Drafting For Defense - 1st and 2nd Round

Deus Irae · Dec 13, 2011

mgteich said:
WHY NOT INCLUDE 2007
The 2007 was an awful draft class. Re-drafts show that Meriweather was a reasonable choice. We got value while he was here. We made no other 1st or 2nd or 3rd round choices. We did use two draft choices to trade for Welker and Moss.

The Patriots unceremoniously dumped a two-time Pro Bowl player. That's a fail pick, particularly given what went immediately after him:

Jon Beason
Anthony Spencer
Robert Meachem
Joe Staley
Ben Grubbs
Craig Davis
Greg Olsen
Anthony Gonzalez
Alan Branch
Paul Posluszny

mgteich said:
WHAT ARE HITS?
I think some define hits as studs. You and I probably agree on what the term means. I think sure starter is right for 1st and 2nd round picks, hopefully by his 2nd year. I believe that Spikes was our starting MLB this year and started much of last year at ILB. We all wanted a run-stopping ILB. Belichick was willing to use a 2nd to get one. He succeeded.

I like Spikes. He's a situational player, though, as opposed to a true starter. He's a definite hit on day two. On day one, I could see either side of the argument. I think Spikes has a chance to improve enough against the pass in a 3-4 defense that he'll be able to clearly remove the situational tag, but I'm not certain it'll happen.

mgteich said:
WHY NOT THIRD ROUNDERS?
First, I agree that Belichick has not done well recently in drafting after the 2nd round (other than trades or trading forward for a 2nd round pick). We do have Hernandez, not much to show for all the 3rd and 4th round picks. Belichick does do well late: Deaderick, Edelman, Pryor, and Slater.

This is a matter of personal preference. I consider Rounds 1 and 2 to be top draft choices. I consider 3rd and 4th rounders to be mid-round choices. In the past, 3rd and 4th rounders were expected to always make the team, barring injury. I consider the last three rounds to be late round picks.

So, what it seemingly comes down to is one big "hit" in rounds 1-3 since 2004, in Mayo, 3 players who were starters but certainly didn't reach an acclimation status (Hobbs, Chung, Sanders), 1 who has the jury still out (McCourty) and a bunch of lesser players (i.e. Spikes - good, but situational, player) or stiffs (several).

I think many people would look at just the two first rounders in 2003 and 2004 and think that was a better haul (Warren/Wilfork) than all the rounds 1-3 in 2005-2010 combined. Even for those who wouldn't, I'd think that the history going back to 2009 serves as a pretty fair indictment of trading down when you're not running a hot streak in the draft.

mgteich · Dec 13, 2011

And the 2000 draft was also better than 2005-2010 combined. Wilfork is a once in a decade player and a HOFer.

Remind me, did Warren make the pro-bowl in his rookie year? How many pro-bowls did he play? My guess is that Gronkowki will have at least as good a career as Ty Warren.

Deus Irae said:
The Patriots unceremoniously dumped a two-time Pro Bowl player. That's a fail pick, particularly given what went immediately after him:

Jon Beason
Anthony Spencer
Robert Meachem
Joe Staley
Ben Grubbs
Craig Davis
Greg Olsen
Anthony Gonzalez
Alan Branch
Paul Posluszny

I like Spikes. He's a situational player, though, as opposed to a true starter. He's a definite hit on day two. On day one, I could see either side of the argument. I think Spikes has a chance to improve enough against the pass in a 3-4 defense that he'll be able to clearly remove the situational tag, but I'm not certain it'll happen.

So, what it seemingly comes down to is one big "hit" in rounds 1-3 since 2004, in Mayo, 3 players who were starters but certainly didn't reach an acclimation status (Hobbs, Chung, Sanders), 1 who has the jury still out (McCourty) and a bunch of lesser players (i.e. Spikes - good, but situational, player) or stiffs (several).

I think many people would look at just the two first rounders in 2003 and 2004 and think that was a better haul (Warren/Wilfork) than all the rounds 1-3 in 2005-2010 combined. Even for those who wouldn't, I'd think that the history going back to 2009 serves as a pretty fair indictment of trading down when you're not running a hot streak in the draft.

Deus Irae · Dec 13, 2011

mgteich said:
And the 2000 draft was also better than 2005-2010 combined. Wilfork is a once in a decade player and a HOFer. Remind me, did Warren make the pro-bowl in his rookie year?

No, but he didn't wet himself in year 2, either, unlike the player you're likely attempting to compare to Warren. Your point/claim was that the Patriots have been fine in the early rounds of late. My response was an attempt (successful, I think) to show that to be a very dubious claim.

BTW, McCourty, even if he's "given" as a hit, would still be a first rounder, meaning BB hasn't had a bonafide, high-quality defensive "hit" outside the first round during his Patriots tenure other than in 2003. Some of that is because of an emphasis on offensive players, but the result (no high end young talent to replace the aging quality) is the same. If you want to see why the Patriots defense has lessened dramatically, that's a good place to start. BB has been much more successful drafting offense.

While I agree that the free agency situation has been a major problem, so has the drafting. The defensive decline has been the product of many facets of team building (draft/Free agency/trades).

mgteich · Dec 13, 2011

If you need a comparison, try comparing Warren as a draft choice with Gronkowski as a draft choice.

Deus Irae said:
No, but he didn't wet himself in year 2, either.

Deus Irae · Dec 13, 2011

mgteich said:
If you need a comparison, try comparing Warren as a draft choice with Gronkowski as a draft choice.

Why? We're discussing defensive players.

Armchair Quarterback · Dec 13, 2011

Chung may be the most overrated player on this board, he's just better than the Pats current group of safeties:

James Ihedigbo
Sergio Brown
Malcolm Williams
Nate Jones
A ball of string
An used up roll of duct tape
A 3 legged dog
Dryer lint

DropKickFlutie · Dec 13, 2011

Armchair Quarterback said:
Chung may be the most overrated player on this board, he's just better than the Pats current group of safeties:

Completely disagree. Belichick wouldn't have made his personnel moves at safety without having extremely high confidence in Chung.

Chung had 96 tackles last year and 55 this year in only 7 games, which is the type of production you see in only a few strong safeties in the entire league. Most strong safeties (including Rodney Harrison) are not strong in coverage, and Chung isn't really used correctly because our scheme has both safeties play deep almost every play, when Chung's real strength is playing at the line of scrimmage.

The_Riddler · Dec 13, 2011

Top 4 rounds over the last 5 years (excluding 2011) between the Steelers and Pats:

New England drafts (06 - 10)

2010

1 Devin McCourty Rutgers (Good - Jury is out)
2 Rob Gronkowski Arizona (Great)
2 Jermaine Cunningham Florida (Incomplete/Not looking good)
2 Brandon Spikes Florida (Good)
3 Taylor Price Ohio (Bust)
4 Aaron Hernandez Florida (Very Good)

2009

2 Patrick Chung Oregon (Good)
2 Ron Brace Boston College (Incomplete/Not looking good)
2 Darius Butler Connecticut (Bust)
2 Sebastian Vollmer Houston (Good)
3 Brandon Tate North Carolina (Bust)
3 Tyrone McKenzie South Florida (Bust)
4 Rich Ohrnberger Penn State (Adequate)

2008

1 Jerod Mayo Tennessee (Very Good)
2 Terrence Wheatley Colorado (Bust)
3 Shawn Crable Michigan (Bust)
3 Kevin O'Connell San Diego State (Bust)
4 Jonathan Wilhite Auburn (Adequate)

2007

1 Brandon Meriweather Miami (Good)
4 Kareem Brown Miami (Bust)

2006

1 Laurence Maroney Minnesota (Semi-Bust)
2 Chad Jackson Florida (Bust)
3 Dave Thomas Texas (Adequate - Hurt)
4 Garrett Mills Tulsa (Bust)
4 Stephen Gostkowski Memphis (Very Good)

Pittsburgh Drafts (06 - 10)

2010

1 Maurkice Pouncey Florida (Great)
2 Jason Worilds Virginia Tech (Jury is out)
3 Emmanuel Sanders (Very Good)
4 Thaddeus Gibson Ohio State (Adequate/Bust)

2009

1 Evander Hood Missouri (Very Good)
3 Kraig Urbik Wisconsin (Bust)
3 Mike Wallace Mississippi (Great)
3 Keenan Lewis Oregon State (Bust)

2008

1 Rashard Mendenhall Illinois (Very Good)
2 Limas Sweed Texas (Bust)
3 Bruce Davis UCLA (Bust)
4 Tony Hills Texas (Bust)

2007

1 Lawrence Timmons Florida State (Very Good)
2 LaMarr Woodley Michigan (Great)
3 Matt Spaeth Minnesota (Adequate)
4 Daniel Sepulveda Baylor (Adequate)
4 Ryan McBean Oklahoma State (Bust)

2006

1 Santonio Holmes Ohio State (Great)
3 Anthony Smith Syracuse (Bust)
3 Willie Reid Florida State (Bust)
4 Willie Colon Hofstra (Very Good)
4 Orien Harris Miami (FL) (Bust)

The Pittsburgh Steelers are a team of comparison and I use them because we have both traditionally been picking in the bottom of each round.

Pats (25 total picks)

4 - 1st round picks
9 - 2nd round picks
6 - 3rd round picks
6 - 4th round picks

Steelers (22 total picks)

5 - 1st round picks
3 - 2nd round picks
8 - 3rd round picks
6 - 4th round picks

(13 round 1 and 2 picks for the Pats compared to only 8 for the Steelers)

3 less total picks compared to the Patriots over the last 5 years and notice the 2nd round pick totals comparison:

The Steelers have only had (3) - 2nd round picks compared to the Patriots
(9) - 2nd round picks. The total of first rounders is comparable (5 for Pitt, 4 for the Pats) and look at the value they got from their picks, even when drafting more lower round picks than the Pats.

Pitt

(4 - Great picks)
(3 - Very Good picks)

New England

(1 - Great pick)
(3 - Very Good picks)

It's time to get someone else in here who can pick the groceries.

Armchair Quarterback · Dec 13, 2011

DropKickFlutie said:
Completely disagree. Belichick wouldn't have made his personnel moves at safety without having extremely high confidence in Chung.

Chung had 96 tackles last year and 55 this year in only 7 games, which is the type of production you see in only a few strong safeties in the entire league. Most strong safeties (including Rodney Harrison) are not strong in coverage, and Chung isn't really used correctly because our scheme has both safeties play deep almost every play, when Chung's real strength is playing at the line of scrimmage.

It's a matter of opinion, I was hoping he'd step up his game in year 3 and that hasn't come close to happening, partly because of injuries and partly because of his limitations and partly because of how he's used, I don't think he'll ever be good in coverage. Up to this point, he has not lived up to expectations as the 34th pick in the draft, like Spikes, not a "hit" at least not yet.

Armchair Quarterback · Dec 13, 2011

The_Riddler said:
Top 4 rounds over the last 5 years (excluding 2011) between the Steelers and Pats:

New England drafts (06 - 10)

2010

1 Devin McCourty Rutgers (Good - Jury is out)
2 Rob Gronkowski Arizona (Great)
2 Jermaine Cunningham Florida (Incomplete/Not looking good)
2 Brandon Spikes Florida (Good)
3 Taylor Price Ohio (Bust)
4 Aaron Hernandez Florida (Very Good)

2009

2 Patrick Chung Oregon (Good)
2 Ron Brace Boston College (Incomplete/Not looking good)
2 Darius Butler Connecticut (Bust)
2 Sebastian Vollmer Houston (Good)
3 Brandon Tate North Carolina (Bust)
3 Tyrone McKenzie South Florida (Bust)
4 Rich Ohrnberger Penn State (Adequate)

2008

1 Jerod Mayo Tennessee (Very Good)
2 Terrence Wheatley Colorado (Bust)
3 Shawn Crable Michigan (Bust)
3 Kevin O'Connell San Diego State (Bust)
4 Jonathan Wilhite Auburn (Adequate)

2007

1 Brandon Meriweather Miami (Good)
4 Kareem Brown Miami (Bust)

2006

1 Laurence Maroney Minnesota (Semi-Bust)
2 Chad Jackson Florida (Bust)
3 Dave Thomas Texas (Adequate - Hurt)
4 Garrett Mills Tulsa (Bust)
4 Stephen Gostkowski Memphis (Very Good)

Pittsburgh Drafts (06 - 10)

2010

1 Maurkice Pouncey Florida (Great)
2 Jason Worilds Virginia Tech (Jury is out)
3 Emmanuel Sanders (Very Good)
4 Thaddeus Gibson Ohio State (Adequate/Bust)

2009

1 Evander Hood Missouri (Very Good)
3 Kraig Urbik Wisconsin (Bust)
3 Mike Wallace Mississippi (Great)
3 Keenan Lewis Oregon State (Bust)

2008

1 Rashard Mendenhall Illinois (Very Good)
2 Limas Sweed Texas (Bust)
3 Bruce Davis UCLA (Bust)
4 Tony Hills Texas (Bust)

2007

1 Lawrence Timmons Florida State (Very Good)
2 LaMarr Woodley Michigan (Great)
3 Matt Spaeth Minnesota (Adequate)
4 Daniel Sepulveda Baylor (Adequate)
4 Ryan McBean Oklahoma State (Bust)

2006

1 Santonio Holmes Ohio State (Great)
3 Anthony Smith Syracuse (Bust)
3 Willie Reid Florida State (Bust)
4 Willie Colon Hofstra (Very Good)
4 Orien Harris Miami (FL) (Bust)

The Pittsburgh Steelers are a team of comparison and I use them because we have both traditionally been picking in the bottom of each round.

Pats (25 total picks)

4 - 1st round picks
9 - 2nd round picks
6 - 3rd round picks
6 - 4th round picks

Steelers (22 total picks)

5 - 1st round picks
3 - 2nd round picks
8 - 3rd round picks
6 - 4th round picks

(13 round 1 and 2 picks for the Pats compared to only 8 for the Steelers)

3 less total picks compared to the Patriots over the last 5 years and notice the 2nd round pick totals comparison:

The Steelers have only had (3) - 2nd round picks compared to the Patriots
(9) - 2nd round picks. The total of first rounders is comparable (5 for Pitt, 4 for the Pats) and look at the value they got from their picks, even when drafting more lower round picks than the Pats.

Pitt

(4 - Great picks)
(3 - Very Good picks)

New England

(1 - Great pick)
(3 - Very Good picks)

It's time to get someone else in here who can pick the groceries.

Any 1st rounder who gets released before his rookie contract is up cannot be considered a good pick(Meriweather).

borg · Dec 13, 2011

My issues and worries:

Issue 1: What did Belichick see on tape for him to believe that Haynesworth and Ocho would be solid contributors in 2011? These guys both had suspect/diminishing production in 2010...not to mention personality disorders. Belichick was either delusional, too enamored, or too confident in his rehabilitation skills....whatever ever his reasons to offer these guys sizeable contracts....BB was WRONG

Issue 2: His template of the ideal DB....speed, quickness, height, weight, IQ, etc.....has produced only future roster cuts. One point that intrigues me to no end is how opponents targetted McCourty with zero fear early in the season, despite his amazing 2010. My guess is the preseason detroit game, where the big WRs just abused him....the tape don't lie

Worries: The Pats payroll is getting top heavy with more big pay days coming in the next two years. On O, Brady, Mankins,..... Welker soon, Gronk in 2 years. The latter two are two stars that will command big dollars. On D, Wilfork is the lone big money. I don't see Mayo breaking the bank.
If Belichick plans to revamp his D next offseason, will he be willing to sign long term FA contracts. The D line is full of short contracts...Ellis, Carter, Anderson, Warren, Hayneswoth, Wright (I suspect he is done). Will BB continue to fill this line with aging Vets ? What choice does he have considering the holes throughout the D roster. Will BB continue to draft multitudes of DBs hoping for a hit. The worry is that the holes are so vast and the methodolgy of roster building is so rigid....$$$$ issues, philosophy of value....

Conclusion: The D is screwed for the next few years. The needs are too great to accomplish in one offseason and money will always prevent FA studs from finding their way on the roster.

Replaceable parts.....Guyton, Cunninham, Ellis, Wright, Warren, All DBs not named McCourty and Arrington, all Safeties not named Chung. Anderson....who knows. Carter should be extended, but a bigger contract may be out there from another team. Total revamp to go along with this years juggling act. Still scratching my head at the "2011 draft for depth" that provided ONE active participant. Very happy that BB addressed the RBs of the future....nice to too have 5 RBs this year....isn't it? No doubt Dowling was in their plans.....and they were right there...except for ignoring the "caution glass inside" warnings.

BlackandBlue1111 · Dec 13, 2011

Bill the COACH is without a doubt great, Bill the GM is without a doubt less than average.

JackBauer · Dec 13, 2011

BlackandBlue1111 said:
Bill the COACH is without a doubt great, Bill the GM is without a doubt less than average.

Actually there's significant doubt as to the veracity of your claim.

borg · Dec 13, 2011

mgteich said:
And the 2000 draft was also better than 2005-2010 combined. Wilfork is a once in a decade player and a HOFer.

Remind me, did Warren make the pro-bowl in his rookie year? How many pro-bowls did he play? My guess is that Gronkowki will have at least as good a career as Ty Warren.

Did you really write that Wilfork was a "once in a decade HOFer"?
Don't get me wrong, I love Vince and agree he is the best D player on the roster. His ability to be a 3 down player and play 95% of the defensive downs is even more impressive.
But looking back, Big Ted Washington was more of a force at nose tackle than Vince IMO, despite being a two down player. The fact that BB was willing to transition to 4-3 with hopes of letting Vince use his athleticism more in pass rush is certainly a plus . He flashes occasionally, but his effort shows more consitancy than brilliance. As far as HOF, playing a position that is difficult to quantify on a team proven to be horrible at pass rushing and pass defense...I just don't see the powers in charge of distinguishing Vincer's career in such lofty terms.

resdubwhite · Dec 13, 2011

Do we know what the 2013/2014 numbers are likely to be.

Cap numbers that is?

strngplyr · Dec 13, 2011

resdubwhite said:
Do we know what the 2013/2014 numbers are likely to be.

Cap numbers that is?

2013 should only be a few % increase, 2014 is when the new TV deals should kick in, I believe, resulting in something like a 40-50% increase.

^This is all going off of memory from threads a few months ago, I didn't look up actual numbers.

IllegalContact · Dec 13, 2011

Based on where thy were drafted, none of them are really 'hits'....in fact, one could argue tht each of the should do more based on where they were draft.

The last hit the pats have had on defense is wilfork

Mack Herron · Dec 13, 2011

JackBauer said:
Actually there's significant doubt as to the veracity of your claim.

Doubt is cheap. Got any facts? He could be average. But he gets paid way more than the average salary. Would anyone claim he is winning because the roster is loaded with superior talent? If not, his performance is more due to coaching than talent which, I believe, was his point.

PatsFan2 · Dec 13, 2011

mgteich said:
Obviously Belichick specializes in having more picks. The perception by many here is that recently, he does poorly with the picks. Belichick has had EIGHT defensive picks in the first two rounds in the 2008, 2009 and 2010 drafts. He has hit on 50% of those picks. It is possible there may still be some production from Brace and Cunningham as there was in their rookie year.

HITS
Mayo, Chung, McCourty, Spikes

MINOR PRODUCERS IN THEIR ROOKIE YEARS
Brace, Cunningham

FAILS
Wheatley, Butler

BOTTOM LINE
Belichick has done OK in acquiring talent through top draft picks. Lower level picks have produced only Pryor and Deaderick for the defense over these 3 drafts (plus Edelman and Slater). Some might think that late round picks were Belichick's specialty. It seems not to be the case for 2008-2010.

BTW, this same pattern is true on the offense. Belichick has been 100% in the first 2 rounds (Vollmer and Gronkowski). He has only Hernandez and Edelman to show for all the rest.

I believe the difference is that in the past Belichick did more with veteran free agents, late round draft picks and trades. Now, it seems to need to rely on UDFA's instead.

The Steelers have a magnificent hit ratio in the Draft...no wonder they have been competitive year in and year out. We have had too many misses in the Second and Third Rounds...look at Pittsburgh's hit ratio in those rounds.

Those picks are important and can keep a Team competitive for years to come. BB have Failed misserably on the Defensive side of the ball when you look the "What IF" picks. The Steelers have been solid across the board. BB needs to hand the grocery shopping to somebody else...he's not very good at Drafting...we have had waaayyyy too many misses. BB should stick to Coaching let someone else do the Drafting BB = Great HC Sucky Talent evaluator.

PatsFan2 · Dec 13, 2011

IllegalContact said:
Based on where thy were drafted, none of them are really 'hits'....in fact, one could argue tht each of the should do more based on where they were draft.

The last hit the pats have had on defense is wilfork

IC i completely agree...that's poor Defensive Drafting....and Guys were there for the taking.

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