Handicapping every game this weekend...

Detroit -3 over Cleveland
Nice defensive effort on Monday night for Browns. Team still not good enough to win at fearsome Ford Field six days later. Michigan puts one over Ohio.

Jacksonville -9 over Buffalo
Somewhat of a similar spot for the Bills as last week at Tennessee, and you know how that turned out. Who gets fired this week?

Kansas City +10 over Pittsburgh
I think this is wrong even as I type it, but this isn't a spot where I expect to see the Steeler's A-game. Obviously their D-game should be enough to beat KC's Unshine band, but they MIGHT get themselves in a lazy hole early.

Baltimore +1 over Sindy
The Colts will get upset when their uniforms get - gasp! - rain, mud and grass-stains on them, and never recover their poise. (Not so funny if Baltimore don't have a grass field, but I can't be bothered to check).

NYG -6.5 over Atlanta
An informant in the Falcons front office tells me Matt Ryan is only rated 'probable' with severe razor burn after a recent TV commercial shoot, likely to be hampered even if he plays.

Washington -11 over Dallas
The hapless 'Skins don't get blown out much. Cowboys best chance to cover 11 may be to add to the low-flying scoreboard and sun-in-your-eyes picture window with a shark tank in their endzone. Jerry Jones is lobbying the NFL Rules Committee for permission.

Tampa Bay -11.5 over New Orleans
Basing this pick on the obvious fact that if a bunch of real Buccaneers met a bunch of real saints, they would slaughter them with their cutlasses. Sometimes it pays to think outside the box.

St Louis +9 over Arizona
Cards are better at laying eggs than [insert name of a famous chicken]. Not a confident pick - I can't even think of a famous chicken by myself.

Green Bay -6.5 over San Francisco
A friend tells me it isn't actually all that warm in San Francisco, but I am going to jump on the bandwagon of ridiculous sports-media cliches: 49ers lose this game because they will struggle handling the ball with woolly mittens and scarves on.

Minnesota -11 over Seattle
Vikings didn't beat Lions by much more than 11, and Seattle will probably throw with some success. However, Matt Hasselbeck is still struggling with emotional issues after the Republicans lost the White House and therefore tends to fade late in the game. Superbowl-bound Vikings capitalise on the under-rated "political trauma" handicapping angle.

New England -10.5 over New Jersey Jets
I went on about how over-rated the Jets were while they were sitting at 3-0. Forgive me my schadenfraude. Ryan's team are better at 'big-mouth' than 'smash-mouth', chalk up a blowout for the taciturn New England machine.

Oakland +9.5 over Cincinnatti
In all seriousness, I am typing all this under the influence of Vicodin (broken collarbone, not expected to return). Still, this is a let-down game for Bengals and for anyone who has to watch it.

Denver +3 over San Diego
League-low yards-per-carry for Chargers doesn't bode well at Mile High. They will throw, throw and throw some more, which could turn into a handy pick or two for a hungry Denver squad. And if Chris Simms does QB for the Broncos - how do you defend against a left-handed quarterback? I've never played football, but that must be almost impossible, right?

Philadelphia -3 over Chicago
Jay Cutler comes from a town called Santa Claus, no wonder he keeps handing gifts to defensive backs. (I don't suppose I'm the first person to say that).

Tennessee +4.5 over Houston
Truly consider this the hardest game to call of the entire weekend, so I went with reverse alphabetical order. There are worse ways to break a tie - such as the current NFL overtime rules.

If these don't go 15-0 I'll shrug and get on with my life.

New England -10.5 over New Jersey Jets
I went on about how over-rated the Jets were while they were sitting at 3-0. Forgive me my schadenfraude. Ryan's team are better at 'big-mouth' than 'smash-mouth', chalk up a blowout for the taciturn New England machine

Like I said beginning of this week Pats 41-17, Hammer last nail!


NYG -6.5 over Atlanta
An informant in the Falcons front office tells me Matt Ryan is only rated 'probable' with severe razor burn after a recent TV commercial shoot, likely to be hampered even if he plays.

I see Giants Slammin Falcons. WFAN & papers saying this game is their do or die for season. Plus with Dallas, Eagles losing last week their gonna come out fired up. Giants get Ross back someone else as well. But still is Eli factor which one is goint to show up.

oooops! LB Antonio Pierce OUT neck injury. Better than shooting himself in his leg I guess.

If Tampa Bay and Washington are giving away eleven or more points, then I'm putting everything I got on Dallas plus another 11 points, and the Saints plus another 11.5 points.

UPSET SPECIAL OF THE WEEK.....

Seattle Seahawks 27
Minnesota Vikings 23

Yes in this game Favre has a rare bad day in 2009 and a few INTs for the Hawks defense....Don't know why I think this,but something tells me its a good hunch bet,at least take the points if anything

Divisional matchups tend to be closer games that the form suggests.

I wouldn't call the Broncos vs Chargers, Titans vs Texans.

And I certainly wouldn't be predicting the spread in either Patriots vs Jets or Cowboys vs Redskins.

I'd hope the Patriots win it easily of course but predicting winning margins in divisional games is a sure way to go bust.

7-7 with one game left.

If it wasn't clear, this was meant to be a bit of fun. I do actually handicap seriously (and am having a very good season) but obviously wouldn't be betting every game on a weekend.

jmt57 said:

If Tampa Bay and Washington are giving away eleven or more points, then I'm putting everything I got on Dallas plus another 11 points, and the Saints plus another 11.5 points.

Click to expand...

Typoes on my part. Obviously, Tampa and Washington were GETTING eleven points.

Anyone can beat the bookmaker by simply waiting until Week 6-8 (for a decent sample size), and following the yards per point formula the rest of the season. The trick is doing the math correctly.

But YPP is consistenly 55% on all games, and closer to 58-59% on the games that deviate furthest from the point spread. No one ever talks about it because if they did, everyone would use it.

You figure an approximate score via YPP for each team (-1.5 for visitor, +1.5 for home), then make very slight (+1/-1) adjustments for momentum and injuries, and it virtually gives you the strongest picks each week.

Never bet by "feel." Never load up on one game.