Drafting in Pairs, Lesson Learned?

Sean McCormick, Football Outsiders:

Part of the pain of missing on a first-round draft choice is that teams generally don't think about a Plan B.

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Agreed, especially when the hole you have at that ONE position is so great that success in the forthcoming season depends upon that one player you select in that years draft.

McCormick goes on to say....

The Bills drafted Aaron Maybin 11th overall in 2009 with the idea that he would develop into a premiere edge rusher -- and they haven't drafted a pass-rusher since. Unfortunately, Maybin has been a nonentity, and three years later the only alternatives on the roster are Shawne Merriman and Chris Kelsay, two big names who are only a shadow of their former selves.

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Tied for the third lowest sacks (27), the Bills inevitable lost a season, which couldn't be recovered despite their mid-season acquisition of Shawne Merriman. But how could they had known that Maybin would bust in his first year? What could they had done differently in the draft?

Hindsight would suggest that the Bills may not had faired that much better with any of the Defensive Ends selected later in the draft, but more importantly should they had double-dipped at the position had the value been there at Defensive End?

Given a team is investing an entire season on an untested, rookie talent, I believe it would be prudent to double-dip when the value presents itself to the point that the needs of team are fully addressed.

So what does this mean, in regards to Vereen and Ripley?

Clearly the running back position was getting older and less reliable [shadows of their former selves, as McCormick would say]. A need was developing at the position that Belichick was rumored to having wanted to fill with Pierre Thomas last season. While both backs are talented in different aspects of the position, I'd go as far as to say that Belichick was protecting the team from investing too much in one player at a position that was arguably critical to success in 2012.

I'd venture to say that 2010 was a successful example of double-dipping, when it came to the tight end position.

NFL: Biggest post-draft needs for every AFC East team - ESPN

TealSox said:

Sean McCormick, Football Outsiders:

Agreed, especially when the hole you have at that ONE position is so great that success in the forthcoming season depends upon that one player you select in that years draft.

McCormick goes on to say....

Tied for the third lowest sacks (27), the Bills inevitable lost a season, which couldn't be recovered despite their mid-season acquisition of Shawne Merriman. But how could they had known that Maybin would bust in his first year? What could they had done differently in the draft?

Hindsight would suggest that the Bills may not had faired that much better with any of the Defensive Ends selected later in the draft, but more importantly should they had double-dipped at the position had the value been there at Defensive End?

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The Bills could have drafted Chris Doleman and Lawrence Taylor that draft, And they still wouldn't be any good. Passrush is the least of that team's problems.

stop the madness.

the pats drafted 2 te 'cuz they like to carry 3, they planned on using more 2 te sets, and they had zero at the time.

I doubt they planned on going into the season with one te.

belichick was losing 3-4 rb, and if they want to carry 4 (or 5?) drafting one guy won't cut it.

he isn't drafting 2 at a position for redundancy.

I agree with the premise that when drafting that high you are basically selling your soul for at least 3 years to the position. But the Pats didn't double dip because it was safer. They were drafting different positions. Vereen as the 3rd down back and Ridley as the goal-line back. They will have different roles on the team.

IMHO, if the youngsters stay healthy...this could be the best run offense the Pats will have had in quite a while.....:singing:

If anything this points to the crap shoot that is an early first round pick.. see Maybin for the Bills and Gholston for the Jets..

Last year we drafted two LB's.. but still not sure what any of this means, except that many draftees look very good on paper.. but after that it is a stretch.

This year he drafted two RB's because he had two openings, and after the Fred Taylor experiment.. he chose youth. Many RB's only have X number of carries..

Yes, the patriots learned that when you need two at a position, then drafting two quality players is a good idea.

We had a need for at least 2 TE's last year and 2 RB's this year. The actual need was even more. So we drafted an additional TE this year, and might well have drafted a third running back had someone been there that Belichick wanted.

mgteich said:

Yes, the patriots learned that when you need two at a position, then drafting two quality players is a good idea.

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Back to Arthur Love and Jabari Holloway, the Patriots have been consistently drafting two to get one through the Belichick era (not that they wouldn't be happy to get two, I'm sure).

As for whether it's a good idea, well for every Gronkowski/Hernandez or Eugene Wilson/Asante Samuel there seems to be a Gus Scott/Dexter Reid and a Tyrone Wheatley/Jonathan Wilhite. But things have been working out pretty well overall.

I have noticed the pair thing myself over the years and have a simple theory.

When the Patriots have a pressing need (like running back this year apparently) they invest a ton of research in the position and discover a few gems along the way including some late round gems. After they get their guy they keep looking; in the later rounds they sometimes find one of these gems still available at what they think is a great value and draft him.

I think that this clearly happened with Hernandez. They already had Gronk in the fold and found Hernandez still on the board in the fourth; they had already checked him out thoroughly and thought he would be great value at that slot. They were right. I sure hope they are right about Stevan Ridley

Last year I felt great about the draft; not this year. It still seems like they muffed it...

FredFromDartmouth said:

I have noticed the pair thing myself over the years and have a simple theory.

When the Patriots have a pressing need (like running back this year apparently) they invest a ton of research in the position and discover a few gems along the way including some late round gems. After they get their guy they keep looking; in the later rounds they sometimes find one of these gems still available at what they think is a great value and draft him.

I think that this clearly happened with Hernandez. They already had Gronk in the fold and found Hernandez still on the board in the fourth; they had already checked him out thoroughly and thought he would be great value at that slot. They were right. I sure hope they are right about Stevan Ridley

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I think they invest a ton of research at ALL positions. I'm sure they could just as easily have drafted two wide receivers, if that was the route they were going. It seems to me that there's just too much of a pattern.

Here's an argument. Why do good college players bust? One reason may be that they don't make the right transition to the pros -- get too ****y or can't find their feet. The Patriots' culture specializes in keeping rookies humble. Two of them together forces them to learn and compete and not take their progress for granted. Of course, the Patriots always want depth at all positions, so that doesn't hurt either.

FredFromDartmouth said:

Last year I felt great about the draft; not this year. It still seems like they muffed it...

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I'm at peace with this draft. I don't know how the rookies will turn out as players. As people, they seem as you'd hope. The pass rush question remains, of course.

If it's a major need to the point you're spending a top pick to address it, it makes a ton of sense to double up. I think there are elements of competition to it, like a 1st rounder not wanting to be outperformed by a 3rd rounder. But if it's a need pick, then odds are the depth at the position is also awful. So both picks can make the roster and be upgrades.

Mike the Brit said:

Back to Arthur Love and Jabari Holloway, the Patriots have been consistently drafting two to get one through the Belichick era (not that they wouldn't be happy to get two, I'm sure).

As for whether it's a good idea, well for every Gronkowski/Hernandez or Eugene Wilson/Asante Samuel there seems to be a Gus Scott/Dexter Reid and a Tyrone Wheatley/Jonathan Wilhite. But things have been working out pretty well overall.

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As well as these pairs, BB brought Mayo and Guyton onto the team together too. I do think there is a dynamic where two rookies learning a position can sponge off each other, to their mutual benefit. I really dont think it's an accident that when BB fills a roster spot with a rookie, he does it in volume.

rookBoston said:

As well as these pairs, BB brought Mayo and Guyton onto the team together too. I do think there is a dynamic where two rookies learning a position can sponge off each other, to their mutual benefit. I really dont think it's an accident that when BB fills a roster spot with a rookie, he does it in volume.

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Guyton wasn't drafted, of course. Once we add in UDFAs, you could think of the influx of young defensive linemen over the last two years. Another obvious pairing would be Mankins and Kaczur (both college OTs).

Young players coming in to play the same position at the same time learn from one another as well as competing, and they also change the dynamic with the veterans -- for the better, BB evidently believes.

eom said:

stop the madness.

the pats drafted 2 te 'cuz they like to carry 3, they planned on using more 2 te sets, and they had zero at the time.

I doubt they planned on going into the season with one te.

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Concur.

The notion that Coach B deliberately drafts 2 when he wants 1 is one of the most insidiously asinine theories I've ever read, in a SEA of asinine theories.

***

MIND you: I am THE leading advocate of Depth of Talent.

There is no reason in HELL why we can't develop High Grade Talent behind the starters, rather'n rely on detritus and debris.

Mike the Brit said:

Guyton wasn't drafted, of course. Once we add in UDFAs, you could think of the influx of young defensive linemen over the last two years. Another obvious pairing would be Mankins and Kaczur (both college OTs).

Young players coming in to play the same position at the same time learn from one another as well as competing, and they also change the dynamic with the veterans -- for the better, BB evidently believes.

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Yep, the willingness to double-draft is a BB peculiarity which extends into their undrafted targeting. NE came away with two OT, two RB, and two CB out of nine picks in this draft, I expect another TE/H-back once UDFAs can be signed.

Off The Grid said:

Concur.

The notion that Coach B deliberately drafts 2 when he wants 1 is one of the most insidiously asinine theories I've ever read, in a SEA of asinine theories.

***

MIND you: I am THE leading advocate of Depth of Talent.

There is no reason in HELL why we can't develop High Grade Talent behind the starters, rather'n rely on detritus and debris.

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Agreed.

It would be completely asinine for any coach to select 2 of any position when he wants ONLY 1.

rookBoston said:

As well as these pairs, BB brought Mayo and Guyton onto the team together too. I do think there is a dynamic where two rookies learning a position can sponge off each other, to their mutual benefit. I really dont think it's an accident that when BB fills a roster spot with a rookie, he does it in volume.

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I don't think that is the proper article of analysis as this thesis would suggest a high 1st round ILB and then a 3rd or 4th rounder as well plus whatever UDFAs were willing to say yes to a Patriot's offer. The Patriots brought in Guyton as one of 15 or 20 guys who were shotgunned across almost all position groups and he was the one who happened to stick. I don't think this is a case of intentional double dipping, more likely fortuoitous double-dipping.

fester said:

I don't think that is the proper article of analysis as this thesis would suggest a high 1st round ILB and then a 3rd or 4th rounder as well plus whatever UDFAs were willing to say yes to a Patriot's offer. The Patriots brought in Guyton as one of 15 or 20 guys who were shotgunned across almost all position groups and he was the one who happened to stick. I don't think this is a case of intentional double dipping, more likely fortuoitous double-dipping.

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IIRC, the technical term for all of this is "co-inky-dink".

MaineMan said:

IIRC, the technical term for all of this is "co-inky-dink".

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No, I dont think it was a mistake--maybe it's a plesant surprise. Guyton was a Combine hero, but no one probably expected this much from him. BB is always fishing in the UDFA pool, and always hooks one or two.

I remember interviews during their rookie year where Mayo and Guyton referenced each other and the value of training together. Isn't that what this thread is about?

rookBoston said:

No, I dont think it was a mistake--maybe it's a plesant surprise. Guyton was a Combine hero, but no one probably expected this much from him. BB is always fishing in the UDFA pool, and always hooks one or two.

I remember interviews during their rookie year where Mayo and Guyton referenced each other and the value of training together. Isn't that what this thread is about?

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Well, the OP hypothesis/proposition was:

Given a team is investing an entire season on an untested, rookie talent, I believe it would be prudent to double-dip when the value presents itself to the point that the needs of team are fully addressed.

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Then, wrt to the RB duo drafted this year, the OP speculates that this was an example of deliberate "double-dipping" (for the sake of "douple-dipping").

I'd go as far as to say that Belichick was protecting the team from investing too much in one player at a position that was arguably critical to success in 2012.

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And then cites the draft of a TE duo in 2010 as further evidence.

I'd venture to say that 2010 was a successful example of double-dipping, when it came to the tight end position.

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Responders pointed out that these examples were coincident with having two open RB spots this season and two open TE spots last season.

Others then countered by citing previous "pairs" of players drafted at one position (Arthur Love, Jabari Holloway; Eugene Wilson, Asante Samuel; and, finally, Mayo/Guyton) as revealing a "pattern" indicating a deliberate "double-dipping for the sake of double-dipping" strategy.

I'm not arguing that there haven't been benefits derived from acquiring two players at the same position in one draft and I believe that those benefits would be worth double-dipping - when all other factors align properly to present a reasonable opportunity to do so. I'm arguing that there are too many unaccounted-for variables, many unique to each draft, to conclude that the all the "results" have proceeded from a pre-draft INTENT to double-dip as a draft strategy.

Also "co-incident" does not equal "mistake."