The Richard Seymour Draft Annuity

rookBoston · May 1, 2011

I cant believe there are still fans on the board griping about BB's decision to trade out of the 1st round. Have we learned nothing, people? They are already upset that even with two 1sts in 2012 BB is likely to trade one of those picks into 2013 anyway-- "so what's the point?"

Well, if it's not already obvious, let me spell it out. The point is that BB has a nice little annuity going that could run as long as he can find trading partners, and the payout is a 2nd round pick annually.

Here's where our first rounders this year have worked out this year...

2011 1st (#17) = Neal Solder (2011)
2011 1st (#28) = Shane Vereen (2011) + 2012 1st (New Orleans)

So, next year, lets say we get...

2012 1st (from New Orleans)
2012 1st (our own) = 2012 2nd + 2013 1st

... and suppose this trading is infinitely repeatable...

2013 1st (from trade)
2013 1st (our own) = 2013 2nd + 2014 1st

If BB keeps this up, he should be able to draft a 1st and two 2nds every year for the rest of his career. How's that for a nice little annuity? Thanks to the Richard Seymour trade plus his willingness to be patient, he has a system that will give him an extra 2nd round pick every year for... forever. Nice sustainable competitive advantage, I'd say. He's been incredibly successful converting 2nd rounders the last two years, with Gronk, Chung, Vollmer, Spikes, Cunningham proving the point that you can find game breaking talent with very low risk. Here's hoping the streak continues.

As a bonus, this approach gives BB the opportunity to be in the playoffs every year, and still choose a first rounder in the teens every year, instead of in the thirties. Gives him persistent access to a higher level of first round talent than the Colts, Eagles and Steelers will have a shot at, even if they fall out of the playoffs earlier than the Pats.

The Richard Seymour Annuity isn't the first time BB has had this opportunity. The Drew Bledsoe Annuity gave us a similar dynamic in 2003 and 2004.

2003 1st (#13) = Ty Warren (2003)
2003 1st (#19) = Eugene Wilson (2003) + 2004 1st (Baltimore)

2004 1st (#21) = Vince Wilfork (2004)
2004 1st (#32) = Benjamin Watson (2004)... so the loop stops, because he picked Watson instead of paying it forward into the 2004 2nd + 2005 1st

Now, imagine if BB had traded #32 to New Orleans in 2004, for a 2005 1st rounder plus their 2nd. The Saints selected Deverey Henderson with their 2nd, and the early 2005 1st rounder could have been Demarcus Ware. It would have meant keeping Christian Fauria on the roster a few years longer, not having Watson. But now, in retrospect, would that have been so bad?

Let's play it the other way... what if BB had traded up in 2003 instead of down? He could have traded as high as #4 overall, and instead of Warren, Wilson and Wilfork, he could have had his choice between Jonathan Sullivan, Dwayne Robertson or Terence Newman. It's laughable now, but a lot of fans on this board really wanted us to move up for a "blue chipper" like Sullivan.

Also, the Deon Branch Annuity showed some potential before a sad break-loop

2007 1st (#23) = Brandon Meriweather (2007)
2007 1st (#28) = Randy Moss (2007) + 2008 1st (San Francisco)

2008 1st (#7) = Jerod Mayo (2008) + Shawn Crable (2008)
2008 1st (forfeited, spygate)... so the loop stops, because the league slapped the team

Again, instead of trading down for Moss + Mayo + Crable and Meriweather, if BB had traded up from #23 + #28, he could have gotten as high as #8 overall, which could have been Jamaal Anderson, Ted Ginn or Patrick Willis, two of which have been huge busts.

It looks like BB isn't just playing this strategy game with his 1st rounders. He's doing the same thing by monetizing extra 3rd round picks into future 2nds, which he's done a few times now.

And trading Cassel + Vrabel to the Chiefs gave us Chung at 34, allowing BB to make an incredible series of trades that converted the #23 overall pick in 2009 into the following four players: Darius Butler (2009), Brandon Tate (2009), Julian Edelman (2009) and Rob Gronkowski (2010). Gronkowski is worth the 1st rounder on his own.

How is this possible? It seems as if BB is "creating" draft value. And, in fact, he is. The price to pay is a willingness to be patient. And patience can only come with job security and a confidence that he'll be there to take advantage of the good draft positioning in the future, which is something you can credit Bob Kraft for creating. I think we should all be grateful to be fans for a franchise that can afford to take the long view, and has the smarts and discipline to pull it off. So, stop whining and show some respect.

patchick · May 1, 2011

Great post, thanks. I think Pats fans have gotten so accustomed to having tons of picks to play with that we forget how extraordinary it is and how much advance planning and patience it requires. But "manufacturing value" is exactly right. It's like growing annuals vs. perennials.

The "annuity" I was sorry to say goodbye to this year was the 2009 #89. But that low-3rd pick sure worked hard for us, delivering Dowling (#33), Spikes (#62) and Mesko (#150):

2009 #89 --> 2010 #47
2010 #47 --> 2010 #58 + #89
2010 #58 --> #62 (Brandon Spikes) + #150 (Zoltan Mesko)
2010 #89 --> 2011 #33 (Ras-I Dowling)

Steamer86 · May 1, 2011

rookBoston said:
I cant believe there are still fans on the board griping about BB's decision to trade out of the 1st round. Have we learned nothing, people? They are already upset that even with two 1sts in 2012 BB is likely to trade one of those picks into 2013 anyway-- "so what's the point?"

Well, if it's not already obvious, let me spell it out. The point is that BB has a nice little annuity going that could run as long as he can find trading partners, and the payout is a 2nd round pick annually.

Here's where our first rounders this year have worked out this year...

2011 1st (#17) = Neal Solder (2011)
2011 1st (#28) = Shane Vereen (2011) + 2012 1st (New Orleans)

So, next year, lets say we get...

2012 1st (from New Orleans)
2012 1st (our own) = 2012 2nd + 2013 1st

... and suppose this trading is infinitely repeatable...

2013 1st (from trade)
2013 1st (our own) = 2013 2nd + 2014 1st

If BB keeps this up, he should be able to draft a 1st and two 2nds every year for the rest of his career. How's that for a nice little annuity? Thanks to the Richard Seymour trade plus his willingness to be patient, he has a system that will give him an extra 2nd round pick every year for... forever. Nice sustainable competitive advantage, I'd say. He's been incredibly successful converting 2nd rounders the last two years, with Gronk, Chung, Vollmer, Spikes, Cunningham proving the point that you can find game breaking talent with very low risk. Here's hoping the streak continues.

As a bonus, this approach gives BB the opportunity to be in the playoffs every year, and still choose a first rounder in the teens every year, instead of in the thirties. Gives him persistent access to a higher level of first round talent than the Colts, Eagles and Steelers will have a shot at, even if they fall out of the playoffs earlier than the Pats.

The Richard Seymour Annuity isn't the first time BB has had this opportunity. The Drew Bledsoe Annuity gave us a similar dynamic in 2003 and 2004.

2003 1st (#13) = Ty Warren (2003)
2003 1st (#19) = Eugene Wilson (2003) + 2004 1st (Baltimore)

2004 1st (#21) = Vince Wilfork (2004)
2004 1st (#32) = Benjamin Watson (2004)... so the loop stops, because he picked Watson instead of paying it forward into the 2004 2nd + 2005 1st

Now, imagine if BB had traded #32 to New Orleans in 2004, for a 2005 1st rounder plus their 2nd. The Saints selected Deverey Henderson with their 2nd, and the early 2005 1st rounder could have been Demarcus Ware. It would have meant keeping Christian Fauria on the roster a few years longer, not having Watson. But now, in retrospect, would that have been so bad?

Let's play it the other way... what if BB had traded up in 2003 instead of down? He could have traded as high as #4 overall, and instead of Warren, Wilson and Wilfork, he could have had his choice between Jonathan Sullivan, Dwayne Robertson or Terence Newman. It's laughable now, but a lot of fans on this board really wanted us to move up for a "blue chipper" like Sullivan.

Also, the Deon Branch Annuity showed some potential before a sad break-loop

2007 1st (#23) = Brandon Meriweather (2007)
2007 1st (#28) = Randy Moss (2007) + 2008 1st (San Francisco)

2008 1st (#7) = Jerod Mayo (2008) + Shawn Crable (2008)
2008 1st (forfeited, spygate)... so the loop stops, because the league slapped the team

Again, instead of trading down for Moss + Mayo + Crable and Meriweather, if BB had traded up from #23 + #28, he could have gotten as high as #8 overall, which could have been Jamaal Anderson, Ted Ginn or Patrick Willis, two of which have been huge busts.

It looks like BB isn't just playing this strategy game with his 1st rounders. He's doing the same thing by monetizing extra 3rd round picks into future 2nds, which he's done a few times now.

And trading Cassel + Vrabel to the Chiefs gave us Chung at 34, allowing BB to make an incredible series of trades that converted the #23 overall pick in 2009 into the following four players: Darius Butler (2009), Brandon Tate (2009), Julian Edelman (2009) and Rob Gronkowski (2010). Gronkowski is worth the 1st rounder on his own.

How is this possible? It seems as if BB is "creating" draft value. And, in fact, he is. The price to pay is a willingness to be patient. And patience can only come with job security and a confidence that he'll be there to take advantage of the good draft positioning in the future, which is something you can credit Bob Kraft for creating. I think we should all be grateful to be fans for a franchise that can afford to take the long view, and has the smarts and discipline to pull it off. So, stop whining and show some respect.

Great post. Many here forget or don't understand what is really happening, when BB trades back. I hope we can keep this going forever!

convertedpatsfan · May 1, 2011

In before the haters come in with Seymour = Solder.

But they don't understand the flexibility generated by that trade, which allows us to move around to gain picks. We would have moved #17 too if we got the deal offered to us at #28.

That flexibility ensures we can always get guys we target while also accumulating extra picks. If we didn't have #17, it might be more difficult to move from #28.

BritPat · May 1, 2011

What would we have done without trading Seymour? Likely we'd have been sat there on Thursday evening looking at a choice between the best DE and OT, as we needed both.

rookBoston · May 1, 2011

BritPat said:
What would we have done without trading Seymour? Likely we'd have been sat there on Thursday evening looking at a choice between the best DE and OT, as we needed both.

Without the Seymour trade, we would have been sitting at #28. And without the 2010 Carolina trade for their 2nd rounder, without the #33 pick as followup, our next selection would have been at #59.

With only #28, assuming BB still intended to fill his need at LT, Solder would have been off the board, and his best alternative would have been Gabe Carimi. Not bad, time will tell whether the dropoff is significant.

And at #59, BB would have had a choice between Vereen (lets suppose he would still have been there) or a CB, not both... or of course a player at some other position. The best available CB would probably have been Brandon Harris. By taking Vereen at #50, he moved #59 to Houston for two players, Ridley and Cannon.

So, the comparison is

(Option A)
One more year of Seymour before losing him to free agency in 2010
#89 3rd round selection (2010)
#28 Gabe Carimi (2011)
#59 Shane Vereen (2011)
#97 Presumptive 3rd round compensatory pick for Seymour (2011)

or

(Option B)
#17 Nate Solder (2011)
#33 Ras-I Dowling (2011)
#50 Shane Vereen (2011)
#73 Stevan Ridley (2011)
#173 Marcus Cannon (2011)
1st round pick (2012)

I already know which side of this decision tree I fall on.

Belichick's Midget Army · May 1, 2011

Great post. And it is kind of funny too, we end up with two first rounders every year somehow.

Ochmed Jones · May 1, 2011

While I understand and appreciate the various options and dynamics having multiple picks allow us, I still don't see where our versatility this year has helped our #25 ranked defense.

But I do see where our quest for options has helped the Jets out tremendously.

Maybe it is good that BB drafted a ton of offense, since we gave the jets some really good D line players.

convertedpatsfan · May 1, 2011

Ochmed Jones said:
While I understand and appreciate the various options and dynamics having multiple picks allow us, I still don't see where our versatility this year has helped our #25 ranked defense.

But I do see where our quest for options has helped the Jets out tremendously.

Maybe it is good that BB drafted a ton of offense, since we gave the jets some really good D line players.

Too early to know for sure, but it didn't seem like anyone at #28 was a huge upgrade over Brace or Deaderick for us.

I would have liked an OLB earlier, but the DL I've accepted wasn't going to happen without a big move up from 17.

SunnyDenmark · May 1, 2011

convertedpatsfan said:
Too early to know for sure, but it didn't seem like anyone at #28 was a huge upgrade over Brace or Deaderick for us.

I would have liked an OLB earlier, but the DL I've accepted wasn't going to happen without a big move up from 17.

Great point! DL is one of the deepest positions for NEP. As you mentioned, Brace, Deaderick, Kyle Love, Darryl Richard, Kade Weston (7th round 2010-redshirt year). Lets see if they progress this coming year. As there is a limited number of meaning game snaps available - I want to see if they improve or not before adding more developmental ( M. Wilkerson) bodies onto an already crowded heap. As the lockout is back in effect - is likely a Wilkerson type 2nd rounder would have been totally clueless out on the field with little to no offseason to comprehend BB's complex system. I would rather have one of the 2nd year players above get the snaps and see if they are long term keepers or not. Plus Brace needs to earn his 2nd round selection this year. Not to mention Ty Warren is back and there is also Pryor, Wright, M. Stroud, and Big Vince. Gerrald Warren could also be re-signed and there is also still free agency. D line has good depth as well as top quality talent (Warren, Wilfork).

I think this could be a redshirt year for many rookies without a new CBA- so no coincidence that BB took positions that can give production with only a shallow learning curve to the Pro level (RB, OT, OG, CB, blocking TE). Not to mention 4 team captains - you would expect them to be more responsible, mature and accountable during the coming months when they are basically on their own during the lockout.

P.S. Great thread -amazes me people don't appreciate the concept of this trading into next year- and getting a 2nd round pick as 'interest' to the first round (one year) loan.

upstater1 · May 1, 2011

Ochmed Jones said:
While I understand and appreciate the various options and dynamics having multiple picks allow us, I still don't see where our versatility this year has helped our #25 ranked defense.

But I do see where our quest for options has helped the Jets out tremendously.

Maybe it is good that BB drafted a ton of offense, since we gave the jets some really good D line players.

I've asked you this before. You're a Wilkerson backer. What do you see in his game? I've watched entire games of his on ESPN3 (still available) and he was awful. He plays soft. Gets tossed around by smaller players. He plays DE when smaller players for his team play DT. I really don't get how this guy is considered a first round value.

upstater1 · May 1, 2011

Another thing about Seymour. he would have been a FA in a year in which the Patriots gave Brady $20+ million, Wilfork $10 million, offered Mankins $7 million, signed Bodden to a $4 million contract. Say Richard would have taken a longterm deal for $12-13 million a year. That's $53-54 million a YEAR for 5 players.

Let me say that the probability of resigning Seymour would have been less than 5%.

So, when we talk about the Seymour for Solder trade, we need to realize, we're talking about 1 year of Seymour for Solder.

10 years from now, we may look back and say, "Wow, we got 10 years of Pro Bowl worthy LT play for 1 year of Richard Seymour."

ctpatsfan77 · May 1, 2011

patchick said:
The "annuity" I was sorry to say goodbye to this year was the 2009 #89. But that low-3rd pick sure worked hard for us, delivering Dowling (#33), Spikes (#62) and Mesko (#150):

As a very minor corollary to the OP and this post, it's worth noting that BB does not try to perpetuate individual picks so much as keep the train rolling from one year to the next. I don't think hr really cares whether it's the same picks or not, given how much he trades.

patchick · May 1, 2011

ctpatsfan77 said:
As a very minor corollary to the OP and this post, it's worth noting that BB does not try to perpetuate individual picks so much as keep the train rolling from one year to the next. I don't think hr really cares whether it's the same picks or not, given how much he trades.

Oh, absolutely. And it's not hard to argue that having the #33, born of #89's past, was what allowed them to give up #28 for the future first. I just enjoyed following that particular bouncing ball.

SunnyDenmark · May 1, 2011

patchick said:
Oh, absolutely. And it's not hard to argue that having the #33, born of #89's past, was what allowed them to give up #28 for the future first. I just enjoyed following that particular bouncing ball.

Yes. BB has publicly stated that having 2 picks somewhat close together does give 'a certain dynamic'. Which is Bill speak for an advantage -especially when weighing trade options. Sure, would be better if it were 2 close picks together at the top of the round. But 2 picks in the same round does give alot more flexibility.

Not hard to forcast that NO and NE first rounders will likely be close together at bottom of first round next draft. Would be funny if NE was #32 and our (NO pick) turns out to be #31!

TealSox · May 1, 2011

SunnyDenmark said:
Great point! DL is one of the deepest positions for NEP. As you mentioned, Brace, Deaderick, Kyle Love, Darryl Richard, Kade Weston (7th round 2010-redshirt year). Lets see if they progress this coming year. As there is a limited number of meaning game snaps available - I want to see if they improve or not before adding more developmental ( M. Wilkerson) bodies onto an already crowded heap. As the lockout is back in effect - is likely a Wilkerson type 2nd rounder would have been totally clueless out on the field with little to no offseason to comprehend BB's complex system. I would rather have one of the 2nd year players above get the snaps and see if they are long term keepers or not. Plus Brace needs to earn his 2nd round selection this year. Not to mention Ty Warren is back and there is also Pryor, Wright, M. Stroud, and Big Vince. Gerrald Warren could also be re-signed and there is also still free agency. D line has good depth as well as top quality talent (Warren, Wilfork).

I think this could be a redshirt year for many rookies without a new CBA- so no coincidence that BB took positions that can give production with only a shallow learning curve to the Pro level (RB, OT, OG, CB, blocking TE). Not to mention 4 team captains - you would expect them to be more responsible, mature and accountable during the coming months when they are basically on their own during the lockout.

P.S. Great thread -amazes me people don't appreciate the concept of this trading into next year- and getting a 2nd round pick as 'interest' to the first round (one year) loan.

Sadly, the 2011 NFL Draft may go down as an utter failure for teams drafting in the more comprehensive positions, including QB, WR, LB and DE. With so many teams loading up with talent in these positions and lacking the benefits of an off season team training program, these players will suffer and essentially the teams will suffer setbacks.

Speaks to the genius of Bill Belichick, who seems to realize the length of time to develop a 3-4 OLB in the Patriots scheme. He has always preferred veterans like Vrabel, Colvin and AD to a Clay Matthews.

capetide · May 1, 2011

Ochmed Jones said:
While I understand and appreciate the various options and dynamics having multiple picks allow us, I still don't see where our versatility this year has helped our #25 ranked defense.

But I do see where our quest for options has helped the Jets out tremendously.

Maybe it is good that BB drafted a ton of offense, since we gave the jets some really good D line players.

Care to explain how the Patriots gave the Jets "some really good D line players'? Did it ever occur to you that maybe the Jets intended on using their draft picks whether or not we did?

BTW I never once heard anyone associated with the patriots infer that they were going to draft your Temple binky.

WhiZa · May 1, 2011

While totally agree about the underestimating and being spoiled of all the picks we have each year. There's also something to be said about not using a pick and losing one year of having a valuable player on the team.

Dufflebagz · May 1, 2011

Good post, I hope the people who b!tch about the trading every year understand that we get something out of these picks, it's not just moving back a year as thay seem to think.

AzPatsFan · May 1, 2011

rookBoston,

This is a remarkable thread. Great Job. Great Analysis!

It is another reason I dislike Roger Goodell, as NFL Commissioner. He docked a First Round Draft pick, from the Patriots for a technical violation of taping in a non-approved location. Even though taping is not forbidden; and "stealing signals" is part of the game, and done all the time.

Yet he never even touched his precious Jets for their pre-meditated, pre-planned, interference and unsportman-like actions on Kick coverage. They paid no price, First round or Seventh round draft pick, for their actions.

Worse it ruined and interfered with Belichick's Draft Annuity. Who is to say what those un-harvested Annuity Draft picks might have produced? Another one or two Superbowl appearances, and a Lombardi or two? The Patriots were close. Would a few more good players have put them over the top? We will never know.

The Richard Seymour Draft Annuity

In the Starting Line-Up

Moderatrix

On the Game Day Roster

PatsFans.com Supporter

Experienced Starter w/First Big Contract

In the Starting Line-Up

Rookie

Pro Bowl Player

PatsFans.com Supporter

Third String But Playing on Special Teams

Hall of Fame Poster

Hall of Fame Poster

PatsFans.com Supporter

Moderatrix

Third String But Playing on Special Teams

TealSox

Guest

Practice Squad Player

Experienced Starter w/First Big Contract

2nd Team Getting Their First Start

Veteran Starter w/Big Long Term Deal

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