Well, it's Patriots week for us! Complete Broncos Breakdown

everlong said:

The Patriots averaged 475 yards and 43 points in the two meetings last year. They also averaged 143.5 yards rushing so it wasn't all spreading it out and the Patriots running game is better this year. I don't see where Denver's defense is that much better that they'll slow the Patriots down unless it's Denver's offense playing ball control and stealing the time of possession which Fox likes to do.

On offense there's no question Manning vs Tebow an epic upgrade. There's a reason the Patriots cut Koppen however so Manning having time to do damage will be the question. Koppen will also hurt their running game. I think the matchup of the Denver O-Line and Patriots D-line is the big one in this game. If the Patriots win that battle I think they win by two scores. If they don't it'll be a team with the ball last type of game.

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It is a vastly different defense that last year, with a new DC in Del Rio, a healthy Von Miller, and 7 new starters. They are fantastic against the run, particularly up the middle.

Koppen is still an upgrade from JD Walton, the difference was astounding last week. With Walton playing the first half and Koppen the second. While Koppen may be worse than he once was, you overrate JD Walton. Koppen is an improvement.

It's a better NFL with Peyton playing so it'll be good to see him back in Foxboro...but the Donkeys are gonna get smoked on Sunday

RYObroncosfan said:

He won't be throwing 60 yard bombs, but he doesn't have a "noodle for an arm." There's a difference between losing a little velocity and not being able to throw a football. Maybe you just haven't seen him play yet...but he can still throw the ball and get it to where he wants it pretty damn well.

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Thanks for the Bronco perspective. I can't be the only one that sees an issue with Manning's throws. I watched a replay of the Raider game and by my count he threw exactly 3 passes that weren't screens, dump-offs, slants/drags or dig routes. Looking at those 3 passes:

- A fade into the end zone that was late and took the receiver out of bounds

- A 6 yard out pass

- The frequently replayed TD pass up the seam to the TE. While everyone seems to use this as proof of Manning's arm strength, the pass was painfully slow and wobbled like it was thrown in high winds. It got the job done but better safety play would have either picked that off and/or killed the receiver. That TD throw was lauded as a throw into a tight window...but the lack of pace on the throw allowed the defense to make it a tight window.

Literally every other pass was thrown behind the line of scrimmage or in front of the defense. Great job by Manning to find open guys and get excellent YAC. But horrific plan by the Raiders to sit back and let it happen. Why not challenge Manning to throw deep sideline routes or throw over defenders up the middle?

Atlanta and Houston did just that and ended up ahead by 3 scores before they backed off and let Manning get back into the game. He threw a couple of bad interceptions against the Falcons when he had to push the ball downfield. Manning had only a couple of attempts downfield against the Texans and they had the same wobble to them.

Manning just seems to have a difficult time driving the ball downfield. If I had to guess, it seems like a grip issue when he isn't on top of his throws (meaning an earlier release point for elevated throws). I hope the Pats force Manning to throw intermediate/deep passes outside the numbers. If there is any weather at all (or even high humidity), I'm betting his downfield throws will be more punt than pass.

Papa-pwn said:

It is a vastly different defense that last year, with a new DC in Del Rio, a healthy Von Miller, and 7 new starters. They are fantastic against the run, particularly up the middle.

Koppen is still an upgrade from JD Walton, the difference was astounding last week. With Walton playing the first half and Koppen the second. While Koppen may be worse than he once was, you overrate JD Walton. Koppen is an improvement.

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The numbers look slightly better but you've also played the Steelers 31st in rushing offense, Oakland 32nd, Atlanta 18th, and Houston 9th.

Houston the only team in the top half rushed for 152 yards on 34 carries for a 4.5 YPC.

I'll take your word on Koppen vs Walton but if he's that much better why wasn't he starting? Could be they want the kid to develop but I would think they would be in win now mentality given Peyton's window isn't huge.

RYObroncosfan said:

I'm not really sure where I lost you...

"Similar to how Brady isn't the same QB he once was but is still dominant"

You can't possibly believe that 35 year-old Brady is the exact same QB 28 year-old Brady was. I said he was still dominant, because he is, but unless you're watching different Patriots games than I am, you'll notice there's a few more throws every now and then from him that we never would've seen in the past.

If stats told the whole story than Peyton's #'s right now would suggest that he hasn't lost a step either. A career 64.9% completion % is at 64.7% this season, a career 7.6 yards per attempt is at...7.6 this year. He's averaged a little over 30 touchdowns a season, and is on pace for 32 this year. You get my point.

Neither are the same QB they were pre-injury and in their prime, but they're no slouch at all at this stage of their career, either. We'll see how Peyton holds up throughout the season to see if they are exactly similar, for now Brady gets the edge...but my point was that they are both dominant QBs who have aged a little.

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...like what throws?

It looks like your evaluation problems have a little more to do with a lack of understanding of what it means to have lost one TE in the two TE system.

Metaphors said:

Thanks for the Bronco perspective. I can't be the only one that sees an issue with Manning's throws. I watched a replay of the Raider game and by my count he threw exactly 3 passes that weren't screens, dump-offs, slants/drags or dig routes. Looking at those 3 passes:

- A fade into the end zone that was late and took the receiver out of bounds

- A 6 yard out pass

- The frequently replayed TD pass up the seam to the TE. While everyone seems to use this as proof of Manning's arm strength, the pass was painfully slow and wobbled like it was thrown in high winds. It got the job done but better safety play would have either picked that off and/or killed the receiver. That TD throw was lauded as a throw into a tight window...but the lack of pace on the throw allowed the defense to make it a tight window.

Literally every other pass was thrown behind the line of scrimmage or in front of the defense. Great job by Manning to find open guys and get excellent YAC. But horrific plan by the Raiders to sit back and let it happen. Why not challenge Manning to throw deep sideline routes or throw over defenders up the middle?

Atlanta and Houston did just that and ended up ahead by 3 scores before they backed off and let Manning get back into the game. He threw a couple of bad interceptions against the Falcons when he had to push the ball downfield. Manning had only a couple of attempts downfield against the Texans and they had the same wobble to them.

Manning just seems to have a difficult time driving the ball downfield. If I had to guess, it seems like a grip issue when he isn't on top of his throws (meaning an earlier release point for elevated throws). I hope the Pats force Manning to throw intermediate/deep passes outside the numbers. If there is any weather at all (or even high humidity), I'm betting his downfield throws will be more punt than pass.

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Well said. I didn't see the game vs the Texans, but that's the only one so far that hints that Manning can hurt a team deep. When Manning has won against the Pats w/Brady in the past he's been able to have a decent amount of success against them deep, and I'm guessing he'll have to this weekend if the Broncos are to win. Right now I have to say I have my doubts he'll be able to.

RYObroncosfan said:

...... I predicted a 2-3 start for us going into the season, followed by an 8-3 or 9-2 finish. I'm still standing by that.....

...... I'm taking the Pats first half line no matter what the spread is, but I'm taking Denver to win.

Here's too hoping for a good, injury-free game :eat2:

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If you're standing by a 2-3 start wouldn't that require a loss this week?

RYObroncosfan said:

The Running Game

McGahee has been surprisingly impressive this season. He's finding the holes and hitting them hard, breaking off big runs and picking up big first downs. Last game was probably his best, and as long as he's healthy he's a solid running back. Not elite, but he gets the job done.

Knowshon Moreno has been relegated to the bench. A few too many mistakes and he's pretty much considered a bust at this point in his career.

Lance Ball gets a little playing time, he's not much to worry about aside from the occasional 10 yard catch or five yard run.

Look for Hillman to get a few more carries this game. He was a popular late round fantasy pick, especially in keeper leagues because Denver drafted him to be the younger speedy back to counter McGahee. He was hurt the first few games, saw limited action against the Texans, but looked good last week. He showed the flashes of speed Denver drafted him for, and as he gets healthier, he'll likely become the official #2. Watch out for him on screens and especially in the open field.

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Eh...the only thing that matters in regards to their runningbacks is...

FIST MEET FACE!
http://coedbc.files.wordpress.com/2012/09/vince-wilfork-donald-jones.gif

everlong said:

The numbers look slightly better but you've also played the Steelers 31st in rushing offense, Oakland 32nd, Atlanta 18th, and Houston 9th.

Houston the only team in the top half rushed for 152 yards on 34 carries for a 4.5 YPC.

I'll take your word on Koppen vs Walton but if he's that much better why wasn't he starting? Could be they want the kid to develop but I would think they would be in win now mentality given Peyton's window isn't huge.

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Are those teams rated that low at rushing because they are bad, or because they faced a good run defense in the Broncos?

He was starting because he had the chemistry with Peyton. He and Peyton started taking snaps and working on line calls since Peyton was signed. Koppen wasn't signed until September, Walton essentially had a 5 month head start, so Koppen will have to learn all that on the job. I believe he won't do too bad though, since he has stated there are some strong similarities between Peyton's calls and Brady's. Also helps he has a few years experience of a shotgun no huddle offense.

The broncos were never satisfied with Walton as their starter, as they drafted a C(he ended up on IR) and heavily pursued Jeff Saturday.

PlainOldEd said:

If you're standing by a 2-3 start wouldn't that require a loss this week?

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I'm hoping to be wrong. Either way, I'm wrong actually.

Although I guess either way I'm right, too.

zeroakuma said:

Eh...the only thing that matters in regards to their runningbacks is...

FIST MEET FACE!
http://coedbc.files.wordpress.com/2012/09/vince-wilfork-donald-jones.gif

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A bunch of buddies and I were watching that as it happened. Our reaction to the initial hit was the same as our reaction on the replay--every single time it was replayed.

Perfect form, and such a devastating tackle. Imagine getting hit like that without pads.

Brady_to_Moss said:

this isn't the manning of old...still rusty and not on same page as his WRs

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He still looks good to me. He can hurt us if he has a decent game. We have to get pressure on him or it will be a shootout.

I predicted a fairly tight score but I think one factor we are overlooking is the New England run game. They rushed for over 200 yards vs Buffalo and are capable of controlling the tempo of this upcoming game against Denver's D-line. It all depends on how Denver plays us, but few teams are capable of playing the run well when they also have to defend the pass. The Pats double tight end set will create mismatches. If Denver gears up to stop the run we will pass and if they try to stop the pass we will run. That's really what bears watching, because if the Pats OL can dominate the run like they did against Buffalo, it will end up being a long day for the Broncos defense.

Nice post. Judging by Belichick's comments that this the exact same Manning offense as with Indy, I'm willing to be a lot of money that he doesn't believe that at all. It will be interesting to see how this plays out. If Manning no longer does have the same deep strike capabilities, that certainly changes the chess match a lot. In addition, the Patriots are a lot faster on defense than they have been in recent years, but they still lack the wisdom of the championship veterans like Vrabel, Bruschi, Seymour, and Harrison. This will be a competitive game, and the Pats will lose if they don't make some big plays down the stretch.

As the years go on, I appreciate Manning more and more. He the only truly worthy rival for Brady. Guys come and go, the media hypes them up, yet we all know that Brady and Manning are the two greatest masters of the position, and they now represent a nostalgic "old guard" of the NFL. It will be a sad day when they're no longer playing.

This will be a close one, havent beat peyton by more than one score since 05. I think the defense is able to stop the broncos on the final drive and pats take this one.

VJCPatriot said:

I predicted a fairly tight score but I think one factor we are overlooking is the New England run game. They rushed for over 200 yards vs Buffalo and are capable of controlling the tempo of this upcoming game against Denver's D-line. It all depends on how Denver plays us, but few teams are capable of playing the run well when they also have to defend the pass. The Pats double tight end set will create mismatches. If Denver gears up to stop the run we will pass and if they try to stop the pass we will run. That's really what bears watching, because if the Pats OL can dominate the run like they did against Buffalo, it will end up being a long day for the Broncos defense.

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I think you are hitting on a key aspect of the game. The Bronco LBs are fast but not very stout. If the Pats can handle the Denver DL (a much less imposing group than they just faced) and get their TEs to the 2nd level, the Pats should be able to do well on the ground. The Bronco safeties make a lot of tackles in the running game, but I can't see them cheating up much against Brady.

On the other side, the key person is going to be Ninkovich. The Broncos run very well up the middle, but that should be muted with injury replacements (Koppen, Ramirez) going against Wilfork/Love/Spikes. Their other strength is getting around right end...which has actually been a bit of a problem for the Pats defense. If Ninkovich can set the edge effectively on his side, I'm thinking the Broncos will have a lot of difficulty running the ball.

(Quick aside...one of the most under-reported stories of the Pats season so far is how well Jones is playing against the run. His ability to stay effective regardless of the situation has been amazing...particularly for a rookie.)

These aspects become even more important if the weather is cool and wet. Consider that outside of the Atlanta dome game, Manning has only played in warm, dry, low humidity, thin air conditions at home. Even then, his longer passes have been anything but tight spirals. In cool, wet, high humidity conditions on Sunday, Manning may really struggle to get the ball outside the numbers and/or downfield. Brady's throws are generally unaffected by the elements.

All of this means nothing if the Pats don't have a gameplan to take advantage. If the Pats play off and allow Manning to complete 6 yard screens and slants at will, the result will look a lot like the Raider game last week. If the Pats press up and force Manning to throw through/over defenders, it will look more like the first half of the Falcon game.

RYObroncosfan said:

I'm not really sure where I lost you...

"Similar to how Brady isn't the same QB he once was but is still dominant"

You can't possibly believe that 35 year-old Brady is the exact same QB 28 year-old Brady was. I said he was still dominant, because he is, but unless you're watching different Patriots games than I am, you'll notice there's a few more throws every now and then from him that we never would've seen in the past.

If stats told the whole story than Peyton's #'s right now would suggest that he hasn't lost a step either. A career 64.9% completion % is at 64.7% this season, a career 7.6 yards per attempt is at...7.6 this year. He's averaged a little over 30 touchdowns a season, and is on pace for 32 this year. You get my point.

Neither are the same QB they were pre-injury and in their prime, but they're no slouch at all at this stage of their career, either. We'll see how Peyton holds up throughout the season to see if they are exactly similar, for now Brady gets the edge...but my point was that they are both dominant QBs who have aged a little.

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2012 Brady is a hell of a lot better than 2005 Brady.

RYObroncosfan said:

I'm not really sure where I lost you...

"Similar to how Brady isn't the same QB he once was but is still dominant"

You can't possibly believe that 35 year-old Brady is the exact same QB 28 year-old Brady was. I said he was still dominant, because he is, but unless you're watching different Patriots games than I am, you'll notice there's a few more throws every now and then from him that we never would've seen in the past.

If stats told the whole story than Peyton's #'s right now would suggest that he hasn't lost a step either. A career 64.9% completion % is at 64.7% this season, a career 7.6 yards per attempt is at...7.6 this year. He's averaged a little over 30 touchdowns a season, and is on pace for 32 this year. You get my point.

Neither are the same QB they were pre-injury and in their prime, but they're no slouch at all at this stage of their career, either. We'll see how Peyton holds up throughout the season to see if they are exactly similar, for now Brady gets the edge...but my point was that they are both dominant QBs who have aged a little.

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What you are missing is that the last 4+ years (aside from 08 when he was out) have been Brady best.
Last season he broke the alltime record for passing yards. The year before he was the only unanimous MVP in NFL history. 2007 was legendary.
This year he is playing just as he has.
Perhaps to say Brady isn't what he used to be is to say he keeps improving while saying Manning isn't what he used to be is commenting on his decline, which has been going on longer than since he showed up in Colorado.

Froob said:

This will be a close one, havent beat peyton by more than one score since 05. I think the defense is able to stop the broncos on the final drive and pats take this one.

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You kidding me brah? I hope this D is never put in that situation again.

Let Brady be the one to get the last shot and let the other team sweat bullets. I've had enough of last second losses so i'd rather lose with Brady failing the comeback drive.

Hope they go for it on 4th & short with more than a minute to go, to take this game and not punt the ball like the Carolina did. Nowadays with these QBs and PI calls teams that are good on offense should go more for it as conservative approach brings failures more often than not.

The major key to this game is the Patriots Running game. Since the Broncos have a smaller front 7, albeit fast and athletic, it will be a perfect opportunity for the Patriots to showcase Ridley and Bolden by running it straight up the middle pretty much negating Dumerville and Von Miller.