Watt, Jordan and (Quinn) - All Gone At 17

Belichick may not even be tempted to draft at 17, favoring to trade down. Is Heyward worth 17? Is Heyward worth 17? A trade down (to say 24) with compendation including a 2012 pick seems most likely. Most have one or both available at 28, or certainly at 24.

I think that Belichick would prefer 24, 28, 33 and 2012 pick instead of the present picks. This allows plently of flexibility later in the round.

Yes, we could trade up. If Belichick sees the value, of course he'll trade up. I just am preparing for the strong possiblity that Watt, Jordan and Quinn will be unreachable for reasonable value. BTW, I'm not sure that we'd even trade up to 12 or 13 for Quinn. Trade opportunities (up and down) should be available. Lots of teams may be wanting to draft a QB at 17.

A trade down is very possible there but I see no reason Heyward isn't worth #17. We took Ty Warren 13th and I think Heyward is as good a prospect as Warren was at that time. Unless Bill's value of DL has diminished since then I can't make a good argument why Heyward wouldn't be a solid value at #17 unless they think he can't add the 10-15 pounds that he could use.

mgteich said:

Belichick may not even be tempted to draft at 17, favoring to trade down. Is Heyward worth 17? Is Heyward worth 17? A trade down (to say 24) with compendation including a 2012 pick seems most likely. Most have one or both available at 28, or certainly at 24.

I think that Belichick would prefer 24, 28, 33 and 2012 pick instead of the present picks. This allows plently of flexibility later in the round.

Yes, we could trade up. If Belichick sees the value, of course he'll trade up. I just am preparing for the strong possiblity that Watt, Jordan and Quinn will be unreachable for reasonable value. BTW, I'm not sure that we'd even trade up to 12 or 13 for Quinn. Trade opportunities (up and down) should be available. Lots of teams may be wanting to draft a QB at 17.

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If all these players are choosen before 17 i would think there would be players such as Kerrigen, and A Smith still out there. Take on of them and M Wilkerson at 28

If I were pulling the trigger, I would trade down in round 1 while picking up a 3rd/4th next year. I don't know how the exact value would work out...

I'm not high on Solder or Castonzo and I don't see value in drafting a guard at #17.

That scenario is why they need to trade up

BelichickFan said:

A trade down is very possible there but I see no reason Heyward isn't worth #17. We took Ty Warren 13th and I think Heyward is as good a prospect as Warren was at that time. Unless Bill's value of DL has diminished since then I can't make a good argument why Heyward wouldn't be a solid value at #17 unless they think he can't add the 10-15 pounds that he could use.

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I agree about both trading down and Heyward being a possibility at 17. I think he could be a good fit here.

mgteich said:

Belichick may not even be tempted to draft at 17, favoring to trade down. Is Heyward worth 17? Is Heyward worth 17? A trade down (to say 24) with compendation including a 2012 pick seems most likely. Most have one or both available at 28, or certainly at 24.

I think that Belichick would prefer 24, 28, 33 and 2012 pick instead of the present picks. This allows plently of flexibility later in the round.

Yes, we could trade up. If Belichick sees the value, of course he'll trade up. I just am preparing for the strong possiblity that Watt, Jordan and Quinn will be unreachable for reasonable value. BTW, I'm not sure that we'd even trade up to 12 or 13 for Quinn. Trade opportunities (up and down) should be available. Lots of teams may be wanting to draft a QB at 17.

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That all makes perfect sense until you add the context of a top-heavy draft combined with a deep team that went 14-3 last year. What happened in those 3 losses? Very mediocre QBs had amazingly and uncharacteristically efficient games. Sanchez and McCoy started 27 games. Only 8 of those 27 starts had a QB rating of 100+. 3 of those 8 games came against the Pats. Seriously, the Pats made up 15% of their total starts but 38% of their best games. Do what you need to do to make sure that never happens again. Identify a few high-value targets and get them.

For this draft, 8 players have floors inside the top 16...
Miller #5
Dareus #6
Green #6
Gabbert #8
Peterson #9
Amukamara #11
Newton #12
Jones #14

Of the remaining 8, there is a possibility for a nightmare scenario for the Pats...Fairley, Bowers, Watt, Jordan, A.Smith, T.Smith, Quinn, Kerrigan. Easy way to fix that is to trade up. If T.Smith is gone before #13, Detroit will certainly be interested in moving down. #17 + #74 should be enough to do it. Now you are guaranteed that half of the "nightmare" 8 above will still be on the board and the cost wasn't very painful.

There is no earthly reason why the Pats should end up in a situation where they miss on a guy they really want because he doesn't fall to them. If they can get their guys without moving, great. If not, they need to go all in. Git er done. Sydney or the bush. Whatever. Just no regrets.

IMO I don't see any player other than Watt/Jordan/Quinn who are worth the value of the 17th pick. If they are gone I envision a trade down to the early 20s, while picking up a 2nd rounder to fill the void of 33-60.

I think then it's likely an OL is the target first, and though I'd list a G/C as more of a need than T it seems like the Ts are the better value in that late first round range.

17 seems too high for Wilkerson or Heyward to me.

The 17th pick is really on the fringe of being able to get a really good fit for the system. It will be a nailbiter watching it all go down.

mgteich said:

I just am preparing for the strong possiblity that Watt, Jordan and Quinn will be unreachable for reasonable value.

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Let's just focus on the DEs for a moment and leave Quinn aside. Why do most fans assume Belichick has Watt and Jordan ranked higher than Heyward and Wikerson? Haven't we seen him disregard consensus ranked players and select players who fit the team better, or represent better value?

Every draft there are top ranked prospects at each position. This doesn't mean that some or even most of them are Pats-type players.

Now to respond to the OP, the assumption is those three prospects may be coveted by BB, therefore if they're off the board by #17, the Pats may have to settle on the next tier of players. I'm suggesting that maybe only one, or two, or none of the three is even a serious target, and that Belichick may be targeting the lesser ranked players.

Let's speculate that BB is targeting Wilkerson who's been hovering around the #28 area for a long time. Let's assume BB can't trade down from 17 or up from 28 and that chances are Wilkerson won't make it to #28. Think BB would take him at 17 ignoring the outcry of -- REACH? I think this is a scenario often ignored and worthy of considering. And of course this applies to every round.

Seneschal2 said:

Let's just focus on the DEs for a moment and leave Quinn aside. Why do most fans assume Belichick has Watt and Jordan ranked higher than Heyward and Wikerson? Haven't we seen him disregard consensus ranked players and select players who fit the team better, or represent better value?

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Of course, but given that no one but the Patriots front office knows what their board looks like we just have to go off of the consensus opinion of the draft gurus and what our experience picking up the pieces of BB drafts tell us.

Personally I actually think that Heyward especially looks the part of a Patriots type 34 DE more that either Watt or Jordan, but that doesn't necessarily mean that he'd bring more overall value.

Watt/Jordan seem like they would bring more of a presence on passing downs as interior rushers (maybe even Jordan standing up a bit), and given the way our defense has performed the last couple seasons I think someone who can impact the passing game should be more highly rated.

As for Wilkerson I still believe that low 20s is where he should go, and I doubt that the Patriots couldn't find a willing trade partner for the 17th pick from the early to mid 20s who might want a shot at one of the more 4-3 type DEs or some other talented player who drops but doesn't fit in NE.

mgteich said:

Belichick may not even be tempted to draft at 17, favoring to trade down. Is Heyward worth 17? Is Heyward worth 17? A trade down (to say 24) with compendation including a 2012 pick seems most likely. Most have one or both available at 28, or certainly at 24.

I think that Belichick would prefer 24, 28, 33 and 2012 pick instead of the present picks. This allows plently of flexibility later in the round.

Yes, we could trade up. If Belichick sees the value, of course he'll trade up. I just am preparing for the strong possiblity that Watt, Jordan and Quinn will be unreachable for reasonable value. BTW, I'm not sure that we'd even trade up to 12 or 13 for Quinn. Trade opportunities (up and down) should be available. Lots of teams may be wanting to draft a QB at 17.

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If this is what ends up being the case, and it is entirely possible, I think I'd like to see the following happen.

Trade 17 and 92 for 24 and 56.

Take Gabe Carimi with 24 to anchor the right half of the OLine. Anger, unrest, and mass suicides will surely follow because WTF TEHY DIDNT GET PASS RUSHOR!!1!1!!

Patriots are sitting on 28, 33, 56, 74

Trade 28 to San Diego for 50 and 61. The fans begin rioting and burning Robert Kraft and Bill Bellichick in effergy. Also, depending on the progress of a new CBA, if the draft for 2012 is unclear in terms of will it actually happen and how is it going to be set up, I don't see him trading for picks in 2012. The Brady v NFL suit can really **** the draft up if the courts side with Brady. Otherwise, 50 gets moved for a 2012 1st rounder.

Pats are sitting on 33, 50, 56, 60, 61, 74

Cameron Heyward at 33

Stefen Wisniewski at 50

Danny Watkins at 56

Martez Wilson at 60

Ras-I Dowling at 61

Allen Bailey at 74

I for one hope Quinn is gone by pick 5 or 6, so we dont even have to think about drafting that kid. He's got the physical skills, apparently. Its the rest Id worry about.

mgteich said:

Belichick may not even be tempted to draft at 17, favoring to trade down. Is Heyward worth 17? Is Heyward worth 17? A trade down (to say 24) with compendation including a 2012 pick seems most likely. Most have one or both available at 28, or certainly at 24.

I think that Belichick would prefer 24, 28, 33 and 2012 pick instead of the present picks. This allows plently of flexibility later in the round.

Yes, we could trade up. If Belichick sees the value, of course he'll trade up. I just am preparing for the strong possiblity that Watt, Jordan and Quinn will be unreachable for reasonable value. BTW, I'm not sure that we'd even trade up to 12 or 13 for Quinn. Trade opportunities (up and down) should be available. Lots of teams may be wanting to draft a QB at 17.

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Very possible. Watts, Jordan, Quinn or trade down. Sounds right to me.

mgteich said:

Belichick may not even be tempted to draft at 17, favoring to trade down. Is Heyward worth 17? Is Heyward worth 17? A trade down (to say 24) with compendation including a 2012 pick seems most likely. Most have one or both available at 28, or certainly at 24.

I think that Belichick would prefer 24, 28, 33 and 2012 pick instead of the present picks. This allows plently of flexibility later in the round.

Yes, we could trade up. If Belichick sees the value, of course he'll trade up. I just am preparing for the strong possiblity that Watt, Jordan and Quinn will be unreachable for reasonable value. BTW, I'm not sure that we'd even trade up to 12 or 13 for Quinn. Trade opportunities (up and down) should be available. Lots of teams may be wanting to draft a QB at 17.

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I'm not really sure that "Is Heyward worth #17?" is really the appropriate question. Sure, Heyward is "ranked" the 25th to 35th "best player" in this class. And I can understand how that would lead a lot of folks to believe he'd still be available after trading down to #24 or even at #28 or #33.

However, he's probably also at least the 4th-5th best 34 DE, including Wilkerson in there somewhere. There are five 3-4 teams picking in the top 16 (plus two teams that play "hybrids"), three more picking between #17 and #28 (including SDG at #18), and three more between #28 and #33. Plus, at least a couple of these "best 3-4 DEs" could also be very attractive as DTs in 4-3 schemes. That's eleven (or more!) chances in 26 picks for all the top four or five 34 DEs to be gone.

So, to me the appropriate question is, "Would either Heyward or Wilkerson actually last until #24, 28 or 33 in the REAL draft?" A follow-up might be, "Why would we give SDG the first crack at whatever 34 DEs remain at #17 by trading down behind them?"

1) If Heyward is as good a prospect as Warren, we might very well snap him up at 17. I tend to agree with you, and would certainly be happy with the choice of Heyward at 17.

2) I'm reasonably sure that McCourty was worth drafting at #22 last year. Yet, we waited because Belichick though that he could get McCourty at 26. We may or may not be in a similar situation this year. In any case, someone may provide solid value in a trade.

3) There is a side issue here, and his name is Wilkerson. As the weeks progress, it is not even clear that he is a value at 28. In the end, that won't matter. If Belichick likes Heyward, then he should be part of our DL next year.

BelichickFan said:

A trade down is very possible there but I see no reason Heyward isn't worth #17. We took Ty Warren 13th and I think Heyward is as good a prospect as Warren was at that time. Unless Bill's value of DL has diminished since then I can't make a good argument why Heyward wouldn't be a solid value at #17 unless they think he can't add the 10-15 pounds that he could use.

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Let's see. I don't expect Carimi, Heyward or Watkins to be available when you want to draft them.

the wrothbroughterer said:

If this is what ends up being the case, and it is entirely possible, I think I'd like to see the following happen.

Trade 17 and 92 for 24 and 56.

Take Gabe Carimi with 24 to anchor the right half of the OLine. Anger, unrest, and mass suicides will surely follow because WTF TEHY DIDNT GET PASS RUSHOR!!1!1!!

Patriots are sitting on 28, 33, 56, 74

Trade 28 to San Diego for 50 and 61. The fans begin rioting and burning Robert Kraft and Bill Bellichick in effergy. Also, depending on the progress of a new CBA, if the draft for 2012 is unclear in terms of will it actually happen and how is it going to be set up, I don't see him trading for picks in 2012. The Brady v NFL suit can really **** the draft up if the courts side with Brady. Otherwise, 50 gets moved for a 2012 1st rounder.

Pats are sitting on 33, 50, 56, 60, 61, 74

Cameron Heyward at 33

Stefen Wisniewski at 50

Danny Watkins at 56

Martez Wilson at 60

Ras-I Dowling at 61

Allen Bailey at 74

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the wrothbroughterer said:

If this is what ends up being the case, and it is entirely possible, I think I'd like to see the following happen.

Trade 17 and 92 for 24 and 56.

Take Gabe Carimi with 24 to anchor the right half of the OLine. Anger, unrest, and mass suicides will surely follow because WTF TEHY DIDNT GET PASS RUSHOR!!1!1!!

Patriots are sitting on 28, 33, 56, 74

Trade 28 to San Diego for 50 and 61. The fans begin rioting and burning Robert Kraft and Bill Bellichick in effergy. Also, depending on the progress of a new CBA, if the draft for 2012 is unclear in terms of will it actually happen and how is it going to be set up, I don't see him trading for picks in 2012. The Brady v NFL suit can really **** the draft up if the courts side with Brady. Otherwise, 50 gets moved for a 2012 1st rounder.

Pats are sitting on 33, 50, 56, 60, 61, 74

Cameron Heyward at 33

Stefen Wisniewski at 50

Danny Watkins at 56

Martez Wilson at 60

Ras-I Dowling at 61

Allen Bailey at 74

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I like the fact that Chargers have (2) second round picks and (2) third round picks because they make an ideal trading partner for the 28th pick. Maybe they take Jon Baldwin or Christian Ballard, but no matter who they take, the Patriots would stand to gain additional picks in the later rounds.

It isn't as if the Patriots need more picks, but when given more picks, Belichick seems to take more risks than he would take had his picks been limited to a few.

24 - Gabe Carimi: I like the idea of taking Carimi early and answering the question of Offensive Tackle. I think Nate Solder will fall in the first round and the vacuum will be filled with either Carimi or Castonzo. Moving from 17 to 24 could be risky.

33 - Cameron Heyward: Heyward could be the steal of the draft and with additional picks in the following rounds, Belichick can take roll the dice with little consequence.

50 - Danny Watkins: Belichick doesn't seem to value players the way they are laid out by ESPN or CBS Sportsline. If he did, he probably wouldn't had taken Logan Mankins and Sebastian Vollmer when he did.

56 - Johnny Patrick: Belichick is infatuated with selecting DBs and maybe Patrick is his guy, since Ras-I Dowling is consistently hobbled by his hamstring.

- At some point, I could see Belichick taking Allen Bailey. Bailey could be one of those "projects" that Belichick likes to take in the second or third round, in the hopes of developing.

- Martez Wilson is a prospect I've liked for his size, so I wouldn't mind having him on the team.

- Eventually the Pats will have to look toward a WR. If they do, I hope they take a good look at Cecil Shorts and Jeff Maehl. Neither could contribute in year one, but hopefully they could develop into solid contributors.

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IMO the three impact defensive players are Fairley, Quinn and Peterson. Dareus will be good but teams won't scheme around him, then there are a bunch of really good players that could be solid starters or provide quality depth.

If the Patriots can trade up for one of these players (or AJ Green) I would be stoked, otherwise trade back and add 3-4 players in picks 25-50.

If BB trades down instead of up or staying pat with his first 2 picks I'll be surprized.....trading #33 makes sense but the Pats don't need a bunch more rookies or PS development players that will be picked off waivers by other teams as soon as the final cutdowns come.....a veteran RB other than Taylor or Morris would be nice also. JMHO

crowell33 said:

Very possible. Watts, Jordan, Quinn or trade down. Sounds right to me.

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If BB thinks the last of those 3 to go is a lot better than whomever he likes best of Wilkerson, Heyward, et al., I presume that guy will indeed go to us, even if a trade up is needed.

Otherwise, I think he'd go for the best of the rest, but I'm not as sure that trading down would be a safe way to go get him. BB's 4th choice may rise on the boards.