Interesting points from Tom Curran

Doggin94it said:

I didn't say "Impact" players - I said contributors. And McKnight (leads the NFL in Kick Returns) and Connor (starting FB) are definite contributors. The Pats have not gotten enough contributors out of their drafts.

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The Pats haven't gotten enough contributors out of the draft? Says a biased Jets fan.

Here are the "contributors" that the Pats have had since 2006:
Laurence Maroney, David Thomas, Stephen Gostkowski, LeKevin Smith, Willie Andrews, Brandon Meriweather, Jerod Mayo, Jonathan Wilhite, Matthew Slater, Patrick Chung, Darius Butler, Sebastian Vollmer, Brandon Tate, Julian Edelman, Myron Pryor, Jake Ingram, Devin McCourty, Rob Gronkowski, Brandon Spikes, Jermaine Cunningham, Aaron Hernandez, Zoltan Mesko, and Brasndon Deaderick. The book is still out on Ron Brace. but, for this, I won't include him except as a negative.

Doggin94it said:

And if you want to compare starters (9 of the players listed start, and that's not counting Wilson) or level of impact (Revis, Mangold, Ferguson and Harris are a far, far better group than the Pats' best 4 picks from the 2006-2010 drafts - Mayo, Vollmer, McCourty and Gronk/Hernandez), that's fine too.

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Vollmer, Mayo, McCourty, Gronkowski, Hernandez, Chung, Meriweather, Mesko, Gostkowski.

Doggin94it said:

None of which addresses the point: as compared to a team like the Jets, the Pats miss on a far, far higher percentage of their 1st, 2nd and 3rd round picks. If the Pats could get their "hit percentage" up to even league average, they would be scary.

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From 2006 to 2010, the Jets have had 13 picks during the first three rounds. Of those 13 picks, You have Gholston, Schlegel, Ducasse, and Clemmens who did squat. For the Pats, you had Chad Jackson, Terence Wheatley, Shawn Crable, Kevin O'Connell, Tyrone McKenzie, and Ron Brace. So, the Jets have 9/13 who "contributed" while the Pats have 13/19 who contributed.

Do you even know what the "league average" is for "Hit percentage" I don't believe you do..

laurence maroney, willie andrews, lekevin smith, david thomas, jake ingram, myron pryor, jermaine cunningham, brandon deaderick, darius butler, julian edelman, brandon tate, jonathan wilhite... damn, that would be a nice start for a ufl team

meriweather was bad, chung looks lost, mesko and gostkowski are special teamers (the latter was replaced without a hitch by shayne graham off a couch), and mccourty and spikes are dumpster fires this year

aside from gronkowski and mayo, none of those guys are irreplaceable core players.

DaBruinz said:

The Pats haven't gotten enough contributors out of the draft? Says a biased Jets fan.

Here are the "contributors" that the Pats have had since 2006:
Laurence Maroney, David Thomas, Stephen Gostkowski, LeKevin Smith, Willie Andrews, Brandon Meriweather, Jerod Mayo, Jonathan Wilhite, Matthew Slater, Patrick Chung, Darius Butler, Sebastian Vollmer, Brandon Tate, Julian Edelman, Myron Pryor, Jake Ingram, Devin McCourty, Rob Gronkowski, Brandon Spikes, Jermaine Cunningham, Aaron Hernandez, Zoltan Mesko, and Brasndon Deaderick. The book is still out on Ron Brace. but, for this, I won't include him except as a negative.

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I see the problem - you don't know what you're talking about. You're essentially counting every player who played a down for the patriots as a "contributor".

More, you're treating first round picks and mid-round picks as though they ought to be judged by the same standard. What you got out of Maroney would have been great if he was a fifth round pick; as a first rounder, he was a failure.

Lets lay down some ground rules: if you cut them before their rookie deals expired, they aren't successful draft picks. (Tate, Butler, Wilhite). A second TE who was a mediocre blocker and caught 21 balls over 3 seasons isn't a contributor (Thomas). I'm not going to knock late round picks like Lekevin Smith - anything you get out of them is a bonus - but if you consider folks like Wilhite, Maroney, Butler, Andrews, and Tate successful picks, I don't know what else to tell you.

Vollmer, Mayo, McCourty, Gronkowski, Hernandez, Chung, Meriweather, Mesko, Gostkowski.

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Again, if you want to stack that up against the Jets' best picks over the same period, you can go ahead:

Volmer (2d team all pro one year) v. Revis - best CB in the NFL, on a hall of fame path. Not even a close competition.

Mayo (All pro ILB, playing poorly in the 4-3) v. Mangold - Best C in the NFL, on a hall of fame path. I'd take Mangold, of the two, but I can see an argument for Mayo.

McCourty (had a great rookie year, has regressed) v. Ferguson (Probowl LT) - Advantage Jets

Gronkowski (top ten TE) v. Harris (top ten ILB) - I'll take Harris, but again, I can see a contrary argument.

Hernandez (top 15 TE) v. Wilson (having one of the best CB seasons in the league this year) - Wilson, given the premium position he plays

Chung (average S, good against the run, weak in coverage) v. Sanchez (starting QB with 4 playoff wins) - easy edge to the Jets (say what you want about Sanchez - there's no team in the NFL that would trade Sanchez for Chung)

Meriweather (inconsistent, cut) v. Keller (top 15 TE) - no question, edge Jets

Mesko (Punter) v. Shonn Greene (RB) - Mesko looks like a good one. But he's a punter. No team would deal Greene for Mesko.

Gostkowski (K) v. Slauson (LG) - The Ghost is a damn good kicker, and guard isn't a hard spot to replace. Sure, give this one to the Pats.

From 2006 to 2010, the Jets have had 13 picks during the first three rounds. Of those 13 picks, You have Gholston, Schlegel, Ducasse, and Clemmens who did squat. For the Pats, you had Chad Jackson, Terence Wheatley, Shawn Crable, Kevin O'Connell, Tyrone McKenzie, and Ron Brace. So, the Jets have 9/13 who "contributed" while the Pats have 13/19 who contributed.

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That's ridiculous. Simple question - would you trade the 13 "contributors" you're talking about for the Jets' 9 contributors from rounds 1-3 over that period?

Do you even know what the "league average" is for "Hit percentage" I don't believe you do..

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Do you?

Deus Irae said:

This is true. While people use the term "crap shoot", only idiots really think it applies. What's generally meant is that it's an inexact process. You can have all the measurables, and you can think you have all the intangibles, but you never know for sure until the guy gets on the field. That doesn't mean that there aren't some who can do it well and some who can't, but it does mean that even the best make pretty big mistakes.



Very telling: From 2006-2009, the Patriots drafted

Mincey
Andrews
Smith
Meriweather
Brown
Rogers
Richardson
Lua
Mayo
Wheatley
Crable
Wilhite
Ruud
Chung
Brace
Butler
McKenzie
Pryor
Richard



If people want to be honest about this team, and want to have an honest discussion of what's going on with it and why the defense is such a concern for some of us, that's a pretty good place to start.

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And that steaming pile of dung (minus Mayo) was supposed to replace the likes of:

Ty Law 2004
McGinest 2005
Samuel 2007
Bruschi 2008
Harrison 2008
Seymour 2008
Vrabel 2008

Not even close. And no help again in 2011 with Ras-IR done. I don't have nearly as much of a problem with their offensive picks but their defense has gone completely downhill from talent standpoint, a coaching standpoint and from a scheme standpoint.

Darolyn72 said:

That wasn't a chance it was the 33rd pick after you just traded #28 away. Newsome could take a chance on Kindle because of the depth at Linebacker the Patriots had no depth at Corner.

Santonio Holmes won the Super with Ben in 2008, did you see it??? He just signed a 50 mill deal. They got rid of him because the Rooney's were worried about image of the team after Ben's attempted rape.

Dunlap is having a solid season, and let's face it, he's playing and Cunningham can't beat out Rob Ninkovich.

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That's an interesting use of words in the first sentence. About the only time I ever see 'you just did this', 'you did that' - or specifically in this case, "you just traded #28 away" - it is from a fan of an opposing team, and "you" refers to the Patriots and or Pats fans (as opposed to 'us', which would be the opposing team you follow and root for.)


Based on those words and the both the timing and tone of the vast majority of Darolyn72's comments, I'm inclined to believe that you are actually a fan of another team posing as a Pats fan. If true, that's not only lame; it's incredibly cowardly.

Ron Sellers said:

That's an interesting use of words in the first sentence. About the only time I ever see 'you just did this', 'you did that' - or specifically in this case, "you just traded #28 away" - it is from a fan of an opposing team, and "you" refers to the Patriots and or Pats fans (as opposed to 'us', which would be the opposing team you follow and root for.)


Based on those words and the both the timing and tone of the vast majority of Darolyn72's comments, I'm inclined to believe that you are actually a fan of another team posing as a Pats fan. If true, that's not only lame; it's incredibly cowardly.

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Jet fan:bricks:

How the hell can anyone make the case for Ferguson "improving" whilst the Jets running game has gone backwards in 2011 and the passing game isn't exactly "lighting" up the NFL?

I will never understand the inner workings of a Jets mind. Never.

First of all for those of you who are making comparisons to the Jets stop. We're not talking about the Jets. Although the Jets have at least been successful with trades and FA. Holmes, Edwards, Pace, Scott, Leonard. They also drafted Harris and Mangold

But, in reference to the Mock draft, that's why Bill is finally getting taken to task. People were familiar to some of the stud players availabe and just in general. People know this team had 4 needs. And high picks and then addressed one of them in Solder and then missed for the 20th time on Dowling. And word is starting to trickle out that Bill is overruling people and then missing on the pick. That's a problem Maroney and Dowling seem to be example of that. Also, Cunningham was a Bill guy.

Rob0729 said:

4. Santonio Holmes was not a great pick up for the Steelers. He had one very good year and a bunch of average ones. They unloaded him for a fifth round pick which shows you what they think of him.


Hey than you for exposing yourself as a fraud though.

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Are you kidding with that statement, they won a freaking Superbowl because of him.

Darolyn72 said:

"But if someone else in some other town had fanned on almost the entire 2006 draft, the entire 2007 draft, top-50 picks in '08 and '09, Adalius Thomas, Shawn Springs, Derrick Burgess, Tully Banta-Cain, Leigh Bodden, Chad Ochonono, Shaun Ellis and Albert Haynesworth? Right, that guy would be sitting next to Eric Mangini and Herm Edwards in Bristol."

Debate this Patriot pj people. Because its 100% true.

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Yup, quite possibly the WORST draft/free agency period in the league (yes I know they got Moss/Welker, which has netted them EXACTLY TWO PLAYOFF WINS in 07, 08, 09, and 10)...or at the very BEST, it's in the bottom eight/25%

Belichick's drafting is starting to resemble his drafting in Cleveland...you know, the kind of drafting that took Steve Everitt, Antonio Langham, Craig Powell in the first round...I really wanted to deny the poor drafting myself, as I was a Pats Pajama guy through and through for the longest time (moreso defending Pete Carroll to the fullest against the Parcells guys back in the late 90s), but it's been bad folks...

makoute said:

Are you kidding with that statement, they won a freaking Superbowl because of him.

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He had one great year. He has one season where he had over 1,000 yards receiving. that is what you look for from a first round pick is one year, then he was a good pick. He was by no means a horrible first round pick, but overall he wasn't a great first round pick. You expect your first round pick to be a consistent solid starter. One game, even the Super Bowl doesn't make a career.

But they didn't win the Super Bowl because of him. I would say that James Harrison had more to do with that win than him. Without that INT that was returned 100 yards for a TD, the Cards probably go into halftime with a 4 point lead instead of a 10 point deficit. The Steelers won that game by 4 points. That INT was probably a 14 point or at least a 10 point swing in the Steelers' favor. They won more because of Harrison.

Doggin94it said:

Frankly, if you could combine the Jets' hit percentage with the Pats' ability to pile up picks, you'd have a scary good drafting team.

I think you are undervaluing Wilson by a lot (statistically - he has the fourth best opposing QBR in the NFL of qualifying CBs, after Revis, Rodgers and [IIRC] Joseph - and via the eye test, he's a damn good CB). Yes, the Jets re-signed Cro at a big number (not as big as you'd think), but recall that was in the context of the lockout and not having a chance to evaluate Wilson over OTAs, etc - plus Ryan's system highly values CBs. Wilson would likely be the Pats' #1 corner right now, and would start on most teams in the league.

As for the 2009 draft, Sanchez has been good but not great, and has been getting better - albeit in small increments - year to year. The thing with Sanchez is he tends to have very good games and terrible games, rather than a string of mediocre games. That gives Jets fans hope; if he can eliminate "Bad Sanchez" and play to "Good Sanchez" more consistently, he'll justify that pick. Outside of the Ravens game (where he had absolutely no chance due to the loss of Mangold; the Ravens DL brutalized the Jets), he's actually been pretty decent this year: 60% completions, 12 TD-5 INT, 1,426 yards, 7.2 ypa, no QB Rating under 85.8

I know you can't just delete a QB's worst game in analyzing his stats - but the context of that game was not his normal context, and the point is that "Good Sanchez" has been showing up a lot more often this season than last year. Bottom line, as a Jets fan, I'm happy with the pick. Sanchez will likely never be a top five QB in the league - but he'll be an above league average starter with a knack for making plays in the clutch, and I'll take that. (You guys have been spoiled with Brady).

Greene is what he is - a decent back, league average as a starter, who can grind out tough yards and is at his best later in the season. Good enough for a third round pick. And getting a starting OL in the sixth round is great work.

Re depth - I disagree on some. The Jets' top 5 CBs are probably the best in the league (Strickland at 4 and Cole at 5 are better than most teams have, and 1-3 the Jets and Eagles are the only teams in the conversation) . . . don't need much more depth than that. The OL depth looks bad primarily because of the injury to Turner; had he been available when Mangold went down, there would have been much less of a drop off. The real problem was not addressing it when Turner went down. They do have a problem at OLB (though Maybin has been a nice surprise) and only go 3 WRs deep, which is a problem.

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Some points:

1.) I would still take McCourty over Wilson. Wilson is going against slot receivers while McCourty is going against #1 WRs. I don't know if Wilson could be nearly as effective going against better competition. Also, the QBR rating is misleading for a nickelback vs. primary CBs because slot receivers don't usually get the yards that deep WRs do which screws the stats.

2.) Sanchez is still the same QB he has been his entire career. He is wildly inconsistent and cannot put together a complete game. He can play like an elite QB at times, but makes horrible decisions others. Cherry-picking games does not change that.

3.) Greene is a below average starter until proven otherwise. He had a good game vs. the Chargers who looked to give up, but he is still averaging 60.9 YPG and 3.8 YPC which both are below average for starting RBs. Yes, BJGE has a lower YPG, but he has split carries with Stevan Ridley in a lot of games.

4.) You overrate your CBs. Yes, Revis is a god, but the other guys are overrated by Jets fans. Cromartie is not a great #2. He isn't horrible, but he is a liability in many games depending on who he is covering. He is also soft against the run. Wilson is probably underrated. The other guys are not nearly as good as you make them out to be.

5.) The o-line depth goes beyond Turner. His injury magnified the situation, but even with him the depth is weak. And eventhough he has improved in the last few weeks (could be the competition since neither the Pats nor the Chargers have a great pass rush), Hunter is still a question mark as a starter.

Rob0729 said:

Some points:

1.) I would still take McCourty over Wilson. Wilson is going against slot receivers while McCourty is going against #1 WRs. I don't know if Wilson could be nearly as effective going against better competition. Also, the QBR rating is misleading for a nickelback vs. primary CBs because slot receivers don't usually get the yards that deep WRs do which screws the stats.

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First of all, McCourty and Wilson are very different players. Wilson is at his best in press-man coverage (he's very fluid in and out of his breaks and can mirror receivers well), and McCourty is much better in zone than man (as you're seeing this year). Wilson is by far the better player for the Jets' scheme, and - given McCourty's year last year - it's hard not to say that McCourty was a better fit for the scheme the Pats were running last season. So I wouldn't necessarily compare the two as "this guy is better than that one." That said, McCourty has regressed, while Wilson has progressed. If that trend continues, Wilson will obviously end up the better player . . . but 7 mediocre to poor games are no reason to write McCourty's 16 terrific games from last season off as a fluke. I think McCourty will end up as a very good pick for you guys.

Second, slot receivers may not necessarily rack up yards (though your own slot guy doesn't seem to have that issue) but it is much harder to cover the slot than the boundary, since receivers not only have more options working out of the slot, but are next to impossible to jam (since they start off a step back of the line). More, if your "slot guys are easier to rack up great QBR against" point were correct, you'd expect to see slot corners at the top of the "QBR allowed" ranks. But they aren't there.

2.) Sanchez is still the same QB he has been his entire career. He is wildly inconsistent and cannot put together a complete game. He can play like an elite QB at times, but makes horrible decisions others. Cherry-picking games does not change that.

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I agree he is still inconsistent and can go from looking like an elite QB to looking like crap. But there are some encouraging (as a Jets fan) things going on.

First, he seems to have cut out the "downward spiral" games he had in years 1 and 2 (where he would make a mistake, press, make another mistake, and have things spin out of control to an awful game). The only game he's had like that this season was Baltimore - and without Mangold, the protection he got was so abysmal (which is a whole separate issue) that the awful result was more attributable to line failures than a Sanchez death spiral. That's a sign of real growth.

Second, and this goes together with the first, he's having fewer of those "horrible decision" moments on a game by game basis. While his first two years he had games where he was horrible (death spiral games), games where he was below average (many mistakes) and games where he was above average to good (few mistakes), he's now having mainly above average to good games. He's cut down on his mistakes (a 2-1 TD to INT rate is a good sign of that) and that's another sign of growth.

I'm not sure he'll ever get to the point of completely eliminating mistakes (only HoF level QBs really do that), but he's on track to get to the point of limiting them to levels you would expect from an above average NFL QB. Given his other qualities (leadership, clutch), that's good enough

3.) Greene is a below average starter until proven otherwise. He had a good game vs. the Chargers who looked to give up, but he is still averaging 60.9 YPG and 3.8 YPC which both are below average for starting RBs. Yes, BJGE has a lower YPG, but he has split carries with Stevan Ridley in a lot of games.

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Greene is definitely a below average starter (though the Jets OL problems are definitely contributing to his YPC). But he tends to get better as the year goes on (his style works best against tired defenses) and he's certainly been good enough in the playoffs. For a third round pick, he's fine. If you get that much from Ridley or Vereen, they'll be good picks as well.

4.) You overrate your CBs. Yes, Revis is a god, but the other guys are overrated by Jets fans. Cromartie is not a great #2. He isn't horrible, but he is a liability in many games depending on who he is covering. He is also soft against the run. Wilson is probably underrated. The other guys are not nearly as good as you make them out to be.

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Cro is what he is - when he's on, he's a top tier CB, and when he's not, he's bad. The coaches know that, and adjust how much help they give him based on how the beginning of the game goes. The "other guys" are what they are - Strickland would be a good nickel corner on most teams (though he's brittle), and Cole is good enough to be a fourth corner . . . and they're the Jets 4 and 5. There's a reason the Jets pass D has been as good as it is despite a lack of pass rush and playing the Pats, Cowboys and Chargers.

5.) The o-line depth goes beyond Turner. His injury magnified the situation, but even with him the depth is weak. And eventhough he has improved in the last few weeks (could be the competition since neither the Pats nor the Chargers have a great pass rush), Hunter is still a question mark as a starter.

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Disagree. With him there, the Jets were fine with an injury to any of their interior linemen. The swing tackle spot was a problem, though.

Doggin94it said:

Disagree. With him there, the Jets were fine with an injury to any of their interior linemen. The swing tackle spot was a problem, though.

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I don't have much time to answer all your points (although many there isn't much more to debate), but I will whole-heartily disagree with this point. We saw that when Mangold went down, the Jets clearly are not ok with an injury to any of their interior linemen. Granted Mangold is arguably the best center in the league and anyone would be a downgrade, but when he went out it was far more than a downgrade. It was a disaster.

Personally, I think that the Jets are screwed if any of their o-linemen go down. You cannot depend on Ducasse and the guy who replaced Mangold was so bad he isn't even on the roster anymore.

i Think the Moss part is 100% legit thats what were missing to making our offense more scary..

Doggin94it said:

Cro is what he is - when he's on, he's a top tier CB, and when he's not, he's bad. The coaches know that, and adjust how much help they give him based on how the beginning of the game goes. The "other guys" are what they are - Strickland would be a good nickel corner on most teams (though he's brittle), and Cole is good enough to be a fourth corner . . . and they're the Jets 4 and 5. There's a reason the Jets pass D has been as good as it is despite a lack of pass rush and playing the Pats, Cowboys and Chargers.

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Ok, I lied. I will respond to this. The Jets defense didn't particularly do well against the Cowboys. Yes, Romo imploded in the end, but did complete 63.4% of his passes for 342 yards, 2 TDs, and 1 INT. The Pats defense performed better than that against him.

Stopping the Chargers' offense hasn't exactly been a monumental task for most teams this year. Rivers is horrible this year for whatever reason.

Brady completed 72.9% of his passes for 321 yards, 1 TD, and 1 INT vs. the Jets. That wasn't exactly a stellar game by the Jets defense. Brady would have probably had better numbers if it wasn't for BJGE out Grounding and Pounding the Jets for 136 yards and 2 TDs. That's over 450 yards of total offense by the Pats.

Of the three games you mentioned, the Jets performed well against one of them. The other two teams scored more than 30 points and passed for more than 300 yards.

Rob0729 said:

I don't have much time to answer all your points (although many there isn't much more to debate), but I will whole-heartily disagree with this point. We saw that when Mangold went down, the Jets clearly are not ok with an injury to any of their interior linemen. Granted Mangold is arguably the best center in the league and anyone would be a downgrade, but when he went out it was far more than a downgrade. It was a disaster.

Personally, I think that the Jets are screwed if any of their o-linemen go down. You cannot depend on Ducasse and the guy who replaced Mangold was so bad he isn't even on the roster anymore.

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Did you even read what I wrote? Turner was the Jets' top backup on the interior OL. Had he been healthy, the Jets would have been fine during Mangold's injury (it would have been a drop off, but not severe enough to torpedo the whole offense). With Turner out, the Jets were down to their third string center, which killed them.

I'm not sure how you can point to what happened with Turner out as evidence that the Jets would have been screwed if Turner had not been out

Armchair Quarterback said:

What did Curran say that's inaccurate? That Bodden, TBC and Ellis didn't turn into good FA signings? That Brace and Butler haven't proven worthy of picks #40 and 41? Maroney? Meriweather? What's the issue here?

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Do you really have to quote Dabruinz it ruins my ignore of his posts! Is there a button for ingoring quotes of certain posters lol.

hodgey said:

Do you really have to quote Dabruinz it ruins my ignore of his posts! Is there a button for ingoring quotes of certain posters lol.

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There used to be a program for it if you were on Firefox. The developer stopped supporting it, unfortunately. If you have an older version of Firefox, you can look online for a version of the program. It allows you to put someone on ignore in such a way that it doesn't show up even when others quote him, and it can ignore people that can't be ignored with the ignore feature of the bulletin board.

It's very helpful when dealing with mods.

The program's name is Ffvb.

Doggin94it said:

Volmer (2d team all pro one year) v. Revis - best CB in the NFL, on a hall of fame path. Not even a close competition.

Mayo (All pro ILB, playing poorly in the 4-3) v. Mangold - Best C in the NFL, on a hall of fame path. I'd take Mangold, of the two, but I can see an argument for Mayo.

McCourty (had a great rookie year, has regressed) v. Ferguson (Probowl LT) - Advantage Jets

Gronkowski (top ten TE) v. Harris (top ten ILB) - I'll take Harris, but again, I can see a contrary argument.

Hernandez (top 15 TE) v. Wilson (having one of the best CB seasons in the league this year) - Wilson, given the premium position he plays

Chung (average S, good against the run, weak in coverage) v. Sanchez (starting QB with 4 playoff wins) - easy edge to the Jets (say what you want about Sanchez - there's no team in the NFL that would trade Sanchez for Chung)

Meriweather (inconsistent, cut) v. Keller (top 15 TE) - no question, edge Jets

Mesko (Punter) v. Shonn Greene (RB) - Mesko looks like a good one. But he's a punter. No team would deal Greene for Mesko.

Gostkowski (K) v. Slauson (LG) - The Ghost is a damn good kicker, and guard isn't a hard spot to replace. Sure, give this one to the Pats.

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You clearly have no idea whatsoever of what you're talking about, why are you even here? Comparing picks of players from different rounds of different years as proof of draft success?

Are you still in Grade 4 Math??