10 most important x-factors who will impact the 2012 season

VJCPatriot said:

Peyton Manning. John Elway. Lots of QBs over age 30 have won superbowls. That's just in recent memory.

X-factor. You forgot Dont'a Hightower.

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errr....how many 35 year olds or older (the last time I checked brady has not been 30 for quite some time now) have won the SB? because that's what the pats have now.

people can sit here and say 'so what', but the stats are loaded with QB at the age of 36,37,38 who throw for 4000 yards, throw for 30 TD, have ratings of over 100.0, but as far as I can tell, only 1 (elway) has ever won it all, and even then, he was not the most important offensive player on the team (even steve beuerline went 4-0 starting for the broncos that year)

Ivan said:

Another world class douchebag comment. Other than the year he suffered a major knee injury Brady has never missed a game in his career, and having some turd fan like you question his toughness is as ridiculous as it gets. It just shows what a douche you are and that your only purpose for posting is to say really really stupid sh.t like this to piss people off. Enjoy your jets douchebag.



Still waiting for you to name all those QB's who were as good as Brady?

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young, elway, kelly, marino, montana, manning, manning, brees, rodgers, warner, favre.....there are more

IllegalContact said:

young, elway, kelly, marino, montana, manning, manning, brees, rodgers, warner, favre.....there are more

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You forgot Phillip Rivers, Vince Young, Michael Bishop, Matt Schaub, Jamarcus Russell.....there are more.

Seriously what is going through your head?

The only ones on that list whom you could make a credible argument for would be Elway, P. Manning, and Montana.

IllegalContact said:

favre

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Your opinion on QBs no longer matters to me.

A few things:

- Saying that few QBs Brady's age have won Super Bowls is irrelevant. Few QBs any age have gone to the Super Bowl. But trends from other QBs from other eras do not equate to today's era. Players play longer today at a higher level than they did 20-30 years ago.

John Elway didn't win a Super Bowl until he was 37. Plenty of players in recent years lost Super Bowls well into their late 30s like Kurt Warner and Rich Gannon. I can't believe anyone can argue having a QB in his mid to late 30s was the difference between winning and losing a Super Bowl.

We have had this same argument over and over again with illegalcontact.

- I don't know how Lloyd's acrobatic catch abilities WON'T be used. In 2010, how many times did we see Taylor Price or Brandon Tate run down the field to watch the ball fly over their heads? The reason why the Pats haven't used a down the field WR who can make acrobatic catches other than Randy Moss is because they have never had such a WR. You cannot turn guys like Branch. Welker, or even Ochocinco into a guy like that.

IllegalContact said:

errr....how many 35 year olds or older (the last time I checked brady has not been 30 for quite some time now) have won the SB? because that's what the pats have now.

people can sit here and say 'so what', but the stats are loaded with QB at the age of 36,37,38 who throw for 4000 yards, throw for 30 TD, have ratings of over 100.0, but as far as I can tell, only 1 (elway) has ever won it all, and even then, he was not the most important offensive player on the team (even steve beuerline went 4-0 starting for the broncos that year)

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So Rich Gannon and Kurt Warner who were in Super Bowls well over 35 lost because they were over 35? Sorry, but it doesn't work that way.

It is such a silly argument you are making. The game is different. Sports medicine is different.

In 1995, an ACL tear was a death sentence for an NFL player. Odds were that they would never play again. Today, players are returning months later and a year later they are as good as they were before the injury. If Brady was laid out like he was in 2008 back in 1995, his career would have likely been over at age 31.

In 2000, defenders could legally hit the QB in ways that would easily draw 15 yard penalties and five figure fines. QBs get hit much less today and when they get hit, they rarely get hit nearly as hard. This is going to extend the career of all QBs not just Brady.

TyronePoole said:

how many QBs his age have been to five SBs?

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How many quarterbacks have been to 5 superbowls, REGARDLESS of age?

Rob0729 said:

So Rich Gannon and Kurt Warner who were in Super Bowls well over 35 lost because they were over 35? Sorry, but it doesn't work that way.

It is such a silly argument you are making. The game is different. Sports medicine is different.

In 1995, an ACL tear was a death sentence for an NFL player. Odds were that they would never play again. Today, players are returning months later and a year later they are as good as they were before the injury. If Brady was laid out like he was in 2008 back in 1995, his career would have likely been over at age 31.

In 2000, defenders could legally hit the QB in ways that would easily draw 15 yard penalties and five figure fines. QBs get hit much less today and when they get hit, they rarely get hit nearly as hard. This is going to extend the career of all QBs not just Brady.

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This times 1000. We're entering an unprecedented era of QB-ing, where playing until 40 could be the norm for marquee guys. Especially those like Brady, whose game is more predicated upon making good decisions instead of arm strength, scrambling, or any other perishable skill.

JackBauer said:

Not sure where you're getting this from.

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Lloyd is exactly what Brady needs.

TBs long ball is not his strong suit and Lloyd will hopefully adjust with the ball in the air and catch those passes.

X factor 11. - Josh McDaniels.

The play calling. Some say the play calling really sucked in SB42. Do McDaniels and Brady get along? I seem to recall they do.

IllegalContact said:

young, elway, kelly, marino, montana, manning, manning, brees, rodgers, warner, favre.....there are more

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Actually there are less. Montana, that's it, and when Brady wins one more SB it will be the end of that debate as well.


Despite listing some great QB's in this post your comment was that "plenty of guys had careers as good as Brady's" which clearly makes him sound like JAG, and you went on to call him soft after that. You are either a troll or you know absolutely nothing at all about football, because neither of your comments had any basis in reality, and they were completely out of place in a thread about the coming season as Brady has been getting better the past few years, not worse.

Triumph said:

X factor 11. - Josh McDaniels.

The play calling. Some say the play calling really sucked in SB42. Do McDaniels and Brady get along? I seem to recall they do.

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Great point. McDaniels was the architect for the 2007 highest scoring offense of all time. I believe that overall the Pats have more weapons in the arsenal for 2012. I can't wait to see what McDaniels does with that!

you're the one that called him a JAG....brady is a great QB, period. but he is not unique, period.

as for brady winning 3 SB's, he by no means did it alone.

in all 3 SB years, it was the defense that gave the opportunity to even be in the SB....over the last 9 games of the season and playoffs, including the superbowl, the pats defense does not give up more than 17 points in any game.

they never had to depend on him then the way they do now, and at 35, that's not necessarily a good thing. the fact remains that age is a factor whether you want it to be or not. especially when you're talking about a guy who is projecting to drop back 650 or so times in a season.

Ivan said:

Actually there are less. Montana, that's it, and when Brady wins one more SB it will be the end of that debate as well.


Despite listing some great QB's in this post your comment was that "plenty of guys had careers as good as Brady's" which clearly makes him sound like JAG, and you went on to call him soft after that. You are either a troll or you know absolutely nothing at all about football, because neither of your comments had any basis in reality, and they were completely out of place in a thread about the coming season as Brady has been getting better the past few years, not worse.

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IllegalContact said:

errr....how many 35 year olds or older (the last time I checked brady has not been 30 for quite some time now) have won the SB? because that's what the pats have now.

people can sit here and say 'so what', but the stats are loaded with QB at the age of 36,37,38 who throw for 4000 yards, throw for 30 TD, have ratings of over 100.0, but as far as I can tell, only 1 (elway) has ever won it all, and even then, he was not the most important offensive player on the team (even steve beuerline went 4-0 starting for the broncos that year)

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QB seasons age 35+ at end of season, 4000 yards: 11
QB seasons age 35+ at end of season, 30 TDs: 8
QB seasons age 35+ at end of season, 100 passer rating (min. 100 attempts): 10
QB seasons age 35+ at end of season, all three: 2 (for now )

By comparison,
QB seasons age <35 at end of season, 4000 yards: 88
QB seasons age <35 at end of season, 30 TDs: 67
QB seasons age <35 at end of season, 100 passer rating (min. 100 attempts): 59
QB seasons age <35 at end of season, all three: 15

The short version is that as a rule, only good-to-great QBs get to age 35. If you find the proportion of QB seasons by a starting QB over the age of 35 that ended up in a Super Bowl, I bet you it's higher than the proportion of QB seasons by a starting QB under the age of 35 that result in a Super Bowl.

So 10 most important x-factors eh? What do you all think?

ctpatsfan77 said:

QB seasons age 35+ at end of season, 4000 yards: 11
QB seasons age 35+ at end of season, 30 TDs: 8
QB seasons age 35+ at end of season, 100 passer rating (min. 100 attempts): 10
QB seasons age 35+ at end of season, all three: 2 (for now )

By comparison,
QB seasons age <35 at end of season, 4000 yards: 88
QB seasons age <35 at end of season, 30 TDs: 67
QB seasons age <35 at end of season, 100 passer rating (min. 100 attempts): 59
QB seasons age <35 at end of season, all three: 15

The short version is that as a rule, only good-to-great QBs get to age 35. If you find the proportion of QB seasons by a starting QB over the age of 35 that ended up in a Super Bowl, I bet you it's higher than the proportion of QB seasons by a starting QB under the age of 35 that result in a Super Bowl.

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Great research.

1. Tom Brady - we know that Belichick knows something of statistics, or at least Big Ern up in the booth does. Seeing as how it's now statistically impossible for Brady to win a Superbowl will we trade him or bench him?

Ice_Ice_Brady said:

This is what's concerned me about Lloyd, and why I didn't really want us to sign him. How many times have you seen a Pats receiver on the highlight reel on Sportscenter making a spectacular catch from Brady? Very, very rarely, because those catches usually imply that the receiver is not really open and needs to make an incredible adjustment to get to the ball.

Brady almost never throws jump balls based on thinking he has a matchup advantage- the only exception with Randy Moss in '07. He throws to receivers who have separated from defenders and are open by putting the ball where only his player can get it. This is a big difference from guys like Flacco and to some degree Eli Manning who use their receivers' athleticism to win jump balls when the coverage is tight.

So where does Lloyd fit in? I'll admit I did not see him much last year, but in Denver it was Lloyd who broke Orton away from his safe, high-percentage passing game into more of an acrobatic aerial show that resulted in lots of highlight catches but also lots of turnovers.

This is why the Patriots generally go with smaller, quicker receivers like Branch, Welker, etc., and usually do not go with bigger receivers. They want guys that don't put them in the position of throwing the ball up for grabs.

This is why Ochocinco did not fit in, and to some degree, Galloway.

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We didn't sign Lloyd because he can win jump balls. We signed him because he can, and will, threaten every level of the defense. He can go deep, catch passes over the middle, and threaten the intermediate level of the secondary. Gaffney can do the same but he'll be much more of our "deep threat" in this offense than Lloyd will, ala Lance Moore with the Saints.

TyronePoole said:

1. Tom Brady - we know that Belichick knows something of statistics, or at least Big Ern up in the booth does. Seeing as how it's now statistically impossible for Brady to win a Superbowl will we trade him or bench him?

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We should trade him for Matt Cassel.

I can think of some unkowns/X-factors that don't all have to do with players, and many things on my list may have been mentioned already (I haven't read the entire thread, but thought the O.P.'s idea was a solid one and went from there. It's 15 items long, so my apologies if I bore the reader :

1.) Number of WRs kept:

This will impact offensive diversity in the play calling, which leads to......

2.) McDaniels' playcalling:

Does he continue the focus on the two tight ends and WWW, or does he get Brady to make some significant changes, either just by spreading out the ball more or by going more WR-centric?

3.) Vollmer's back:

Can the man stay healthy

4.) Waters' age:

Does the man hit the wall this season (assuming he plays)?

5.) Rookie development:

This team needs significant production from Hightower and at least one of the DBs this season.

6.) Health/Improvement in the defensive secondary:

Can Dowling and Chung stay healthy? Can Dowling play? Will McCourty suck again this season, or will he and the team get his play straightened out?

7.) Defensive "coordinator":

Does BB take less of a hands on approach, and how does that impact that defense?

8.) Mesko:

Can he keep improving on what was already a quality season in terms of return numbers and touchbacks?

9.) Gostkowski:

Another year away from his injury, will his leg strength and confidence fully return?

10.) Concussions: Can this team avoid the concussion problems that seemed to have an impact on the offense last season (i.e. Solder/Woodhead)?

11.) Schedule: Can the team take advantage of the easy schedule by holding up against the few 'trouble' spots on it? At B-more following a west coast trip, at Jets after another west coast trip, Texans & 49ers after back-to-back divisional road games against the Jets and Dolphins....

12.) Getting the band back together:

How much does getting Gaffney and McDaniels (and having a new WR who already knows a lot of the system, in Lloyd) give the Patriots an edge early in the year?

13.) Carter's injury:

Assuming he returns, how long does it take him to return to 100%?

14.) Potential change in defensive base formation:

A change from the 4-3 to the 3-4 seems to be a real possibility, especially given who was taken in round 1. The linebackers have a potential to be a legitimate strength against the run, and to at least hold their own overall, for the first time since 2007. Of course, the flip side is that a couple of DEs are going to really have to step up in order to help the D-line stay strong at the point of attack.

15.) RB involvment:

Both a personnel issue and a playcalling issue variant, the questions here are about who'll be toting the rock, how often that toting will happen, and whether or not the team will return to throwing the ball to the receivers.