Torn between FA WRs Mike Wallace and Brandon Lloyd...

Uncle Rico said:

Sounds to me like a miserable Jets fan spouting off. Hope it's true, but I can't imagine he'd have any insight.

I'm liking where Lloyd is at: Overcome some challenges, hitting some productive years for a WR age-wise, flourishing under Josh McD is HUGE. He's learned how to play in the NFL.

I have some concern over Wallace after reading this piece from Reiss:



I checked Wallace's stats and he did start out insanely fast last year. But after opening with three straight 100-yard games, he only had one the rest of the season.

Overall, I just feel like with where the Patriots and Brady are, Lloyd represents the surest bet to contribute right away, and that's important.

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Agreed: http://www.patsfans.com/new-england...-between-wallace-lloyd-page6.html#post2966821

Ice Cold Bruschi said:

BB will never give up a 1st rounder for him

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But would he give up a 2nd?

And if you would give up #33 for someone would you really not give up #31 for a young WR who is a legitimate deep threat?

His second half of the season pales compared to his torrid start - but he never could have kept up that pace and he still caught 5 passes thrown over 40 yards. I don't think anyone on the Pats had 5 passes caught thrown over 20 yards, let alone 40.

I'd want to know whether there was a reason for his 2nd half drop off too (is it health?) - but he continued to be a deep threat even with the dropoff. Teams still had to cover him in the 2nd half and those that didn't still got burned (St. Louis for example).

He doesn't need to rack up the same outrageous numbers (averaging 40 yards per catch in some games) - but his mere presence on the field stretches the defense more than the Patriots have seen for 2 years.

That makes everyone more effective - the RBs, TEs other WRs - and takes pressure off the OL and Brady.

I suspect any football fan anywhere would give up a 2nd rounder without a second thought - I'd love for someone to explain why he's worth it at #33 but not at #31 where the Patriots pick.

ivanvamp said:

Wallace vs. Lloyd - their best seasons:

Wallace (2010): 100 targets, 60 rec, 60.0 rec% (rec/tar), 1257 yds, 21.0 ypc, 10 td, 364 yac, 28.9 yac% (yac/yds)
Lloyd (2010): 132 targets, 77 rec, 58.3 rec% (rec/tar), 1448 yds, 18.8 ypc, 11 td, 198 yac, 13.7 yac% (yac/yds)

Seems like Lloyd is actually the better deep threat. If you remove yac from the equations, and just went with yardage gained upon the point of reception, here's what you have:

Wallace: 60 rec, 893 yds, 14.9 ypc
Lloyd: 77 rec, 1250 yds, 16.2 ypc

So Lloyd was catching the ball further downfield, on average, than Wallace was. It's not a huge difference, but anyone suggesting that Wallace is the better deep threat...well, when each guy has been at his best, Lloyd, with a worse QB throwing to him, put up better deep numbers.

Maybe it means that Wallace is more versatile, though, than Lloyd. Maybe he does a better job at the midrange routes. Who knows. Both are good receivers that would help the Patriots. Lloyd, I'm sure, would cost a lot less. Sign me up for Lloyd + Welker instead of Wallace + something less than Welker.

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Worse than Ben? IDK. Orton throws a pretty good deep ball; it's the short stuff into tight windows that usually gives him trouble (part of the reason his red zone stats aren't so hot). Also, the other side of Lloyd being successful in the "system" is the QB. The "system" basically amounts to a very extensive and disciplined use of option/timing routes based off the QB and the target being in sync reading the defense - something that Cutler, at his best in sandlot/gunslinger mode (like Favre and Roethlisberger), probably couldn't have adapted to as well as Orton did.

In any case, the fact that Lloyd appeared to function very well in such a scheme with a QB who could at least operate it with some effectiveness, does seem to indicate a potential for earlier success within the Pats offense than other candidates, but it doesn't guarantee it.

MaineMan said:

Worse than Ben? IDK.

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Kyle Orton shouldn't even be mentioned in the same sentence as Ben Roethlisberger, unless the sentence looks something like, "Unlike Ben Roethlisberger, Kyle Orton didn't get accused of sexual assault."

Take each of their best seasons, and here are their deep ball numbers (passes of 21+ yards downfield):

Orton (2009):
21-30: 14-33 (42.4%), 388 yds, 11.8 ypa, 1 td, 1 int
31-40: 4-9 (44.4%), 210 yds, 23.3 ypa, 2 td, 1 int
41+: 1-6 (16.7%), 75 yds, 12.5 ypa, 1 td, 1 int
TOT: 19-48 (39.6%), 673 yds, 14.0 ypa, 4 td, 3 int

Roethlisberger (2007):
21-30: 13-29 (44.8%), 324 yds, 11.2 ypa, 5 td, 2 int
31-40: 6-10 (60.0%), 212 yds, 21.2 ypa, 4 td, 0 int
41+: 3-8 (37.5%), 166 yds, 20.8 ypa, 2 td, 2 int
TOT: 22-47 (46.8%), 702 yds, 14.9 ypa, 11 td, 4 int

Looks to me like Roethlisberger is every bit as good (these stats indicate significantly better, actually) than Orton is at the deep ball.

EDIT: Ok, there are several sentences where "Roethlisberger" and "Orton" are used together. (and there's another one!)

robbomango said:

How much would Eddie Royal go for? He was a productive slot receiver until the John Fox option game arrived.

If branch and or Welker go he'd be a nice addition coupled with a deep threat, probably cheap as well.

Both had success with Josh: Lloyd, Royal

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A guy I like is SF WR Josh Morgan. He has good size (6-1, 200) and speed (4.47 40, 1.49 10). He can be had for less money vs all the other WRs that are on the market because he's coming off an injury and his stats aren't as good as those top guys. The WR market has a lot of good players available so he could get lost in the shuffle. He is extremely talented and improving. Before going down last year with a broken leg he had a really good start & was the 49ers best WR. He had 15 rec, 220 yards & and 1 TD in 5 games.

Josh Morgan, WR for the San Francisco 49ers at NFL.com

lloyd lloyd lloyd :rocker:

I'm not torn at all because it isn't Wallace vs Lloyd.

It's Wallace vs (Lloyd PLUS a first rounder). And if they trade the 1st rounder, even more picks.

BPF said:

A guy I like is SF WR Josh Morgan. He has good size (6-1, 200) and speed (4.47 40, 1.49 10). He can be had for less money vs all the other WRs that are on the market because he's coming off an injury and his stats aren't as good as those top guys. The WR market has a lot of good players available so he could get lost in the shuffle. He is extremely talented and improving. Before going down last year with a broken leg he had a really good start & was the 49ers best WR. He had 15 rec, 220 yards & and 1 TD in 5 games.

Josh Morgan, WR for the San Francisco 49ers at NFL.com

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Exactly why I think that we should not even begin to overlook the middle/low level FA's. Surely there will be a higher percentage of these types of signings here in N.England, although I would think that they will indeed show some interest in a big name guy at some pt too.

I'm not sure about Morgan specifically, as I don't know enough about him personally; but I like the way that you are thinking.

JoeSixPat said:

But would he give up a 2nd?

And if you would give up #33 for someone would you really not give up #31 for a young WR who is a legitimate deep threat?

His second half of the season pales compared to his torrid start - but he never could have kept up that pace and he still caught 5 passes thrown over 40 yards. I don't think anyone on the Pats had 5 passes caught thrown over 20 yards, let alone 40.

I'd want to know whether there was a reason for his 2nd half drop off too (is it health?) - but he continued to be a deep threat even with the dropoff. Teams still had to cover him in the 2nd half and those that didn't still got burned (St. Louis for example).

He doesn't need to rack up the same outrageous numbers (averaging 40 yards per catch in some games) - but his mere presence on the field stretches the defense more than the Patriots have seen for 2 years.

That makes everyone more effective - the RBs, TEs other WRs - and takes pressure off the OL and Brady.

I suspect any football fan anywhere would give up a 2nd rounder without a second thought - I'd love for someone to explain why he's worth it at #33 but not at #31 where the Patriots pick.

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No one but BB really knows the answer to this question, but I would tend to think that he wouldn't give up a higher 2nd rounder either.

A lower 2nd round pick? Maybe..but in my opinion nothing higher would ever cross his mind unless the player was an extremely elite player, and even then he may hit the phones around the league for some trade prospects (who would provide a much larger list than the 1st rd tendered FA's available) and talk with other teams.

I tend to believe that Belichick values these 1st and 2nd rd picks a lot more than we seem to realize, but of course that is just speculation and personal opinion.

Just b/c he hasn't always hit on them does not mean that they are suddenly up for trade or compensation, especially for a guy like Mike Wallace.

I really don't see why there is a debate here. It's Loyd of course. He's great outside the numbers. He's some thing like number 3 or 4 in the league over the last few years in terms of catches 20 yards or more downfield. He has great hands. It looks like his head is now on straight. He knows the system, loves it actually. Talks about how loves the route tree Josh introduced to him. Yes he's 30+, but so is Brady. He is what they need, we know he can play the system and should cost less than Welker or the other top 4-5 free agent wide receivers (Bowe, Colston, the Jacksons, etc.).

Wallace has unique speed, good hands and is younger. He'll cost a lot more in salary and most likely a 1st round pick that could be used on a future wide receiver if the Pays so choose. But more importantly we have. No idea if he can thrive in this system. He was raw coming out of college. He's gotten better, but I've seen several articles some including comments from his coach talking about how he is progressing in understanding how to run routes and recognize defenses. Loyd is there now, Wallace still learning. Also, the Steelers offense is not nearly as complex as the Pats offense and Rapistberger makes a ton of his plays downfield after he's flushed out of the pocket and coverages breakdown. That just isn't part of the Pats defense.

Personally, give me the guy with proven success in the Pats' system who won't require first round draft pick compensation or top WR money. Wallace has more upside than Lloyd, but the fact he plays in a simple offense and will cost the Pats far more in draft pick and compensation means he comes with far more risk.

If the Pats are going to go crazy on a free agent, go after Mario Williams, Dashon Goldson, Brandon Carr, Michael Griffin, Tyvron Branch, Cliff Avril, or Ladarius Webb.

A good evaluation of Wallace from Alen Dumonjic: The Tape Never Lies: Evaluating RFA Mike Wallace | Goal-Line Stand | Blogs | theScore.com

Rob0729 said:

Personally, give me the guy with proven success in the Pats' system who won't require first round draft pick compensation or top WR money. Wallace has more upside than Lloyd, but the fact he plays in a simple offense and will cost the Pats far more in draft pick and compensation means he comes with far more risk.

If the Pats are going to go crazy on a free agent, go after Mario Williams, Dashon Goldson, Brandon Carr, Michael Griffin, Tyvron Branch, Cliff Avril, or Ladarius Webb.

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Of all the free WRs, I'd love for Patriots to me a statement: Vincent Jackson.

Now, if Patriots willing to give Moss a 9m/yr deal, they should be able to fork over 10-11m for Vincent. Though, he may command 12m+ per year.

Remember, Patriots have had previous discussions with Chargers on Vincent...

zipster9 said:

Of all the free WRs, I'd love for Patriots to me a statement: Vincent Jackson.

Now, if Patriots willing to give Moss a 9m/yr deal, they should be able to fork over 10-11m for Vincent. Though, he may command 12m+ per year.

Remember, Patriots have had previous discussions with Chargers on Vincent...

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Vincent Jackson mantra the last 3 years : Get Paid, Get Drunk(2), Get suspended, Holdout, whine.

Yep, sure sounds like a Pats kinda player BB/Cesario will target when there's better, cheaper, and more consistent producing WR options out there.

So, 11 for Vjack, and 9 for Welker. 20mill for 2 WR's, lol. Might as well sign Colston while at it and make it a 30mill WR trifecta !

Put me in the neither crowd.....

Wallac - Most of his big plays are when ben runs around , we just do not have a QB like ben who makes things happen. Funny thing is Brandon tate big plays also happened when brady got into trouble and running around. In those condition pure atheletic ability takes over. The problem is ben actually holds on and on and has more those plays. Brady is a quick release guy....

Lloyd - 31 , Had a big year 2 yrs ago.... did his wheels fall off ?... not big enough to go against AFC CB like cromati ,Davis etc [2nd CB as i assume No 1 CB will be on Wes]...

Jackson- 1 DUI from a year suspension and is a know headcase. All it will take is 4-5 dumb routes where is freelancing for brady to shut him down.....


What i want is some one who can have production ,stay on the field and get physical with the CB talent in our division. Jackson with brains and no issue.

I am not looking for a game changer but someone who will produce 5-6 catches even against good CB and be a real asset.

satz said:

...Lloyd - 31 , Had a big year 2 yrs ago.... did his wheels fall off ?... not big enough to go against AFC CB like cromati ,Davis etc [2nd CB as i assume No 1 CB will be on Wes]...

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As I've already pointed out to you,

http://www.patsfans.com/new-england-patriots/messageboard/10/899993-mike-wallace-considers-pats-49ers-options.html#post2969200

your take on Lloyd is incorrect.


You posting the same erroneous claims on a second thread isn't going to morph them into truths.

BPF said:

A good evaluation of Wallace from Alen Dumonjic: The Tape Never Lies: Evaluating RFA Mike Wallace | Goal-Line Stand | Blogs | theScore.com

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Using two stills is less helpful than tape but I'd say Angerer was late rotating to the weak side seam because of the 2 TE set. Point is well taken, though. Post and bend routes are easy to run.

Sheffter - Steelers plan to tender, not franchise, restricted free agent wide receiver Mike Wallace, according to source close to Wallace.

And Rams have started contract negotiations with Lloyd.

What remains to be seen is whether they make Lloyd an offer he can't refuse (or assume we would match). He could be off the market by mid month. As for Wallace, there will be a bidding war for his services under the tender and we would likely be outbid for the priviledge of trading #31 anyway. In order to make a deal with an RFA stick you generally have to overbid market or inject a poison pill to keep the team that owns his rights from matching. Steelers would likely retain him on a team/cap friendly deal. Not sure we would ever do either. That's one reason we traded a bit more for Welker rather than sign him to an offer sheet.

I will say that Mike Wallace excells at what our current Offense lacks outside speed and he consistently takes the Safety with him also. So you guys are telling that Mike Wallace wouldn't open things up more for Welker - Gronk and Hernandez? Seriously guys we have to pick our poison. Pick 27 for Wallace...that would be a First round pick well spent on proven talent that fills a definite NEED...what's not to like? We have a very SLOW Offense that can be exposed by good Defenses...Wallace puts us in Elite territory. When was the last a time a WR on our Team caught a comeback? Terry Glenn Many moons ago. I love Vincent Jackson but i would take Mike Wallace over him easily.