All right, you guys have lured me back in.
Some thoughts:
1. Looking at previous years' early 1st round drafts and top 40/50 lists, there's a huge percentage incorrect. For example, look at Tony Pauline's top 40 lists for 2011 and 2012:
Tony Pauline: Quinn, Mallett highlight top 40 prospects - 04.27.10 - SI Vault
Andrew Luck, Justin Blackmon among top 2012 NFL Draft prospects - NFL - SI.com
Only 12 of his predicted top 40 for 2012 actually went in the top 40. 11 were drafted either in the 6th-7th rounds or became UDFAs. Chase Minnifield, Vontaze Burfict, Donte Paige-Moss, Mike Brewster, Jeff Fuller, Chris Owusu, and Matt Reynolds were all top prospects this time a year ago. The results from 2011 aren't that different. And Pauline is one of the better ones. You see similar things if you look at lists from guys like Chad Reuter, Pete Prisco, Bucky Brooks, etc. So we should expect that beyond the obvious (Matt Barkley will be a 1st round pick barring injury) that there's going to be a lot of turnover by the time the 2013 draft rolls around - guys will get injured, will have bad years, will have off-field issues. And other guys will emerge. Hell, RGIII and Morris Claiborne didn't show up on ANYONE's early 2012 mock, and they were top 6 picks.
Exactly. I'm glad you dug up those links as I was going to seek them out myself. The prospects that look good today, might look a whole lot different at the end of the season. For example, all the things that Burflict did good were expected to be built upon over the course of a new season, but weren't. His flaws were exposed, and his terrible pre draft measurables didn't help. Another guy, Dennard, was previously rated as a surefire top pick, but a change in system and an arrest pushed him waaay down.
2. The Pats' 1st round picks in 2005, 2008, 2010 and 2012 weren't on anyone's early 1st round projection or top-40 list. No one projected guys like Mayo, Mankins, McCourty or Jones to be 1st round picks a year in advance. It's extremely possible that whoever BB takes in 2013 won't be on the early 2013 1st round mocks at all.
3. While I love Barkevious Mingo, I'm going to ignore pass rushers for now on my 2013 list for the Pats, until I see how Jones, Hightower and Bequette work out. Mingo is my personal favorite of the 2013 group, but I have a hard time seeing BB go for a 245# pass rusher right now. William Gholston of Michigan St. is VERY interesting at 6'7" 280# (Vernon Gholston's cousin).
I'm with you on this as well. Mingo's game stands out as much as his name. He's a lighter in the pants Chandler Jones, with a good reportoire of moves and good burst. I'd love to have him on this team, but as you've said, he's not a need.
4. I feel the same way about DBs that I do about pass rushers. Until I see how the current group sorts out, I'm not thinking too much about DBs for 2013. Tyrann Mathieu is obviously an intriguing talent, and there are several solid prospects. But with McCourty, Dowling, Chung, Arrington, Wilson, Gregory, Dennard and Moore at DB I'd like to see how the current unit works and whether we keep Arrington and Chung (which I think is likely) before focusing on DBs for 2013. JMHO.
I really love the defensive backs who're able to come out next draft. David Amerson put up crazy numbers and could play either CB or FS and be a terror. The safety class also looks sooo much better. Eric Reid, Robert Lester, TJ McDonald, etc. If our secondary can't get it together, then next draft has options.
5. The NFL is currently a "run and shoot" league in which QBs, WRs, DBs and pass rushers are the sexy picks. That tends to push the other guys down. Remember 2003 when DTs went 4, 6, 8, 12 and 13? Only Marcell Dareus (#3 in 2011) and BJ Raji (#9 in 2009) have gone top 10 since then. "Elite" DTs have slipped to the teens such as Haloti Ngata (#12 in 2006), Nick Fairley (#13 in 2011), Fletcher Cox (#12 in 2012) and Michael Brockers (#14 in 2012) - all guys who were considered likely top 10 picks at one point. The 2013 draft is going to be loaded with QBs and pass rushers, and those should push some of the DTs down - even potentially "elite" guys like Johnathan Hankins and Star Lotoleili could fall into the teens, and potentially to within reach.
If the current list of chart topping QBs have good seasons then the bottom feeders of the draft (i.e. the Pats) are going to have some good talent come their way. The pass rushers and wide receivers will have a lot to do with that as well. What that means, as Mayo says, is the shift in "need" positions will push our needs down to us. I look at our top two needs being DT and interior offensive line. The top OG this year, who was praised as the best prospect in forever, went 24th! We could certainly be in range of a pick like that. As far as DT goes, its a position that isn't expensive as it used to be, but still will require moving up from the 32nd pick. Lotulelei and Hankins are the top two guys at this point, but with only so many picks available, we're certain to have someone good pushed down to us.
Just some food for thought.
