough coverage on the patterns, the 9ers are done offensively.

I don't think Brady and the O-line will have any more trouble with the 9ers D than they did with HOU. Pats line went out and met the HOU front and kept them in close contact while Brady's quick releases neutralized the pass rush. He should be able to score a ton again. SF is no more motivated than HOU was,

An early jump to a 2-TD lead will force Kapernick into making bad plays and getting picked off, IMO. Just the smell of the chance of a blowout might panick the kid. BB has a way of dealing with Rookie QBs

RhodyPatriot said:

The Patriots and Tom Brady have not played the 49'ers in years yet Brady was on the radio yesterday singing the praises of Niner defensive players by name. TB has been studying that D for weeks in anticipation of this game. If any QB is going to throw on that group and exploit their weakness it's going to be Tom Brady.

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This is not an exaggeration:

Tom Brady started prep for 49ers after Thanksgiving - NFL.com

I imagine BB's been studying it all season in anticipation of this matchup.

Hello, signed up to discuss the game. Couple of things about the Niners from my perspective:

- The niner running game is actually very sophisticated. They don't just run I formations up the middle. They get crafty with a lot of pulling lineman, traps and of course the read option. Plus, the running game has been able to wear teams down over the course of the game.

- Kap is learning, but he does bring a different element to the offense, IMO. While this is hotly debated among niner fans, he is not afraid to make throws into tight windows, and has been very good protecting the football (outside the infamous pitch play against STL). And Crabtree has been very good as a possession WR this year. He finds holes. The big mystery is Vernon Davis. Even us Niner fans can't figure out why he isn't a bigger part of the offense.

- The D is as physical as they seem. They tend to give up yards between the 30s but stiffen up very well after that. Many games I have have thought the opposing team was able to move the ball but only ended up with like 13 or 17 points. And while their takeaways have dropped this year, they are in form.

- The RBs who have hurt the D are the big bruising types, ie Lynch and Steven Jackson. They usually play very well against the smaller shifty types because Bowman and Willis are so fast and don't let RBs get the edge very often. The other thing is the Niner D is VERY good at tackling. They very rarely miss tackles.

To me, it comes down to pressure on Brady. The Niners have to make his life hell. It seems to me that is what the Giants have been successful against NE in the recent past.

And no, I don't like the Niners chances if they get down 14. I'm not too worried about the weather, cause I do think the Niners are built like a cold weather team. With that said, Kap is the question mark. But, he has played well in the big games he has played thus far.

Oh, and Aldon Smith, for some reason, explodes on primetime games. Here is to a good game.

IllegalContact said:

the houston game was actually a good prep for the niners.....both teams are the speedy 1 gap version of the 3-4.....the only time the pats really had a problem with this defense was when the chargers had that monster NT in the middle (don't remember his nae...williams maybe?)

the common element between the texans and the niners is that while they are fast, they are a little light...there's not much size after sopoaga for a 3-4, and I think you can move the pile in 4 yard chunks pretty consistently.....not the mantra of today's offenses, but thats why their defense is the way it is.....pressure

hoomanawanui will have a huge game without being seen in the stats

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In all this discussion of physicality, the overlooked fact is that the 49ers are talented, but rather small and light. Back with the Giants, Parcells and Belichick showed that Great Small teams could be dominated, by Great BIG teams.

It one of the reasons that the Patriots under Belichick have done very well against the physical Steelers, even when the Pats D was rebuilding, immature and undermanned.

This Patriots D has great size on the D-line and the three man LB crew of Mayo, Spikes and Hightower is both extremely talented, and also very big.

It is the league's next big and dominant LB crew, composed of a pair of First round and a Second round draft selection,all with Probowl potential.

The league leading turnover numbers, persistent through the last three seasons, is the manifest result of fast, talented, but perhaps immature and incomplete secondary. The talent has been assembled and if it can remain on the field, this secondary can become very well respected too.

A good rule of thumb is to always go with the Team with the better QB. Kapernack may be an eventual improvement, of just adequate Alex Smith, but he needs a year or two of more seasoning, IMHO.