TBC productivity

Sleeping King said:

Although I think the real difference that seems to be overlooked is that TBC isn't the focal point of a offensive teams strategy.

Peppers, Allen and Freeney are going against a glut of double teams and protection slides. I don't have the stats to back it up but I would venture to say he had half the double teams of those elite pass rushers. I just hope this doesn't come off as a bash TBC post. It certainly is not intended that way. He's the best we have right now at getting pressure.

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Of course those are factors, but we are speaking of productivity.
The purpose isnt to say the players are interchangable, its to say the production is remarkably similar. I'd rather have a guy who matches 'elite production' whether he draws as many double teams or not than to not have the production either.

VJCPatriot said:

Why not? It was his assignment to drop back on that play. Warner did not anticipate Harrison dropping back, and on the runback he had some good blocking in front of him. That play happened by design. It's the perfect example of the Pittsburgh scheme at work. They blitz you and pressure you on one play, then bring pressure from a different area and/or drop a guy into coverage on the next.

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And all those linebackers have to do is be able to rush the QB on one play and cover receivers the next.

Thanks for these stats. I get pissed at how dismissive the media and many fans are towards TBC's production. Also I think TBC represents great value at a position that can consume a significant portion of the cap. To that end I've broken down sacks vs. salary cap figures for the 2009 sack leaders in cap $ per sack. (I used the USA Today 2009 cap values) Here is how it breaks down from best value from a salary cap stand point to worst:


Using these statistics, in 2009, TBC was the best value (in terms of sacks) for a player not playing on a rookie contract. Not bad for a guy who got only 0.5 fewer sacks than Julius Peppers last year.

So according to this TBC is better than Jared Allen and Dwight Freeny at getting to the QB? Or did I read it wrong?

kurtinelson said:

Code:

    Player,Sacks, Cap-Value,cost-per-sack
1. Elvis Dumervil*, 17.5, $640,730, $37,690 
2. Lamar Woodley*,13.5, $724,800, $53,688
3. Clay Mathews*,10, $1,220,000, $122,000
4. Brian Orakpo*, 11, $1,588,000, $144,363
5. Demarcus Ware*,11, $2,163240, $196,685
6. [b]Tully BC,   10, $2,266,666, $226,666[/b]
7. Trent Cole*, 12.5, $4,075,000, $326,000
8.  Andre Carter, 11, $4,198,332, $380,848
9. James Harrison, 10, $5,701,030,  $570,103
10. Will Smith, 13, $9,421,666,  $724,743
11. Jared Allen, 14.5, $11,663,674, $804,391
12. Dwight Freeney, 13.5, $11,220520, $831,149
13. Aaron Schobel, 10, $8,564,431, $856,443
14. Julius Peppers  10.5, $19,133,000, $1,822,190

* playing under rookie contract

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This is very interesting. I've never thought about the game this way...Anyone else see a sack and think, "Well, that was worth half a mil.?"

How much does Brady get paid per completion?

Sleeping King said:

I hate to downplay the significance of doing well against a division rival but TBC did have half of his sacks in the two games against Buffalo.

I'm certainly glad he is back but you are mentioning him in the same sentence as some elite pass rushers.

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Exactly....Anyone who wants to convince themselves he's comparable to Peppers or J. Allen type of rusher or even remotely in the same league needs to have their head examined.

This is the same guy who we waived and 49'ers waived. He had a decent year, that's all

AndyJohnson said:

I'm using their raw stats, not their opinions.
I did note that looking the 'pressure' category, it should be taken with a grain of salt because it is unofficial and could be applied arbitrarily.

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That's a key distinction, and a very good one. I place no value on PFF's 'value' statistics (which tend to offer up certifiably insane results), but the raw numbers don't require you to take that leap of faith; just acknowledge the possibility of bias in collecting them.

kurtinelson said:

Thanks for these stats. I get pissed at how dismissive the media and many fans are towards TBC's production. Also I think TBC represents great value at a position that can consume a significant portion of the cap. To that end I've broken down sacks vs. salary cap figures for the 2009 sack leaders in cap $ per sack. (I used the USA Today 2009 cap values) Here is how it breaks down from best value to worst:

Code:

    Player,Sacks, Cap-Value,cost-per-sack
1. Elvis Dumervil*, 17.5, $640,730, $37,690 
2. Lamar Woodley*,13.5, $724,800, $53,688
3. Clay Mathews*,10, $1,220,000, $122,000
4. Brian Orakpo*, 11, $1,588,000, $144,363
5. Demarcus Ware*,11, $2,163240, $196,685
6. [b]Tully BC,   10, $2,266,666, $226,666[/b]
7. Trent Cole*, 12.5, $4,075,000, $326,000
8.  Andre Carter, 11, $4,198,332, $380,848
9. James Harrison, 10, $5,701,030,  $570,103
10. Will Smith, 13, $9,421,666,  $724,743
11. Jared Allen, 14.5, $11,663,674, $804,391
12. Dwight Freeney, 13.5, $11,220520, $831,149
13. Aaron Schobel, 10, $8,564,431, $856,443
14. Julius Peppers  10.5, $19,133,000, $1,822,190

* playing under rookie contract

Using these statistics, in 2009, TBC was the best value (in terms of sacks) for a player not playing on a rookie contract. Not bad for a guy who got only 0.5 fewer sacks than Julius Peppers last year.

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Sacks are not the whole story....Peppers is the primary focus of any Offense and gets double teamed.

By your analysis TBC is far greater a player than Seymour, when we know Big Sey was the primary target of double teams.

TBC had a decent year, that's all. Beyond that he's yet to show he can consistently produce be it when he was a NEP first time, or as a 49er

DonBlackmon55 said:

Exactly....Anyone who wants to convince themselves he's comparable to Peppers or J. Allen type of rusher or even remotely in the same league needs to have their head examined.

This is the same guy who we waived and 49'ers waived. He had a decent year, that's all

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Decent year, look at the list of people he's sandwiched with.

Jared allen: 7.5 sacks out of 14.5 came against the Packers, more than half his sacks.

I guess he's mediocre.

patsinthesnow said:

Decent year, look at the list of people he's sandwiched with.

Jared allen: 7.5 sacks out of 14.5 came against the Packers, more than half his sacks.

I guess he's mediocre.

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Jared Allen
93 Career Games.......72.0 sacks.....21 forced Fumbles
oh by the way.....61 Career Games as KC Chief (****ty team).....43.0 sacks

TBC
98 Career Games.....22.5 sacks, of which 10.0 were in 2009 season. So before this year he played 82 games and had a grand total of 12.5 sacks. And a grand total of 3 FF in 98 Games.


Now, you can lay down the crack pipe your smoking and get back to reality.

DonBlackmon55 said:

Jared Allen
93 Career Games.......72.0 sacks.....21 forced Fumbles
oh by the way.....61 Career Games as KC Chief (****ty team).....43.0 sacks

TBC
98 Career Games.....22.5 sacks, of which 10.0 were in 2009 season. So before this year he played 82 games and had a grand total of 12.5 sacks. And a grand total of 3 FF in 98 Games.


Now, you can lay down the crack pipe your smoking and get back to reality.

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It's about what he does now, players can improve....

How about this:

James Harrison

91 Career Games....38.5 sacks, of which 26 came in the last two years. (DPOY 2008) So before 2008, he had a grand total of 12.5 sacks in 6 years, while being cut with the Steelers in between.

patsinthesnow said:

It's about what he does now, players can improve....

How about this:

James Harrison

91 Career Games....38.5 sacks, of which 26 came in the last two years. (DPOY 2008) So before 2008, he had a grand total of 12.5 sacks in 6 years, while being cut with the Steelers in between.

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Well great, bring the argument when TBC makes it as DPOY. James Harrison has done it in 2007, 2008, 2009, and has 19 FF

To put TBC into Jared Allen, Peppers league is beyond stupidity.

TBC will be 30 yr old starting the 2010 season.

good number he did a good job last year if he can put up the same number this year with. a few rookie OLB in the mix helping him out the pass rush should be better.

makoute said:

So according to this TBC is better than Jared Allen and Dwight Freeny at getting to the QB? Or did I read it wrong?

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No. TBC is not a better player than Allen or Freeney. The point of these statistics is to show that the Pats are getting good value from a cap standpoint at a position that usually requires big money.

The Allen's cap hit last year was $11,663,674. Freeney's was $11,220,520. TBC's was in the $2 million range.

DonBlackmon55 said:

By your analysis TBC is far greater a player than Seymour, when we know Big Sey was the primary target of double teams.

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Of course I'm not saying TBC is better than Seymour. I'm talking about 4-3 DEs and 3-4 OLBs, sack totals, and how much teams typically need to spend at that position to get production.

I think it's great work and interesting stats and i haven't read all the posts so i don't know if anyone has brought it up yet but... I would be interested to know how many times each of the people and TBC were double teamed in those rushes. Also a lot of the people you mentioned e.g freeny and peppers made holes for other d linemen as the other team had to game plan around them. not to take anything away from TBC or the ststs you have provided i just thing there is just a little more to it.

I also agree the TBC has been great value for money for his production

Sleeping King said:

I hate to downplay the significance of doing well against a division rival but TBC did have half of his sacks in the two games against Buffalo.

I'm certainly glad he is back but you are mentioning him in the same sentence as some elite pass rushers.

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That is often the way sacks come. For instance Richard Seymour had 4 sacks last season. He had 2 in 2 separate games, and 14 games with zero sacks.

DonBlackmon55 said:

Jared Allen
93 Career Games.......72.0 sacks.....21 forced Fumbles
oh by the way.....61 Career Games as KC Chief (****ty team).....43.0 sacks

TBC
98 Career Games.....22.5 sacks, of which 10.0 were in 2009 season. So before this year he played 82 games and had a grand total of 12.5 sacks. And a grand total of 3 FF in 98 Games.


Now, you can lay down the crack pipe your smoking and get back to reality.

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But we are talking about how productive he was in 2009. Prior years have nothing to do with that

I love B-Cain but teams game plan for and double team those guys you compared him with.

AndyJohnson said:

But we are talking about how productive he was in 2009. Prior years have nothing to do with that

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Last year Roddy White had more yards than Larry Fitzgerald, and about same # TD. So, by that theory Roddy White is more productive since past years, or how Fitzgerald is account by other D's has nothing to do with it.

LOL. You amuse me