Why the Pats will win

Patjew · Sep 29, 2006

Box_O_Rocks said:
We'll be in a 4-2 nickel, using Warren and Green on run downs and Colvin/Vrabel on pass downs...or the 3-2 dime, or the 3-4 with Davis and Alexander inside, or the 1-4 dime with Sey at NT, or the 5-dime with Colvin and Vrabel playing DE, Wilfork at NG, Warren/Sey at DT, and Harrison/Sanders playing shallow half LB/half S...Oh, I'm so confused - curse you Bell Bilechick! :enranged:

I prefer the no down-lineman lineup.

Brady'sButtBoy · Sep 29, 2006

PonyExpress said:
If you had watched the Pitt/Cin game, you would have observed that Pitt dominated that game but gave it away on 3 egregious unforced errors. You would have seen that Palmer came close to serious injury faced with the reckless Pitt blitz. You discredit Samuel and Hobbs (if he plays) by downgrading them compared with Townsend and Taylor. You fail to take into account the pressure that our front 4 in the 4-3 asserted against a more mobile Pennignton, who barely escaped sacks by a variety of dance moves. You fail to calculate the possible absence of C. Henry from the Bengal lineup. You discount the emotional deficit a less experienced team faces after a climactic victory over a hated rival.

Dude, I watched the whole Pitt/Cincy game and you're right, TO's killed Pittsburgh. But you kind of make my point for me after that - Palmer "came close to serious injury" correct! But he still passed for 4 TD's, precisely my point.

You can't seriously be suggesting that Hobbs and Samuel have played to equal Taylor and Townsend. what games have you been watching?

Then you suggest we recreate the pass rush against the Jets which yielded 4 sacks, a bunch of hurries, etc., but still gave up 306yds, 59.6% comps., 2 TD's and only 1 INT on the last desperation play of the game?

Henry might play, so are you discounting the possible impact he could have?

As for the emotion, maybe you're right, the Bengals could let down after a big win. But thumping the last two world champs back to back would seem to be a pretty juice incentive for a young emotional team...

Box_O_Rocks · Sep 29, 2006

Patjew said:
I prefer the no down-lineman lineup.

H'mmm, that would be TBC, Bruschi, Seau, and Colvin up front, Vrabel as a SS again, and six DBs - Chad will still push off.

shirtsleeve · Sep 29, 2006

Box_O_Rocks said:
H'mmm, that would be TBC, Bruschi, Seau, and Colvin up front, Vrabel as a SS again, and six DBs - Chad will still push off.

Oops. typo there! Was gonna say the 5-0 dime package, but you beat me to it just before you cursed bb

PonyExpress · Sep 29, 2006

Brady'sButtBoy said:
Dude, I watched the whole Pitt/Cincy game and you're right, TO's killed Pittsburgh. But you kind of make my point for me after that - Palmer "came close to serious injury" correct! But he still passed for 4 TD's, precisely my point.

You can't seriously be suggesting that Hobbs and Samuel have played to equal Taylor and Townsend. what games have you been watching?

Then you suggest we recreate the pass rush against the Jets which yielded 4 sacks, a bunch of hurries, etc., but still gave up 306yds, 59.6% comps., 2 TD's and only 1 INT on the last desperation play of the game?

Henry might play, so are you discounting the possible impact he could have?

As for the emotion, maybe you're right, the Bengals could let down after a big win. But thumping the last two world champs back to back would seem to be a pretty juice incentive for a young emotional team...

Hobbs and Samuel are as good as Townsend and Taylor. My point about Palmer is he runs serious risk every time he drops back due to his immobility. The fact he survived the Pitt game does not mean he will continue to avoid the big hit. He fumbled three times, and Cinci was fortunate to recover two. In the Jet game, the big receptions to Cotchery and Coles were not against Hobbs and Samuel, but against Scott and Wilson, two safeties.

Box_O_Rocks · Sep 29, 2006

shirtsleeve said:
Oops. typo there! Was gonna say the 5-0 dime package, but you beat me to it just before you cursed bb

That was BellB, no way am I going to risk being ranked alongside IND, PIT, NYJ, MIA, OAK, etc. fans!

fgssand · Sep 29, 2006

The hope for this game and the real hope for a trip to Miami in Feb can be found by the FACT that our lines are far far superior to Cinnci's, as a matter of FACT our offensive and defensive lines stack up quite well versus any team in the NFL.

There is no denying our talent on both sides of the line. I do not understand why this fact has not been brought up by the so called experts.

This game will be won in the trenches (as most games are). Last week against Denver, the Patriots were inside Denver's 35 yard line three times in the first half, yet inexplicably came away with zero points. Had they even managed a field goal, the outcome would have been different IMHO.

On defense: our defensive line will overwhelm Cinnci's young, inexperienced beat up "O" line. Palmer will be forced to dump the ball off quickly or risk tasting the synthetic jungle turf often. Our LB's and "D" backs will be on the lookout for this and we will jump routes forcing, as you will witness, the return of ball disruption.

On offense: The task at hand will be much easier - run the damn ball down their throats except when, having learned from predictability earlier this year, we cross them up and actually pass when they load up expecting run and run in obvious passing situations.

This game will be won by the Patriots, much easier than most think. A final score of 27-17 would not surprise me in the least. I am not kidding people, I have had a good feeling about this game since Monday and even our beat up defensive backfield will not sway me. Look for Rodney Harrison to return Sunday in a big way, he should be ready to finally hit stride. Also, maybe the cast comes off of Tedy B.?

soxpatsbscs · Sep 29, 2006

Hobbs is out. Samuel is mediocre. Replacement will be worse. Bengals score 49.

Marvin_for_prez · Sep 29, 2006

Just some observations from an outsider regarding some of the posts in this thread:
1.) We are not starting a young guard at center. Ghiaciuc is a second year center. He got his first start last year against Jacksonville and played well. He started last week against Pittsburgh and the team gave up 6 sacks, the majority of which came off the edges, not up the middle. Both tackles admitted that the crowd noise was causing them to have to watch the ball being snapped because they couldn't hear the snap count. His protection calls are just fine.
2.) Palmer is NOT "gimpy". That actually made me laugh when I read it. Palmer is fine. As a matter of fact, he is very much underrated as a runner. No, he isn't Vick, but he has no problem scarmbling for yards. The thing is, he makes quick reads, the wideouts get open, and he gets rid of the ball so quickly that he rarely has to even try to scramble. He isn't going to kill a team with his legs, but he has NO problem running for a 1st down in a pinch.
3.) It doesn't matter if Henry plays or not. Chad and T.J. alone are more than a handful for your secondary. Plus, we should actually have Antonio Chatman in the lineup for the first time this year.
4.) The Bengals will not be flat after the win against Pitt. Marvin is one hell of a coach and he knows how dangerous Tom Brady can be. He will have the team focused and ready to play.

I don't expect to roll over New England, but please don't for one second think that you guys will come to Cincinnati and walk out with a win without laying it all on the line. It is entirely possible that you may win, but it certainly will not be an easy task.
It should be a good game. I'm looking forward to it.

P.S. I'm still laughing about that Palmer being gimpy post.

Aqua4Ever04 · Sep 29, 2006

shirtsleeve said:
Cincy has a very potent offense, although the o-line isnt what it was. Palmer is returning to form, but cannot move like he could. Their d is suspect (er...are suspects? ) and survives off of the big play and turnover. They will give up points rather easily. The Class of the AFC??? No way! A good team on the rise? Ok.

I'll take Carson Palmer over any QB in football. Rudi Johnson is very underrated and a top 6 or 7 running back in the league. Chad Johnson is the best WR IMO with Houshmazadeh as one of the top number 2s. Point is, their offense is one of, if not the best offense in football. Like you said though, they will give up points. I still think they can beat any one in NFL and wouldn't pick them as a big under dog against any one. I've got the Bengals in the Super Bowl this year and I'm sticking with the Panthers.

PonyExpress · Sep 29, 2006

If you are laughing about the idea Palmer looks "gimpy" you are whistling past the graveyard. He is nowhere near as mobile as he once was, before the injury, and he clearly favors and is conscious of his knee when pressure is around him. Your center, the second year man, was obviously discombobulated by the variety of blitzes Pittsburgh threw at him in his second career start, and he was manhandled by Casey Hampton, which is nothing to be ashamed of. No independant observer would classify Ghiaciuc's performance last week as anything other than putrid. I do expect his play will improve this week because of last week's experience under fire. No one suggested anything close to an easy win in Cincinnati. It will be a tight, hard fought and bitter contest. As for the "let-down" factor, which you dismiss, a coach can motivate till he's blue in the face, but blood, bone and spirit have their own rhythms after a brutal, emotional victory; that effect is only compounded when the team still hasn't ripened into championship form, which describes your Bengals; there is a gigantic leap between good to great in the NFL. By the way, I hope your team does well against all other opponents, as I enjoy Palmer's brilliance and hope Cincinnati fans enjoy a decade of success after so many frustrating years, as long as it's not at the expense of the Pats. Cheers and good luck.

Box_O_Rocks · Sep 29, 2006

Aqua4Ever04 said:
I'll take Carson Palmer over any QB in football.

Fickle Fin Fan, poor Dante.

PromisedLand · Sep 29, 2006

PonyExpress said:
Cincinnati is an immature team coming off an emotional victory, which some of them celebrated to excess (read C. Henry et. al.). Palmer is immobile compared with his former self. The Cinci O-line has been troubled by protection problems. The Cinci defense has been decimated at LB. The front 4 is competent but not exceptional with Smith and Adams. The secondary, while ballhawking, thrives on jumping routes for the big play, a risky tactic born of confidence in their offense's ability to score 24+ points a gain. They have seen the video of the Pats sub-par performances, and the tendency for a let down will be somewhat magnified by a justifiable lack of respect for a struggling opponent, history be damned. Human nature will dictate that. The crowd will be crazed, raucous, a parade of appreciation pre-game for defeating the hated Steelers. The Bengals will come out on an emotional high, and go quickly for the knockout to throw red meat to the lions in the crowd. They are an emotional, fiery group.

The Pats are going to go with the 4-3 in this game. It is their best way to put pressure on Palmer, the key to the game. They will unleash Seymour, Warren, Green, Wilfork and Wright on the inconsistent Cinci O-line and the wobbly Levi Jones. The intent will be to throw off Palmer's timing from the get go. The lack of LBer speed in the 4-3 for the Pats is not a huge concern because Rudi Johnson is a between the tackles runner with limited ability to get to the corners. Whatever the outcome of the game, the Pats will knock Palmer silly. The Cinci receivers will make their plays... but the Cinci run game will be spotty, and Palmer is going to take his punishment. There is a good chance Chris Henry will be BENCHED for this game by Marvin Lewis as a statement to his team about extracurricular activities. Housyourmama and Johnson will score in this game; They will go for a quick strike early, trying to demoralize the Pats' already shaky Dbackfield for a 7-0 lead. Cinci will score in this game... 20-27 points.

When the Pats are on offense, Cinci will first try to cheat to the line of scrimmage a la the Broncos, but even this will be unsuccessful to stop the running game, because the Bengal LBers don't match the Bronco's all-world trio. Watson will have a break out game in the neighborhood of 7 catches/70 yards due to break downs among the unproven Bengal LBers, and I expect Gabriel to make his mark. IMO Brady will break out of his funk with an additional week acclimating to his receivers and I expect Maroney/Dillon to combine for 160+ yards against the Bengals' porous front 7. Ideally, Gostkowski will reassert himself; Even without him the team will emerge with a satisfying 31-24, 28-24 victory.

A very exellent and plausible analysis. Kudos.:rocker:

AJain · Sep 29, 2006

Box_O_Rocks said:
Fickle Fin Fan, poor Dante.

Palmer is good...but by no means is he better than Brady - and DEFINITELY not Manning. For all we criticize Manning, the guy gets wins for his team. His carrying them right now, and while his teams are not as great as the Patriot dynasty team, they have been very consistent.

Palmer is on par with Big Ben right now (though so far this season Big Ben is lagging). Right now, Carson has the benefit of pro bowl caliber receivers and an RB who is as solid as any in the league but he must show his team can win consistently and go deep in the playoffs before I make he becomes everybody's All-American.

fgssand · Sep 29, 2006

Marvin_for_prez said:
Just some observations from an outsider regarding some of the posts in this thread:
1.) We are not starting a young guard at center. Ghiaciuc is a second year center. He got his first start last year against Jacksonville and played well. He started last week against Pittsburgh and the team gave up 6 sacks, the majority of which came off the edges, not up the middle. Both tackles admitted that the crowd noise was causing them to have to watch the ball being snapped because they couldn't hear the snap count. His protection calls are just fine.
2.) Palmer is NOT "gimpy". That actually made me laugh when I read it. Palmer is fine. As a matter of fact, he is very much underrated as a runner. No, he isn't Vick, but he has no problem scarmbling for yards. The thing is, he makes quick reads, the wideouts get open, and he gets rid of the ball so quickly that he rarely has to even try to scramble. He isn't going to kill a team with his legs, but he has NO problem running for a 1st down in a pinch.
3.) It doesn't matter if Henry plays or not. Chad and T.J. alone are more than a handful for your secondary. Plus, we should actually have Antonio Chatman in the lineup for the first time this year.
4.) The Bengals will not be flat after the win against Pitt. Marvin is one hell of a coach and he knows how dangerous Tom Brady can be. He will have the team focused and ready to play.

I don't expect to roll over New England, but please don't for one second think that you guys will come to Cincinnati and walk out with a win without laying it all on the line. It is entirely possible that you may win, but it certainly will not be an easy task.
It should be a good game. I'm looking forward to it.

P.S. I'm still laughing about that Palmer being gimpy post.

Blah Blah Blah - look, your lines suck and ours are far superior. Your QB is truly a good one, but he is no where near as mobile as he once was and he will feel the heat and play into our hands.

While your team has enjoyed a little success VS the Pats in recent years - our dominant running attack changes that this year.

Yes, our D backs suck and your WR's are awesome - but our rush will neutralize that edge.

You guys are coming off of a very hard fought divisional win - we are coming off an embarrassing loss and we are pissed off.

Pats win going away.....come back Sunday night, we will console you.

Marvin_for_prez · Sep 30, 2006

fgssand said:
Blah Blah Blah - look, your lines suck and ours are far superior. Your QB is truly a good one, but he is no where near as mobile as he once was and he will feel the heat and play into our hands.

While your team has enjoyed a little success VS the Pats in recent years - our dominant running attack changes that this year.

Yes, our D backs suck and your WR's are awesome - but our rush will neutralize that edge.

You guys are coming off of a very hard fought divisional win - we are coming off an embarrassing loss and we are pissed off.

Pats win going away.....come back Sunday night, we will console you.

I'll be here if you will.

One of us will eat some crow, that's for sure. :eat3:

Box_O_Rocks · Sep 30, 2006

Marvin_for_prez said:
I'll be here if you will.
One of us will eat some crow, that's for sure. :eat3:

That's the spirit, and if you are so fortunate as to serve Frank some crow, remember to include a good merlot - crow tends to have a strong flavor and needs wine with body.

Keegs · Sep 30, 2006

Brady'sButtBoy said:
Well, in reponse to the original post, the Steelers did "knock Palmer silly" last week - 6 sacks and many hurries and knock downs - yet he threw for 4 TD's against better corners than we have. And we have not shown anything close to the Pittsburgh pass rush at all. And the Steelers shut down Rudi Johnson for only 47 yds and a 2.5 avg/carry. And Parker and Haynes lit up Cincy for 157yds and 2 TD's.

So the Steelers did 90% of what you prescribed as a winning strategy and still lost, at home, with a better D than we have.

Our only real hope is that Brady and the WR's find themselves and somehow score 35 points w/o turning the ball over because Palmer is going to torch our DB's big time.

and the steelers would have won if it wasn't for the 2 fluke fumbles in the 2 minute span, you are forgetting that.

richpats · Sep 30, 2006

A lot of fans are down after our loss to Denver, but guess what - we lose to Denver when we suck and when we're in the Super Bowl so that game really has no bearing on where we are as a football team (and the same goes for the Broncos, much to the dismay of their fans).

I feel like we really are going to pound Palmer Sunday and come away with a few turnovers. The offense will click this week for once because they have to feel embarrassed for their 2nd-worst offensive showing in the Brady era (Buffalo '03 being #1).

shirtsleeve · Sep 30, 2006

Box_O_Rocks said:
That's the spirit, and if you are so fortunate as to serve Frank some crow, remember to include a good merlot - crow tends to have a strong flavor and needs wine with body.

Or some fava beans and an excellent chianti?
thp thp thp!

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