10 most important x-factors who will impact the 2012 season

The biggest X factor IMO is not player specific, but how will the DB's play and communicate as a group.. their youth and lack of off season training impeded their progress, with some new faces, healthy faces and more youth can they as a group progress and be a factor.

Very little "playmaking" amongst that group last year, and they need to improve drastically..

Hopefully they can be healthier, and we are not having to use offensive players and guys off of the street to play those positions..

I suspect that Matt Patricia will help them improve, but they need to make a lot of progress over what happened last year..

Ivan said:

It's relevant because there have been few if any QB's have ever been as good as Brady over the course of their careers and none has ever had a better year than he did last season, and where he is at as a QB is much more important than his age.

Tell you what, Sanchez and Tebow are younger, you can go with them, they have a much better chance than Brady does, and you just outlined why, they are younger.


It never ceases to amaze me that people can try so hard to really stretch and find something to be negative about. When Brady starts to decline people can start invoking his age and the obvious slippage, until then it is just wishful thinking for the nation of negativity.

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Thanks for the voice of reason here.

If Brady does win a Super Bowl, then everyone will talk about how Elway and Brady won championships, so now it's expected that QBs will have their "swan song" seasons. Just like if Warner's Cardinals had held off the Steelers three years ago, this baseless argument wouldn't even exist.

Late career championship winners. Age on the right. This goes back until about 1950, and only the NFL. Honestly, I just didn't feel like going any deeper.

Elway 37, 38
Brad Johnson 34
Steve Young 33
Phil Simms 36 (started 13 games, anyway), 32
Joe Montana 33
Doug Williams 32
Jim Plunkett 36, 33
Joe Theismann 33
Roger Staubach 35
Johnny Unitas 37
Len Dawson 34
Bart Starr 33
Billy Wade 33
Norm Van Brocklin 34
Otto Graham 34, 33

And tons of those dudes played in an era far less health friendly than today's NFL.

JackBauer said:

I think this is based more on the fact that we haven't had wide receivers capable of exploiting said matchup advantage more than Brady's stylistic preferences.

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That is possible, too.

spin all you like, but the FACT is that only one QB has won anything at that age.

and there have been plenty of QB's who have been as good as brady over the course of their careers. still.....that means NOTHING in terms of what may happen next year. it is POSSIBLE that he could win it, but history is not in his favor. you can choose now to ignore history, but the data really spells out a telling story. there are plenty of mid 30's QB's who have put up sizeable numbers and have had good seasons. but only 1 has won it all, and he was no longer the most important guy on the offense (terrell davis was). you can wish to deny the relevance, but the facts speak for themselves.

Ivan said:

It's relevant because there have been few if any QB's have ever been as good as Brady over the course of their careers and none has ever had a better year than he did last season, and where he is at as a QB is much more important than his age.

Tell you what, Sanchez and Tebow are younger, you can go with them, they have a much better chance than Brady does, and you just outlined why, they are younger.


It never ceases to amaze me that people can try so hard to really stretch and find something to be negative about. When Brady starts to decline people can start invoking his age and the obvious slippage, until then it is just wishful thinking for the nation of negativity.

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you can certainly say it doesn't happen like it used to

Love the Phil Simm mentioning.......too bad he couldn't finish the season......most likely because he was too old.......thank god for jeff hostetler.

I wish the pats could count on brady the way most of those teams counted on their QB's

HomerSchooled said:

Late career championship winners. Age on the right. This goes back until about 1950, and only the NFL. Honestly, I just didn't feel like going any deeper.

Elway 37, 38
Brad Johnson 34
Steve Young 33
Phil Simms 36 (started 13 games, anyway), 32
Joe Montana 33
Doug Williams 32
Jim Plunkett 36, 33
Joe Theismann 33
Roger Staubach 35
Johnny Unitas 37
Len Dawson 34
Bart Starr 33
Billy Wade 33
Norm Van Brocklin 34
Otto Graham 34, 33

And tons of those dudes played in an era far less health friendly than today's NFL.

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Re: 10 most important x-factors whIIo will impact the 2012 season

IllegalContact said:

tom brady - how many QB's his age have won the SB?

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IllegalContact said:

But the fact that only 1 QB has achieved the goal at Tom Brady's age

I'm not going to stop you from trying to will it through mental energy, but it is what it is

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Brady's 34 right now

Bart Starr was 34 when he won SB2

Len Dawson was 34 when he won SB4

Johnny Unitas was 36 when he won SB5

Roger Staubach was 35 when he won SB8

Jim Plunkett was 36 when he won SB18

John Elway was 37 and 38 when he won SB32 AND SB33

Starr, Plunkett, Theismann, Montana and Young were 33 when winning SBs 1, 15, 17, 24 and 29.

Re: 10 most important x-factors whIIo will impact the 2012 season

that's fine........feel good about something that doesn't happen anymore

Armchair Quarterback said:

Brady's 34 right now

Bart Starr was 34 when he won SB2

Len Dawson was 34 when he won SB4

Johnny Unitas was 36 when he won SB5

Roger Staubach was 35 when he won SB8

Jim Plunkett was 36 when he won SB18

John Elway was 37 and 38 when he won SB32 AND SB33

Starr, Plunkett, Theismann, Montana and Young were 33 when winning SBs 1, 15, 17, 24 and 29.

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If the issue is individual players whose if-healthy performance has the most significant range of possible effects on the team, some of my thoughts are:

McCourty -- Absolutely. Huge variation between his seasons.

Dowling -- Absolutely. Clearly has excellent, immediate upside (because he made the starting line-up so raw). Hasn't actually proved a thing.

Solder -- Obviously.

Chung -- Sure. His performance to date can be read multiple ways. Also, he's like many safeties in that he can be anything from an asset to a liability in coverage.

Safeties other than Chung -- Clearly as a group. As individuals -- yeah, Wilson COULD be a good immediate starter, and wouldn't it be awesome if he were?

Pass rush -- Clearly as a group. As individuals -- Jones, for reasons stated above. M. Carter -- well, I guess so, but more realistic for me is nice numbers in what is nonetheless a JAG performance.

Hightower -- Rookies LBs can be stars. They can also be useless. Huge range of possibilities.

Moore -- Quite a range of possibilities for him too. And if he's good, he'll play and help a lot.

RBs -- Clearly as a group. Hard to name just one because there are so many. I guess Ridley.

Re: 10 most important x-factors whIIo will impact the 2012 season

IllegalContact said:

that's fine........feel good about something that doesn't happen anymore

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So let me get this clear - you don't think Brady can win a Super Bowl because of his age....totally ignoring his ability? When you can quite clearly see from watching him play he's getting better as he gets older.

Re: 10 most important x-factors whIIo will impact the 2012 season

Big-T said:

So let me get this clear - you don't think Brady can win a Super Bowl because of his age....totally ignoring his ability? When you can quite clearly see from watching him play he's getting better as he gets older.

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If Brady has a legit defense to play with then he can win multiple championships moving forward.

Brady's ability isn't the reason this team will or won't win a Superbowl. Its completely on the defense. The guys we added this year are going to help solidify the young group we already have in place. We are very close to getting back that swagger we used to have, and if guys can stay healthy, then I think we're going to be Superbowl or bust for the next 5 years or so.

[/B]1. Tavon Wilson/Steve Gregory
Whichever one starts next to Chung at safety, an improvement at safety means improved play everywhere else in the secondary, a number of McCourty's "bad plays" last year were down to the safety being in the wrong position.[/B]

I have been saying this all season, and off-season.

Sometimes fans don't understand the Defense. McCourty had many INTs the previous year, so he is a proven good INTerceptor. So the Pats coaches set up some INT trap type plays.

The idea is to have the CB look "beaten" so the QB will throw the ball to the WR. But the S comes over and plays "deep and long technique" CB plays "short and inside technique" to catch the underthrown passes, or step in front of a pass.

It does require to S to recognize, and get over there to make the long ball INTs, or break up the on-the-money passes. if the S doesn't do his job, it is an easy completion for the Offense, and the trailing CB, ie McCourty gets blamed for being "beaten". Poor S play was notorious last year.

IllegalContact said:

and in what way is this relevant to the upcoming season?

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if you are implying a trend (QBs over 35 not winning a SB), then any attribute that separates him from the sample is extremely relevant n determining how strong the trend is on the individual. You wouldn't compare him to QBs who only started one season in their NFL career and say that would you? You chose a flawed subset.

It would be like saying how many college Quarterbacks go on to the NFL prowbowl and then using that number to say that Andrew Luck's chances are small, ignoring the fact that clearly he's not got a lot in common with the vast majority of QBs in college already. Do you think Andrew Luck only has a 1/1000 chance of making the NFL probowl? His past accomplishments are irrelevant right?

New question:

what percentage of multiple SB-winning QBs have won a SB over the age of 35? Certainly changes his chances doesn't it? How about - what percentage of multiple-SB-winning QBs that have played past the age of 35 have won a Superbowl?

Ice_Ice_Brady said:

10. Rob Gronkowski. Maybe it's surprising to see him on this list, but it's more a compliment to just how great he was last year. It will be difficult to continue at such a tremendous level of play, and I'm hoping the injury, off-field distractions and celebrity life will not bring him down to the level of mere mortals. He can't go much further up, but he could go pretty far down if he doesn't continue focusing on the game.

*Note: Although the defensive linemen are very important, I did not see much potential variation from guys like Love and Deadrick. I think we know who they are and what to expect.

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I beg to differ! There's plenty of space in that ceiling.

TyronePoole said:

if you are implying a trend (QBs over 35 not winning a SB), then any attribute that separates him from the sample is extremely relevant n determining how strong the trend is on the individual. You wouldn't compare him to QBs who only started one season in their NFL career and say that would you? You chose a flawed subset.

It would be like saying how many college Quarterbacks go on to the NFL prowbowl and then using that number to say that Andrew Luck's chances are small, ignoring the fact that clearly he's not got a lot in common with the vast majority of QBs in college already. Do you think Andrew Luck only has a 1/1000 chance of making the NFL probowl? His past accomplishments are irrelevant right?

New question:

How many multiple SB-winning QBs have won a SB over the age of 35? Certainly changes his chances doesn't it? How about - how many multiple-SB-winning QBs that have played past the age of 35 have won a Superbowl?

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I wouldn't bother, this guy is either trying to get everyone riled up, or he is just very dumb. Numerous examples have already been pointed out including QBs that have won the SB past age 35 and QBs that were very close recently and easily could have won the SB (Favre, Warner, Gannon.)

I think the major point here is that most QBs are not even in the league past age 35, which is why you are isolating about 5% of active quarterbacks each year and stacking the odds heavily against them. In recent memory, these are the only QBs I remember playing at that age:

Steve McNair- Led the Ravens to a top seed in the playoffs in 06

Brett Favre- As already stated, was twice within a field goal of going to the SB with Packers and Vikings

Rich Gannon- Made it to the SB in '02

Kurt Warner- Had the lead in SB 43 and should have won in 08

John Elway- Won two SBs

Matt Hasselbeck- Played well last year; the problem was elsewhere on the team

Vinny Testavarde- Put together a great season in 98 with the Jets

In fact, the only QBs I can remember that were given a chance to start after age 35 and were terrible were QBs that were already terrible like Kerry Collins last year or John Kitna who couldn't have won during his prime. I'm sure I'm missing a few, but again, if a QB can still play that late into his career, it actually seems like an advantage based on that list.

Aikman, Montana, and Bradshaw did not play past 35.

Marino played until he was 37. Same with Young. Kelly was 36. So basically that accounts for about 5 total seasons where HoF QBs did not win a SB. Wow, what a curse.

You definitely could argue that QBs get progressively better as they get older until injuries eventually end their careers. I'm personally not a believer in running ability and arm strength as big indicators of a successful QB, as so much of it is mental.

IL, its bad enough you highjacked a good topic with such a flawed opinion.....that you keep making even though your basic theory has been incontrovertibly trashed.

1. Several QBs in Brady's age group have won superbowls

2. Nothing in Brady's play has show ANY deterioration in the quality of his play

3. In fact its been quite the opposite. His last 2 seasons have been his BEST when you consider his overall production and efficiency.

4. And while he hasn't put up the kind of numbers we've come to expect from a "quality" Brady performance, the FACT is that in the last 2 superbowls, Brady has led his team to the lead with UNDER 2 minutes remaining, needing only one DEFENSIVE stop, to win those games.

5. The fact is that the Pats don't get within a sniff of the last superbowl WITHOUT the dominant play of Tom Brady. And you can be assured that when they finally DO take that last step to a championship, the Defense will be an equal partner in the success.

6. Over the last 3 seasons the Pats have completely rebuilt their defense,and with THIS draft the final pieces of the "core" have been assembled for it to be a consistent top 10 defense. Its simply just a matter of time and experience how fast it reaches its potential.

Unfortunately it isn't likely to be next year. Too many inexperienced parts. But that doesn't mean that we won't see a dramatic improvement. Top 20 in yds and top 10 in scoring are reasonable goals

Ice_Ice_Brady said:

This is what's concerned me about Lloyd, and why I didn't really want us to sign him. How many times have you seen a Pats receiver on the highlight reel on Sportscenter making a spectacular catch from Brady? Very, very rarely, because those catches usually imply that the receiver is not really open and needs to make an incredible adjustment to get to the ball.

Brady almost never throws jump balls based on thinking he has a matchup advantage- the only exception with Randy Moss in '07. He throws to receivers who have separated from defenders and are open by putting the ball where only his player can get it. This is a big difference from guys like Flacco and to some degree Eli Manning who use their receivers' athleticism to win jump balls when the coverage is tight.

So where does Lloyd fit in? I'll admit I did not see him much last year, but in Denver it was Lloyd who broke Orton away from his safe, high-percentage passing game into more of an acrobatic aerial show that resulted in lots of highlight catches but also lots of turnovers.

This is why the Patriots generally go with smaller, quicker receivers like Branch, Welker, etc., and usually do not go with bigger receivers. They want guys that don't put them in the position of throwing the ball up for grabs.

This is why Ochocinco did not fit in, and to some degree, Galloway.

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Re: 10 most important x-factors whIIo will impact the 2012 season

Big-T said:

So let me get this clear - you don't think Brady can win a Super Bowl because of his age....totally ignoring his ability? When you can quite clearly see from watching him play he's getting better as he gets older.

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Just ignore him and his over the top ignorance, man. You've done a good job explaining what should be common sense to him, but he isn't able to wrap his head around it. So just ignore his terrible opinion.

TyronePoole said:

if you are implying a trend (QBs over 35 not winning a SB), then any attribute that separates him from the sample is extremely relevant n determining how strong the trend is on the individual. You wouldn't compare him to QBs who only started one season in their NFL career and say that would you? You chose a flawed subset.

It would be like saying how many college Quarterbacks go on to the NFL prowbowl and then using that number to say that Andrew Luck's chances are small, ignoring the fact that clearly he's not got a lot in common with the vast majority of QBs in college already. Do you think Andrew Luck only has a 1/1000 chance of making the NFL probowl? His past accomplishments are irrelevant right?

New question:

what percentage of multiple SB-winning QBs have won a SB over the age of 35? Certainly changes his chances doesn't it? How about - what percentage of multiple-SB-winning QBs that have played past the age of 35 have won a Superbowl?

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huh? you tell me

sounds like you're already convinced that it's brady's destiny to win another one........hope you're right, but logic says its not so

Re: 10 most important x-factors whIIo will impact the 2012 season

Big-T said:

So let me get this clear - you don't think Brady can win a Super Bowl because of his age....totally ignoring his ability? When you can quite clearly see from watching him play he's getting better as he gets older.

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highly productive QB's over the age of 35 are a dime a dozen over the course of time. thing is that none of them (at least the ones who were the most important offensive player on the team at the time) has won a thing. counting on older QB's (35 and up) in the same manner the pats depend on brady has produce zero superbowls. every year it is more likely that the QB is more beat up at the end of the year.

I mean it did not take a very hard hit to take brady out of his game in the SB.

just calling it like I see it.......finesse does not cut it in the postseason...I thought we learned that from the colts