Rank them 1 to 12 - Most likely to win Super Bowl XLV

aluminum seats said:

First thing to do is determine what teams actually have a shot--surprised you put the Jets 4th....their defense isn't remotely what it was like last year. At all.

Teams that have a legitimate chance to win it:

Pats, Atlanta, New Orleans, Philadelphia, Green Bay, Indianapolis.

Actually, just typed that out, but looking at it, that's the order I'd go too. Those 5 teams have a shot, in that order.

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The reason I put them 4th is because those players are brainwashed by Ryan into actually thinking they can win it all and if it gets in heir heads enough they might start playing like they did in last years postseason

I can't totally dismiss them although I loathe the team,they were a different team in the playoffs last year even though that defense is not as good they can still be a team to deal with,Sanchez can look horrid one week and solid the next.

If the Jets had played 4 quarters in last years AFCCG,the Jets would have been in the SB but they came out of the locker room not ready for Peyton's arsenal.

Putting careful thought into this, here's what I come up with. Note: this isn't my ranking of the best teams 1-12, as I think a bunch of the AFC teams could straight-up beat several of the NFC teams I have ahead of them... but I just don't see them coming into and winning in Foxboro and thus even having a chance to "win the Superbowl", as the thread asks.

1. Pats
2. Saints
3. Packers
4. Falcons
5. Eagles
6. Colts
7. Ravens
8. Steelers
9. Bears
10. Jets
11. Chiefs
12. Seahawks

1 N.E
2 Balt
3 N.O.
4. G.B.
5 Indy
6 Pitt
7 Atl
8 NYJ
9 Phil
10 Chi
11 K.C.
12 Sea

The Saints road to Dallas just hit a speed bump.

New Orleans Saints' Chris Ivory faces new reality | NOLA.com

Chris Ivory hobbled past racks of New Orleans Saints memorabilia from a back entrance, with a thick black boot on his left foot. On Tuesday afternoon, the Saints placed the 6-foot, 222-pound rookie running back on the injured reserve list, ending his season.

Ivory's absence weakens an already shaky Saints rushing attack. He led the team with 716 yards on 137 carries and scored five touchdowns. He had a season-high 158 yards on 15 carries in a 31-6 victory over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on Oct. 17. He also surpassed 100 yards when he ran for 117 on 15 carries in a 34-30 victory over the Cincinnati Bengals on Dec. 5.

Ivory was sidelined last Sunday during a 23-13 loss to Tampa Bay at the Superdome. He ran for 33 yards on seven carries before leaving the game in the second quarter after a short rush. Running back Pierre Thomas missed the regular-season finale after aggravating his left ankle injury last week in practice.

That leaves veterans Reggie Bush (36 carries, 150 yards) and Julius Jones (48 carries, 193 yards) and the just-signed Wynn as the only healthy running backs. The Saints will release their first injury report today after they practice in preparation for Saturday's wild-card game at NFC West champion Seattle (7-9).

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Using the Sagarin pure points ranking system, the best single predictor I know of for future games, once a good sample size (e.g. 16 games) has been reached:

1) Patriots
2) Packers
3) Steelers
4) Ravens
5) Falcons
6) Jets
7) Eagles
8) Bears
9) Colts
10) Saints
11) Chiefs
12) Seahawks


Using the same system, here are the NFL wildcard lines.

USATODAY.com

Colts: 23.01 + 2.11 (home field) = 25.12
Jets: 25.19
Result: pick ‘em

Chiefs: 19.06 + 2.11 (home field) = 21.17
Ravens: 26.30
Result: Ravens favored by 5

Seahawks: 11.55 + 2.11 (home field) = 13.66
Saints: 22.89
Result: Saints favored by 9

Eagles: 23.91 + 2.11 (home field) = 26.02
Packers: 30.64
Result: Packers favored by 4.5

PATRIOTSFANINPA said:

Rank the teams in order of how you think in terms of chances to win Super Bowl XLV

1- is most likely
12- is least likely

Here's my assessment....

1- New England - they haven't showed signs of slowing down,must expect more of the same

2- Atlanta - Matt Ryan is forming into an elite QB very quickly

3- New Orleans - Saints are ready to defend the title

4- NY Jets - The defense is championship caliber,weak link is Sanchez

5- Baltimore - Has been close but hasn't been able to get there

6- Pittsburgh - No team is more dangerous on defense than the Steelers,weak link is that putrid OL

7- Philadelphia - That offense has a boatload of weapons but average on defense

8- Green Bay - Aaron Rodgers has battled well thru a tough injury plagued season and that defense is solid

9- Indianapolis - Manning is always a threat,no matter who is at WR

10- Kansas City - I see the 2010 Cinderella team falling quickly to Baltimore in the WC round

11- Chicago - Not good enough at QB to contend for a title

12- Seattle - 7-9 team with Charlie Whitehurst at QB have no reason to be in the playoffs,only because their division is putrid

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The Jets' defense is championship caliber? That means the Pats have a championship caliber offense and defense then since they only gave up 9 more points than the Jets did this season. The Jets defense is average. They have no pass rush (it may be worse than the Pats) and are very suseptable to passes up the middle. Their run defense is good. Cromartie and Revis have trouble covering small shifty route running receivers and they will have to come to New England in the division round so they cannot cover both Welker and Branch.

Here is my ranking:

1.) New England - Best team in the league right now.
2.) Packers - They may be peaking at the right time. When Rodgers is in, they dominate teams in the last month or two.
3.) Steelers - Underestimated team as long as Polamalu is healthy
4.) Falcons - Best team in the NFC but sliding a bit
5.) Saints - Can beat Atlanta in Atlanta
6.) Baltimore - With Ray Rice coming on and Ed Reed playing otherworldly, they can do damage
7.) Bears - As long as Cutler doesn't turn over the ball (not a given), they have a shot
8.) Indy - Another team peaking and getting healthier at the right time
9.) Philly - Vick is injured and has shown some weaknesses to be exploited
10.) Chiefs - Solid on both sides of the ball, but hasn't been tested
11.) Jets - I don't think they get by Indy, but the Pats play match up problems for their defense and their offense isn't good enough to play catch up. They cannot avoid playing the Pats in the playoffs. I think they have a shot to survive Wild Card weekend, but no chance of getting past the division round.
12.) Seattle - Just pumped and jacked to be there. Easily an one and done team.

1 - New England - They will win it

2 - Baltimore - If it weren't for the Pats, they would be my favorite. Well rounded team.

3- Green Bay - Aaron Rodgers is a superstar coming of age, better seeding would make it easier but I think they can do it.

4- Pittsburgh - They don't impress me but somehow they are always up there.

5- Atlanta - Good but I just don't think it's their year. Matt Ryan needs 1 more year.

6- New Orleans - Dangerous but Brees is too careless with the ball this year.

7- Philadelphia - Out in the first round, cancel Vick's HOF Induction Ceremony.

8- Indianapolis - Sorry Peyton, the rest of your team sucks.

9- NY Jets - Worse defense than last year, Sanchez still not a big time QB.

10- Kansas City - Thanks for playing

11- Chicago - Jay Cutler sucks, one and done.

12- Seattle - Yeah right

my ranking

NE
ATL
BAL
NO
PIT
IND
NYJ
GB
CHI
PHI
KC
SEA

the single best ranking is the actual Futures odds

Odds To Win The Super Bowl
SAT 1/8 WILL THE PATRIOTS WIN THE SUPER BOWL?
01:30 PM 4103 Yes +178
4104 No -198
SAT 1/8 WILL THE JETS WIN THE SUPER BOWL?
01:30 PM 4105 Yes +2850
4106 No -4350
SAT 1/8 WILL THE STEELERS WIN THE SUPER BOWL?
01:30 PM 4107 Yes +575
4108 No -708
SAT 1/8 WILL THE RAVENS WIN THE SUPER BOWL?
01:30 PM 4109 Yes +1600
4110 No -2300
SAT 1/8 WILL THE CHIEFS WIN THE SUPER BOWL?
01:30 PM 4113 Yes +6300
4114 No -8800
SAT 1/8 WILL THE COLTS WIN THE SUPER BOWL?
01:30 PM 4115 Yes +2213
4116 No -3213
SAT 1/8 WILL THE FALCONS WIN THE SUPER BOWL?
01:30 PM 4119 Yes +590
4120 No -730
SAT 1/8 WILL THE EAGLES WIN THE SUPER BOWL?
01:30 PM 4121 Yes +1179
4122 No -1679
SAT 1/8 WILL THE SAINTS WIN THE SUPER BOWL?
01:30 PM 4125 Yes +850
4126 No -1250
SAT 1/8 WILL THE BEARS WIN THE SUPER BOWL?
01:30 PM 4127 Yes +1000
4128 No -1500
SAT 1/8 WILL THE PACKERS WIN THE SUPER BOWL?
01:30 PM 4129 Yes +1640
4130 No -2340
SAT 1/8 WILL THE SEAHAWKS WIN THE SUPER BOWL?
01:30 PM 4133 Yes +20968
4134 No -34968

Palm Beach Pats Fan said:

Using the same system, here are the NFL wildcard lines.

USATODAY.com

Colts: 23.01 + 2.11 (home field) = 25.12
Jets: 25.19
Result: pick ‘em

Chiefs: 19.06 + 2.11 (home field) = 21.17
Ravens: 26.30
Result: Ravens favored by 5

Seahawks: 11.55 + 2.11 (home field) = 13.66
Saints: 22.89
Result: Saints favored by 9

Eagles: 23.91 + 2.11 (home field) = 26.02
Packers: 30.64
Result: Packers favored by 4.5

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For a system that's trying to be very in-depth, I think it's pretty dumb that every home team gets the same number of points for such. That too should be weighted by numerous variables, including how each team and their opponent plays at home/on the road.

CHFF: 12 NFL Playoff Contenders

CHFF: 12 NFL Playoff Contenders

Super Bowl XLV hopefuls and the stats that define them - Kerry J. Byrne - SI.com

Re: CHFF: 12 NFL Playoff Contenders

Nice to see these stats:

Here's the performance of QBs against New England's defense through 10 games:
• 275 of 396, 69.4%, 3,002 yards, 7.58 YPA, 20 TDs, 13 INTs, 94.7 rating

But look again. Here's the performance of QBs against New England's defense in the past six games:
• 114 of 216, 52.8%, 1,343 yards, 6.2 YPA, 5 TDs, 12 INTs, 56.5 rating
Wow. What a difference.

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Remember back early on when we saw the big plays amid the big yardage and said "imagine when this D gets some experience?" There you go. Only caveat is I wish it went back to show the last 8 games, to include Pitt and Indy. Still, good stuff.

Re: CHFF: 12 NFL Playoff Contenders

Nice article, interesting about Green Bay. What's missing over there? Is it the coach?

Here's how I rank the teams in order of strength:

1- New England
2- Green Bay
3- New Orleans
4- Baltimore
5- Pittsburgh
6- Atlanta
7- Indianapolis
8- Philadelphia
9- New Jersey
10- Chicago
11- Kansas City
12- Seattle


Here's how I rank their chances to win it all:

1- New England
2- Baltimore
3- New Orleans
4- Atlanta
5- Green Bay
6- Pittsburgh
7- Indianapolis
8- Philadelphia
9- Chicago
10- Kansas City
11- New Jersey
12- Seattle

Re: CHFF: 12 NFL Playoff Contenders

pheenix11 said:

Nice article, interesting about Green Bay. What's missing over there?

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Alot of injuries.

Green Bay Packers Roster at NFL.com

There's no way the Jets will win 4 games in a row. They were lucky to even make it to the playoffs.

Pats305 said:

There's no way the Jets will win 4 games in a row. They were lucky to even make it to the playoffs.

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Please explain how it was lucky this year. I understand last year...but please explain to a Jets fan how the Jets are lucky to make it to the playoffs this year when there are 5 playoff teams with worse records than the Jets.

If you want to say that they aren't as good as NE....fine. No argument with that after 45-3. But c'mon...not deserving to be in the playoffs at all is a little too much. You may hate the Jets...but give em' their due.

Haley said:

1 - New England: :rocker:
2 - Green Bay: My dark horse, but with their tough D I think they have it in them to beat both Atlanta and Chicago
3 - Pittsburgh: Like GB, gotta respect that D. Plus they are getting more healthy than they have been in a while
4 - Chicago: Tough team to ever count out with Urlacher, Peppers and Cutler.
5 - Baltimore: Need to get past the Steelers, not sure they can
6 - Atlanta: I think Atlanta loses to Green Bay when the gloves come off in the playoffs
7 - New Orleans: They are too inconsistent to make it imo
8 - Indianapolis: *choooooke* against the Steelers
9 - Philadelphia: Green Bay eats their lunch
10- NY Jets: Dolts 1 and done 'em
11- Kansas City: sorry matty
12- Seattle: comment not required here, haha

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Strangely enough, my list is about the same, except that I have KC a little higher with NY Jets at 11 and Seattle at 12... I think this is a pretty good assessment... I think it will be a re-match with the Packers this SB.... Brady will triumph over Rodgers in that finale, IMO

eifmp said:

Please explain how it was lucky this year. I understand last year...but please explain to a Jets fan how the Jets are lucky to make it to the playoffs this year when there are 5 playoff teams with worse records than the Jets.

If you want to say that they aren't as good as NE....fine. No argument with that after 45-3. But c'mon...not deserving to be in the playoffs at all is a little too much. You may hate the Jets...but give em' their due.

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How many games did you guys won in OT or by 3-6 points?

OT wins:
@Lions: 23-20
@Browns: 26-20

3-6 points wins:
@Broncos: 24-20
vs Texans: 30-27
@Steelers: 22-17

That's 5 W's by one position. If the Jets lost those 5 games their record would be of 6-10 and there would be no Playoffs for you guys.

I'm basing this on likelihood that they win if they get there, not likelihood of getting there in the first place.

1. New England Patriots
2. Pittsburgh Steelers
3. Philadelphia Eagles
4. Baltimore Ravens
5. Atlanta Falcons
6. Green Bay Packers
7. New Orleans Saints
8. Indianapolis Colts
9. Kansas City Chiefs
10. Chicago Bears
11. New York Jets
12. Seattle Seahawks