Quite Honestly, Why Should Anyone Care if There's a Cap in 2010?
I keep hearing all these stories about how the rich will get richer and the cheap teams will use an uncapped year in 2010 to get financially well. I've seen a list of looming free agents for next spring, and I know the rules of free agency for the year, and I can tell you this: It's a bunch of bunk.
Now I don't know if, say, the Bengals or Rams or Jags will spend to some noncompetitive floor, though any team that spends $70 million on players will get so much public scorn for it that it'd surprise me if even the hard-bitten owners like Mike Brown would slash payroll by 35 or 40 percent. But understand the minimum-service time for unrestricted free agents rises from four to six years in 2010, and understand that each team can use a franchise tag AND transition tag to lock up two potential free agents next year, and understand the top eight teams in the league can't sign a free agent until they lose one of similar value. Now you understand why the prospect of an uncapped year doesn't make general managers league-wide lose much sleep. Or any.
The Steelers could be hurt the most in free agency next year, with defensive end Brett Keisel, underrated free safety Ryan Clark, nose tackle Casey Hampton and running back Willie Parker slated to be free. But suppose Rashard Mendenhall's progress this year makes Parker a luxury, and suppose the team decides that Hampton, at 32 and with a history of weight problems, isn't worth the risk of another contract, particularly with defensive-tackle heir Ziggy Hood already on the team. If they chose, they could put tags on Clark and Keisel, ensuring they wouldn't lose either of their two need players.
Here's a list of the top 20 players I project for free agency next spring. Keep in mind that many of these players will be tagged and never see the free market. (I have kept free-agent-to-be Philip Rivers off the list, because it's next to impossible the Chargers would allow him to leave.)
1. Ryan Clark, FS, Pittsburgh
2. Vince Wilfork, NT, New England
3. Julius Peppers, DE, Carolina
4. Karlos Dansby, LB, Arizona
5. Richard Seymour, DL, New England
6. Brett Keisel, DE, Pittsburgh
7. Aaron Kampman, DE/OLB, Green Bay
8. Casey Hampton, DT, Pittsburgh
9. Willie Parker, RB, Pittsburgh
10. Dunta Robinson, CB, Houston
11. Kevin Walter, WR, Houston
12. Antonio Bryant, WR, Tampa Bay
13. Ryan Pickett, DL, Green Bay
14. Justin Bannan, DL, Baltimore
15. Chad Pennington, QB, Miami
16. Chester Pitts, G, Houston
17. Kassim Osgood, WR/Sp. Teams, San Diego
18. Nate Burleson, WR, Seattle
19. Casey Rabach, C, Washington
20. Sebastian Janikowski, K, Oakland
A couple of notes: Keisel, at 285 pounds an excellent run-playing defensive end, will be highly regarded as a 3-4 end because more teams are playing the scheme. Bryant is low because of his checkered past, but a solid year in Tampa Bay this season could make him fly up the list.
