Some stats and history fun for those that like this. The race for one of the most over-hyped but pretty meaningless record in football continues and got more interesting:
Brady 4897 1 game to go
Brees 4780 2 games to go
Brady leads by about 117 yards and Brees has to face a strong Atlanta team followed by Carolina which I don't expect to give him much trouble. Meanwhile Brady's gotta go up against the Bills which don't have much to play for other than pride. Brady might still be able to pull ahead at the end and I wouldn't put it past him. Having said that though, this definitely deserves an asterisk. On average passing yards per game have increased by about 7% per team since.
But Marino fans are going nuts talking about how much harder it was to pass back in the day. Well let's find out. What's Marino's 5,084 record estimated to be worth today? Well one could argue that if the level of QB's across the league remained fairly the same it would be worth a rough estimate of about ~5,439 yards.
In which case only Brees has a chance to get close to it and may still miss it unless he gets more than 659 yards these past two games. But that depends on whether you think there are less QB's worth a damn in today's league than during Marino's days. However if Brees really wanted to silence the critics, I would put up 700 yards for good measure, that is if Brees really cares that much about it. Then you could say he's probably truly surpassed Marino's single season yardage total. And it will still be as meaningless as the year Marino broke it and surpassed it back in 1984 when it comes to winning and losing.
However, if we're going to criticize the new era of QB's for taking advantage of the new rules, shouldn't we also criticize Marino for breaking the one previously set? Certainly it was even tougher to pass in the 70's than in the 80's, right? So then how much did Marino's record mean in comparisons to say...Joe Namath who passed for 4007 yards with them stinking Jets in 1967?
1967 24 teams 70770 total league passing yards or 2948 average yards per team.
1984 28 teams 102233 or 3651 average passing yards per team.
So Marino's record was 139% over league average yards or 39% higher in 1984. Namath's record was about 136% over league average yards or 36% higher in 1967. A little less but equally impressive considering it was an even tougher era. You could argue Marino earned it or you could argue the 3% is statistical noise and it's not much different than Namath's record set in 1967.
I'm not sure where 2011 will end up but:
2010 32 teams 120,755 yards or 3773 yards per team. So only about a 122 yard increase for the season overall compared 1984. Not nearly as drastic as some people want to make it seem.
In addition, the increase up to 2010 in passing yards has not been nearly as drastic since 1984 as it was from 1967 to 1984. Marino and other quarterbacks in the early 80's probably got the most benefit from the rule changes that took place in the late 70's as far as total yardage and more so than the QB's of this era have gotten with the rule changes since 1984.
In the early and mid-70's it was actually harder than the 60's to pass. One of the toughest generation: In the 70's it stayed around a pretty consistent 60k and dipped lowest in 1973.
1969 72370 total passing yards
1973 58009 total passing yards (the lowest dip before going back up)
And the largest incremental increases came in the late 70's:
1977 63594
1978 79557
1979 89170
1980 95935
What was the cause of it? Rule changes was one of it. For example, just in 1978 alone:
* To open up the passing game, defenders are permitted to make contact with receivers only to a point of five yards beyond the line of scrimmage. This applies only to the time BEFORE the ball is thrown, at which point any contact is pass interference. Previously, contact was allowed anywhere on the field. This is usually referred to as the "Mel Blount Rule"
* The offensive team may only make one forward pass during a play from scrimmage, but only if the ball does not cross the line and return behind the line prior to the pass.
* Double touching of a forward pass is legal, but batting a pass towards the opponent's end zone is illegal. Previously, a second offensive player could not legally catch a deflected pass unless a defensive player had touched it. This is usually referred to as the "Mel Renfro Rule". During a play in Super Bowl V, Baltimore Colts receiver Eddie Hinton tipped a pass intended for him. Renfro, the Cowboys defensive back, made a stab at the ball and it was ruled that he tipped it ever so slightly (which he denied) into the arms of Colts tight end John Mackey, who ran for a touchdown. Later, this rule was also the one in question during the Immaculate Reception in 1972. But despite these two incidents, the rule change did not occur until this season.
* The pass blocking rules were extended to permit extended arms and open hands.
* The penalty for intentional grounding is reduced from a loss of down and 15 yards to a loss of down and 10 yards from the previous spot (or at the spot of the foul if the spot is 10 yards or more behind the line of scrimmage). If the passer commits the foul in his own end zone, the defense scores a safety.
* Hurdling is no longer a foul.
* A seventh official, the Side Judge, is added to the officiating crew to help rule on legalities downfield. The addition of 15 officials (one per crew) forced three-digit numbers to be used for the first time.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1967_NFL_season
Now there is no rule change that took place since 2010 that's nearly as drastic as some of the ones that took place before it to explain the sudden yardage increase in 2011. The kick-off rules resulting in more touchbacks explains a portion of it but it has actually forced teams to travel a longer field which, while it increases the amount of yards credited to the total offense, it's not actually any easier for the offense when it comes to playing the game. You could argue it's a bit harder for offenses to score points this year than in the past since they have to travel a bit longer. I think the biggest difference is re-introduction of some high octane style offense like the Air Coryell by the Carolina Panthers as well as the lock-out, catching defenses unprepared earlier in the season. Lately, if you will notice, there have not been too many 400+ passing yard games.
But wherever the new QB single season passing records may end up, for them to be on the same level, they should probably be somewhere around 39% or higher compared to league average for good measure. In which case, not even Brees might get there this year. But it's also not worth 6,000 yards like some are going around saying. About 5,400-5,500 yards is the spot to shoot for.
), but it is a big deal.
