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Wes Welker: Contract talks with Pats have gotten worse


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Is Welker's $9.5M guaranteed? If not, what would he receive in case of injury in camp?
 
Yes, I want the pats to sign Welker to an extension. A 3-year extension would work best, since I suspect that the patriots do not see Welker being worth anywhere near top money for more than 2012 and 2013. I could also see the patriots simply allowing Welker to play this year for $9.5M (really big money for him). Welker would be allowed to go to free agency in 2013 with the possibility of coming back to the pats. After all, most of us think that Welker is worth a lot less to another team than to the patriots.
 
Is Welker's $9.5M guaranteed? If not, what would he receive in case of injury in camp?
The minute he put his signature on the tender offer ALL of that $9.5MM was guaranteed. If he got hit by a bus tomorrow, the Pats would have to pay that money to his estate.
 
Mo, sounds like you are studying up for the agents' test. INSULTING. You've GOT to be kidding. The only player I can think of who got anything CLOSE to that offer who is around Welker's age and size is Steve Smith (as was pointed out) But he plays a different position, is faster, and a PROVEN outside threat, playing in a completely different offense.....and his real deal only averages $7MM/yr So how is THAT an insult.

Name me a slot receiver Welker's age and size who has ever produced at an elite level when they were 32-35. Name me one whose production didn't fall off the table when the "hit the wall". And how is it insulting when you offer a player roughly a 33% raise, and guarantee it 2 years

Mo, the Pats seem perfectly willing to pay Welker a lot more than $6MM for THIS season because they think he probably has a at least on more great year in him. Paying him more than $6-7MM past that point you are playing with fire, and are likely to end up overpaying.

You are clearly in the camp that believe Welker should be paid for his PAST production. And if I believed in this philosophy, I'd be hammering the Pats too. But I believe in creating contracts that pay for expected FUTURE production.

So why don't we compromise. Why not create a contract that Guarantees Welker $16-18MM, and averages $6-7MM/yr in base salaries, but then has incentives that would expand that income into the 8-10MM range IF he defies the odds and continues to put up similar numbers to what he's done the past 5 years.

This way the agent is happy because he can say he's got Welker a deal that averages 9MM/yr, and the Pats are happy because they know that if his production slips, they're only on the hook for 6MM/yr, or the $16MM guarantee.

Smith was around his production (top 5 in yards) last season although he's been oft injured and not produced nearly as well as Welker over the last 3 seasons. He's also 33 years old already and his deals new money covers 3 more seasons - 34-36. Welker won't be his age for 3 more seasons.

Name me a slot receiver who has ever produced at as elite a level consistently for 5 seasons between 26-30... Umm...you can't. That is why he is being touted as the best slot receiver in the history of the league. He's reset the bar at a time when 3 WR sets have become the norm. He's not looking for the same money as a prototypical elite outside WR under 30. Those guys are commanding upwards of $15-16.5M per... You don't even want to give him half of that and the team presently isn't offering him anything even approaching that and apparently for a third as long to boot.

If Welker's production slips they are only on the hook for his guaranteed money in any deal. This is the part of the equation you seem unable or unwilling to grasp. They could sign him to a 10 year $100M deal and if as in Bledsoe's case they decide to part company with him within a year take only a $6M cap hit...because that deal didn't guarantee anything beyond the player's signing bonus...

Offering Welker a 4 year $32M+ deal with $16-18M guaranteed costs them no more up front or if his production drops off than offering him a 2 year $16M fully guaranteed deal. Which they did offer him previously but are inexplicably no longer offering him. Because it in fact also offers them the opportunity to hold a gun to his head and tell him he has to take a paycut to see even part of the last 2 years in salary... It's just cap friendlier because if offers the team more structural flexibility.

Had they not tagged him there is no way he doesn't land at least that deal this past offseason given some of the other deals landed by lesser talents. Or at least have the decency to be honest and up front as opposed to spinning the fairytale scenario that they want to sign Wes to a long term deal and have him play out his career as a Patriot. That's the insulting part...the BS.
 
Pat Kirwin said it best: Don't insult Welker. Let him taste the market for a little bit. If someone else offers him $95, you offer him $90.

Too late for that. They tagged him because they probably were afraid he'd get the $95 offer. And then how would they justify the $65-70 offer...
 
It's weird how the Pats seem to be needlessly ball busting and cause hard feelings during contract time yet almost always sign the players. A tale of two worlds.
 
Welker saying he wasn't going to worry about his contract isn't an indication that his agents stopped attempting to negotiate one. What we heard on that down the stretch was when they couldn't get the 2 year $16M deal done with him they moved on and got a deal done early with Jerod Belichick... And I don't call him that to be unkind, his teamates call him that. Perhaps jokingly, perhaps only half jokingly...

Thing is the $16M they offered him was likely really a 3 year $20M deal with his remaining year on his 2007 deal rolled in. So less than $7M per. Now they are offering him less than they were offering him last season. Considering the season he had, that is bizarre indeed. I would definitely give some reason to believe he is being penalized for the way the last game of the season ended. And that would be wrong on so many levels...

Felger has long contended that they have to win at everything, even the negotiations. I think there is something to that. We're almost all in favor of this organization not going out and paying stupid money to players just to attract or retain them. Unfortunately they tend to take (almost) every negotiation to the mat. Mayo being the lone recent exception. And the odd thing there was he didn't appear to have to take the early discount everyone else who played ball and signed early did. His new money AAV on the extension is $9.7M, top 3 LB money. I know he was DROY, but after that he battled some injuries and struggled some and didn't turn in another pro bowl performance in the interim. I know he sleeps on a cot in Bill's office in the offseason, but what you do on the field matters too and it's not like Welker didn't attend every off season workout or didn't bust his ass to make it back before the bell rang on the next season after he tore his ACL playing in a last regular season game even Bill debated playing him in... And then last season he trumped that by playing his best season ever, at 30, 18 months removed from an ACL.

Mediots keep mistakenly reporting his age as 32. I think that's because the fact that he just turned 31 a couple of weeks ago makes it all even more mindboggling. They handed Chad $6M and extended him for $6M more at age 33 coming off the worst year of his career. Then again, like Mayo... I remember thinking and even saying back in 2005 that people this seemingly bright couldn't also possibly be so dense on another level that they would alienate a guy who had done so much for them while consistently bending over backwards to be a team first player. Yet they were, until Brady's situation went public via Tom E Curran delivering a basically dictated piece courtesy of the Brady camp detailing what the holdup on the extension was... They did the same thing to Wilfork and Mankins, each of whom spoke up - and the one who was most extreme ended up eventually getting the larger deal and one that paid him almost $2M more than they were planning to and made him the highest paid guard in the league.

So don't be so sure they don't hear what gets said about them. I fully expect Jonathan, who has rabitt ears, to take to the airwaves shortly to spin the fabulosity of whatever it is they offered Welker - probably like that deal Adam walked away from to be the highest salaried player at his position - only per the fine print absent any guarantees...
If you're truly looking at the contracts in that way then yes it doesn't make sense, but that's more because looking only at the new years of one and the total years of the other doesn't make sense. Mayo's contract: signed him through his prime years, allowed the Pats to finagle cap hits, and payed him fair value. There's really nothing about it that makes it an outlier.

IMO the problem with the WW situation is that there isn't a lot of room between the franchise money/years and fair money/years.
 

Does anyone think Welker is in effect, paying the cost of the Ocho debacle? The Pats flushed about 6 million dollars down the crapper on Ocho. Are they trying to get it back on the Welker deal?
 
The minute he put his signature on the tender offer ALL of that $9.5MM was guaranteed. If he got hit by a bus tomorrow, the Pats would have to pay that money to his estate.

Same as Mankins when he signed his long term deal last August. Only if he'd been hit by a bus the Pats would have had to pay $30M to his estate... Or god forbid he never plays another snap as a result of his year 1 ACL injury...on a $51M deal that averages $8.7M per for 6 years.
 
Mo, sounds like you are studying up for the agents' test. INSULTING. You've GOT to be kidding. The only player I can think of who got anything CLOSE to that offer who is around Welker's age and size is Steve Smith (as was pointed out) But he plays a different position, is faster, and a PROVEN outside threat, playing in a completely different offense.....and his real deal only averages $7MM/yr So how is THAT an insult.

Name me a slot receiver Welker's age and size who has ever produced at an elite level when they were 32-35. Name me one whose production didn't fall off the table when the "hit the wall". And how is it insulting when you offer a player roughly a 33% raise, and guarantee it 2 years

Mo, the Pats seem perfectly willing to pay Welker a lot more than $6MM for THIS season because they think he probably has a at least on more great year in him. Paying him more than $6-7MM past that point you are playing with fire, and are likely to end up overpaying.

You are clearly in the camp that believe Welker should be paid for his PAST production. And if I believed in this philosophy, I'd be hammering the Pats too. But I believe in creating contracts that pay for expected FUTURE production.

So why don't we compromise. Why not create a contract that Guarantees Welker $16-18MM, and averages $6-7MM/yr in base salaries, but then has incentives that would expand that income into the 8-10MM range IF he defies the odds and continues to put up similar numbers to what he's done the past 5 years.

This way the agent is happy because he can say he's got Welker a deal that averages 9MM/yr, and the Pats are happy because they know that if his production slips, they're only on the hook for 6MM/yr, or the $16MM guarantee.

It's impressive the way that you've ignored everything people have pointed out about the situation and just keep repeating the same nonsense. I particularly like how you keep making the claim that people want Welker paid for past performance when people are saying precisely the opposite, except to note that past performance is always part of salary.
 
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maybe we can now put to rest the "Patriots don't negotiate through the media" meme, seeing as how they've done it as much as anyone recently.
 
maybe we can now put to rest the "Patriots don't negotiate through the media" meme, seeing as how they've done it as much as anyone recently.

How do you figure? I've only seen info coming from Welker's camp(?)
 
Does anyone think Welker is in effect, paying the cost of the Ocho debacle? The Pats flushed about 6 million dollars down the crapper on Ocho. Are they trying to get it back on the Welker deal?

Belichick has an economics degree. He knows a sunk cost when he sees one.
 
If Gronkowski and Hernandez continue their progression they will command huge dollars when they become free agents, the money Welker receives will have to be lessened significantly in order to keep him.

im sure the Patriots tell all of their players to keep quiet about their contract negotiations, the fact that they are paying him 9.5 million in 2012 means they owe him nothing, if he wants a long term deal, it will be on their terms, especially if they project Hernandez being more valuable to the team when he becomes a free agent.
 
The catch would have been all the more important for the very fact that there is no way anyone can reasonably say that Welker "should have made" the catch. It would have been an over-the-top, almost miraculous catch made by a great player in his prime; the kind of catch that immortalizes the legacy of a great player and is the top of his "highlight reel" for decades to come.

PFS74---I was under the initial impression that what you are saying was true, and that stayed true all the way up until....I forced myself to watch it again.

I think when you re-watch the replay you will see that it really should've been a catch. Just take a quick second to rewatch it on youtube.

If you still feel as though it would have been a "highlight reel for decades to come catch" (barring obvious sentimental reasons for winning the SB) then I guess we will just have to respectfully disagree on this one.
 
...Sentence two. The catch would have been all the more important for the very fact that there is no way anyone can reasonably say that Welker "should have made" the catch. It would have been an over-the-top, almost miraculous catch made by a great player in his prime; the kind of catch that immortalizes the legacy of a great player and is the top of his "highlight reel" for decades to come.

Welker should have made that catch, no question about it.
 
Those are two independent and quite different sentences.

Sentence one. I think you're naive if you think that a game-saving catch by a star player in his prime to seal the fourth Lombardi of the Belichick/Brady era wouldn't have had an impact on the negotiations, from a fan, media and substance perspective. It would have been far more than "one football play."

Sentence two. The catch would have been all the more important for the very fact that there is no way anyone can reasonably say that Welker "should have made" the catch. It would have been an over-the-top, almost miraculous catch made by a great player in his prime; the kind of catch that immortalizes the legacy of a great player and is the top of his "highlight reel" for decades to come.

If brady throws 3 picks in the SB and we lose is Brady on the block? Is this Brady's last contract due to one bad performance? Will it affect negotiations at the end of his deal eventually? The answer is unequivocally, no.

It's a tough play, but it's still one play.
 
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