Which Option Would You Prefer?

Marqui · Dec 24, 2009

mayoclinic said:
What if we changed option 1 to DE Cameron Heyward at 23, and one of the following guys at 45: WR Golden Tate, TE Aaron Hernandez or Jermaine Gresham, or RB Jahvid Best, Jonathan Dwyer or Ryan Mathews?

OK. That would make a pretty big difference. In that case I would probably go with option 1 taking Gresham and let Watson walk (could help resign Bodden or something). Since I think CH and RM are pretty much equal in potential, I just went with the 3-4 DE because you really should build your defense from the inside out.

To be honest I wouldn't care which option happened if we ended up with a draft anywhere near that awesome.

mayoclinic · Dec 24, 2009

Marqui said:
OK. That would make a pretty big difference. In that case I would probably go with option 1 taking Gresham and let Watson walk (could help resign Bodden or something). Since I think CH and RM are pretty much equal in potential, I just went with the 3-4 DE because you really should build your defense from the inside out.

To be honest I wouldn't care which option happened if we ended up with a draft anywhere near that awesome.

I would like to see us come away with at least one blue chip prospect plus 3-4 red chip prospects. Because there is so much depth in this draft, red chip prospects will probably go out to about 75 or so, maybe more. Also, because there is so much depth at certain positions with relatively little sepration among the top prospects (including OG and DE/OLB), I'd rather see us take those positions in the 2nd round than use up our first round pick on them. I like Mike Iupati, but I'm not sure I like him any better than Gabe Carimi or Vladimir Ducasse, for example. I like Greg Romeus, but I also like Greg Hardy, Jason Pierre-Paul, Austen Lane and Jeremy Beal.

The blue chip guys that I could see us targeting (with or without a tradeup) include:

1. ILB Rolando McClain. He could go top 10, but I'm guessing he slips back a bit to the 10-20 range because of his position and lack of top-end speed. If he's still available within 10 picks of where we are scheduled to pick, I hope we trade up for him.

2. CB Joe Haden. Not a need unless we don't re-sign or replace Leigh Bodden, in which case CB is a definite need. Haden and Butler would be a heck of a CB tandem. Probably 10-15 pick.

3. DE Cameron Heyward. May not come out, but I think he could be another Seymour at the 5-technique, which is a position of need. Could go anywhere from around 12 to the early 2nd round.

4. RB CJ Spiller. His upside, as BillBelichickFan79 put it, is Chris Johnson with better receiving and return ability. His downside is a 3rd down back and STer, but if you believe his upside he is worth a 1st round pick if he slides to the early 20's.

If no blue chip prospect is available (or a trade doesn't work out), then I could see the Pats moving back in the 1st round or out of it altogether, since there's not a lot to separate all of the red chip prospects.

DocE · Dec 25, 2009

This is a very intersting question. It's too early in the process (especially my process) for me to have developed strong feelings about particular players. I choose to look at the options this way: Trade up to no.11 and get an in impact defender, likely in year one or Stay put and take an offensive impact player. This seems to be the trend in the draft as it seems to be more likely to be able to get an impact RB/WR later in Round One when the top DL's and CB's go in the early to middle part of the round.

As of today, I'd trade up and take McClain(or whoever I think has the best chance of being an elite defender in April) rather than staying put and taking Spiller (or best RB/WR on my list in April). My line of thinking is that the Patriots currently have two playmakers on offense in Moss and Welker along with an elite QB (when he's right) in Tom Brady. On defense, the Patriots have one elite player (Vince Wilfork), but he's not really a playmaker. The need on defense is so great that I'd pay the price of a second round pick to grab an impact player for the defense. Obviously, the risk of missing on that high pick AND losing a 2nd round pick in the process gives me pause. In choosing the trade up option, I'd hope to land a RB/WR with either the Pats own 2nd rounder or the Chiefs 3rd rounder in the projceted trade.

mayoclinic · Dec 25, 2009

DocE said:
This is a very intersting question. It's too early in the process (especially my process) for me to have developed strong feelings about particular players. I choose to look at the options this way: Trade up to no.11 and get an in impact defender, likely in year one or Stay put and take an offensive impact player. This seems to be the trend in the draft as it seems to be more likely to be able to get an impact RB/WR later in Round One when the top DL's and CB's go in the early to middle part of the round.

As of today, I'd trade up and take McClain(or whoever I think has the best chance of being an elite defender in April) rather than staying put and taking Spiller (or best RB/WR on my list in April). My line of thinking is that the Patriots currently have two playmakers on offense in Moss and Welker along with an elite QB (when he's right) in Tom Brady. On defense, the Patriots have one elite player (Vince Wilfork), but he's not really a playmaker. The need on defense is so great that I'd pay the price of a second round pick to grab an impact player for the defense. Obviously, the risk of missing on that high pick AND losing a 2nd round pick in the process gives me pause. In choosing the trade up option, I'd hope to land a RB/WR with either the Pats own 2nd rounder or the Chiefs 3rd rounder in the projceted trade.

Good thought process.

The best offensive playmaker in 2007 was DeSean Jackson, taken at #47. The best offensive playmaker in 2008 was Chris Johnson, taken at #24. The best offensive playmaker in 2009 was Percy Harvin, taken at #23. I think there's a decent chance Spiller slips to 23, though it's a copycat league and the success of the 3 guys listed above may cause teams to take the plunge sooner.

As you say, we obviously need playmakers on defense. We also need defensive leaders. McClain is the pre-eminent example of both in this draft.

Ochmed Jones · Dec 25, 2009

I picked option #2 because McClain:
1.) is a three down 3-4 ILB
2.) Played three years in OUR defense and knows OUR terminology
3.) Allows us to play Mayo on the weak side, maybe over there Mayo can actually make a play.

I do want to say that I only do this IF I can use the other two second rounders to trade up and get Mount Cody. Without Mount Cody, the trade up for the ILB's might be moot,because they won't have the room to roam sideline to sideline without the big man stacking up two and three blockers at the LOS and not giving an inch of ground.

I have said all along, anything we get in this draft AFTER CODY is gravy. And whether we get a third round comp pick for Wilfolk signing with Miami or we get a first by trading Wilfork to Denver or a second by trading Wilfork to KC, makes little difference to me, because Cody is already a better NT than Wilfork and Cody has not played a down of pro football.

NePatriots · Dec 25, 2009

Ochmed Jones said:
I picked option #2 because McClain:
1.) is a three down 3-4 ILB
2.) Played three years in OUR defense and knows OUR terminology
3.) Allows us to play Mayo on the weak side, maybe over there Mayo can actually make a play.

I do want to say that I only do this IF I can use the other two second rounders to trade up and get Mount Cody. Without Mount Cody, the trade up for the ILB's might be moot,because they won't have the room to roam sideline to sideline without the big man stacking up two and three blockers at the LOS and not giving an inch of ground.

I have said all along, anything we get in this draft AFTER CODY is gravy. And whether we get a third round comp pick for Wilfolk signing with Miami or we get a first by trading Wilfork to Denver or a second by trading Wilfork to KC, makes little difference to me, because Cody is already a better NT than Wilfork and Cody has not played a down of pro football.

Them's fightn' words round these parts. That said, I understand where you're coming from. Playing Mayo at WLB should allow him to do other things than play damage control and make 10 tackles 5-8 yards down the field.

Whether Cody is better right now than Wilfork at playing nose is hardly clear to me, although I think the potential is there. Vince is playing GREAT right now.

Would I take a first for Wilfork (and take McLain) knowing that I'd get Cody (presumably late first)? Probably, especially if the cap is going to continue in 2010/2011.

mayoclinic · Dec 25, 2009

Ochmed Jones said:
Cody is already a better NT than Wilfork and Cody has not played a down of pro football.

Ochmed, I have tremendous respect for your draft acumen, but a statement like that is just ridiculous. 3-4 NT is a very challenging position to learn. To say that any college prospect is already better than one of the top 5 NT's in the game seems absurd.

I do agree with you to a certain extent, but because of size, not ability. McClain has done extremely well this season "hiding" behind the 6'5" 365# Cody. It's hard for a 6'4" 255# guy to "hide", unless you have someone in front the size of Cody, Ted Washington, or Terdell Sands. Wilfork is big but not that size, and much shorter at 6'1". I do worry a bit that McClain might not be as effective behind Wilfork in the pros as he has been in college behind Cody.

If the FO agreed with you, then they should franchise Wilfork, trade him to Denver for #10-12 (McDaniels would probably go for a proven pro bowl player that he knows over an unproven draft pick, no matter how talented), draft McClain with the pick from Denver, and draft Cody with the Pats' own first round pick. They could then draft pass rushers and OL with their 2nd round picks. Not a bad option if it seems that the cost of keeping Wilfork may be too high, but I would be surprised if Cody can step in and produce from day 1 on the level that Wilfork has been producing for us.

Marqui · Dec 25, 2009

Am I the only one that likes Dan Williams better than Cody? Williams you can keep on the floor for all 3 downs, it's still unclear whether Cody is anything more than a 2-down run stuffer.

mayoclinic · Dec 25, 2009

Marqui said:
Am I the only one that likes Dan Williams better than Cody? Williams you can keep on the floor for all 3 downs, it's still unclear whether Cody is anything more than a 2-down run stuffer.

A lot of people have suggested that Dan Williams will be the #1 NT off the board. Ochmed isn't one of them.

jsull87 · Dec 25, 2009

just a question. Is this allowed? say we would prefer the 2nd option but also be happy with the 1st. so we wait but just before our pick spiller is picked and also mclain is picked at say 11/12. can we then trade our pick and 45 for mclain to the person who has already picked them?

SidelineSid · Dec 25, 2009

mayoclinic said:
I would like to see us come away with at least one blue chip prospect plus 3-4 red chip prospects. Because there is so much depth in this draft, red chip prospects will probably go out to about 75 or so, maybe more. Also, because there is so much depth at certain positions with relatively little sepration among the top prospects (including OG and DE/OLB), I'd rather see us take those positions in the 2nd round than use up our first round pick on them. I like Mike Iupati, but I'm not sure I like him any better than Gabe Carimi or Vladimir Ducasse, for example. I like Greg Romeus, but I also like Greg Hardy, Jason Pierre-Paul, Austen Lane and Jeremy Beal.

The blue chip guys that I could see us targeting (with or without a tradeup) include:

1. ILB Rolando McClain. He could go top 10, but I'm guessing he slips back a bit to the 10-20 range because of his position and lack of top-end speed. If he's still available within 10 picks of where we are scheduled to pick, I hope we trade up for him. He's the only guy I would trade up for. The guy has been playing in a system similar to ours. He seems like a guy that should be best suited to make the switch to our system. More importantly, this guy could play the strong side inside linebacker position. This could free up Mayo to make a bunch of plays. He may be misused where he is. Then again, who do we have to do what he does.

2. CB Joe Haden. Not a need unless we don't re-sign or replace Leigh Bodden, in which case CB is a definite need. Haden and Butler would be a heck of a CB tandem. Probably 10-15 pick. Few corners come in day one and play at elite level. I think it took the Jets' Revis 10 weeks to really take his game to a high level. Not many players can do that. I like the kids' athletic ability. I know this is going to be controversial, but with the kind of pressure that Florida puts on opposing offensive lines, he usually isn't asked to cover guys for that long. The Alabama game was an exception, but I don't think that Alabama's receivers are NFL caliber at this time. Julio Jones may develop into one, but not now. If he falls, so be it. If now, oh well.

3. DE Cameron Heyward. May not come out, but I think he could be another Seymour at the 5-technique, which is a position of need. Could go anywhere from around 12 to the early 2nd round. You're starting to convince me. I really want to see how he performs in his bowl game. I'll definitely keep an eye on this kid.

4. RB CJ Spiller. His upside, as BillBelichickFan79 put it, is Chris Johnson with better receiving and return ability. His downside is a 3rd down back and STer, but if you believe his upside he is worth a 1st round pick if he slides to the early 20's. The kid can move. It's his build that concerns me. Every person is different. I know that his height and weight are comparable to Johnson's, but the distribution seems different. Spiller looks a little leaner than Johnson. I think you're right about him having a future about a third down back and special teamer. If he falls to our last second round selection, we should take a chance, not before: we have too many needs.

If no blue chip prospect is available (or a trade doesn't work out), then I could see the Pats moving back in the 1st round or out of it altogether, since there's not a lot to separate all of the red chip prospects.

If Jerry Hughes and Brandon Graham are not available, then we should definitely consider trading down. If we move to the bottom of the first round, or top of the second, we could easily grab Iupati or one of the Pouncey brothers. More importantly, we just might be able to pick up a draft choice or two.

IcyPatriot · Dec 25, 2009

We will trade the Raiders 2011 pick for a 1st rounder this year.

We will trade our own 1st round pick for future picks

... Belichick will be picking in the 8 -15 range this year.

ctpatsfan77 · Dec 25, 2009

jsull87 said:
just a question. Is this allowed? say we would prefer the 2nd option but also be happy with the 1st. so we wait but just before our pick spiller is picked and also mclain is picked at say 11/12. can we then trade our pick and 45 for mclain to the person who has already picked them?

The short answer is "yes," although the niceties of the rookie salary cap make that somewhat difficult.

Box_O_Rocks · Dec 25, 2009

I wouldn't use McClain inside, use him in Vrabel's old slot alongside Warren. He may need some development in the new slot, but that's not a new thing for NE. He's already versed in engaging blockers to play the run and dropping into coverage, what he doesn't know about rushing the passer off the edge will come.

More than another NT, Mayo and Guyton need to read the offense faster and be more aggressive getting into their gaps and engaging blockers before they can clear the LOS - Mayo more so than Guyton. Both are still reacting like 4-3 LBs, seeking to flow and scrape. McKenzie will probably be more of the same.

Wilfork is getting franchised, if only to control where he goes. Whether he gets traded to a KC or Denver who is willing to pay him more than NE is another thing, but I truly believe NE is not going to put together any major contracts until they see where things go with the CBA talks and can plan for the new constraints. I seriously doubt BB does any trading up in round one, I wouldn't be surprised to see him trade out of it again to increase the talent pool and keep individual player costs down.

Ochmed Jones · Dec 26, 2009

Box_O_Rocks said:
I wouldn't use McClain inside, use him in Vrabel's old slot alongside Warren. He may need some development in the new slot, but that's not a new thing for NE. He's already versed in engaging blockers to play the run and dropping into coverage, what he doesn't know about rushing the passer off the edge will come.

Playing McClain at OLB is a very intriguing idea with lots of upside. In the Alabama-Carolina game,Saban actually lined McClain up at OLB on obvious passing plays and had him rush the passer for two series. And while McClain put great pressure on the Carolina in the first series QB, Spurrier countered with hitting the TE and backs on routes that McClain would have covered if he was not rushing. All that being said however; moving McClain outside in our defense is an option, McClain has the strength to set the edge, the speed to cover and the smarts to carry out his assignments.

cstjohn17 · Dec 26, 2009

Ochmed Jones said:
Playing McClain at OLB is a very intriguing idea with lots of upside. In the Alabama-Carolina game,Saban actually lined McClain up at OLB on obvious passing plays and had him rush the passer for two series. And while McClain put great pressure on the Carolina in the first series QB, Spurrier countered with hitting the TE and backs on routes that McClain would have covered if he was not rushing. All that being said however; moving McClain outside in our defense is an option, McClain has the strength to set the edge, the speed to cover and the smarts to carry out his assignments.

I am sure he is not as popular as McClain (for good reason), but a poor mans version is Brandon Spikes. He has been lined up at multiple spots including DE in pass rushing situations. I think he could play any of the LB spots in the 4-3 and play all three downs, maybe he won't be a probowl player but should be consistent. I would rather have McClain but he looks to be a top 10 pick.

Ochmed Jones · Dec 26, 2009

Box_O_Rocks said:
More than another NT, Mayo and Guyton need to read the offense faster and be more aggressive getting into their gaps and engaging blockers before they can clear the LOS - Mayo more so than Guyton. Both are still reacting like 4-3 LBs, seeking to flow and scrape. McKenzie will probably be more of the same.

I could not agree more. As I have said many times before, Mayo does not make big plays, and maybe a ton of the reason has to do with him playing out of position. In my mind he should be in the old Bruschi weak side spot; playing alongside a McClain or Thomas type ILB. And Guyton,I know a lot of people here like him, but in my mind,he is a back up to Mayo and that is it.

I know it is hard for second year players to know how opposing offenses are attacking them, it took Bruschi three years on the bench before he figured it out. But I think instincts also play a part in the read and react defense that we play and right now,I see little from Guyton as far as instinct goes. Mayo has great instincts, but has to take on 300 plus pound lineman first,which makes him look a little slow to react.

Ochmed Jones · Dec 26, 2009

cstjohn17 said:
I am sure he is not as popular as McClain (for good reason), but a poor mans version is Brandon Spikes. He has been lined up at multiple spots including DE in pass rushing situations. I think he could play any of the LB spots in the 4-3 and play all three downs, maybe he won't be a probowl player but should be consistent. I would rather have McClain but he looks to be a top 10 pick.

In my opinion Spikes is clearly a 4-3 MLB. He would be mauled if he had to take on pulling OGs and TE on a regular basis. When he did have to take on OL guys in college (like in the Alabama game for instance), he got beat up. However I saw a lot of Spikes; as we did a bunch of Florida games this year; and I will say this about the kid.

He is fast and has excellent instincts. Probably faster than McClain.

He plays much lower than McClain and if I have had to pick a wart with McClain it is that he plays very high.

He played behind a weak and smallish pair of DT's and did a lot of great work covering up for their mistakes and inadequacies.

In my mind Spikes probably projects as just as good a Weakside ILB in our 3-4 as Mayo. But because we have Mayo, I think Spikes is a redundancy.

He has tons of big game experience and I know BB loves to draft kids early with big game experience.

Ochmed Jones · Dec 26, 2009

Box_O_Rocks said:
Wilfork is getting franchised, if only to control where he goes. Whether he gets traded to a KC or Denver who is willing to pay him more than NE is another thing, but I truly believe NE is not going to put together any major contracts until they see where things go with the CBA talks and can plan for the new constraints. I seriously doubt BB does any trading up in round one, I wouldn't be surprised to see him trade out of it again to increase the talent pool and keep individual player costs down.

You are probably right, BB will probably franchise Wilfork so he can control his future. The franchise tag usually becomes a weapon against a player and it seems more and more franchise tag players resent the tag and from that standpoint relationships with the team get hurt because of it. It is almost a last resort tactic and BB has not had a lot of success working out long term deals when he has used it.

At the end of the day however, Miami has a huge hole at NT and Parcells is not shy about doing whatever it takes to get the players he needs and Wilfork calls Miami home. Round hole-round peg syndrome. If we franchise Wilfork and Parcells signs him, great, I would gladly take the two first rounders and leave day one of the 2010 draft with McClain and Mount Cody plus maybe even a pass rusher/ST player trainee.

SidelineSid · Dec 26, 2009

Ochmed Jones said:
In my opinion Spikes is clearly a 4-3 MLB. He would be mauled if he had to take on pulling OGs and TE on a regular basis. When he did have to take on OL guys in college (like in the Alabama game for instance), he got beat up. However I saw a lot of Spikes; as we did a bunch of Florida games this year; and I will say this about the kid.

He is fast and has excellent instincts. Probably faster than McClain.

He plays much lower than McClain and if I have had to pick a wart with McClain it is that he plays very high.

He played behind a weak and smallish pair of DT's and did a lot of great work covering up for their mistakes and inadequacies.

In my mind Spikes probably projects as just as good a Weakside ILB in our 3-4 as Mayo. But because we have Mayo, I think Spikes is a redundancy.

He has tons of big game experience and I know BB loves to draft kids early with big game experience.

You said it. I have nothing against the guy personally, but he's not right for us.

Which Option Would You Prefer?

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