The Patriots' Record in the 2nd Round

Yeah, I read with a cursory eye Mayo's magnum opuses on the drafts the last decade or so of various teams.

However, I'm focused like a laser beam on the recent past. I'm not an antiquarian about this.

I'm convinced we could have won the last SB with a speedster. So, yeah, this is what I come away with.

And if Dowling goes down, ahem, again, you'll be hearing much more of it.

State said:

Yeah, I read with a cursory eye Mayo's magnum opuses on the drafts the last decade or so of various teams.

However, I'm focused like a laser beam on the recent past. I'm not an antiquarian about this.

I'm convinced we could have won the last SB with a speedster. So, yeah, this is what I come away with.

And if Dowling goes down, ahem, again, you'll be hearing much more of it.

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The Patriots could have won the Super Bowl if the ball was 6 inches to the inside on one play (Welker), or 6 inches to the outside on another play (Manningham), OR 97 other equally valid and more immediate points.

When we are talking about winning or losing the Super Bowl based on total ball placement variance of a foot, than almost any change could be asserted to be the difference between a win or a loss.

State said:

However, I'm focused like a laser beam on the recent past. I'm not an antiquarian about this.

I'm convinced we could have won the last SB with a speedster. So, yeah, this is what I come away with.

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So the 2011 Patriots didn't need any more help at defensive back? Weird, I could have sworn...

State said:

I don't think you understand what a risk it was to take Ras-I Dowling so early in the second round in 2011. So far the conventional wisdom has proven correct--he's an injury waiting to happen, not a good value where he was taken. Glass IR Dowling is in the house.

And if Dowling goes down again...

Then Belichick will look as though he were imprudent.

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Do you know how to do decision process analysis, pre-facto instead of post-facto?

Looking at the process of the decision instead of the end result as the result is unknowable at the point of the decision provides more insight than chirping from the peanut gallery.

Here is what was known pre-draft 2011 about Dowling --- very talented, but has some injury issues. The talent when healthy is sufficient for 1st round grades but is downgraded due to injury risk to a high 2nd rounder.

NFL Draft Scout
NFL.com
Walter Football

We also know that the Patriots tend to go for sure things in the 1st round and then go after tarnished gems in the 2nd round (the reason why a player drops to the 2nd round is that there is something (production, size, competition, speed, injury history etc) that is not prototypical). That strategy produces boom picks (Gronkowski with back issues, Vollmer with level of competition and back issues), not yet proven picks (Dowling) and busts, but so does every other drafting strategy. The relevant question is what proportion of each category (success/failure/not yet proven) each strategy picks.

But going back to Dowling, the Patriots took a very talented player at a position of need who was coached by a former NFL coach with Parcells/Belicheck tree connections, and had some injury concerns at roughly the spot that conventional wisdom was projecting that player to be picked (late 1st, early 2nd)

That too me does not look like the Patriots deviated from their drafting philosophy of being willing to take risks in the 2nd round for high ceiling players nor does it look like Belicheck telling everyong that he is smarter than they are.....

Not every pick will work out, and not every pick will be a 5 time Pro-Bowler. Failure is inherent within the drafting process, and once the draft gets past the blue-chippers (where at least one flame-out failure is probable), every prospect has at least a few warts on them.

State said:

Are you talking about the MVP of the Senior Bowl.

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No. That would be Antwan Randle El, according to the Senior Bowl website. I was talking about Deion Branch, an entirely different WR.

Official Website of the Senior Bowl: All-Time Senior Bowl Roster

State said:

Maybe some considered him a slight reach. With an emphasis on slight.

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It's hard to find material as far back as the 2002 draft. But here's NFL Draft Countdown's prospect ranking lists and final mock draft:

Draft Countdown - 2002 NFL Draft Rankings
Draft Countdown - 2002 Final Mock Draft

Branch was rated as the #22 WR and didn't make the final 3 round mock.

Greg Knopping did a review of BB's draft picks last year and rated Branch #6 on his list of BB's best draft picks. Knopping noted:

Undersized but explosive, Branch was seen as a late day one or early day two pick by most teams (day one equaled three rounds in that time). But the Patriots were bold with their selection of Branch.

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Top 10 Belichick-Era Patriots Draft Successes: #6 Deion Branch - Pats Pulpit

Again, it's hard to find corroborative material, but I don't think it's a stretch to say that many people thought that Branch was a reach when the Pats took him at the end of the 2nd round in 2002. But remember it however you like.

The Gr8est said:

Having a titanium rod permanently installed in one of your wrists from injury, while still in college, isn't the best omen either.

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Having the rod in there to begin with, not so much..

Having the first rod be DEFECTIVE and SNAP during a practice where you landed on it is a bad omen.

Landing on your other wrist just as you are breaking out and having it snap similarly to your original injury is just pure dumb luck.

State said:

I don't think you understand what a risk it was to take Ras-I Dowling so early in the second round in 2011. So far the conventional wisdom has proven correct--he's an injury waiting to happen, not a good value where he was taken. Glass IR Dowling is in the house.

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How has the "Conventional Wisdom" proven correct? Because Dowling's injury history in college was over-blown by people like yourself? Prior to Dowling's senior year, he'd played in 35 of 37 games. You act like him suffering the knee injury and then the fractured ankle were done on purpose.. Or is it just that you are upset with the Pats because they chose Wilson this year and you had to eat some of your words on him?

Dowling only went on the IR because the Pats needed the roster spot due to the OTHER injuries they had.

State said:

And, according to Greg Bedard's analysis in the Globe of Dowling in the OTAs, he's struggling from where he was last year.

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Yes, and Greg Bedard is the be all end all in talent evaluation regarding the OTAs..

State said:

And it was a gamble that didn't need to be taken. It was Belichick saying, screw you, conventional wisdom, I know better. But the gamble so far hasn't paid off.

We could have had that deep burner that would have made the Giants defense much more suspect in the SB if we had taken Torrey out of Maryland. The Ravens took him later in the same round.

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Yes, it was such a gamble that Dowling was able to miss all of TC but still be the starting LCB opposite McCourty for the first game of the season despite having Leigh Bodden and Arrington on the roster..

Any bets that Torrey Smith wasn't even on the Pats radar at the time because having a burner isn't what the Pats offense needed at the time. But, since you brought Torrey Smith up, here is the run down on Smith's route running abilities from NFLDraftscout.com

NFLDraftscout.com said:

Generally asked to run only vertical, comeback drags across the middle and quick screens in this offense. Has been able to gain separation largely due to his speed, though he shows good footwork and balance to develop in this area.

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One of the big issues people have is that our "middle" is too clogged with Welker, Gronk and Hernandez. Now you want Smith in there as well since that is one of the better routes that he runs???

State said:

And if Dowling goes down again...

Then Belichick will look as though he were imprudent.

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The only people who will think that Belichick would look imprudent are the people who are arrogant enough to think that they know more than Belichick and the teams medical staff..

State said:

Yeah, I read with a cursory eye Mayo's magnum opuses on the drafts the last decade or so of various teams.

However, I'm focused like a laser beam on the recent past. I'm not an antiquarian about this.

I'm convinced we could have won the last SB with a speedster. So, yeah, this is what I come away with.

And if Dowling goes down, ahem, again, you'll be hearing much more of it.

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*ROFLMAO* You really are such a tool. Ever since you had to eat your words on Tavon Wilson, you've had your panties in a wad over Belichick and his drafting during the 2nd round.

I find it laughable that you essentially threaten the board with more of your ignorant ranting if Dowling get's injured again, but you make not guarantees to eat your words and admit you were talking out your arse if proven wrong..

Typical blowhard who is arrogant enough to think he knows more than Belichick.

Oh, on a separate note. How would Smith have helped the Pats win the SB if he can't run crisp timing routes? Which is one of the knocks against him....

State said:

I don't think you understand what a risk it was to take Ras-I Dowling so early in the second round in 2011. So far the conventional wisdom has proven correct--he's an injury waiting to happen, not a good value where he was taken. Glass IR Dowling is in the house.

And, according to Greg Bedard's analysis in the Globe of Dowling in the OTAs, he's struggling from where he was last year.

And it was a gamble that didn't need to be taken. It was Belichick saying, screw you, conventional wisdom, I know better. But the gamble so far hasn't paid off.

We could have had that deep burner that would have made the Giants defense much more suspect in the SB if we had taken Torrey out of Maryland. The Ravens took him later in the same round.

And if Dowling goes down again...

Then Belichick will look as though he were imprudent.

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Or Jabaal Sheard, another Pass-Rusher to help Mark Anderson put more pressure on shEli Manning
when it mattered most. Otherwise, I agree w/ the premise.

patchick said:

Wow, you read this whole thread and come away with THIS?

The whole point of this thread is that you can't look at the success of a single pick in isolation; in the wildly imperfect science of drafting you have to look more broadly at the success of the team's strategy and evaluation processes. So what's your takeaway message?

I guess you're saying that the Patriots are fundamentally misguided in their willingness to take a chance on players who have fallen due to serious health concerns. Draft picks like Dowling, Gronkowski and Cannon should never have been made and represent foolhardy arrogance on the Patriots' part. I can't agree; I think it it can make sense to take a change on a highly talented prospect with an injury history vs. a healthy JAG.

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Cannon was taken in the 5th round. His case does not apply here.

FYI, highly relevant thread on the main forum:

http://www.patsfans.com/new-england...19369-interesting-analysis-pats-drafting.html

(I'm leaving it there for now because it seems like a general-interest teambuilding topic for the offseason.)

mayoclinic said:

I made a huge mistake last year of evaluating JJ Watt too early. Watt was a relatively new convert to the DE position, and in the tape I saw of him from earlier in the year he was somewhat stiff. Box commented on this as well, and I think considered him more of a developmental guy. But Watt progressed at an incredible rate, and by the end of the season he was a totally different player. Probably as a result, I wasn't as high on him as several other people were, and I was dead wrong.

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I LOVED Watt going into the draft. What I saw on tape was a rangy, freakishly athletic, and explosive 300 pounder making plays that most defensive ends just can't make. Too bad Houston scooped him up at pick #11.

But BB's selection of Solder turned out to be prescient. Light retired this year and the Pats would have been in scramble mode if they hadn't taken Solder in 2011. Solder has a great toolset along with size, length and athleticism that can't be taught. He was forced into action early his rookie year due to Vollmer's injury and appeared solid when thrown into the fire.

The Pats success in the second round although it may only be 50/50 is about average for the NFL. But the difference is that the Pats have a lot more QUANTITY of second round picks. That allows them to create more depth and overall talent on the team.

Depth comes in handy when injury occurs but considering the limitations of the 53 man roster and how hard it is to stockpile talent, injury can still play a major factor in the NFL, especially the playoffs where the margin of error is so slim and the competition is that much more tough and talented.

2008 - Brady's injury pretty much put us out of the playoff picture although Cassel played valiantly and earned himself a starting gig with KC as a result. When Welker went down with injury that spelled the end of the Pats playoff run in 2009. Gronk's injury in 2011 might have cost us the Superbowl.

All you can do is build the best team you can, the deepest team you can, coach em up as best you can, build their mindset and toughness, then let it ride. Each team is different. But 2012 holds a special promise. BB has finally got his warriors - the most versatile weapons for a 3-4 defense are the edge rushers. Chandler, Hightower, Bequette, and Scott offer intriguing possibilities for BB on defense to attack, harrass, and corral the enemy QB.

I know we are going to see fireworks on offense in 2012, that's a given with all the weapons we have and Brady still in his prime. What I'd really like to see is the emergence of a defense that can hold onto leads in the 4th quarter. A defense that can rattle some teeth and cause some sleepless nights for the opposing QB. Let's get the swagger back on D and have a lot of fun watching the Pats campaign unfold in 2012! Let's get another ring! And in the name of all that is holy, can we PLEASE beat the damn giants?!

VJCPatriot said:

But the difference is that the Pats have a lot more QUANTITY of second round picks.

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you're excluding the math of the otehr possibility which is the 1st rounders that were foregone in the process of getting the 2nd rounds.

is giving up 1st rounders worth more 50/50 propositions in the 2nd round?

IllegalContact said:

you're excluding the math of the otehr possibility which is the 1st rounders that were foregone in the process of getting the 2nd rounds.

is giving up 1st rounders worth more 50/50 propositions in the 2nd round?

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Well, a 1st rounder is worth, on average, two 2nds. And I think it's fair to say that a 1st-round pick isn't more than a 100% proposition.

Actually, though, the Pats have very rarely given up 1st-round picks for seconds. Most of the extra 2nds were acquired by means like trading a 3rd into the future and gaining a round. (The trades of 1st rounders have usually been for a future 1st + extras.)

One exception was 2009, when the #23 overall pick ultimately turned into something like two 2nds, a 3rd and a 7th.

The Herald's Karen Guregian looks at the Pats' track record in the 2nd round:

BostonHerald.com - Blogs: The Blitz» Blog Archive » Examining the Patriots’ second-round draft picks under Bill Belichick

Guregian notes that between 2000 and 2008 the Pats had only one 2nd round pick who they signed to a second contract - OT Matt Light. But since 2009 the team has had "successes" with 2nd round picks Pat Chung, Sebastian Vollmer, Rob Gronkowski and Brandon Spikes, setting up some potentially delicate contract negotiations:

The Patriots’ newfound second-round success will have a price, and that will begin to take shape next year, if not sooner. One league source said the Patriots and Chung have not engaged in discussions over an extension, though it’s early in the process. Another league source said, “ ‘Early’ is not in the Patriots’ vocabulary” when it comes to contract extensions, and plenty around the league were shocked when they broke from the mold to sign linebacker Jerod Mayo to an extension last December.

Yet, while the Patriots are said to be “difficult” with new deals, league sources polled for this story also conceded the Pats are “consistent” with their negotiations. They’re also not the only team that operates this way. The Patriots, like any team, have most of the leverage in negotiations for early extensions in part because of the franchise tag. Plus, sources said, the Patriots love to reference quarterback Tom Brady [stats]’s decision to take less money for the good of the team in 2005, just after his third Super Bowl victory.

That will surely come into play when discussions inevitably begin with Gronkowski, who is on track to become the highest-paid tight end in NFL history. While considering others’ contracts, one independent league source projected Gronkowski would be worth an average of $9 million to $10 million per season.

The Patriots have to consider each contract as part of a collective measure, which will increase the level of difficulty on an individual basis. Then again, that’s partly because of a recent run of success with their second-round draft picks, and that’s a good problem to have, even if it’s challenging to manage.

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Pats’ second effort pays off - BostonHerald.com

State said:

Yeah, I read with a cursory eye Mayo's magnum opuses on the drafts the last decade or so of various teams.

However, I'm focused like a laser beam on the recent past. I'm not an antiquarian about this.

I'm convinced we could have won the last SB with a speedster. So, yeah, this is what I come away with.

And if Dowling goes down, ahem, again, you'll be hearing much more of it.

Click to expand...

I think it takes a few years to really evaluate draft picks, so I'll wait on Dowling. As for what might have won the SB last year, the best thing they could have done was run the ball. The pass happy offense was not a good choice against a Giants team that was horrible at the run on both sides of the ball.

FWIW, the Eagles have cut 2011 2nd round pick S Jaiquawn Jarrett out of Temple, taken #54 overall (2 spots before Shane Vereen). Meanwhile Tavon Wilson has looked like a stud in training camp and against Tennessee, though it's still early.

Cunningham and Brace have both begun redemption campaigns. If they live up to their early showings, that's quite favorable for the Patriots drafting record. Dowling looks excellent, as well. He still needs more seasoning, but he has exceptional talent. Looks like our defensive picks lately are really paying off.

Vereen is such a tease. I would love to see what he could do if healthy.

I think if we focused on early round picks at the defensive secondary, we'd all agree it has been a mixed bag at best.

I think a player like Alabama's Mark Barron, who went #7, is the missing link. His size and ability to learn a pro system coming from Saban's pro-style defense, was so coveted.

I know the Patriots were willing to trade up Up UP to pick him if he had stayed around until 11 or 12.

He's my favorite rookie so far. Mark Barron proves big hit with Buccaneers as rookie

The biggest disappointment is Patrick Chung, a second-rounder. I thought he wouldn't put himself out of position as much as he apparently does. And I read that National Football Post column by the former NFL secondary guy who says the same thing.

Bowen pans Patrick Chung's safety play

State said:

I think if we focused on early round picks at the defensive secondary, we'd all agree it has been a mixed bag at best.

I think a player like Alabama's Mark Barron, who went #7, is the missing link. His size and ability to learn a pro system coming from Saban's pro-style defense, was so coveted.

I know the Patriots were willing to trade up Up UP to pick him if he had stayed around until 11 or 12.

He's my favorite rookie so far. Mark Barron proves big hit with Buccaneers as rookie

The biggest disappointment is Patrick Chung, a second-rounder. I thought he wouldn't put himself out of position as much as he apparently does. And I read that National Football Post column by the former NFL secondary guy who says the same thing.

Bowen pans Patrick Chung's safety play

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Without getting into the 2nd round draft discussion in general again, I've been disappointed with Chung so far this year, and agree with a lot of the things in the Bowen article. As for Mark Barron, he was a top 10 pick, so he was never in our range, and it's hard to compare a 2nd round guy with a top 10 pick. But at this point if Chung doesn't show improvement over the next 10 games I'd consider whether it might make more sense to move on and re-start. The FA safety pool is rather thin, but Tavon Wilson has already looked better than Chung, and as Merrill Hoge's Tie Knot has suggested a guy like Matt Elam might be a nice fit.