VJCPatriot
Pro Bowl Player
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Ok some of you are going to say this is an unfair comparison. But so what? Deion is basically coming into replace Randy. What can we expect? If we took the time machine back to see Deion's first 3 years, and keep in mind that he is still only 31 now and compare them to Moss' first three years for the Pats I think the comparison should prove interesting.
Branch first 3 years with Pats
Moss first 3 years with Pats
One thing we will notice right away is the difference in durability between these two receivers. Moss didn't miss a single start with the Pats over that 3 year stretch. Branch only played in 37/48 contests. That's still a 77% start rate but not nearly the reliability of Moss.
Let's look at yards per catch over that time period then.
Branch 135 receptions 1746 yards = 12.9 ypc
Moss 250 receptions 3765 yards = 15.1 ypc
It's clear that Moss is more of a big play wide receiver than Branch, but considering that the difference between them is only 2 yards per catch, Branch seems to be a decent alternative source of production on a per catch basis.
What is more concerning is that Moss had nearly double the catches in that time span, suggesting that he was better able to get open for those catches. Some might suggest that a 'Brady bias' is inflating those catch numbers somewhat, but if the guy is netting you over 1,000 yards per season and double digit TDs, it is kind of understandable why Brady went to the well so often in Moss' case.
Speaking of touchdowns:
Branch 9 TDs over 3 years
Moss 47 TDs over 3 years
So as far as hitting paydirt and redzone production, Branch is a definite DOWNGRADE from Moss. The Pats will have to look to their TEs or some other receiver has to step up big time to replace the TD production that Moss offered because Branch isn't going to develop into a TD threat anytime soon when his career suggests otherwise - he's never had a season catching more than 5 TDs.
Where Branch might help out is that he seems more willing to run those short and intermediate routes. He won't stretch the defense but he could make some important catches that will move the chains for the Pats.
Considering all these factors, Branch is a definitive downgrade from Randy Moss in terms of overall explosiveness, catching balls, durability, and catching touchdowns in the RZ.
However perhaps a willing and rejuvenated Branch will better fit the Pats offense in 2010. He's better to have around than a sulking Moss, right?
Maybe, we shall see. Hopefully Brady can rekindle the connection that he used to have with Branch. but looking at the numbers, Branch was still a borderline #1 at best and more suited to a #2 role. Having Moss and Branch would have been even better but we live in an imperfect world. The question now is does BB start Tate or Branch in the #1 slot? Hopefully more of BB's intentions will be revealed in practice. By observing who takes the snaps at the #1 wideout slot we will soon know BB's designs on fitting Branch into the offense.
Stats culled from pro-football-reference:
Branch
Moss
Branch first 3 years with Pats
Code:
2002 23 NWE wr 83 13 7 43 489 11.4 2 49 3.3 37.6 2 0 0 4 0.0 0.0 0.2 489 2 1 5
2003 24 NWE WR 83 15 12 57 803 14.1 3 66 3.8 53.5 1 11 0 11 11.0 0.7 0.1 814 3 0 7
2004 25 NWE WR 83 9 9 35 454 13.0 4 26 3.9 50.4 454 4 1 5Moss first 3 years with Pats
Code:
2007*+ 30 NWE WR 81 16 16 98 1493 15.2 23 65 6.1 93.3 1493 23 0 20
2008 31 NWE WR 81 16 16 69 1008 14.6 11 76 4.3 63.0 2 0 0 2 0.0 0.0 0.1 1008 11 3 11
2009* 32 NWE WR 81 16 16 83 1264 15.2 13 71 5.2 79.0 1264 13 2 13One thing we will notice right away is the difference in durability between these two receivers. Moss didn't miss a single start with the Pats over that 3 year stretch. Branch only played in 37/48 contests. That's still a 77% start rate but not nearly the reliability of Moss.
Let's look at yards per catch over that time period then.
Branch 135 receptions 1746 yards = 12.9 ypc
Moss 250 receptions 3765 yards = 15.1 ypc
It's clear that Moss is more of a big play wide receiver than Branch, but considering that the difference between them is only 2 yards per catch, Branch seems to be a decent alternative source of production on a per catch basis.
What is more concerning is that Moss had nearly double the catches in that time span, suggesting that he was better able to get open for those catches. Some might suggest that a 'Brady bias' is inflating those catch numbers somewhat, but if the guy is netting you over 1,000 yards per season and double digit TDs, it is kind of understandable why Brady went to the well so often in Moss' case.
Speaking of touchdowns:
Branch 9 TDs over 3 years
Moss 47 TDs over 3 years
So as far as hitting paydirt and redzone production, Branch is a definite DOWNGRADE from Moss. The Pats will have to look to their TEs or some other receiver has to step up big time to replace the TD production that Moss offered because Branch isn't going to develop into a TD threat anytime soon when his career suggests otherwise - he's never had a season catching more than 5 TDs.
Where Branch might help out is that he seems more willing to run those short and intermediate routes. He won't stretch the defense but he could make some important catches that will move the chains for the Pats.
Considering all these factors, Branch is a definitive downgrade from Randy Moss in terms of overall explosiveness, catching balls, durability, and catching touchdowns in the RZ.
However perhaps a willing and rejuvenated Branch will better fit the Pats offense in 2010. He's better to have around than a sulking Moss, right?
Maybe, we shall see. Hopefully Brady can rekindle the connection that he used to have with Branch. but looking at the numbers, Branch was still a borderline #1 at best and more suited to a #2 role. Having Moss and Branch would have been even better but we live in an imperfect world. The question now is does BB start Tate or Branch in the #1 slot? Hopefully more of BB's intentions will be revealed in practice. By observing who takes the snaps at the #1 wideout slot we will soon know BB's designs on fitting Branch into the offense.
Stats culled from pro-football-reference:
Branch
Moss
) were looking for that. He'll be yet another security blanket for Brady in the mold of Welker and Hernandez. A Welkandez, if you will.
