CHFF:Tom Brady: Not So Terrific

upstater1 said:

I sometimes wonder what people are watching.

Uh, Brady used to launch bombs on target to Deion Branch regularly, he hit Bethel Johnson in the playoffs a couple times with bombs, he did it with Randy Moss.

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I looked up his deep ball numbers (passes thrown from 31-40 and then 41+ yds down the field). Unfortunately, they didn't have splits for him on that in 2001, so I'm just giving you what they have, from 2002-2011.

Career (2002-2011) 31-40: 39-146 (26.7%), 1588 yds, 10.9 ypa, 14 td, 10 int
Career (2002-2011) 41+: 26-91 (28.6%), 1357 yds, 14.9 ypa, 15 td, 10 int

TOTAL (2002-2011) 31+: 65-237 (27.4%), 2945 yds, 12.4 ypa, 29 td, 20 int

Now, let's factor in the Moss Effect. Specifically, that insanely great 2007 season when Moss caught everything that was anywhere near him (including one-handers).

In 2007, here were Brady's deep ball numbers:

31-40: 6-13 (46.2%), 256 yds, 19.7 ypa, 3 td, 2 int
41+: 7-17 (41.2%), 366 yds, 21.5 ypa, 5 td, 0 int
TOT: 13-30 (43.3%), 622 yds, 20.7 ypa, 8 td, 2 int

Those are terrific deep numbers. Take those out and here's what you get for Brady's career (from 2002-2011, less 2007, and including all passes 31+ yards downfield):

52-207 (25.1%), 2323 yds, 11.2 ypa, 21 td, 18 int

JFK said:

Jacksonville Jaguars 2007. Unless you count the Denver game in which he started up shaky

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What? They started on fire in the Denver game...

upstater1 said:

I sometimes wonder what people are watching.

Uh, Brady used to launch bombs on target to Deion Branch regularly, he hit Bethel Johnson in the playoffs a couple times with bombs, he did it with Randy Moss.

.

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Your memory is deceiving you. There was one Bethel playoff "bomb". Actually it was about 35 yards, but it was well thrown. He also completed one to Bethel against Seattle but Bethel was uncovered and had to make one of the greatest catches I've ever seen to haul it in. Not a good throw. As for all these bombs to Deion? One in the AFCCG against the Steelers. I remember one other one in a big game where he was tackled near the goalline. And that's it. Maybe 1 more? Moss? most were sky jobs that Randy went and got. He did make a few great deep throws to Randy--two against the Bills and of course the record breaker against the NYG are the ones that I remember.

ivanvamp said:

I think everything he says there is legit. Brady's accuracy on deep balls has always been the worst part of his game (besides running, which, really, nobody cares about). I have no doubt that Peyton Manning hits Gronkowski for the TD on that INT in the 4th quarter.

But lost in the article (or forgotten, anyway) is the fact that Brady is the only QB in history besides John Elway to have played in 5 super bowls. It's DAMNED hard to get there and even harder to win it all. Every great QB - including Montana - had some rough patches in the playoffs. Not one escaped that dubious distinction. Why? Because in the playoffs, you're playing the best teams in the league. It's easier to rack up stats - whether you're Tom Brady or Ryan Fitzpatrick - against bad teams. Much harder to do against great teams. You will find very few QB with better career playoff QB ratings than regular season QB ratings.

So in terms of Brady's 3-2 SB record....what's better: going 3-2 in the Super Bowl or going, say, 2-0? Well, 2-0 is a better winning percentage, but 3-2 means that you have gotten your team there 3 more times than the 2-0 player. Somehow it's better to lose earlier in the playoffs (or to not make the playoffs at all) than it is to lose in the Super Bowl? That's crazy. Think of it like golf...

Montana: 4 tournament wins, 0 2nd place finishes, a bunch of top 10's, a few missed cuts

Brady: 3 tournament wins, 2 2nd place finishes, a bunch of top 10's, and just 1 missed cut

Peyton: 1 tournament win, 1 2nd place finish, a bunch of top 10's, and a couple of missed cuts

Elway: 2 tournament wins, 3 2nd place finishes, a bunch of top 10's, and a few missed cuts

Favre: 1 tournament win, 1 2nd place finish, a bunch of top 10's, and quite a few missed cuts

I mean, when viewed like that, Brady's resume - especially when you include the number of records he holds - stacks up favorably against anybody.

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Football Outsiders would appear to agree with you and disagree with CHFF who has learned to play the media game...

Which brings us to the manner of legacy. Should our perceptions of Brady and Manning change based on Sunday's game? Two weeks ago we ran a table showing the best playoff quarterbacks since 1995. Here's what the table looks like after the Super Bowl:


Most Total Postseason DYAR, 1995-2011

Quarterback DYAR Games

Peyton Manning 2,317 19

Tom Brady 1,831 22

Kurt Warner 1,612 13

Drew Brees 1,330 9

Brett Favre 1,111 20

Eli Manning 837 11

Aaron Rodgers 832 7

Matt Hasselbeck 787 11

Ben Roethlisberger 634 14

Philip Rivers 595 7


Manning's performance in the Super Bowl bumped him up two spots on that list, passing Hasselbeck and Rodgers. He finished with 479 DYAR this postseason, so it's feasible that he could pass Favre or even Brees with one more Super Bowl run. While Rodgers, Roethlisberger, and/or Rivers could all pass him in the future, the present results match common perception: Manning's status has notably risen in the past five weeks.

But Brady? He remains in second place, and is closer to Peyton Manning's place atop the list now than he was before Kelly Clarkson sang the national anthem. And that reflects Brady's performance. He wasn't sensational, but he played well against a good defense while under constant pressure. It wasn't enough to win the game at the end, but that should be a credit to the Giants, not a sign of failure on Brady's part at all. The idea that Brady cost New England the game, that he somehow sullied his legacy, or even that he would have been better off not reaching the Super Bowl at all, is just silly.

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FOOTBALL OUTSIDERS: Innovative Statistics, Intelligent Analysis | Super Bowl XLVI Quick Reads

letekro said:

Your memory is deceiving you. There was one Bethel playoff "bomb". Actually it was about 35 yards, but it was well thrown. He also completed one to Bethel against Seattle but Bethel was uncovered and had to make one of the greatest catches I've ever seen to haul it in. Not a good throw. As for all these bombs to Deion? One in the AFCCG against the Steelers. I remember one other one in a big game where he was tackled near the goalline. And that's it. Maybe 1 more? Moss? most were sky jobs that Randy went and got. He did make a few great deep throws to Randy--two against the Bills and of course the record breaker against the NYG are the ones that I remember.

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Deion in the Panthers game.

upstater1 said:

Deion in the Panthers game.

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Thanks. That was the one I was thinking of where he was caught around the 10 yd line

JFK said:

Jacksonville Jaguars 2007. Unless you count the Denver game in which he started up shaky

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I was at that game and right near the end zone where I watched the famous Statue of Liberty play from Brady ... That game lives in my memory for the sheer brilliance of Brady's passing that day. He was picture perfect and hit every pass with precision and accuracy. It was a rare day for Brady, where he totally dominated them from the 1st snap.

Of course, I did have a sinking feeling after the next game (even though we won). Then, followed the dreadful SB 42. I watched the 16-0 in Giants stadium and at one point, it seemed as if it was a Giants game but the Pats pulled off the perfect season by making a last minute Brady to Moss connection for a TD. That was a close finish and I remember, when walking out of the stadium, surrounded by Giants fans (they were respectful to us, even though we were decked in Patriots gear), hearing their comments about how good Brady was but they thought they were a much better team after that, given how closely they contended with us.

In other words, they were measuring up to how good they were by the fact that they were not "dominated" by the Patriots. Now, they feel like they can take it to us every time, after this loss.

As a fan, I want us to go one time into Giants stadium and give them a 42-3 drubbing, like we did to the Jets. So far, every game has been close, with lucky breaks going Eli's way. At some point, his luck is bound to run out - it is the law of averages.

SVN said:

Tom Brady: Not So Terrific | Cold Hard Football Facts

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It is really too bad they let guys who never played the game write football articles. Man people can be so narrowed minded but that is life.

Note to people watching Brady's career.

All Superbowl games have been close....within a TD so this is the NFL and anything can and does happen (these are the best football players and coaches in the world).

We won the first three and lost the last two but unfortunately that is life and football. People keep ripping TB because he does not have it in the clutch like early in his career. Well Vinatieri is paired with TB on the first three as he did great driving them down for the FG win.

The last one vs the Giants we had to get a TD which totally changes the plays called into the huddle and the defense played against him. Brady was in tough in the end of the game having to march 80 yards for a TD vs 40-50 yards for FG. This is a team game and to hang this on Brady is ridiculous in my opinion.

I was really looking forward to ripping CHFF a new one for saying that it was "statistically impossible" for the Pats to win a Super Bowl...

CanadianPat'sFan said:

It is really too bad they let guys who never played the game write football articles. Man people can be so narrowed minded but that is life.

Note to people watching Brady's career.

All Superbowl games have been close....within a TD so this is the NFL and anything can and does happen (these are the best football players and coaches in the world).

We won the first three and lost the last two but unfortunately that is life and football. People keep ripping TB because he does not have it in the clutch like early in his career. Well Vinatieri is paired with TB on the first three as he did great driving them down for the FG win.

The last one vs the Giants we had to get a TD which totally changes the plays called into the huddle and the defense played against him. Brady was in tough in the end of the game having to march 80 yards for a TD vs 40-50 yards for FG. This is a team game and to hang this on Brady is ridiculous in my opinion.

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Flacco was lauded as a clutch hero for a comparable performance against a lesser defense, the loss was discounted on a better thrown dropped pass I guess. Not sure Brady's so easily forgiven for that scenario, It would've been the INT or he shouldn't have been in that position etc..

Cmp..Att.....Pct...Yds...Avg...TD....Int....Sck...SckY...Rate
22.....36.....61.1..306...8.5....2......1.......3.....24......95.4 AFCCG
27.....41.....65.9..296...6.7....2......1.......2.....10......91.1 SB46

Our D had zero turnovers, allowed Eli to complete 75% of his passes and 4.2 yds per carry rushing. Combined with bad field position from ST and the offensive mistakes, this was a complete team loss imo.

Peyton's 2nd SB victory would've been GOAT status, Brady's 3 for 5 isn't good enough for the media lynch mob. Reminds me of every movie where a hero gets thrown to the wolves. A bit melodramatic but for me it's an amusing comparison.
http://gifsoup.com/

BigHoss28 said:

This is ******ed. Any QB with that many opportunities in the post season is going to regress to the mean, just like Derek Jeter in baseball.

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There is a DIRECT correlation between Brady's regression and the Patriots decision to make this a QB-centric team.

Back in the day this QB and this offense was all about ball control, clock control and game management. Aside from obviously terrific personnel on the D in those years, a big part of the reason the Patriots D was so outstanding is because they were INTENTIONALLY kept on the sidelines as much as possible.
Those championship Patriot teams actually game planned to keep the other teams offense/their outstanding defense OFF the field. They game planned to limit the touches of a Peyton Manning by using their own offense as a game managing clock eating weapon and they won championships with that philosophy.
That all changed somewhere in '05/'06.
Why it changed I don't really know but I believe perhaps the absence of Charlie Weis had much to do with it. Weis had an ego as big as Tom Brady's and that was good because it kept Brady in check vis-a-vis Weis game plan.
Since Weis departure we've seen a steady stream of inexperienced O-coordinators and a steady rise in the stature of Tom Brady as Brady and his arm has been allowed to take over this offense - pass and pass again, empty backfield shotgun, push the ball down the field quickly.
A meaningful reliable running game has become an afterthought. Running the offense over center is a rarity. Once a powerful staple, the screen play is no longer a regular part of their playbook.
Clock management??
Ball control??
Downright laughable and in a bad way.
The end result of this metamorphosis??
Razzle and dazzle and record setting regular seasons by an offense that has scored a whopping 14 and 17 points in the last 2 SB's and couldn't play ball control or manage the clock if their lives depended on it.
But there is hope.
Tom Brady's age and an growing-ever-longer list of injuries is going to force the Patriots to finally reel him in, to get him and this offense back under the coaching staff's control and back in balance.
When that happens these New England Patriots will win another Super Bowl.

how many points did they give up to carolina in that superbowl?

robbomango said:

Flacco was lauded as a clutch hero for a comparable performance against a lesser defense, the loss was discounted on a better thrown dropped pass I guess. Not sure Brady's so easily forgiven for that scenario, It would've been the INT or he shouldn't have been in that position etc..

Cmp..Att.....Pct...Yds...Avg...TD....Int....Sck...SckY...Rate
22.....36.....61.1..306...8.5....2......1.......3.....24......95.4 AFCCG
27.....41.....65.9..296...6.7....2......1.......2.....10......91.1 SB46

Our D had zero turnovers, allowed Eli to complete 75% of his passes and 4.2 yds per carry rushing. Combined with bad field position from ST and the offensive mistakes, this was a complete team loss imo.

Peyton's 2nd SB victory would've been GOAT status, Brady's 3 for 5 isn't good enough for the media lynch mob. Reminds me of every movie where a hero gets thrown to the wolves. A bit melodramatic but for me it's an amusing comparison.
http://gifsoup.com/

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Good analysis, spot on!!

eom said:

how many points did they give up to carolina in that superbowl?

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Score was 32 to 29.

Patriots passed 48 times/ran 35 times and the TOP was nuts.
Pats had the ball for 38:58. The 4th qtr of that game was as crazy and any I've seen in any SB. Both teams went up and down the field. Brady threw a bad pick in that game and once again the Patriots all-time MVP Adam V. saved the day.

When was the last time Brady was terrific against a good/great team in the playoffs? You wanna see a clutch QB? Take a good look at Eli Manning. Now that's a truly "terrific" and clutch QB.

BaltimorePatsFan said:

When was the last time Brady was terrific against a good/great team in the playoffs? You wanna see a clutch QB? Take a good look at Eli Manning. Now that's a truly "terrific" and clutch QB.

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Yes, and at age , what 31?

Glad he lived up to the Manning family hype at some point. After all, didn't he whine and cry until he could go where he wanted? He's been an entitled brat from moment A and he's finally living up to the hype. So, yay?

Bella*chick said:

Yes, and at age , what 31?

Glad he lived up to the Manning family hype at some point. After all, didn't he whine and cry until he could go where he wanted? He's been an entitled brat from moment A and he's finally living up to the hype. So, yay?

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Why does his age matter? Everyone remembers John Elway as a winner because he went out with 2 Super Bowls when he was close to 40 and no one cares about his earlier more embarrassing losses. Unfortunately, the same thing will happen with Brady/Eli. TB will always be known as the guy who lost twice to Eli while Eli will always be the elite/clutch QB who led the Giants on 2 game-winning drives.

BaltimorePatsFan said:

When was the last time Brady was terrific against a good/great team in the playoffs? You wanna see a clutch QB? Take a good look at Eli Manning. Now that's a truly "terrific" and clutch QB.

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Great team, great coach, great owner, great QB, great season, I had a blast watching these guy's slug it out.

Go root for Eli if he's so terrific

Go Pats 2012:singing:

I honestly don't know how you all can put Tom Brady in the GOAT discussion....

All you ever bring up is the rings 'argument'. Do any of you actually know that he only threw for 1TD in the 3 games they played during the first superbowl win?

BaltimorePatsFan said:

When was the last time Brady was terrific against a good/great team in the playoffs? You wanna see a clutch QB? Take a good look at Eli Manning. Now that's a truly "terrific" and clutch QB.

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He's obviously surpassed your favorite 2010 QB...Sanchez. You're clueless.