WR Competition

Fencer · May 5, 2012

Naively, that adds up to expected number of WRs of 6.8, if I did the arithmetic correctly.

This is not crazy, because it's not crazy to keep 5 WRs + Slater + Edelman.

rookBoston said:
I think we'll have six receivers on the roster. Possibly seven, if BB decides the 7th receiver is more useful to the team in the long run than a 3rd TE or 4th OG.

Handicapping the field...

Brandon Lloyd - 100%. Is a lock. Good contract terms, he and McDaniels are mutually enamoured, special physical tools.

Matthew Slater - 100%. Is a lock, because he is the special teams' captain. He is nominally a WR, but sees at least as much time as an emergency S... and probably will in 2012 again, too.

Jabar Gaffney - 80% will make the squad. BB would not have brought him in on top of all the other top receivers on the roster, without a sense of conviction. Gaffney is proven in the Pats scheme and has a few more years to run.

Julian Edelman - 80%. What makes Edelman secure is the fact that he's a three way player for Belichick who loves three way players. Only two ways I see Edelman not making the team: (1) Ebert beats Edelman for the PR, KR job straight up, or (2) some team trades for him. KC or Baltimore, perhaps.

Wes Welker - 80%, and dropping. The heart and soul of the offense. Everyone says that Brady "carries" the team, but it's on Welker's back. Here's why Welker is not a lock: he's got one big contract left in his career. If the Pats can't get him to terms they feel are fair value, with all the depth available to us, (and assuming Wes signs the tender) I think BB would listen to an offer from a team like Indy or Jacksonville for an early 1st round pick. For that matter, if the Bills or Fins offer a 1st and 3rd, or something like that, I think Welker could even get dealt within the Division! Please let it not happen that way. Worst case scenario for us would be for Welker to play this year under a Franchise designation, and then walk next year as a Free Agent. Note: if BB traded Bledsoe, Vrabel and Seymour at the cusp of their careers, Welker certainly isn't immune.

Deon Branch - 70%. Deon projects to be the third or fourth WR option. He has Brady's trust like no one else on the roster. But his effectiveness has certainly dropped and he doesn't play on special teams. Of the remaining WRs, the last spot is his to lose. But if Stallworth, Gonzo or Ocho beat him out in TC, he will be cut and probably latch on to some team to ride out the last few years of his career.

Donte Stallworth - 50%. Has to beat Branch, Gonzo and Ocho to make the roster. Or make such a good showing that BB decides not to carry a 3rd TE or not to carry a FB. He has been productive under McDaniels in the past, which is a point in his favor. At the end of his career.

Chad Ochocinco - 50%. Has to beat Branch, Gonzo and Stallworth for the #4 WR spot. After failing to absorb the playbook last year, will this offseason make the difference. Already reworked the terms of his contract to stay with the team, which will make BB more reluctant to cut him. At the end of his career.

Jeremy Ebert - 40%. To make the roster, he either has to beat Edelman for the KR or PR job, or he has to come close to matching Stallworth, Ochocinco and Gonzalez in training camp. He only needs to come close because as a rookie his upside is higher and his payroll is very attractive. If he flashes anything special in the preseason, BB may stash him as the 7th receiver, solely out of concern that he would not clear waivers. Otherwise, he's likely to end on the PS.

Anthony Gonzalez - 30%. A lot to prove. (1) is he healthy? (2) can he absorb the system faster than Branch, Stallworth or Ochocinco, who all have a head start? (3) can he beat out a lot of veterans based on pure merit? The only thing going for him is that he's younger than the rest. If he can match Branch, Ocho and Stallworth, and beat Ebert, he may get the nod just based on the fact that he has more football ahead of him.

Britt Davis - 0%. No chance. I'm sure BB offered to release him, same as he did with Underwood. But Britt probably sees more upside in being in camp with all these veterans and working to earn the trust of the coaching staff to find a spot on the practice squad.

Ron Sellers · May 5, 2012

LetsGoBuffalo said:
Hey All -

Hoping to spark up some debate/insight into NE's WR situation. Seems the Pats currently have an embarrassment of riches at WR. Meantime my guys are still looking for a solid #2. We all know ya can't keep 'em all, so I'm hoping to elicit some feedback from fans who know the group better than I do.

Two questions (well, 2.5, second one is two pronged):

1. - How many WRs do you guys see the Pats keeping going in to week 1?

2. - Who do you see them cutting?

2a. - Of those cuts, is there anyone that, IYO, could effectively fill a #2 role on a team with less WR depth?

Thx in advance. Looking forward to your guys' opinons.

Also hoping that somehow WW, BL, JG, RG, and AH fail to make the team due to an unforseen hot air ballooning mishap that prevents them from landing safely until mid feb 2013!

What a set of options!

Aside from the responses you have already received in this thread, check out this thread http://www.patsfans.com/new-england-patriots/messageboard/10/915653-pats-picker-2012-now-live.html also to get some ideas on who fans here think will (and won't) make the Pats 2012 roster.

I think to figure out how many WRs the team will keep, look at the rest of the roster and figure out how many roster spots are left. If you figure 53-man roster minus 3 ST players leaves 25 spots for offense and 25 for defense. Granted there will be some ST-only/primarily (e.g., gunners) positions, but that will likely be evenly be split between players whose 'position' is either on offense or defense.

It looks like the Pats will likely go with the following on offense:

(3) QB Hoyer knows the system the best right now and would therefore be the top choice if Brady were to get injured, but he'll be a free agent next year. The Pats aren't letting Mallett go, he's their QB of the future.

(3) TE (rather than 2 they had last year). Someone else pointed out to me that Fells signed a contract with a $1mm signing bonus and $2mm guaranteed; he's not going to be cut.

(5) RB/FB (rather than 4 they had most of last year). It looks like the Pats want to keep a FB on the roster, and I doubt they would go into the season with only 3 'real' RB

(8-9) OL - 8 seems like too few but I suppose it might be a possibility, especially if Mankins begins the season on PUP.

That would leave either 5 or 6 WR. Welker, Lloyd and Gaffney would be near-locks. Edelman and Slater are near locks for their special teams play. That would leave at most only one other WR between Branch, Stallworth, Gonzalez, Ochocinco, Ebert, Davis, and the UDFA (Roark?) they signed.

The first four could effectively fill a #2 WR if need be, but would be better suited as a third option. The other three would be useful as a 4th option/special teams player.

As far as which from that group gets cut and which makes the team, who knows? An unforeseen training camp injury might help clear the picture, but right now it's a complete unknown. Branch offers the most in terms of how productive he is due to having the best chemistry with Brady, whereas a guy like Britt or Ebert would be able to contribute on special teams - something you want from your low depth chart guys, while that is something the veteran guys are not going to be able to help out with.

Of course there's no rule they have to go 25 offense/25 defense, or that Edelman or Slater might be looked upon as a S rather than a WR this year, and maybe they go with 4 RB rather than 5 - in which case there's room for one more from that final group of wide receivers.

rookBoston · May 5, 2012

Fencer said:
Naively, that adds up to expected number of WRs of 6.8, if I did the arithmetic correctly.

This is not crazy, because it's not crazy to keep 5 WRs + Slater + Edelman.

I was shooting for 6.4 WRs... maybe I did the math wrong...

No, you're right 6.8. I actually think that's a not unreasonable basis for a prediction. Should be something between 6 and 7, anyway.

patsfan13 · May 5, 2012

If Mallett passes Hoyer on the depth chart then the Pats will carry 2 QB's w/ Hartline on the PS. Hoyer will be traded in that case.

Ring 6 · May 5, 2012

Nunchucks said:
I think the Patriots keep 5 WRs, with Edelmen as the 6th guy who returns punts and kicks.

Welker, Lloyed and then three other guys.

I think we need our kick and punt returner to be able to do something else. Regardless of which 4 true WRs make the team (some think 5 will) Edelman will have no chance of seeing the field.

Avenger · May 5, 2012

patsfan13 said:
If Mallett passes Hoyer on the depth chart then the Pats will carry 2 QB's w/ Hartline on the PS. Hoyer will be traded in that case.

I'm not big on Hartline, I'd rather sign Patrick Witt as a UDFA for the practice squad, Yale QB, transfer from Nebraska. Patriots were at his private workout.

Spergon Wynn · May 5, 2012

I'm really pushing for Stallworth to make the roster. I think he could still be a solid contributor.

Ring 6 · May 5, 2012

Spergon Wynn said:
I'm really pushing for Stallworth to make the roster. I think he could still be a solid contributor.

I think Stallworth is beyond done.
Since he left here in 2007, he has caught a total of 41 passes and made himself unwanted on 3 teams after spending 1 season with them. He wasn't exactly a stud producer before that either.

PATRIOTSFANINPA · May 5, 2012

Stallnotworthit and Ochosuckcoxso will be cut.....if I had my way

Avenger · May 6, 2012

Davis and Roark are bound for the practice squad, possibly Ebert too. To keep Ebert here we might have to pay him above the practice squad minimum.

MoneyFX · May 6, 2012

1. Lloyd (lock)
2. Welker (lock)
3. Gaffney (lock)
4. Stallworth (needed for lack of speed on WR)
5. Edelman (versatile 3 way player, BB loves these players)
6. Slater (lock, ST)

If they were gonna keep a 7th, it would be Branch for depth and insurance.

Fencer · May 7, 2012

Bedard's view:

The Patriots now have 11 receivers, with the addition of Jabar Gaffney and the subtraction of Tiquan Underwood. They kept six last season, and considering the addition of tight end Daniel Fells and the possibility of a fullback, that might be heavy. The locks are Wes Welker and Brandon Lloyd. Gaffney and Matthew Slater are near-certainties. That leaves (in order) Donté Stallworth, Chad Ochocinco, Deion Branch, Julian Edelman, Anthony Gonzalez, Britt Davis, and seventh-round pick Jeremy Ebert fighting for two spots maximum.

Interesting that he has Stallworth so high.

JMarr · May 7, 2012

Fencer said:
Bedard's view:

Interesting that he has Stallworth so high.

Why? A proven producer in McDaniels' offense who's also the only WR on the team who can outrun CBs on deep routes. But as we saw last year and the year before, having a deep threat who's also a skilled veteran WR is completely overrated and not really a priority.

Water Boy · May 7, 2012

I think its a battle between Branch, Stallworth, Ochocinco (and I'll through Ebert into the mix) for the 4th wide receiver position. If Ocho can learn the playbook, I think its his position to lose. Branch may be a shadow roster candidate.

Welker
Lloyd
Gaffney
?
Edleman
Slater

mayoclinic · May 8, 2012

Greg Knopping's cut at the WR depth chart:

1a. Wes Welker, 30 (slot): Welker is the Patriots top option at the slot receiver position and is the best in the league at what he does. Currently, he is not under contract as he has yet to sign his franchise tender.

1b. Brandon Lloyd, 30 (outside): The Patriots signed Brandon Lloyd to a three year contract this offseason. He figures to serve as the Patriots' top outside target due to his deep threat ability.

3. Jabar Gaffney, 31: Gaffney gets a slight advantage over Deion Branch due to his size and recent production. The team signed Gaffney to a two-year deal, and that indicates that they envision him playing a significant role in 2012.

4. Deion Branch, 32: Branch isn't the athlete he once was, but he still has a chemistry with quarterback Tom Brady that no one has ever been able to match. He will likely have a reduced role in 2012.

5. Donte Stallworth, 31: Stallworth has shown he can still be a deep threat with his speed. He's likely competing with Chad Ochocinco for one roster spot. Even in a more limited role with the Redskins, he had a stronger season than Ochocinco in 2011.

6. Chad Ochocinco, 34: Despite his advanced years for an NFL wide receiver (34), Chad Ochocinco showed in 2011 that he is still an explosive athlete and talented receiver. In terms of talent, he's probably in the top three at the position for the Patriots. When it comes to Ocho's chances to make the roster, it all depends on whether or not he can learn the playbook and get on sync with Tom Brady this offseason.

7. Julian Edelman, 25: Edelman still has a lot of potential as a slot WR, even though his production has dropped the last two years. He's been pushed down the depth chart, but his young age (25) and experience on special teams and defense likely make him a safe bet for the final roster.

8. Anthony Gonzalez, 27: If Gonzalez can stay healthy, he'll have a chance to unseat a veteran for a roster spot. If he can't stay healthy or return to his previous form, the Patriots will more than likely show him the door.

9. Matthew Slater, 26: Matt Slater probably won't factor into the team's plans at receiver in 2012. However, the team just re-signed him to a long term deal, and his prominence as a special teams standout make him a roster lock.

10. Britt Davis, 26: Davis is a big, developmental receiver who could be a candidate for a practice squad spot in 2012.

11. Jeremy Ebert, 23: The Patriots selected Ebert in the seventh round out of Northwestern. He can play the slot well, but is a longshot for a spot on the final roster due to how crowded it is. Practice squad candidate for 2012, with an eye on the future.

12. Matt Roark: At 6'5", 215, Roark is an undrafted free agent out of Kentucky who can factor as a receiver, special teams and even started at quarterback in a game. Practice squad candidate.

Patriots Officially Sign Jabar Gaffney; WR Depth Chart Reset - Pats Pulpit

I'm not 100% in agreement with the order, but the top 6 guys on Knopping's list are all 30-34 years old. I'm rooting for Anthony Gonzalez to not get injured and make the team just to have someone under 30 in the pipeline.

Gronkandez · May 8, 2012

6. Chad Ochocinco, 34: Despite his advanced years for an NFL wide receiver (34), Chad Ochocinco showed in 2011 that he is still an explosive athlete and talented receiver. In terms of talent, he's probably in the top three at the position for the Patriots. When it comes to Ocho's chances to make the roster, it all depends on whether or not he can learn the playbook and get on sync with Tom Brady this offseason.

Hmmm...

I have more faith in gonzo than most people. If he stays healthy during training camp and preseason which shouldn't be that hard, I think he has the advantage of youth and upside.

I have less faith in Branch and Stallworth than most.

brdmaverick · May 8, 2012

Should Edelman really be the lock that we think he is?

After all, he may play all three phases of the game, but is he really that valuable if he is only 'above average' in one phase (ST)?

Gronkandez · May 8, 2012

brdmaverick said:
Should Edelman really be the lock that we think he is?

After all, he may play all three phases of the game, but is he really that valuable if he is only 'above average' in one phase (ST)?

HA HA! Don't say that too loudly around here. His proponents say he is a very good receiver as showcased his rookie year. Sure he only had something like 9 catches over the past two seasons but that's simply due to a lack of PT.

I personally agree with you but I just don't know who would return punts. It's one thing to have no KR, but punts are a little more important IMO. Welker is too valuable to put back there and Faulk shouldn't make the team.

Leemo · May 8, 2012

There is zero chance that Slater is cut, he may not be a WR but he is the special teams captain and just signed an extension.

Welker, Lloyd, Gaffney are the only 'locks' in my eyes to make the final roster. Edelman could easily be cut as just being solid as a returner may not be enough. Branch, Stallworth, Ocho, Gonzo and Edelman will battle for the last roster spots. Ebert will be on the PS.

HomerSchooled · May 8, 2012

I think Edelman stays. No player has proven more willing to do anything that's asked of him, and I think BB values that. But to classify him (and Slater, for that matter) as a WR may be inaccurate, as he'll probably see as many or more snaps next year as a DB.

I think 5 pure WRs make the roster, plus Edelman and Slater. If I had to guess, Branch and Gaffney stay because of their reliability. Even if for some reason Lloyd doesn't pan out, the offense won't take a step back if we have those two. That leaves one spot for Ocho, Stallworth, or Gonzalez. With Ocho renegotiating his deal to help the team, I think he's a tenuous favorite if only because it'd be in bad taste to cut him now. Seeing as Gonzalez and Stallworth got close to nothing guaranteed to come here, I think there's a chance they could last into the season as shadow roster candidates.

Obviously, if any of the guys at the bottom have an exceptional camp, Ocho, Branch, and maybe even Gaffney (depending on his contract) could all be in trouble. Of the guys towards the bottom, I could see Ocho or Stallworth being helpful to other teams. Both have managed moderate production without great QB play, and Fitzpatrick even has some experience with Ocho. If Ocho isn't available or willing, Stallworth has deep speed, and some ability in the short game. Either could be a decent pickup for Buffalo.

On our end, it's all very promising. We probably haven't had this much competition and fresh blood at the position since 2007. That worked out pretty well, as I recall.

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