Going for it on 4th down was CORRECT...here's why...

ATippett56 said:

I have a little more faith in this New England Patriots defense than you do.

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It has absolutely nothing to do with faith in the defense. They can still potentially stop them from the 37! One could argue that the people who think it was the wrong call are the ones who have no faith in the defense.

BSR said:

Low probability? Converting a 5 yard pass is low probability?

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Yes, on 4th and 5 there is a low probability of conversion, I'd speculate much more so than a standard 4th and 1 yard type situation. We'd see more 4th and 5 yard conversion attempts if it was considered a high probability play.

It was a risk, but against Manning, I could see why Belichick went for it.

However, it was the most unclutch play from our offense all day.

JonVaughnTD said:

It has absolutely nothing to do with faith in the defense. They can still potentially stop them from the 37! One could argue that the people who think it was the wrong call are the ones who have no faith in the defense.

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Statistically, it's alot harder for an offense to score a touchdown on a 80 yard drive than a 43 yard drive.

PATRIOTSFANINPA said:

My point is NO ONE makes this thread if the Pats lose the game......it's always easy to say it was the right call AFTER they win,very obvious.

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Of course you would be wrong. Lots were saying that Belichick made the right call. Belichick Was Right

JonVaughnTD said:

It has absolutely nothing to do with faith in the defense. They can still potentially stop them from the 37! One could argue that the people who think it was the wrong call are the ones who have no faith in the defense.

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I have faith in the front 7......I don't know how you can have a lot of faith in the secondary unless you see something I don't.

edgeofepic said:

Yes, on 4th and 5 there is a low probability of conversion, I'd speculate much more so than a standard 4th and 1 yard type situation. We'd see more 4th and 5 yard conversion attempts if it was considered a high probability play.

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We should absolutely see a lot more 4th and 5 (and 4th and anything) attempts. It is a huge flaw in logic for a lot of coaches in the NFL. It's math. The positive expected variance of going for it when you are in your opponents side of the field is much higher than it is from punting.

ATippett56 said:

I have a little more faith in this New England Patriots defense than you do.

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I have a little more faith in Brady than you do.

BSR said:

This is utter nonsense. You kill the clock by making first downs and holding the ball. This is the type of thinking that has allowed opposing teams to mount comebacks throughout the history of football, especially in this age of high completion percentages. The objective is to continue to hold the ball and score if possible.

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You have to look at the risks and rewards of each situation on its own. In this particular case, the Patriots had a 17 point lead with about five minutes left. Obviously, converting the 4th and 5 is the best of all scenarios, but you can say that about any fourth down situation. I agreed with 4th and 2, but when you have a 17 point lead with five minutes left, you punt the ball.

For the sake of argument, let's assume Peyton Manning was going to score no matter what. If they pinned them back and employed a conservative defensive strategy that makes the Broncos earn it, they could have been up by ten with around two minutes left. That's a far better scenario then the scenario you're faced with if you fail to convert on the 4th and 5 and let up a TD.

JonVaughnTD said:

Do not be results oriented. What happened on that play was basically the worst possible result (other than a defensive TD). Losing a ton of yards on a fumble is almost never going to happen, a pick 6 is rarely going to happen...its not something that you ever should think about when making a decision on whether or not to for it.

Going for it was the right play. In that situation they should go for it every time...and I really hope Belichick doesn't get gunshy the next time it comes up. He truly understand situations like this better than anybody else in football, so I don't think he will change, thankfully.

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The Pats were up by THREE scores. They had no need to 'ice' the game by going for it on 4th and 5. 4th and 5 is a pretty difficult down and distance. As opposed to 4th and 2 where the odds are much more in your favor to converting. Nobody could have predicted the result but you have to keep in mind that you do RISK having those sorts of plays happening on a pressure packed 4th down.

Mesko doesn't just have a booming leg, he's one of the best in the game at the 'coffin' corner, ie pinning the opposition within their 20 yard line. Making Manning drive 80-90+ yards for the score vs giving him the ball at midfield is a HUGE difference. And it allowed the Broncos to score VERY quickly! Compound the risky 4th down call with Ridley's fumble later and it could easily have led to a loss if a certain Ninkovich hadn't stepped up with a clutch forced fumble later on.

Fact is we gave the Broncos life when we could have easily punted it and made them drive the distance to score THREE times instead of gift wrapping them a chance to score quickly and cut the lead to a TWO score game. I respect BB. He's a genius, but even geniuses make mistakes or outsmart themselves, or perhaps this call was on McDaniels, but it reminds me too much of the Pats getting too cutesy like the disastrous Chung fake punt play. Stop outsmarting yourself and just play the field position game when you have the lead!

ATippett56 said:

Statistically, it's alot harder for an offense to score a touchdown on a 80 yard drive than a 43 yard drive.

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It's even harder for them to score when they don't have the ball.

PATRIOTSFANINPA said:

I don't know if that was the actual possession,what quarter was that in?

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4th. I looked through the entire play by play and didn't see another, although I could have missed it.

Going for it was clearly the right call. A bad punt nets you 15 yards. A good one, maybe 30. For everyone saying that would have taken another minute off the clock, I doubt it. The Broncos were rolling up yards so fast that 20 to 25 extra yards was negligible under the circumstances of the game. The Ravens took what? Less than 40 seconds to go 85 yards?

Whereas a first down means game effectively is over -- at least it would have ensured they couldn't lose without a successful onside kick. From a risk/reward, it is a no brainer. One play to win versus 25 net yards? Easy call. Unfortunately, the one thing that can't happen, did. If you are going to do it you need to ensure you go forward. Even a deep pick is ok there. You must coach your qb to throw there no matter what. Just do it in the middle of the field and give yourself a chance for a penalty and a pick is almost as good as a punt. Sack is the only bad outcome. Sack fumble is worse.

What bothers me most is not playing 3d down like you intend to go for it on fourth. It should have been run, run. A run on third gets closer to a first down and either uses 40 seconds or causes Denver to use a time out.

Also, I don't understand snapping the ball down after down with 15 to 20 seconds on the play clock with a 17 point lead.

JonVaughnTD said:

We should absolutely see a lot more 4th and 5 (and 4th and anything) attempts. It is a huge flaw in logic for a lot of coaches in the NFL. It's math. The positive expected variance of going for it when you are in your opponents side of the field is much higher than it is from punting.

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It's not just math, it's game theory. Often times, the best decision is the one that is likely to allow the lowest amount of negative results and the lowest amount of positive results. I'm not saying you should play Martyball, but when you have a 17 point lead with five minutes left, you ******* punt.

JonVaughnTD said:

It's even harder for them to score when they don't have the ball.

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Your argument is major fail.

BSR said:

4th. I looked through the entire play by play and didn't see another, although I could have missed it.

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I was referring to earlier in the game,I believe just before the half

I didn't DVR the game (thank God)
But I distinctly remember thinking 'why not go for it here? WTF?'

hovis said:

When it's late in the game and you've got a lead that can be overcome, time is important. When time's important, field position is EXTREMELY important. The strategy on that entire drive was maddening. They should have been killing the clock and willing to punt. I love aggressive playcalling as much as anyone, but there's a difference between aggressive and stupid.

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On the drive in question, the Pats ran the ball on 4 of 7 plays. They got gains of 3, 3, 5 and 0. Of the two passes, 1 was for 5 yards to Welker that got them a 1st down and the 2nd was to Lloyd and it was incomplete.

So, how was that strategy on the ENTIRE drive maddening??

resdubwhite said:

it was a horrible call.

Telegraphed pass play too. with no protection for the qb.

We are blessed Brady didnt get badly hurt.

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What was a horrible call? Going for it? If so, why? Because the OP gave reasons as to why he (and others including myself) thought it was a good call. Going 'nuh-uh' doesn't pass for a rebuttal, this isn't the presidential debates for crissakes.

As far as the actual play called? I'm fine with it. We had run a lot on 3rd and medium today I think another run might have been too obvious. If we execute on this play we're not having this discussion.

DaBruinz said:

On the drive in question, the Pats ran the ball on 4 of 7 plays. They got gains of 3, 3, 5 and 0. Of the two passes, 1 was for 5 yards to Welker that got them a 1st down and the 2nd was to Lloyd and it was incomplete.

So, how was that strategy on the ENTIRE drive maddening??

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The pace. They weren't letting 40 seconds burn off between each play.

BSR said:

I have a little more faith in Brady than you do.

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Not the manner Brady was throwing the football in the second half:

First half: Brady 17/20

Second half: Brady 6/11