Garcon Deal Could Affect Welker Negotiations

At this point Wes is either playing the year out under the franchise tag or there's a chance, slight though it might be, they sign Danny Amendola or Eddie Royal and then flip Wes to KC. KC has money to spend and Cassel and Wes already have a relationship and chemistry. I think Tom would freak making this unlikely but there's still a remote chance.

everlong said:

At this point Wes is either playing the year out under the franchise tag or there's a chance, slight though it might be, they sign Danny Amendola or Eddie Royal and then flip Wes to KC. KC has money to spend and Cassel and Wes already have a relationship and chemistry. I think Tom would freak making this unlikely but there's still a remote chance.

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Amendola is almost literally a poor man's Welker: Welker's averaged 11 YPC for his career; Amendola's at ~8 YPC.

ctpatsfan77 said:

Amendola is almost literally a poor man's Welker: Welker's averaged 11 YPC for his career; Amendola's at ~8 YPC.

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Welker's numbers pre Patriots are only slightly better. I'm not saying he would match his production and they would obviously need to upgrade the outside in a big way if they went this route. I'm hoping it doesn't come to that.

ctpatsfan77 said:

Amendola is almost literally a poor man's Welker: Welker's averaged 11 YPC for his career; Amendola's at ~8 YPC.

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Welker hs TFB throwing him the ball, we can only speculate as to what Amendola's number would be if here were on the Pats.

If Welker thought they were remotely preparing to flip him he would not sign his tag prior to week 1. You can't trade a franchise tagged player until he signs the tag.

Most likely they are resigned to a worst case scenario where they pay him the tag for 2 seasons. They could have gotten him signed for 4 years with that much guaranteed money, but they low balled him instead on unguaranteed years by 2 and guaranteed money by about $4M and any negotiations hit a wall thereafter as a result. Welker will see that guaranteed money in two years one way or the other. And unless he suffers a catastrophic injury he will probably see whatever he missed out on on the back end as a FA at 33. Welker is a guy who always bets on himself, so I wouldn't expect him to sweat it or cave to the sure of security. Like he said, he's already made more money than he'd ever dreamed he would.

RDS11 said:

I think the contract Wayne signed with the Colts, will have a bigger impact on Welker that what the Redskins did with Garcon.
edit : profootballtalk says 3-year 17.5M total, 7.5M guaranteed.

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Very respectable, I'd pay Welker that in a heartbeat.

MoLewisrocks said:

If Welker thought they were remotely preparing to flip him he would not sign his tag prior to week 1. You can't trade a franchise tagged player until he signs the tag.

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I think if they were serious about flipping him it would be a Branch situation where they allow him to find out his value on the open market and work out a trade. No team is making a trade without the contract ironed out and the Pats aren't taking a contingency deal.

I think it's infinitely more likely as you said they tag him two years in a row assuming the production holds up. It's just a never say never with Bill.

drew4008 said:

Very respectable, I'd pay Welker that in a heartbeat.

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Why wes can play under the tag now get 9.4 million and if franchised he will get close to 11 next year.

why will take less ... help me understand. also at 2013 the cap floor is going to start. so if the pats let him walk he will get insane money from a team that needs to reach the cap floor.

drew4008 said:

Very respectable, I'd pay Welker that in a heartbeat.

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I'd pay Welker the veteran minimum in a heartbeat, too. Why would he take either deal?

Snake Eyes said:

Welker hs TFB throwing him the ball, we can only speculate as to what Amendola's number would be if here were on the Pats.

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replace Amendola`s name with ocho and we got 2010 rehash lol.....
Ocho had TFB throwing him the ball ...SO!

satz said:

replace Amendola`s name with ocho and we got 2010 rehash lol.....
Ocho had TFB throwing him the ball ...SO!

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I could also look at Marvin Harrison's numbers before he had Peyton throwing him the ball, his numbers were better afterwards.

Ocho has been declining and simply doesnt get the offense.

I think Welker will sign the tender, give us a good year, then be gone. That's not so bad. It keeps him motivated. We get another year of his services, albeit at a steep price, but don't have to worry about making a long term commitment.

We extend Edelman on the cheap late in the year and move him to the slot role in 2013. I know, he'll never get 1,500 yards. But he'll be a serviceable slot and a hell of a lot cheaper. 70 catches, 750 yards.

But I'd be thrilled to flip Welker to KC- or whoever- for a couple picks. A second and third this year, maybe. With these enormous contracts, the reduced rookie contracts look even better.

If there's any deal that would set the marked for Welker's it would be Colston's - because he's also a slot receiver who has benefited from a great offensive system and QB, and resigned with his original team.

So Colston got 5/40 with $19 mil guaranteed. Colston is 2 years younger, so Welker's worth is probably 4/32 with about $21 mil guarantee.

bucky said:

If there's any deal that would set the marked for Welker's it would be Colston's - because he's also a slot receiver who has benefited from a great offensive system and QB, and resigned with his original team.

So Colston got 5/40 with $19 mil guaranteed. Colston is 2 years younger, so Welker's worth is probably 4/32 with about $21 mil guarantee.

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So you think Welker will sign a shorter contract with the same average, even though he has like 50% more catches per year?

mtbpats said:

So you think Welker will sign a shorter contract with the same average, even though he has like 50% more catches per year?

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I don't know what Welker will sign for, but that's what I think he's worth. Colston gets more TDs and a much higher YPC. Which offsets much of the difference in receptions. The 2 years of age difference are also pretty significant. You're essentially getting 2 more years of Colston in his prime. Welker, at 30, just had a career year. I don't expect him to put up numbers that good again.

bucky said:

I don't know what Welker will sign for, but that's what I think he's worth. Colston gets more TDs and a much higher YPC. Which offsets much of the difference in receptions. The 2 years of age difference are also pretty significant. You're essentially getting 2 more years of Colston in his prime. Welker, at 30, just had a career year. I don't expect him to put up numbers that good again.

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That's what folks like you said when Randy left, too. Welker always seems to be the product of someone else's talents...

Welker may be 2 years older than Colston, but he's had 4 fewer knee surgeries - two of which were the dreaded micro fracture.

4/$34 with $18M+ guaranteed probably would have gotten it done in 2011, but like Bedard says the choice to deal with Mayo a year and a half early and then make him one of the top 3 paid LB's with a $9.7M AAV deal heading into a FA period where there would be no LB's resetting the bar was probably a mistake. Could have done him to that same deal this off season. Now the Welker deal will cost you more, one way or the other. Be that in AAV, guaranteed money for only 2 years or consequences (loss of mega production from any WR after this season). Reminds me of the old adage you can pay me now or pay someone else more later.

Welker deserves his own big haul - The Boston Globe

MoLewisrocks said:

That's what folks like you said when Randy left, too. Welker always seems to be the product of someone else's talents...

Welker may be 2 years older than Colston, but he's had 4 fewer knee surgeries - two of which were the dreaded micro fracture.

4/$34 with $18M+ guaranteed probably would have gotten it done in 2011, but like Bedard says the choice to deal with Mayo a year and a half early and then make him one of the top 3 paid LB's with a $9.7M AAV deal heading into a FA period where there would be no LB's resetting the bar was probably a mistake. Could have done him to that same deal this off season. Now the Welker deal will cost you more, one way or the other. Be that in AAV, guaranteed money for only 2 years or consequences (loss of mega production from any WR after this season). Reminds me of the old adage you can pay me now or pay someone else more later.

Welker deserves his own big haul - The Boston Globe

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That may all be more or less true. But the bottom line is that Welker's deal should be compared more to Colston's than VJax or Garcon or DJax. And actually, the Pats have a bit of a bargaining chip in that they can pay him $21 mil and then set him free on the market at age 33. There is no guarantee that he'll still be worth $6 mil/year at that point in his career.