Predict Patrots 2010 record

I see the "5th ranked defense" argument is back in vogue. This defense only truly looked like the 5th ranked defenses when they were playing sub-par offenses last season. During the season, we played on three top 10 offenses. When that happened, we lost. We allowed point totals of 35, 38, and 34 respectively. Those games were against the Colts, Saints, and Texans. Against the Colts, we allowed Manning to throw 4 TD's. Against the Saints, we allowed Brees to throw 5 TD's. Against the Texans, we allowed Schaub 2 TD's through the air. We got eaten alive on the ground in that game too allowing back-up Arian Foster to run for 119 yards and 2 TD's. While we're on it, most teams out there could eat us alive on the ground last year. This defense kept springing leaks throughout the entire season until the dam finally broke open in the Wild Card round. This defense might have been the 5th ranked defense, but anybody with a set of eyes could see that they weren't. The fact that we ranked 5th tells me we beat up on the little sisters of the poor but didn't show up against the big boys. Our D had more than their fair share of issues last year. Let's hope that Belichick and Co. have figured those issues out.

KontradictioN said:

I see the "5th ranked defense" argument is back in vogue. This defense only truly looked like the 5th ranked defenses when they were playing sub-par offenses last season. During the season, we played on three top 10 offenses. When that happened, we lost. We allowed point totals of 35, 38, and 34 respectively. Those games were against the Colts, Saints, and Texans. Against the Colts, we allowed Manning to throw 4 TD's. Against the Saints, we allowed Brees to throw 5 TD's. Against the Texans, we allowed Schaub 2 TD's through the air. We got eaten alive on the ground in that game too allowing back-up Arian Foster to run for 119 yards and 2 TD's. While we're on it, most teams out there could eat us alive on the ground last year. This defense kept springing leaks throughout the entire season until the dam finally broke open in the Wild Card round. This defense might have been the 5th ranked defense, but anybody with a set of eyes could see that they weren't. The fact that we ranked 5th tells me we beat up on the little sisters of the poor but didn't show up against the big boys. Our D had more than their fair share of issues last year. Let's hope that Belichick and Co. have figured those issues out.

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None of that has anything to do with rankings. Teams that ranked worse than 5th also allowed more points to some teams than others. Do you think teams that allowed more points than us,didn't have some of the issues you mentioned? I'm pretty sure that the 14th or 17th ranked teams allowed more points to good teams than bad ones too. I don't know how that is relevant.
Its like saying Joe Blow is 5th in the American League in batting average and arguing that he really isnt because there are some pitchers he didn't hit well against.
By the way, the Houston game shouldnt be included because we mailed it in on purpose.

AndyJohnson said:

None of that has anything to do with rankings. Teams that ranked worse than 5th also allowed more points to some teams than others. Do you think teams that allowed more points than us,didn't have some of the issues you mentioned? I'm pretty sure that the 14th or 17th ranked teams allowed more points to good teams than bad ones too. I don't know how that is relevant.
Its like saying Joe Blow is 5th in the American League in batting average and arguing that he really isnt because there are some pitchers he didn't hit well against.
By the way, the Houston game shouldnt be included because we mailed it in on purpose.

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So wait, you REALLY think that this was the fifth best defense in the league last year? And if we mailed in the Houston game, why were Brady, Moss, and Welker playing? Any game in which the starters were playing on both sides of the ball should count. On top of that, taking out the Houston game makes your argument over our defense being the 5th best unit in the league even worse. It means we only played two quality offenses last year and got absolutely destroyed each time.

KontradictioN said:

I see the "5th ranked defense" argument is back in vogue. .

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BTW, its not an argument, its a fact. Thats what a ranking is.

AndyJohnson said:

BTW, its not an argument, its a fact. Thats what a ranking is.

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Like stats, rankings don't tell the whole story. Anybody that watched our defense last year knows that they weren't the fifth best defense in the league. Our ranking was a product of the quality offenses we played. Had we played, say, Green Bay, Minnesota, and San Diego on top of playing the Colts, Saints, and Texans last year, we would most likely be out of the top ten.

KontradictioN said:

So wait, you REALLY think that this was the fifth best defense in the league last year? And if we mailed in the Houston game, why were Brady, Moss, and Welker playing? Any game in which the starters were playing on both sides of the ball should count. On top of that, taking out the Houston game makes your argument over our defense being the 5th best unit in the league even worse. It means we only played two quality offenses last year and got absolutely destroyed each time.

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They allowed the 5th fewest points. I would say points allowed is the best way to rank a defense. Why do you think defenses that allowed more points were better?
How long did the starters play?
Show me all of the defenses that allowed more points but somehow were better. Points is the best yardstick right? You seem to want to give more credit for points allowed depending on who they are allowed against, yet the teams ranked below 5th are assumed to have stopped good teams? Did they not stop bad teams? How was their production worse?
You may want to argue that the cutoff of good defense was above 5, but I don't know how the teams that allowed more points were better, sight unseen, because of reasons that may or may not apply to them as well.

AndyJohnson said:

BTW, its not an argument, its a fact. Thats what a ranking is.

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You honestly believe we are a top 5 defense in the league?

KontradictioN said:

Like stats, rankings don't tell the whole story. Anybody that watched our defense last year knows that they weren't the fifth best defense in the league. Our ranking was a product of the quality offenses we played. Had we played, say, Green Bay, Minnesota, and San Diego on top of playing the Colts, Saints, and Texans last year, we would most likely be out of the top ten.

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We've been through this with Andy before, unfortunately. No matter how thoroughly we explain to him that points allowed isn't enough to evaluate defenses, he's just going to keep believing it. He's been led to water, but...

For the record, anyone who thinks that the Pats had top-5 defense is insane. You can't evaluate a D based on one stat, without any regard for strength of schedule, takeaways, scoring, field position, red zone and third down percentages, whether defenses were playing from behind or with a lead, etc. etc.

It's kinda like noticing that a NL #8 hitter gets walked more than the #7, and concluding that it's because the #8 is better and/or more patient, with no regard for how the #8 is being walked to get to the pitcher at #9. Everything has context, and ignoring it never helps.

The Pats were clearly not the 5th best defense in the league last year. They showed potential to become very good someday but I'd still stick them around the #10 - #12 spot, meaning they're capable of shutting down most offenses but will struggle against the best teams.

I remember this defense holding the Colts to 17 points through 3 1/2 quarters, playing much better than I expected them to. The fact that they gave it away speaks more to their lack of leadership and mental toughness, two things which I think can be fixed this year. We'll see if they make any strides in 2010.

KontradictioN said:

Like stats, rankings don't tell the whole story. Anybody that watched our defense last year knows that they weren't the fifth best defense in the league. Our ranking was a product of the quality offenses we played. Had we played, say, Green Bay, Minnesota, and San Diego on top of playing the Colts, Saints, and Texans last year, we would most likely be out of the top ten.

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So if we played the 16 best offenses we would allow more points than if we played an average schedule? Yup. What is your point?What was the average offense we faced last year?
Our opponents averaged 21.5 ppg last year. If you eliminate the games vs us, our opponents add up to almost exactly the 22 ppg the league averaged.
So we faced exactly an average schedule of offenses and were 5th least in points allowed, but you are arguing we are only 5th because of our schedule. That is just incorrect.

BradyMossWelker said:

You honestly believe we are a top 5 defense in the league?

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We allowed the 5th fewest points. It isnt my belief it is a fact.
I would consider preventing points to be the best gauge of a defense.
Why do you feel that defenses that allowed more points than we did were better? Please list them and explain why they were better while giving up more points.

BradyFTW! said:

We've been through this with Andy before, unfortunately. No matter how thoroughly we explain to him that points allowed isn't enough to evaluate defenses, he's just going to keep believing it. He's been led to water, but...

For the record, anyone who thinks that the Pats had top-5 defense is insane. You can't evaluate a D based on one stat, without any regard for strength of schedule, takeaways, scoring, field position, red zone and third down percentages, whether defenses were playing from behind or with a lead, etc. etc.

It's kinda like noticing that a NL #8 hitter gets walked more than the #7, and concluding that it's because the #8 is better and/or more patient, with no regard for how the #8 is being walked to get to the pitcher at #9. Everything has context, and ignoring it never helps.

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First of all, i did not say we were the 5th best defense. That is too subjective.
I said the most important measuremet of a defense is how many points they allow, and we were 5th in that.
Feel free to show me why defenses that allowed more points to their opponents were better.
I am not making a statistical argument. I am not making a judgment whether run D on first and 10 or pass rush on 2nd and 12 are more important.
I am saying that if you ask me what is the most important job of a defense, I say its how many points they allow. Do you dispute that?
I then look and say we were 5th best at allowing points.
How difficult is that to understand.
And yes, unfortunately we have been through this before, so maybe you can explain why points aren't what decideds games.

FWIW, our defense was 4th in points allowed. Even better! The difference between 4th and 5th was the defensive and ST TDs that the Pats gave up.

Sciz said:

FWIW, our defense was 4th in points allowed. Even better! The difference between 4th and 5th was the defensive and ST TDs that the Pats gave up.

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But the original point I was making has been proven.
We ranked 5th in the NFL in points allowed. Yet we didn't win the SB, we actually allowed points to good teams. We were better than most teams but we werent the best, and the as soon as the stat is posted that we were 5th in points allowed, the swarm shows up to say we sucked.
No one has yet to show me how other teams that allowed more points were better. Just that the results werent as good as they were in the SB years, so we can't make any kind of positive statement.
Instead, points don't matter, or the way we allowed them is worse than some other way that isnt explained, or something else I don't understand.
Until we go 19-0 we will suck in many sets of eyes.

13-3.

offense has a multitude of weapons w/ a healthier Brady.

Secondary (Young, talented depth) and run defense (McKenzie/Spikes as run-down ILBs) make for a better D.

Pass-rush costs them a few hiccups.

AndyJohnson said:

First of all, i did not say we were the 5th best defense. That is too subjective.
I said the most important measuremet of a defense is how many points they allow, and we were 5th in that.
Feel free to show me why defenses that allowed more points to their opponents were better.
I am not making a statistical argument. I am not making a judgment whether run D on first and 10 or pass rush on 2nd and 12 are more important.
I am saying that if you ask me what is the most important job of a defense, I say its how many points they allow. Do you dispute that?
I then look and say we were 5th best at allowing points.
How difficult is that to understand.
And yes, unfortunately we have been through this before, so maybe you can explain why points aren't what decideds games.

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Points are what decide games. Only in your head does that translate to points allowed being the only valid way to judge a defense. If you're acknowledging that the Pats weren't a top-5 defense last year, then you've outright admitted that that's not the case.

The reality of the matter is that there are a ton of factors, based on the type of opponent and the team's offense, that strongly influence what a defense has to do. If the offense fumbles the ball away on the 10, , but the defense stonewalls the opponent and holds them to a FG, are you honestly going to claim that that D did the same job as one that surrenders a FG after a 70 yard march down the field? Are you going to ignore how heavily dependent scoring offense is on field position, and completely fail to acknowledge that defenses that get takeaways strongly influence points scored as well as points allowed?

Eh, screw it, I'm done with this debate, not going to have it again. Everyone but you gets it.

AndyJohnson said:

They allowed the 5th fewest points. I would say points allowed is the best way to rank a defense. Why do you think defenses that allowed more points were better?
How long did the starters play?
Show me all of the defenses that allowed more points but somehow were better. Points is the best yardstick right? You seem to want to give more credit for points allowed depending on who they are allowed against, yet the teams ranked below 5th are assumed to have stopped good teams? Did they not stop bad teams? How was their production worse?
You may want to argue that the cutoff of good defense was above 5, but I don't know how the teams that allowed more points were better, sight unseen, because of reasons that may or may not apply to them as well.

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You may want to try reading my posts. I'm using points on top of offensive competition to make my point. You keep sticking with points while ignoring the fact that we faced some VERY sub-par offensive competition. It's really that simple, Andy. But for argument's sake, and since we already saw how badly our defense fared against better competition, let's take a look at the other offenses we faced last year...

Week; Team; (Offensive Rank)
1. Buffalo (30th) - We allowed 24 points to the Bills, allowed Trent Edwards to go 15/25 for 212 yards and 2 TD's. Not exactly what you would want to see our defense doing against a sub-par quarterback leading a sub-par offense as we only forced Edwards into 10 incompletions.

2. Jets (20th) - Pretty decent game against another sub-par offense. We only allowed 16 points which looks like a good outing and, to be honest, we lost this game because of our offense. However, my previous assertion (that the run defense was not very good last year) stands out here still as we allowed the Jets a total of 119 yards on the ground in spite of the fact that we knew they were going to be run-heavy going into the game.

3. Falcons (16th) - Only allowed 10 points here. Pretty decent outing by the defense again but this game was a product of the Falcons playing poorly on both sides of the ball.

4. Ravens (13th) - This was probably our first true test of the season and while we only allowed 21 points, it could have (and should have if you ask Ravens fans) easily been 28-30+. We allowed 264 yards through the air but the most alarming stat was that we allowed Ray Rice to rumble for 103 yards on just 11 carries. Once again, points allowed isn't the end all, be all for this defense. They did not play like a top 5 defense in this game either and, sadly, this game would serve as a warning for what would happen later on in the season.

5. Broncos (15th) - This was really the first clue that something was off about this defense and that they weren't as good as they looked early on in the season. Even though they only allowed 20 points, they let Orton have whatever he wanted through the air. He had a career day against our defense (CAREER day) and only missed on 13 passes despite throwing 48 of them. The defense got absolutely picked apart by competition that wasn't even top shelf. On top of that, they once again allowed the opposing running game to have an good day. The Broncos offense put up 430 yards of total offense against our "5th best defense in the league". In the red zone (an important stat since our defense is supposed to bend, but not break), the Broncos were two for three for two TD's.

6. Tennessee (12th) - If any game shouldn't count because a team didn't show up, it's this game. The Titans simply did not show up to play at all. They quit from the moment they got into the snow and, not to mention, Kerry Collins was still their quarterback. EVEN THEN, though, we still allowed Chris Johnson over 100 yards on the ground. Funny because we knew it was coming but still couldn't stop it. This game, a farce for Tennessee, is one of the main reasons for our #5 ranking.

7. Tampa Bay (28th) - What else is new? This was the story of our defense in 2009. Pick on the Little Sisters of the Poor. Tampa Bay was just horrible all the way around last season so I guess we did what we should have here.

9. Miami (17) - Good win here. But it should have been. Henne was a new starting quarterback with limited weapons around him yet still threw for almost 220 yards for 1 TD. Once again, we couldn't stop the run to save our lives. The Brown/White/Williams trio rushed for a grand total of 133 yards against us. Miami also shot themselves in the foot a good amount of this game on offense as well as defense. But make no mistake, this was a very winnable game for them.

10. Indy (9) - As has already been explained, we got torched. Just like we did against every other top ten defense we played.

11. Jets (20th) - The Jets vaunted 20th ranked offense came into town and our defense quickly took advantage of the second worst starting QB in the league last year, which they should have. Even though we demolished Sanchez, we still allowed Thomas Jones 103 yards on the ground. Once again we got chewed up by the run even though we knew it was coming.

12. Saints (1) - I believe this was the first time in the Belichick era that we allowed 5 TD's through the air to a single quarterback. Brees ate this defense for breakfast, lunch, and dinner. We also allowed their running game over 100 yards on the ground. Look at what teams like the Jets did to this offense. Hell, even the Dolphins fared better. Against our defense, the Saints' racked up 465 yards in total offense. Top 5 defenses are supposed to play better against offensive competition like this.

13. Dolphins (17) - While you'll miss the point and undoubtedly point to points allowed here, I'll point to that on top of what else happened. Top 5 defenses are supposed to allow Chad Henne, Devone Bess, and Brian Hartline to put up huge days. Henne, in particular, looked like Montana at times there and threw for 355 yards and 2 TD's. He completely picked us apart. On the bright side, we only allowed the Dolphins' running game 88 yards. But when Chad Henne throws for 355 yards against you, allowing 88 yards on the ground looks like a minor accomplishment to say the least.

I'm going to stop there because I think I made my point. In case you're interested, the defense once again beat up on the Little Sisters of the Poor for three weeks straight before being torched by Houston again. Even then, they still allowed the Panthers (19) and Bills (30) to run for over 100 yards while holding the Jaguars (18) to a more modest amount of 98. You see, my point stands. This team did not play a lot of quality offensive competition. That's why their ranked is skewed. Top five defenses hold their opponents to under 100 yards on the ground more often than they don't. Top five defenses don't allow passing offenses the calibur of the Dolphins and the Broncos to have career days against them. Top five defenses do what they're supposed to against lesser offensive teams and still show up against the big dogs. While we were able to pick on the lesser offensive teams, we still didn't show up against the big dogs. So if you want to throw out the Houston game than be my guest. You should know that it only hurts your argument more than it helps it. On top of that if you're going to throw out the Houston game then you should also throw out the Tennessee game.

BradyFTW! said:

Points are what decide games. Only in your head does that translate to points allowed being the only valid way to judge a defense. If you're acknowledging that the Pats weren't a top-5 defense last year, then you've outright admitted that that's not the case.

The reality of the matter is that there are a ton of factors, based on the type of opponent and the team's offense, that strongly influence what a defense has to do. If the offense fumbles the ball away on the 10, , but the defense stonewalls the opponent and holds them to a FG, are you honestly going to claim that that D did the same job as one that surrenders a FG after a 70 yard march down the field? Are you going to ignore how heavily dependent scoring offense is on field position, and completely fail to acknowledge that defenses that get takeaways strongly influence points scored as well as points allowed?

Eh, screw it, I'm done with this debate, not going to have it again. Everyone but you gets it.

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Yeah, I guess we should remember that we're trying to argue with the guy who was, earlier in the offseason, attempting to defend Sam Aiken as a viable third option in our offense. This was only a 5th ranked defense last year due to below average offensive competition. Like I said, throw in games against teams like Green Bay, Minnesota, and San Diego (all teams we play this year), we're very likely out of the top ten.

Not that I support AndyJohnson but with your logic let's look at the Jets, that is the supposedly number 1 defense of all time according to some.

Week; Team; (Offensive Rank)
1. St Louis (29th) Allowed 23 Points.

2. Ravens (13th) Allowed 24 points.

3. NY Giants (8th) Allowed 25 points.

4. Eagles (11th) Allowed 27 points.

After that the jets had some good defense stops even shutting out the Raiders 38-0 however they did lose to the Dolphins twice first time giving up 31 points and the second time giving up 30 points.

Again I'm not saying the pats defense was the number 5 defense however it's not as bad as some on this board make it out to be. Normally I just read everyone's comments but this just bugged me to much to ignore.

gobesmug said:

Not that I support AndyJohnson but with your logic let's look at the Jets, that is the supposedly number 1 defense of all time according to some.

Week; Team; (Offensive Rank)
1. St Louis (29th) Allowed 23 Points.

2. Ravens (13th) Allowed 24 points.

3. NY Giants (8th) Allowed 25 points.

4. Eagles (11th) Allowed 27 points.

After that the jets had some good defense stops even shutting out the Raiders 38-0 however they did lose to the Dolphins twice first time giving up 31 points and the second time giving up 30 points.

Again I'm not saying the pats defense was the number 5 defense however it's not as bad as some on this board make it out to be. Normally I just read everyone's comments but this just bugged me to much to ignore.

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Wow. Just wow.