Chad Jackson: unrealistic expectations?

PonyExpress · Sep 28, 2006

In honor of the Chad Jackson hysteria: Guess which active probowl-caliber wide receivers had the following statistics their rookie seasons:

1. 12 games/28 catches/329 yards/1 TD

2. 16 games/15 catches/246 yards/0 TD

3. 15 games/23 catches/319 yards/ 1 TD

4. 15 games/10 catches/154 yards/0 TD

5. 11 games/23 catches/273 yards/0 TD

6. 13 games/27 catches/345 yards/0 TD

7. 16 games/35 catches/520 yards/4 TD

8. 16 games/20 catches/279 yards/2 TD

9. 7 games/1 catch/12 yards/0 TD

10. 10 games/ 2 catches/ 30 yards/0 TD

11. 16 games/ 6 catches/ 152 yards/ 1 TD

12. 16 games/ 14 catches/186 yards/ 0 TD

ANSWERS:
1. Chad Johnson, 2nd round
2. Hines Ward, 3rd rd
3. Javon Walker, 1st rd
4. Steve Smith, 3rd rd
5. P. Burress, 1st rd
6. R. Wayne, 1st rd
7. T. Owens, 3rd rd
8. E. Moulds, 1st rd
9. A. Toomer, 2nd rd
10. J. Horn, 5th rd
11. R. Smith, UFA
12. D. Mason, 4th rd

mgcolby · Sep 28, 2006

Re: The Chad Jackson hysteria

There you go with that reality crap again.

jaychamp · Sep 28, 2006

Well since people like to say he's the next coming of Jerry Rice(I'm not one of them), let's compare is rookie year

16 games/49 catches/927 yds/4 TDs(1 running)

Anyway, I'm sure there's quite a few that have had similar numbers in their rookie season, so I wouldn't call it unrealistic, just unlikely. And here's one close to home, Branch had better numbers than anyone of those receivers.

Welker83 · Sep 28, 2006

100% correct.

You can name on one hand the amount of succesfull rookie recievers. Just because you have a great QB does not mean that anyone with talent is destined to be great.

Jackson by all accounts will be something special, But it will take time.

Welker83 · Sep 28, 2006

see...even rice was under 1000 his rookie season.

SoonerPatriot · Sep 28, 2006

PonyExpress said:
In honor of the Chad Jackson hysteria: Guess which active probowl-caliber wide receivers had the following statistics their rookie seasons:

1. 12 games/28 catches/329 yards/1 TD

2. 16 games/15 catches/246 yards/0 TD

3. 15 games/23 catches/319 yards/ 1 TD

4. 15 games/10 catches/154 yards/0 TD

5. 11 games/23 catches/273 yards/0 TD

6. 13 games/27 catches/345 yards/0 TD

7. 16 games/35 catches/520 yards/4 TD

8. 16 games/20 catches/279 yards/2 TD

9. 7 games/1 catch/12 yards/0 TD

10. 10 games/ 2 catches/ 30 yards/0 TD

11. 16 games/ 6 catches/ 152 yards/ 1 TD

12. 16 games/ 14 catches/186 yards/ 0 TD

ANSWERS:
1. Chad Johnson, 2nd round
2. Hines Ward, 3rd rd
3. Javon Walker, 1st rd
4. Steve Smith, 3rd rd
5. P. Burress, 1st rd
6. R. Wayne, 1st rd
7. T. Owens, 3rd rd
8. E. Moulds, 1st rd
9. A. Toomer, 2nd rd
10. J. Horn, 5th rd
11. R. Smith, UFA
12. D. Mason, 4th rd

Great post. Nice research. My hope for Jackson was he would come in, play with Branch and Troy and be the No. 3 or 4 guy. In other words, low expectations for the first year. I guess that's different than those who said Jackson would make us forget all about Branch and Givens, a thought that at the moment, is completely laughable.

PonyExpress · Sep 28, 2006

jaychamp said:
Well since people like to say he's the next coming of Jerry Rice(I'm not one of them), let's compare is rookie year

16 games/49 catches/927 yds/4 TDs(1 running)

Anyway, I'm sure there's quite a few that have had similar numbers in their rookie season, so I wouldn't call it unrealistic, just unlikely. And here's one close to home, Branch had better numbers than anyone of those receivers.

Here are Branch's rookie stats: 13 games, 43 catches/489 yards/2 TD. Not too special.

TNPatsFan · Sep 28, 2006

SoonerPatriot said:
I guess that's different than those who said Jackson would make us forget all about Branch and Givens, a thought that at the moment, is completely laughable.

That's not laughable. Jackson has more TD's than Branch and Givens combined right now.

jaychamp · Sep 28, 2006

Welker83 said:
100% correct.

You can name on one hand the amount of succesfull rookie recievers. Just because you have a great QB does not mean that anyone with talent is destined to be great.

Jackson by all accounts will be something special, But it will take time.

I have a question though, what are the unrealistic expectations? 400, 500, 600, 700, 800 yards?

Personally, if he could get between 5-600 yards, I'd be tickled pink. Also, were those receivers as hyped up as Jackson? Honest question, because I don't remember.

SoonerPatriot · Sep 28, 2006

TNPatsFan said:
That's not laughable. Jackson has more TD's than Branch and Givens combined right now.

Yeah, we'll see how long that lasts

rabthepat · Sep 28, 2006

Am I being too unrealistic to expect him to play at all?

jaychamp · Sep 28, 2006

PonyExpress said:
Here are Branch's rookie stats: 13 games, 43 catches/489 yards/2 TD. Not too special.

That's not really my point. How much better is Jackson supposed to be than Branch? Considering so many people here think he's way overrated and should never have been considered a number 1. It's also hard to answer when I don't know what you consider unrealistic expectations. My expectations would top out at about 600 yds if he was healthy throughout the year, but it's already too late for that.

SoonerPatriot · Sep 28, 2006

rabthepat said:
Am I being too unrealistic to expect him to play at all?

At this point you may be. THe thing that discourages me about him is if it really is true that he didn't play Sunday becuase they don't think he's ready from a maturity/mental standpoint then that is a much bigger issue than a bad hamstring. A hamstring either heals or it doesn't. The maturity thing is difficult to predict.

PonyExpress · Sep 28, 2006

After a tough loss, some fans are frustrated about the Deion trade and perplexed by the front office, and they are currently focusing their scrutiny on a 21 one year old rookie 2nd rd wide receiver, as though determined to make his rookie production a referendum on the organization's offseason decision making. I believe this is unfair on several counts: (1) Chad Jackson didn't trade Deion Branch, the FO did. (2) As a rule rookie WRs tend to struggle, even those who eventually become superstars. Exceptions are very rare. It pays to be patient with talented young wideouts.

shirtsleeve · Sep 28, 2006

Jackson is in the right place to be brought along, matured and grounded as an individual. There is enough solid info out there to see that there is truly a maturity problem with the kid. Therefore, he will not be used regularly here until he develops in these ways, as well as on the field. A valuable lesson for him and an investment in the future for the team. This could even save the kid from being a bust. BUT, do not expect great things for the next few weeks at least, and therefore, anything over 400 yds this year is a bonus.

jaychamp · Sep 28, 2006

SoonerPatriot said:
Great post. Nice research.

Stats are easy, but try looking behind the stats. Do you think any of the following had anything to do with their lack of production: The team's state, the QB, top veteran receivers already on the team.

1. Chad Johnson/QB John Kitna
2. Hines Ward/QB Kordell Stewart
3. Javon Walker/WR's Donald Driver and Terry Glenn
4. Steve Smith/QB Chris Weinke
5. P. Burress/QB Kordell Stewart
6. R. Wayne/WR Marvin Harrison
7. T. Owens/WR Jerry Rice
8. E. Moulds/WR's Andre Reed and Quinn Early
9. A. Toomer/QB Dave Brown
10. J. Horn/QB Steve Bono
11. R. Smith/WR's Anthony Miller and Ed Mcaffrey
12. D. Mason/QB McNair 1st year as starter, but I'll give you that one

BradyManny · Sep 28, 2006

SoonerPatriot said:
At this point you may be. THe thing that discourages me about him is if it really is true that he didn't play Sunday becuase they don't think he's ready from a maturity/mental standpoint then that is a much bigger issue than a bad hamstring. A hamstring either heals or it doesn't. The maturity thing is difficult to predict.

How many hamstring injuries have you had recently? Have you noticed that all of the people casting dispersions upon Chad Jackson have never done any sort of atheletics in their lives.

He is INJURED. Get over it.

JoeSixPat · Sep 28, 2006

PonyExpress said:
In honor of the Chad Jackson hysteria: Guess which active probowl-caliber wide receivers had the following statistics their rookie seasons:

1. 12 games/28 catches/329 yards/1 TD

2. 16 games/15 catches/246 yards/0 TD

3. 15 games/23 catches/319 yards/ 1 TD

4. 15 games/10 catches/154 yards/0 TD

5. 11 games/23 catches/273 yards/0 TD

6. 13 games/27 catches/345 yards/0 TD

7. 16 games/35 catches/520 yards/4 TD

8. 16 games/20 catches/279 yards/2 TD

9. 7 games/1 catch/12 yards/0 TD

10. 10 games/ 2 catches/ 30 yards/0 TD

11. 16 games/ 6 catches/ 152 yards/ 1 TD

12. 16 games/ 14 catches/186 yards/ 0 TD

ANSWERS:
1. Chad Johnson, 2nd round
2. Hines Ward, 3rd rd
3. Javon Walker, 1st rd
4. Steve Smith, 3rd rd
5. P. Burress, 1st rd
6. R. Wayne, 1st rd
7. T. Owens, 3rd rd
8. E. Moulds, 1st rd
9. A. Toomer, 2nd rd
10. J. Horn, 5th rd
11. R. Smith, UFA
12. D. Mason, 4th rd

Exactly - what you hope for with a rookie WR is that by the last half dozen games of the season, their production is on par with a #2 WR.

That means approximately what would extrapolate out to 40-50 receptions a season - or 3-4 catches a game for the last half of the season

Its going to take them 6-10 games to adjust you have to figure, though there are exceptions - but keep expectations reasonable for a rookie WR.

Next season if you're lucky you have a bonafide #2 WR - maybe a #1a - and if you're really lucky a #1 - which we all believe Jackson has the talent to be - and nothing he's done or not done has changed that so far as I can see

PonyExpress · Sep 28, 2006

jaychamp said:
Stats are easy, but try looking behind the stats. Do you think any of the following had anything to do with their lack of production: The team's state, the QB, top veteran receivers already on the team.

1. Chad Johnson/QB John Kitna
2. Hines Ward/QB Kordell Stewart
3. Javon Walker/WR's Donald Driver and Terry Glenn
4. Steve Smith/QB Chris Weinke
5. P. Burress/QB Kordell Stewart
6. R. Wayne/WR Marvin Harrison
7. T. Owens/WR Jerry Rice
8. E. Moulds/WR's Andre Reed and Quinn Early
9. A. Toomer/QB Dave Brown
10. J. Horn/QB Steve Bono
11. R. Smith/WR's Anthony Miller and Ed Mcaffrey
12. D. Mason/QB McNair 1st year as starter, but I'll give you that one

Chad Johnson couldn't outperform Ron Duggan and Darne Scott on his own team; Ward was outdone by Will Blackwell, Courtney Hawkins and Charles Johnson; Walker only caught 41 passes his 2nd year after Glenn was gone; Steve Smith was outproduced by Isaac Byrd, Donald Hayes and Patrick Jeffers; Burress was outcaught by Bobby Shaw; Terence Wilkins proved himself a more reliable pass catcher for Manning than Reggie Wayne; SF had a top 10 passing offense in the league Owens' rookie year; Steve Tasker, who only caught 51 passes in his CAREER caught more passes than Moulds that year; Amani Toomer only lined up at WR for ONE GAME so it doesn't matter who was throwing the ball, he wasn't going to catch it from the bench. etc. etc. Even elite wideouts take time to mature.

jaychamp · Sep 28, 2006

PonyExpress said:
...deal with it.

Edited since you deleted that, thank you.

FWIW, I think you bring up good points about the other scrub receivers, but I not only think he will contribute a good amount, but that we actually need him too. Unless Gabriel can really turn into something special this year which is entirely possible.

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