Pats Looking Good For Playoffs

PATSYLICIOUS · Oct 12, 2009

Spiral said:
Ahhh. 2007 seems like a long time ago. For Red Sox fans, too.

And that may be a good thing. In '07 we come out killing everybody and towards the end the Chargers and Giants shut down our pass game.

I think this season so far resembles the early part of 2003 alot. Got some ugly wins, ugly losses, lots of new pieces added and a new team trying to find itself on both sides of the ball. At this point we really didn't know what we had. Hopefully it ends like 2003 too.

Garbanza · Oct 12, 2009

captadamnj said:
Week 5 of Sunday NFL football in the books (still got tonite's game). Trying to get something positive to look forward to, so thought I'd break down the current AFC standings (teams listed in current order of standings) to see where we stand. A "brutal" schedule of having to play the South divisions in each conference is now shaping up to be more of a scheduling boon than any of us could have hoped for. Let's hope the Pats use it to their advantage. (I like the defense, and despite loosing 2nd half leads, the D has had little help from the O in the 2nd half of the two losses. The O improves through the year as Brady and the receivers improve whatever it is that isn't working like we've seen in the past.)

Here's where things stand right now, half the conference essentially in the playoff picture (more complete breakdowns below) based on current record and schedule the rest of the way.

DEN (5-0, leads IND on strength of victory)
IND (5-0)
CIN (4-1)
NYJ (3-1)
PIT (3-2)
BAL (3-2)
NWE (3-2)
SD (2-2)

My feeling is that of the above 8, two of the teams from the AFC North will wind up with lesser records than the Pats (as well as all teams not currently listed). I'm looking for a division championship, but if not, then I like our odds in a 3+ team wild card race based on the fact that the North is going to beat each other up affecting their overall conference record.

Pass the kool-aid, here's to the playoffs and beyond!

East -
Jets (3-1) - Chance at 12-4. Penciling in losses on the road to Pats and Colts, plus a loss in one of the Miami games or, based on current records, tough home games against Falcons (although a cold weather game for a dome team from the south) and the Bengals.
Pats (3-2) - At least as good a chance or better than the Jets to be 12-4. Toughest games will be home for the Jets (but we just pencil in that as a W, right?!), at the Colts and at the Saints. Other games all should be favored in.
Dolphins (2-2) - Hard time finding 10 wins on their schedule with 2 games still against both the Jets and Pats along with games against the Saints and Steelers.
Bills (1-4) - TO who?

Jets and Pats in playoffs. At 12-4 (or better), I like us as Division champs either straight up or in a tie-breaker with the Jets on division record (5-1 vs 4-2 as Jets lose to Pats and one to Miami).

North -
Bengals (4-1) - On tap for 10-11 wins, but the Bengals? THE BENGALS?!? 3 quality wins by a total of 9 points. I don't see their luck holding up all season with games against Baltimore, @ Pitt, @ Minn, @ SD, @ NYJ. At least 3 losses there, plus at least another loss or two somewhere because they are still the Bungles. I think.
Ravens (3-2) - 8-8 isn't out of the realm of possibility. @ Minn, Denver, @ Cin, Indy, Pitt, @ GB, @ Pitt could all come up as an "L" leaving them sub-500.
Steelers (3-2) - Still likely the class of the division with 11+ wins possible if they keep the running game going, Ben upright and find a way to win the close road games they've lost so far this season. Minn, @ Den, Cinn, GB and a pair against the Ravens look like toughest games, but 4 of those games are at home.
Browns (1-4) - Punter was their best player on the field yesterday. QB's stats made Jamarcus Russell stats look good. Who will be gone first, their coach or their heralded first round QB?

I like the Steelers for the division. Cinn and Bal could challenge, or in running for Wild Card. If we have to compete for Wild Card, we already have the head-to-head tie breaker of Bal and these teams will all beat up each other for conference record tie-break.

South -
Colts (5-0) - Hate to admit it, but the only thing holding this team back from 13 wins right now is that they may have the division wrapped up by T-giving. Home games against the Pats, Broncos and Jets. We know they'll lose at least one of those (). @ Texans and @ Jags in division games.
Jaguars (2-3) - Hard time finding 10 wins, and maybe another battle for .500. @ Jets, @ 49ers, Colts, @ Pats. They might look like world beaters, however, after next week's game at home against the Rams.
Texans (2-3) - See also - Jags, only harder schedule. @ Cinn, @ SF, Pats, a pair against the Colts.
Titans (0-5) - NFL = Not For Long (until we see VY?)

Colts as division winners.

West -
Broncos (5-0) - Going with 11-5, but neither 12 wins nor 10 (or less) would surprise me. @ Bal, Pitt, NYG, @ PHI, @ IND, plus a pair with SD.
Chargers (2-2) - Going with 11-5 also. @ NYG, PHI, Cinn, a pair with DEN = 3 losses.
Raiders (1-4) - You just have to feel for Seymour. Turns out, however, that his coach may be a harder hitter than he is.
Chiefs (0-5) - At least Pioli, Cassel and Vrabel have each other to comfort.

Broncos and Chargers both worth mentioning for playoffs right now, with Den leading the division champ race right now. If we have to go the Wild Card route in a 3 (or more) horse race, let's hope Den definitely wins the West since we're already behind the 8-ball on head-head and conference record.

Ah, homerism at its best!!

With the way the team has looked thus far, I will eat my shorts if the Pats managed a victory in Indy or New Orleans. The other games will be struggles - and I am talking about home games. I have no idea how we will fare on the road...but it 'aint looking good so far.

klinefan · Oct 12, 2009

Playoffs?!?

You want to talk PLAYOFFS??!??

If they don't improve they'd just get bounced out in the first round anyway.

There's still a shot they can but look at Indy, that team is a juggernaut.

supafly · Oct 12, 2009

Garbanza said:
Ah, homerism at its best!!

With the way the team has looked thus far, I will eat my shorts if the Pats managed a victory in Indy or New Orleans. The other games will be struggles - and I am talking about home games. I have no idea how we will fare on the road...but it 'aint looking good so far.

When responsing to the 'official prediction' thread, I predicted that we'd lose the following :

one at home
one in the division
one on the road
one we expected to win

with the obvious abilty to overlap of course, I hope the DEN game was the one we expected to win

I agree that it seems pretty likely that we lose on the road either to IND or NEW ORL, if not both

This team needs to make some changes if it wants to be considered one of the league's elite teams again

ClosingTime · Oct 12, 2009

Shrekk said:
I have to disagree with your assessment of pittsburgh, they are not the smash mouth defense of yesteryear. **** Lebeau not being there has had an effect. Pittsburgh has 6 games left that are certainly losable, they have minnesota, denver, baltimore twice, cincinati, and green bay. and the season finale against miami is no guarantee. I would not be surprised to see pittsburgh miss the playoffs. its a 3 horse race in the north i think the team that comes in 3rd misses the playoffs and the 2nd place team gets the 6th seed.

Um... where did **** Lebeau go?

bostonia3333 · Oct 12, 2009

I'm sure alot of haters are out there saying we should be 0-5. I actually believe them and feel fortunate that the Pats are 3-2. That ATL game was a very close game, much closer than the final score indicated. With the passive defense and poor playing calling and execution, I have no idea how this team is 3-2.

supafly · Oct 12, 2009

ClosingTime said:
Um... where did **** Lebeau go?

He's been wearing the 'invisibility cloak,' as the defense hasn't looked the same without Polamalu. The offense is looking quite good as of late, however.
Not sure how those guys get open so much, but it sure seems as though either Holmes, Ward, or the big TE are always wide open--sometimes it's ridiculous. Their running game has been much improved too, and I certainly expect them to make the playoffs. One, their stud safety is back, two, their schedule is crazy easy--of those games that were quoted, they'll most likely only lose 2-3 at best. That's just another guess of course, but I certainly don't feel that they'll miss the playoffs. If we're banking on that, we're in trouble.

Jimke · Oct 12, 2009

Garbanza said:
Ah, homerism at its best!!

With the way the team has looked thus far, I will eat my shorts if the Pats managed a victory in Indy or New Orleans. The other games will be struggles - and I am talking about home games. I have no idea how we will fare on the road...but it 'aint looking good so far.

You are correct when you say every game will be a struggle. The

Patriots had to get an assist from the kick returner to beat a weak

Buffalo team. In addition to the teams you mention above, the

Dolphins usually beat us one time. Houston has a quarterback good

enough to benefit from a weak pass rush and the Titans and Panthers were

13-3 last year and might turn it around for one game.

patsinthesnow · Oct 12, 2009

PATSYLICIOUS said:
And that may be a good thing. In '07 we come out killing everybody and towards the end the Chargers and Giants shut down our pass game.

I think this season so far resembles the early part of 2003 alot. Got some ugly wins, ugly losses, lots of new pieces added and a new team trying to find itself on both sides of the ball. At this point we really didn't know what we had. Hopefully it ends like 2003 too.

I think this season resembles the last 1/4 of 2007 and the playoffs. Remember how the offense cooled down ALOT and there was about 4 close games?

ClosingTime · Oct 12, 2009

supafly said:
He's been wearing the 'invisibility cloak,' as the defense hasn't looked the same without Polamalu. The offense is looking quite good as of late, however.
Not sure how those guys get open so much, but it sure seems as though either Holmes, Ward, or the big TE are always wide open--sometimes it's ridiculous. Their running game has been much improved too, and I certainly expect them to make the playoffs. One, their stud safety is back, two, their schedule is crazy easy--of those games that were quoted, they'll most likely only lose 2-3 at best. That's just another guess of course, but I certainly don't feel that they'll miss the playoffs. If we're banking on that, we're in trouble.

The defense surely isn't the same without Polamalu, though they have been pretty solid for the first 3 quarters of games and then something happens when they have a lead. LB Timmons high ankle sprain has taken away a lot of team speed as well.

It's silly to compare schedules but I think NE has a very easy schedule. The only tough games are the Jets, Indy and Saints. The rest of those teams are horrendous. Jets still have Cincy (yes they are for real with a solid D this year), Indy and Atlanta. Steelers still have games against Denver, Cincy, Minn, GB and two versus the Ravens.

supafly · Oct 12, 2009

ClosingTime said:
The defense surely isn't the same without Polamalu, though they have been pretty solid for the first 3 quarters of games and then something happens when they have a lead. LB Timmons high ankle sprain has taken away a lot of team speed as well.

It's silly to compare schedules but I think NE has a very easy schedule. The only tough games are the Jets, Indy and Saints. The rest of those teams are horrendous. Jets still have Cincy (yes they are for real with a solid D this year), Indy and Atlanta. Steelers still have games against Denver, Cincy, Minn, GB and two versus the Ravens.

I don't know how much I agree about the schedule thing, although I respect your opinion. We still have 4 divisional games remaining, 1 with a team we already lost to, 2 against a MIA team that Brady struggles against, and another at BUF. When you couple that with games AT Indy and New Orl, where it's almost impossible to win, with games against hungry teams like TEN, who isn't at bad as they appear, HOU, CAR, JAX--you may find that one of those 4 teams can beat us also.

I think it's a plus that we have 5 hard games out of the way, and yes, I am including the opener because it has a bit of mystique, etc becasue teams' are pumped up for the season and stand at 0-0.

The stats and schedule strength prove, however, that NE has the 3rd hardest schedule, while PIT has the 2nd easiest.

ClosingTime · Oct 12, 2009

supafly said:
I don't know how much I agree about the schedule thing, although I respect your opinion. We still have 4 divisional games remaining, 1 with a team we already lost to, 2 against a MIA team that Brady struggles against, and another at BUF. When you couple that with games AT Indy and New Orl, where it's almost impossible to win, with games against hungry teams like TEN, who isn't at bad as they appear, HOU, CAR, JAX--you may find that one of those 4 teams can beat us also.

I think it's a plus that we have 5 hard games out of the way, and yes, I am including the opener because it has a bit of mystique, etc becasue teams' are pumped up for the season and stand at 0-0.

The stats and schedule strength prove, however, that NE has the 3rd hardest schedule, while PIT has the 2nd easiest.

I think Miami stinks. Buffalo lost to the Browns at Home. Tennessee's secondary has fallen apart. If they do start Vince Young then they have given up on the season.

Strength of schedule is a worthless stat as it is based on last season. Miami, a division-winner last year stinks this year. Cincy, who stunk last year, is good this year. Denver, who was average this year, is undefeated. Tennessee counts as a difficult game on the strength of schedule yet they are winless.

Jets still have more difficult games left and I have full confidence that the Jets will lose at least one game that they should win thanks to a rookie QB.

But to the point of the original poster, there is no way the South will have a wildcard contender. I seriously doubt San Diego will be in the wildcard mix as their D is horrible and will not get better this year without Jamal Williams.

I realize it is way early but that leaves Cincy, Steelers, Jets, NE and Ravens battling for four playoff spots. When was the last time one division had both wildcard spots? Almost impossible to happen.

carolinatony · Oct 12, 2009

We need Denver to win the west over the Chargers so they are not fighting with us for a wildcard.
We need the Ravens to finsh 2nd behind either Pitts/Bengals so we can beat them in a tiebreaker. Don't know if they can.
We must beat the Rats and IMO if we beat Indy and sweep the Fish win the division and a bye. We can afford to lose @ NO.

If the O gets it on we ae good.

Look at the last 4 games we play.
Carolina stinks. I see them every week
Buffalo -no comment
Jacksonville and Houston are not very good.

The Rats play,Tampa,Bengals,Indy and Falcons. I see 2 loses.

captadamnj · Oct 27, 2009

Two more weeks in the books.

DEN (6-0)
IND (6-0)
CIN (5-2)
PIT (5-2)
NWE (5-2)
NYJ (4-3)
HOU (4-3)
BAL (3-3)
JAC (3-3)
SD (3-3)

Having included 8 teams in the initial post, in doing so, wound up with 2 more for this update since a 3-way tie based on record for 8th in the conference right now. Even after 2 straight wins by the Bills and some good showings by the Fish, I don't see any of the 6 conference teams not listed above being a factor other than playing spoiler come December.

Definitely have the Jets sliding right now. Defenses now have some Sanchez tape, and offenses have some tape of the D. Major loss on D with Jenkins to IR and on O/ST with the loss of Washington for the year. Division is now the Pats to lose.

Despite CIN still leading PIT based on the divisional tie breaker, PIT has the momentum and the Bengals are still the Bengals. The return of Polamalu has definitely helped the PIT D. That said, PIT was one "right through his hands" from seeing the game tied (or falling behind). Kudos to the D for making a big play when they had the chance. A "black and blue" division, standing by the initial analysis.

The South remains the Colts to lose. Texans get a couple of wins, but still have a very tough schedule. If the Jags get a couple more wins like they could they will get some media time with 3 wins in a row. But I wouldn't doubt the Titans getting their first win this week. The South has been a lot like the East this decade, some average-above average teams that are constantly playing 2nd fiddle to the division leading juggernaut.

In the West, Denver has now created some separation for themselves from SD within the division.

Synovia · Oct 27, 2009

ClosingTime said:
I think Miami stinks.

The same Miami team that should have beat both Indy and New Orleans?

I think the Pats beat them, but I think its a tough game.

Synovia · Oct 27, 2009

ClosingTime said:
I realize it is way early but that leaves Cincy, Steelers, Jets, NE and Ravens battling for four playoff spots. When was the last time one division had both wildcard spots? Almost impossible to happen.

2007. The two wildcards in the NFC were the Giants and Redskins. It happens every couple of years.

Jimke · Oct 27, 2009

The next 5 weeks tell the story.

Dolphins

@ Colts

Jets

@ Saints

@ Dolphins

The Patriots need to win the Jets game plus 2 others.

Kontradiction · Oct 27, 2009

Good thread to bump. I want to take it step further and bracket it, if you will...

1. Denver (6-0)
2. Indianapolis (6-0)
3. New England (5-2)
4. Cinncinnati (5-2)

5. Pittsburgh (5-2)
6. NYJ (4-3)

So, as of today we would be taking the division and would be opening up in the Wild Card round at home against Jesters, considering they own a tiebreaker having shut out Houston in Week 1. The thing that confused me is who would own a tiebreaker between us and the Bengals so far considering that both the Pats and the Bengals lost to Denver and both beat Baltimore. So, for arguments sake, I put us ahead of the Bengals.

That said, Denver looks strong so far this season, but is in for a rough stretch from this coming weekend on. This Sunday, they travel to Baltimore to play the Ravens in what could be a tough game for them (very loseable). The very next week they host Pittsburgh, who has generally been successful in Denver and looks to be back on track with Polamalu back in the line-up. In Weeks 11 and 12, they play the division rival Chargers, which will be a tough game everything considered, and the Giants back to back. Both very loseable games for the Broncos, especially if the Giants can get off the schnide. In Week 14, they go to Indy to take on the Colts in a game that could go either way and two weeks later, they go to Philly to play the Eagles. So, you can see that the Broncos have a very rough stretch of schedule in front of them and can fall all the way to the 4th seed in the AFC if they are not careful, which would be beneficial to us.

As for Indy, our chances to move up into the top seed don't get nearly as lucky with them. They have a three game home stand coming up. On top of that, their schedule is simply a piece of cake. Even easier than our 2008 schedule was, IMO. Indy hosts San Francisco this week. That could be a loss for them, considering they don't know what they are going to see out of Alex Smith and Michael Crabtree and San Fran's defense is pretty good, but I doubt it. I think Indy wins this one by 10. The week after that, they play host to the Houston Texans who could very well beat them, being that they are playing good football right now and are a division rival but, again, that game could go either way and I think Indy takes this one too. The week after, we all know who comes to town. I think we'll be the ones to send Indy to their first loss of the season and we should own a tiebreaker over them after that week should both teams end up tied. After that, they go to Baltimore (who Manning has a good history against even when their defense was top notch), to Houston, and host the Titans. If they lose any of those games, it's either going to be to Baltimore or Houston. Right now, I'll put my money on Houston. After that they host Denver, which could go either way and go to Jacksonville which should be another win for them. They close out the schedule hosting the Jets (which is a wash for us) and going to Buffalo in what could be a throw away game for the Colts. They could very well finish the season with only one or two losses.

Bottom line, I see Denver being the only one of the top two that could fall meaning we would be in either the number one or number two seed if we can manage to get through our November blitzkrieg. Good thread bump. Let's revisit this again in a couple of weeks.

Kontradiction · Oct 27, 2009

Jimke said:
The next 5 weeks tell the story.

Dolphins

@ Colts

Jets

@ Saints

@ Dolphins

The Patriots need to win the Jets game plus 2 others.

I think we'll either sweep this schedule or we'll take 4 out of 5. We have two weeks to prepare for the Wildcat, so the game against the Dolphins in Foxboro should be a win.

borg · Oct 27, 2009

Synovia said:
The same Miami team that should have beat both Indy and New Orleans?

I think the Pats beat them, but I think its a tough game.

The Dolphins defense gave up 73 points combined in those two games...they "should have" given up fewer points

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