2011 Season Wins: Over/Under 11.5 (Vegas line)

SoCal Bong · Aug 22, 2011

Just got back from Vegas and the line is 11.5 wins. The best line I found was -110 at Golden Nugget Downtown. Cantor (Hard Rock, Tropicana, Cosmopolitan, M Resort) have -120 as does Station Casinos.

Most offshore books have -120 to -130.

If the Pats continue to look good in the preseason, the juice will continue to go up and once it hits about -130, the line may change to 12 (at +110?) so if you like this bet, I'd suggest getting it this week.

RobertWeathers · Aug 22, 2011

Take 11.5 and run.

13-3 is in the bag

supafly · Aug 22, 2011

robertweathers said:
Take 11.5 and run.

13-3 is in the bag

I agree with your season record prediction, but we could just as easily and be a game off, heading into week 17...

Therefore, I don't really see this as a great 'value' wager, as much as I agree it will go over by a game or two.

I'd hate to bet it, have an extremely solid 11-5 season, and still lose.

Amnorix · Aug 22, 2011

supafly said:
I agree with your season record prediction, but we could just as easily and be a game off, heading into week 17...

Therefore, I don't really see this as a great 'value' wager, as much as I agree it will go over by a game or two.

I'd hate to bet it, have an extremely solid 11-5 season, and still lose.

Amazing. Before Belichick/Brady, Pats never had a season with more than 11 wins. That includes the two Super Bowl trips. Now they're at 11.5 and 11 wins being called "solid" as opposed to GREAT.

The bar has certainly been raised.

PATRIOTSFANINPA · Aug 22, 2011

I don't think 11 wins will win the AFC East so I would bet above 11.5

My Guess is

Pats 12-4
Jets 11-5
Dolphins 8-8
Bills 6-10

billdog3484 · Aug 22, 2011

if this team's defense is as good as i think it will be, we should have no problem winning 11. i think 12-4 or 13-3.

i think our 2nd half schedule is very favorable. although, going to denver surely will not be fun as usual

patsinthesnow · Aug 22, 2011

The line should be 15.5.

supafly · Aug 22, 2011

supafly said:
I agree with your season record prediction, but we could just as easily and be a game off, heading into week 17...

Therefore, I don't really see this as a great 'value' wager, as much as I agree it will go over by a game or two.

I'd hate to bet it, have an extremely solid 11-5 season, and still lose.

Amnorix said:
Amazing. Before Belichick/Brady, Pats never had a season with more than 11 wins. That includes the two Super Bowl trips. Now they're at 11.5 and 11 wins being called "solid" as opposed to GREAT.

The bar has certainly been raised.

I'm not really sure what your point is?

My exact wording was "extremely solid 11-5 season"

I was huddled around the TV when we went throught the "squish the fish" drama in 1985. I realize that the bar has been raised. That's what having the NFL's best record in the past 10 yrs, and coming of a 14-2 season will do.

Maybe you don't remember an 11-5 season allowing us to miss the playoffs in 2008, or maybe you don't remember the NYJ or BAL record of 11-5 last yr needing to make the last 2 wildcard spots?

11-5 is..as I said..."extremely solid."

TommyD4207 · Aug 22, 2011

11.5 is a huge number. I'd have to think about it a while.

Ring 6 · Aug 22, 2011

supafly said:
I agree with your season record prediction, but we could just as easily and be a game off, heading into week 17...

Therefore, I don't really see this as a great 'value' wager, as much as I agree it will go over by a game or two.

I'd hate to bet it, have an extremely solid 11-5 season, and still lose.

Interestingly, if you took over 11.5 the last 8 years you would win 5 and lose 3

Ring 6 · Aug 22, 2011

PATRIOTSFANINPA said:
I don't think 11 wins will win the AFC East so I would bet above 11.5

My Guess is

Pats 12-4
Jets 11-5
Dolphins 8-8
Bills 6-10

I'm thinking, subject to further review

Pats 13-3
Jets 10-6
Miami 6-10
Buff 5-11

Sean Pa Patriot · Aug 22, 2011

at least 12 with the possiblity of 14-15.. but 2 things.. inj are always a factor, and it wont matter of how many wins in the reg season , it will always be ,, yeah you won 12 now what about jan....

Froob · Aug 22, 2011

I'll be surprised to see anything less than 12-4. I'd take that in a heartbeat if I had some cash.

AndyJohnson said:
I'm thinking, subject to further review

Pats 13-3
Jets 10-6
Miami 6-10
Buff 5-11

I'll go with this for now.

Patriots 14-2(Raiders & Broncos losses)
Jets 11-5
Bills 8-8(Uniform change sparks something for buffalo)
Fish 5-11

supafly · Aug 22, 2011

AndyJohnson said:
Interestingly, if you took over 11.5 the last 8 years you would win 5 and lose 3

Now that is impressive football my friend.

If I had to choose, I'd definitely go with the over, but...you just never know.

When the bar is raised that high to where you have to go 12-4, that's too rich for my blood. Now if I could find a site where it was 11 even, and you could push/break even at 11-5, I'd be interested. But alas, Vegas is just too smart for that.

I'm not a big 'futures' wager guy anyway, I just don't have the patience to wait all the way until Jan for a bet that I'm placing (for entertainment purposes only, of course) in Aug/Sept.

jmt57 · Aug 23, 2011

If you are going to bet, you have to leave all of your personal fandom aside; if you're unable to do that then you shouldn't bet.

The fan in me says 12-4, 13-3, 14-2, but the reality is that there are not a whole lot of teams that historically do that well in a given season. Injuries, 'any given Sunday', an upstart opponent, and it is not uncommon for a preseason conference favorite to finish 11-5, 10-6, or worse.

The bottom line is that the fan in me says make the bet, but the objective realist in me says it's not worth it. Vegas' numbers are based on getting people to bet on both sides of the line, so you're much better off finding a team that the masses assume will be bad once again, but instead is in line to improve their win total dramatically; 2010 examples would be St. Louis and Tampa Bay. The other option is to find a team destined to take a plunge like Carolina did last year.

If there's one team that seems to be off, I'd say it is Tennessee at 7 wins. New HC, new QB in an off-season with no OTA's, and Chris Johnson holding out? I'd feel better if I got 7.5 or 8, but I might be willing to go with the under on that one.

Ring 6 · Aug 23, 2011

Froob said:
I'll be surprised to see anything less than 12-4. I'd take that in a heartbeat if I had some cash.

I'll go with this for now.

Patriots 14-2(Raiders & Broncos losses)
Jets 11-5
Bills 8-8(Uniform change sparks something for buffalo)
Fish 5-11

How could we possibly lose to the Raiders? They may not win 3 games this year,

supafly · Aug 23, 2011

jmt57 said:
If you are going to bet, you have to leave all of your personal fandom aside; if you're unable to do that then you shouldn't bet.

The fan in me says 12-4, 13-3, 14-2, but the reality is that there are not a whole lot of teams that do that historically do that well in a given season. Injuries, 'any given Sunday', an upstart opponent, and it is not uncommon for a preseason conference favorite to finish 11-5, 10-6, or worse.

The bottom line is that the fan in me says make the bet, but the objective realist in me says it's not worth it. Vegas' numbers are based on getting people to bet on both sides of the line, so you're much better off finding a team that the masses assume will be bad once again, but instead is in line to improve their win total dramatically; 2010 examples would be St. Louis and Tampa Bay. The other option is to find a team destined to take a plunge like Carolina did last year.

If there's one team that seems to be off, I'd say it is Tennessee at 7 wins. New HC, new QB in an off-season with no OTA's, and Chris Johnson holding out? I'd feel better if I got 7.5 or 8, but I might be willing to go with the under on that one.

My thoughts exactly, all the way around. Nice post.

Deus Irae · Aug 23, 2011

Games against top/tough teams:

Jets (*2)
Steelers
Colts
Giants
Chiefs
Chargers
Eagles

Who knows with the Cowboys....

With the Chargers, Giants, Chiefs and Colts at home, and Pittsburgh being a team the Patriots have handled with Brady of late, that's a pretty good help with the schedule, but the Eagles have loaded up (and that game is on a short week for the Patriots following a Monday night game), the Chargers game is off a short week, and the Patriots have been splitting with the Jets under Ryan. I could certainly see why some people would be nervous about the number.

I'd take the over, though. I expect more than 11 wins from this team. There's a 6 game stretch that has the potential to be brutal (Steelers/Giants/Jets/Chiefs/Eagles/Colts), but the rest of the schedule seems to fall very nicely aside from the issue of the shortened week against the Chargers, and the Patriots do at least get the bye the week before playing the Steelers.

SoCal Bong · Aug 23, 2011

Also should mention that the Golden Nugget has the highest payout on Pats to win the Super Bowl at +600 while most other places have +500 or even +400.

borg · Aug 23, 2011

What kind of odds can I get for 23-0 ... (Pre 4-0. Reg 16-0, post 3-0)

2011 Season Wins: Over/Under 11.5 (Vegas line)

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