Honest evaluation of the Pats D

We play conservative defense when we have the lead, prevent big plays and allow short passes. Problem I've seen come up though is our tackling at times when playing prevent haven't been that great and the short passes turn into longer gains.

I've seen our defense play aggressive and execute it well (first three quarters against PIT, comeback against BALT, first half against CIncy, etc.) But it always has been BB's M.O. to play bend but don't break when we have leads.

Frustrating, yes. But effective.

9-2.

D-Money said:

I agree.They have to disguise some blitzes out there if they cant get pressure with the d-line.Cant let Sanchez have all this time.

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We all know that 3rd-long, that the Jets will blitz.

Doesnt a screen, defeat a blitz?

hallfamebrady said:

I am reading some of the posts about the Patriots defense and I think I am reading about a reincarnation the 1985 Bears. Felger is getting slammed for being critical about their play and people are comparing McCourty and Chung to Law and Milloy.

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No, Felger was being slammed for being a troll. It's one thing to question the defense. It's another to take a valid question and expand it to ridiculous proportions.

Yes, the defense has been inconsistent. But it can't stop anyone? Really? Ask Peyton Manning about that. Or Big Ben. Ask the Ravens when we shut them out throughout the 4th quarter and OT to preserve the win for us.

The Pats have been unable to close out games in the second half when teams move primarily to the pass. The Patriots have played from ahead in seven of the nine games they have won this season. In almost every case, the opponents were trying to balance the run and the pass which failed to work in the first half. The Colts even tried to run the ball in the first half despite their lack of success. The Pats were able to take leads during these games. Once these teams were forced into primarily a passing offense, almost every single one of these teams was able to move the ball at will making several of these games close. As a result, the Pats let several of these teams back in the game despite having healthy leads. The Buffalo, SD, Minnesota, Pittsburgh, and Indy games are prime examples. I wonder why opposing teams have insisted running the ball against the Pats in the first half despite these trends.

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It's odd to hear you claim that the Pats defense hasn't been able to close out an opponent when they go to the pass considering we just did it in our last game. It wasn't so long ago that you should have forgotten.

The Lions in the first half ran 16 times, threw 22 times, and scored 17 points. In the second half, the Lions ran only 5 times, threw 24 times, yet only scored 7 points.

As for your observation about the Colts wasting their time with the run in the first half and abandoning it in the second half, leading to their comeback, that is also totally wrong.

The Colts ran 10 times and threw 26 passes in the first half for 14 points. They ran 10 times and threw 26 passes in the second half for 14 points. In fact, they ran for 62 of their 71 total yards in the second half, including a big run for 36 yards to help set up one of their touchdowns, so the run game was hardly a hindrance in the second half, nor was it abandoned as you claimed.

As for the Steelers game, one could argue that they were pass-heavy throughout the game. This is a team that runs 49% of the time, but even in the first half, they ran only 10 times out of 33 plays, or 30%. That disparity would grow in the second half, and they ran less than 23% of the time during the game.

Even when they went almost exclusively-pass on their last two drives of the first half, they didn't produce much: 1 run attempt, 2 for 7 passing for 31 yards.

But Ben put up some big numbers late in the 4th with the no-huddle, which made me wonder if perhaps the problem was our defense against the no-huddle. But the no huddle was largely ineffective in the first two quarters, 2 for 4 for 11 yards. They used it once to start their first 4th quarter drive, which was picked off by Sanders, so the defense either got tired or bored. Either way, they shut down a pass-heavy team for 3 quarters by any way you want to measure it.

Minny ran 20 times and passed 13 in the first half and scored 7 points, then ran 8 times and passed 35 times in the second half and only scored 4 more points (field goal, 2-point conversion on the touchdown). Again, very pass-heavy in the second half without destroying the defense.

In their two come from behind winning efforts (Baltimore and Detroit), the trend of giving up significant passing yards was still present. The Ravens continued to run the ball despite their lack of success and their success passing the ball. The Ravens ran the ball 34 times for 99 yards and the Ravens were 27 / 34 for 278 in the air. I truly believe the Pats would have lost this game if the Ravens game plan called for more passing.

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The Ravens averaged 7.3 yards per pass for the game, 8 yards per attempt in the first half. But don't forget how our defense performed in the 4th quarter and OT when the game was on the line. Flacco went 7 for 11 for only 59 yards, 5.4 YPA, with 4 of those completions being for 5 yards or less. Flacco was having a lot more trouble with the D in the second half.

The Pats rushing defense has been very good to excellent all season. The D has only allowed one 100 yard rusher. In addition, the defensive stats show the Pats two worst days against the run are also their only two losses of the season. Although rushing against stats are often an indicator of a loss, the Pats poor pass defense was the true cause of the loss against the Jets. The Pats were leading the Jets game up until halftime. The Jets then decided to open up their offense and pass the ball in the direction of Darius Butler. The run opened up when the Pats over compensated to stop the pass. The Pats got man handled against Cleveland and the defense had a complete meltdown that day. However, the run D has been a strength all season.

Based on this information, I have the following questions comments.

What is going to happen if an opposing team game plans an offense completely based on the pass against the Pats?

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Odd that we're questioning the pass defense when you just pointed out that we got destroyed in the run defense in our two losses.

Anyways, the Steelers and Colts both had a pass-heavy game plan which struggled for 3 quarters. There were obviously big plays in the 4th quarter, but I think we've shown we can make the plays. We just need to make them. There were several dumb penalties against the Steelers, while we made some big mistakes against the Colts in the 4th that we hadn't earlier in the game.

If Chung, McCourty, and Merriweather are all average to above average players, how do we explain the success teams are having with the pass against the pass? Are these players making individual great individual plays while playing below average the rest of the game? Are Butler / Arrington that bad?

I am interested in comments.

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This defense is young and incredibly inconsistent. It gave up 3 points to Big Ben through 3 quarters, and then 23 in the last one.

It's been this way since week 1, when we held Palmer to 130 yards passing in the first half, and 215 in the second. Ocho and T.O. were held in check with 7 catches for 53 yards in the first half, and 19 catches for 159 yards in the second half.

We're very good, and then very bad, and then very good. It's not consistent mediocrity. It's extreme levels of both.

But the hope is that the kids will progress, develop more consistency, and the pass defense will stabilize.

Every Defense has a weakness.

Belichick has decided that the youth and inexperience of the secondary Will inevitably, create mistakes. He has a very young pass rush that could be exploited in a normal Defense. So he has elected to emphasize certain things, first. Use his Offense, as a defensive weapon. For the Defense:

1) Stop the Run, first and foremost, Stop the Run.

2) Don't play much man-to-man until the secondary is more experienced.

3) Play deep zones and invite short completions to the center of the field where deep help from several directions can recover from mistakes.

4) This will make the Pass rush appear to be poorer then it really is. That will further invite the opposition to more short passing, which is what the spider wants the fly to do.

5) Measure the pass rush by pressure, not sacks. Short pass completions make sacks difficult to get.

6) Bend don't Break. Make them earn every score with lots of plays. This will enlist their Offense to burn clock, for us.

7) Out execute them. Their own errors will also kill drives.

8) Beat them with your own slow but steady drives, and outscore them.

9) When this play becomes automatic and error free, Than:

10a) Eventually deepen the drops by the LBs;

10b) Eventually shorten the drops by the Safeties.

11) That will squeeze and complete the development of the Defense.

pblmax99 said:

Key for Pats is stopping Jets run D...I saw some huge holes on Turkey day for the Lions...Jets will run until you can stop it....

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I have to respectfully disagree. The Pats D has been effective in stopping the run pretty much all season with the exception of the Cleveland game. I would pass all day if I was the Jets. The Pats contained Ray Rice and Adrian Peterson fairly well

@AndyJohnson - the D has been a liability all season in that the Pats only mechanism to stop teams in turnovers. Even in the Detroit game, the Pats were unable to force the Lions into punting situations. Two drives ended with INT's and once drive ended with a missed FG. The Pats defense never truly held the Lions offense. The same is even true in the Miami game. Miami only punted once in that game.

Do I want my team defense to force turn overs? Absolutely. However, having a defense rely on forcing turnovers to stop a team is unsustainable. If you look at stats like the number of punts by the opposing team, the opposing team's third down conversion, and passing yards in the second half, you will see an alarming trend.

convertedpatsfan said:

No, Felger was being slammed for being a troll. It's one thing to question the defense. It's another to take a valid question and expand it to ridiculous proportions.

Yes, the defense has been inconsistent. But it can't stop anyone? Really? Ask Peyton Manning about that. Or Big Ben. Ask the Ravens when we shut them out throughout the 4th quarter and OT to preserve the win for us.



It's odd to hear you claim that the Pats defense hasn't been able to close out an opponent when they go to the pass considering we just did it in our last game. It wasn't so long ago that you should have forgotten.

The Lions in the first half ran 16 times, threw 22 times, and scored 17 points. In the second half, the Lions ran only 5 times, threw 24 times, yet only scored 7 points.

As for your observation about the Colts wasting their time with the run in the first half and abandoning it in the second half, leading to their comeback, that is also totally wrong.

The Colts ran 10 times and threw 26 passes in the first half for 14 points. They ran 10 times and threw 26 passes in the second half for 14 points. In fact, they ran for 62 of their 71 total yards in the second half, including a big run for 36 yards to help set up one of their touchdowns, so the run game was hardly a hindrance in the second half, nor was it abandoned as you claimed.

As for the Steelers game, one could argue that they were pass-heavy throughout the game. This is a team that runs 49% of the time, but even in the first half, they ran only 10 times out of 33 plays, or 30%. That disparity would grow in the second half, and they ran less than 23% of the time during the game.

Even when they went almost exclusively-pass on their last two drives of the first half, they didn't produce much: 1 run attempt, 2 for 7 passing for 31 yards.

But Ben put up some big numbers late in the 4th with the no-huddle, which made me wonder if perhaps the problem was our defense against the no-huddle. But the no huddle was largely ineffective in the first two quarters, 2 for 4 for 11 yards. They used it once to start their first 4th quarter drive, which was picked off by Sanders, so the defense either got tired or bored. Either way, they shut down a pass-heavy team for 3 quarters by any way you want to measure it.

Minny ran 20 times and passed 13 in the first half and scored 7 points, then ran 8 times and passed 35 times in the second half and only scored 4 more points (field goal, 2-point conversion on the touchdown). Again, very pass-heavy in the second half without destroying the defense.



The Ravens averaged 7.3 yards per pass for the game, 8 yards per attempt in the first half. But don't forget how our defense performed in the 4th quarter and OT when the game was on the line. Flacco went 7 for 11 for only 59 yards, 5.4 YPA, with 4 of those completions being for 5 yards or less. Flacco was having a lot more trouble with the D in the second half.



Odd that we're questioning the pass defense when you just pointed out that we got destroyed in the run defense in our two losses.

Anyways, the Steelers and Colts both had a pass-heavy game plan which struggled for 3 quarters. There were obviously big plays in the 4th quarter, but I think we've shown we can make the plays. We just need to make them. There were several dumb penalties against the Steelers, while we made some big mistakes against the Colts in the 4th that we hadn't earlier in the game.



This defense is young and incredibly inconsistent. It gave up 3 points to Big Ben through 3 quarters, and then 23 in the last one.

It's been this way since week 1, when we held Palmer to 130 yards passing in the first half, and 215 in the second. Ocho and T.O. were held in check with 7 catches for 53 yards in the first half, and 19 catches for 159 yards in the second half.

We're very good, and then very bad, and then very good. It's not consistent mediocrity. It's extreme levels of both.

But the hope is that the kids will progress, develop more consistency, and the pass defense will stabilize.

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Go back and review the Lions game. The Pats only forced the Lions three times, once in the second half. The Pats are only stooping defense via turnovers. Although I love the ball hawking skills of our team, this strategy is unsound for long term success.

Point to consider, the Pats had leads of more than eight points / more than one posession in the second half of the game only to give up points to bring the game with one possession in five games this season (Buffalo, Miami, SD, Minnesota, Indy). The Pittsburgh game and the Cincinnati games saw large leads become less confortable.

hallfamebrady said:

@AndyJohnson - the D has been a liability all season in that the Pats only mechanism to stop teams in turnovers. Even in the Detroit game, the Pats were unable to force the Lions into punting situations. Two drives ended with INT's and once drive ended with a missed FG. The Pats defense never truly held the Lions offense. The same is even true in the Miami game. Miami only punted once in that game.

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Why is forcing a turnover a bad type of a stop? You sound like we owe the other team points when we force a turnover.
How is stopping 2 drives with Ints and another with a missed long FG not truly stopping them? Did they score and I dont know it?
Miami score 14 points.

Do I want my team defense to force turn overs? Absolutely. However, having a defense rely on forcing turnovers to stop a team is unsustainable.

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So incomplete passes are sustainable and Ints are not? What is your position on sacks?Are they phony too?

If you look at stats like the number of punts by the opposing team, the opposing team's third down conversion, and passing yards in the second half, you will see an alarming trend.

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It simply isnt about stats.
If you want to see a trend, look at how many 4th quarter tying or go ahead scores we have allowed this year. That ZERO means a lot more to me than how passing yards the team that was 3 scores behind us got.

hallfamebrady said:

Go back and review the Lions game. The Pats only forced the Lions three times, once in the second half. The Pats are only stooping defense via turnovers. Although I love the ball hawking skills of our team, this strategy is unsound for long term success.

Point to consider, the Pats had leads of more than eight points / more than one posession in the second half of the game only to give up points to bring the game with one possession in five games this season (Buffalo, Miami, SD, Minnesota, Indy). The Pittsburgh game and the Cincinnati games saw large leads become less confortable.

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The Lions had 6 drives in the second half, and we forced two turnovers, stopped them 3 other times, and allowed only one score.

I did make one mistake, and missed 6 rushes in the second half, so the game numbers are:

The Lions in the first half ran 16 times, threw 22 times, and scored 17 points. In the second half, the Lions ran only 11 times, threw 24 times, yet only scored 7 points.

As for the Lions game, perhaps you need to check that second half again. Here are the Lions drives in the second half:

Lions Drive #1:
1 run for 17 yards, 1 pass intercepted.

Lions Drive #2:
4 runs, 5 passes, 1 TD. Very balanced, not indicative of abandoning the run to go pass heavy as you felt teams were doing.

Lions Drive #3:
4 runs, 3 passes, again very balanced, leads the drive to the NE 28 where they miss a FG.

Lions Drive #4:
1 run, 4 passes, now they start going pass heavy and only pick up 9 yards before punting.

Lions Drive #5:
2 passes, first completed for 14, the second an interception.

Lions Drive #6:
12 pass attempts. This drive should have ended in points but they went for it on 4th and goal at the NE 6 due to game circumstances. But this drive only went on because of Calvin Johnson and penalties. Hill went 3 for 9 on the drive for 56 yards, while being sacked twice. The killer was a personal foul for roughing the passer on Chung.

Again, 6 drives in the second half, 2 ending in turnovers, 1 ending in a score. The remaining 3 drives, only two were pass-heavy, and both were stopped. The best drives, in fact, kept incorporating balance by using the running game, not by abandoning the run to switch to pass-heavy attacks as you believed. You're wrong, just like your assumptions about the Colts game and the inability to stop a pass-heavy offensive gameplan.

I think this defense is much better than most on this forum think that it is. The first thing is that they have shown the ability to consistently create turnovers. Secondly, more often than not the defense has made the most critical plays necessary to win football games even if they have been sloppy at other times. And as we all know, they are young and will get better with time.
Again, maybe I'm in the minority, but I think McCourty is a better player at this stage of his career than Ty Law was as a rookie. I think Chung is at least as good as Milloy was as well. I was skeptical about Spikes for the first few weeks, but the guy has proven to me that at minimum, he is very good against the run. Cunningham has shown flashes and could be a budding star. I like Arrington a lot more than others seem to as well. Are there 2 starting corners in the league that play run as well as Arrington and McCourty? I've been pleasantly surprised about Mayo, he's been much better than I thought he could or would be. I love Dane Fletcher as a 3rd down backer, too. In general, this defense tackles well and that is something that is important and gets more important in the playoffs.

On the negative Banta Cain is a horrible football player; I wish they would just cut him. Our LBs in general struggle in coverage with the exception of Fletcher. And as we have all seen, at times the defense has been wildly inconsistent from quarter to quarter, even series to series. But that's what happens when you have so many young players. I'm also concerned about our DL, too many limited/specialty players for my liking (see Mike Wright).

WW

hallfamebrady said:

The Pats have been unable to close out games in the second half when teams move primarily to the pass.

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Not only is their defense statistically one of the worst in the NFL but also in Patriots history. However, this defense is able to do something they haven't been able to do in the last five years. I don't know where you drawing your conclusions from, but they closed out teams in the most critical of situations.

The first game that comes to mind, is Buffalo. Sure, their defense sucked the entire game until they picked off Fitzpatrick to end the game.

The next game was against Miami. Their offense was horrible in the 1st half and I believe it took them 13-16 plays to get a field goal to end the half. In the second half, the special teams provided the spark and the defense took over.

Against Baltimore, there's no comeback without the defense continuing to make Baltimore punt.

In San Diego, they did enough for that game to end at halftime. There never would've been a San Diego comeback had the offense done their job.

In Pittsburgh, the game was out of reach. It was over when Sanders returned the INT for a TD. Everything else was garbage time.

Against Indy, Sanders ended the game with a INT.

Against Detroit, McCourty sparked the comeback and eventual rout with his two INT's.

The rest is to be continued.

This year's defense is doing something we haven't seen in 5 years - close out games. From 05-09, I'd cringe when the game was on the line and the defense was on the field. Say what you want statistically, but I'd take this "worst ranked defense" over last year's "5th ranked defense" any day of the week.

The current defense has shown the ability to create timely turnovers which is a signature line of any great defense.

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This contradicts your last statement. How can you create timely turnovers yet you can't close out games?

While the amount of yardage allowed and percentage of third downs converted is very obviously a concern, I don't think you can remove turnovers from the picture and accurately evaluate the defense.

First of all by doing so it seems as if you place all the blame for a turnover on the opposing offense. It's not fair to the defense to give them some credit for those turnovers; it's not as simple as saying they were all mistakes by the other team.

Second, turnovers are part of the scheme and philosophy of any 'bend don't break' defense; turnovers are not exclusive to aggressive one-gap defenses. A bend don't break defense tries to force the opponent on long drives where they will eventually make a mistake. So pretty much by definition they are going to give up more yardage, give up more third downs - and also force more turnovers.

Again, I'm not saying the yards against and third downs allowed are not a concern - they are. But you can't just look at those two stats while not looking at turnovers.

hallfamebrady said:

Go back and review the Lions game. The Pats only forced the Lions three times, once in the second half. The Pats are only stooping defense via turnovers. Although I love the ball hawking skills of our team, this strategy is unsound for long term success.

Point to consider, the Pats had leads of more than eight points / more than one posession in the second half of the game only to give up points to bring the game with one possession in five games this season (Buffalo, Miami, SD, Minnesota, Indy). The Pittsburgh game and the Cincinnati games saw large leads become less confortable.

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Sorry, but you need to go back and review the lions game. There were plenty of forced throws during the Lions game. Just because they were completed, doesn't mean they weren't forced..

Bringing up the Cincy game is stupid. The defense has changed dramatically since then. As for the Pittsburgh game, the Pats went into a prevent defense, which everyone admits they shouldn't have. But since you missed it, they still won by TWO scores.

Could we just merge these? it's all the same thread.

I think we're all agreed the best team in football is the San Diego Chargers, Best yardage and passing on offense, best yardage on defense.

Hopefully our defense will stop losing us all these games and salvage some dignity from this awful season.