The Pats are in trouble

PushnPencils · Apr 27, 2009

Although I do somewhat agree the Pats could use some help with the pass rush, alot of their 3rd down issues had to do with crappy downfield coverage.

When opponents went 3 or 4 wide on 3rd down. Someone usually got open fast. (See Ellis Hobbs).

As bad as our pass rush may seem, I always thought our secondary was absolutely atrocious.

So as far as addressing our biggest need....we did ....in a big way.

PJM · Apr 27, 2009

I'd have loved it if they could have drafted the next Tippett but I didn't see anyone like that in this draft. Most of the top pass rushers were conversion projects who would have had to learn the system and could have taken a year+ to contribute. BB also made it clear he did not like the size/speed make up of this class. There is no point bringing in a player the coaches don't believe in just because we have a need at that position.

I think it is only realistic to accept that the pass rush is weaker than last year, although Thomas will hopefully be fit. The secondary is much better (possibly the best it has looked for several years), the DL has more depth and the offense looks more capable of controlling the clock. If they can bring in a veteran pass rusher I will be happier but even without one this defense will be better overall in 2009 than it was in 2008.

patsfaninpittsburgh · Apr 27, 2009

In the arguement of pass rush vs secondary, our opinions are meaningless. BB has decided it is the secondary. That has been addressed.

Having TB back will be the biggest factor since many of those games (San Diego/Jets) would have been victories with TB putting up 40+ points. Extra TOP would have meant the defense is off the field.

Expect our guys to be much healthier.

In the end, we were 10th rated on defense and 8th in points alowed.

Four rookie LB's and two rookie CB's in 2008 and we want to "draft"?

neuronet · Apr 27, 2009

The original post would have much more credibility if there were some data attached. Go get the statistics about third down conversions, compare us to other teams. Do the same for third and short, and third and long. Break it up in an interesting way.

Sure, we all remember the overtime disaster. But what are the actual data here? If you had done such homework, you would have made a thread more worthy of intelligent discussion. It's not too late.

DaBruinz · Apr 27, 2009

iapatsfan said:
I do not believe the Pats addressed their most pressing need whatsoever in this draft or offseason. Last year was so frustrating to watch simply because of how bad they were on 3rd and long. I know I've said this before, but it got to the point where I actually expected teams to convert 3rd and longs on the Pats. I was a lot more surprised when they actually got stops in those situations. Now the Pats (as they are currently made up) go into next season without a proven pass rusher on the roster. Adalius is the only player with double digit sacks in his career, and he's done that 1 time.

I don't care how many DBs they pick up, QBs are going to have all day to pick them apart with the pass rushers they currently have. I think a real good defensive comparison would be the Chargers of last year. Great 3-4 D line and good DBs, but without Merriman, no pass rush. They had the 25th ranked D in the league last year, and were 31st against the pass. Without a husge addition to the pass rush, the Pats are in serious trouble next year.

The Pats D was ranked as follows:
NFL Stats: by Team Category

Overall Defense - Based on yards: 10th.
Scoring - 8th - 19.3
Against the Run - 15th - 1722 yards allowed
Against the Pass - 11th - 3222 yards allowed
3rd down Conversion Rate - 26th at 44.4%
Passing TDs allowed - 31st - 27 allowed

Now, I agree that the Pass Rush wasn't great. It wasn't. But the Pats, when they could rush from all 4 positions, is when they were best. They had a leash on Mayo. They were playing with their 5th OLB starting and 4th ILB starting by the end of the year. Their primary back-ups were rookies. And the 1 veteran they had before Seau and Colvin came back was Vrabel. Who was playing through an injury.

DaBruinz · Apr 27, 2009

iapatsfan said:
Thomas is a good coverage guy, and he does get some pressure now and then, but not consistently.

I believe Crable's career high in sacks at Michigan was 7.5. Nothing to get excited about.

How many players, in Belichick's defense, have gotten double digit sacks?

ONE. Vrabel in 2007. Double digit sacks is NOT the tell tale of a consistent pass rusher.

DaBruinz · Apr 27, 2009

patsfaninpittsburgh said:
In the arguement of pass rush vs secondary, our opinions are meaningless. BB has decided it is the secondary. That has been addressed.

Having TB back will be the biggest factor since many of those games (San Diego/Jets) would have been victories with TB putting up 40+ points. Extra TOP would have meant the defense is off the field.

Expect our guys to be much healthier.

In the end, we were 10th rated on defense and 8th in points alowed.

Four rookie LB's and two rookie CB's in 2008 and we want to "draft"?

I have to disagree that BB decided it was just the secondary. If he truly thought that, he'd not have drafted Crable last year. He'd not have kept Redd and Craig to develop.

From what I see, BB felt they were BOTH issues. However, the LB issue was one of injuries. Woods with a broken Jaw. Thomas with his injury. Vrabel playing hurt. Crable out for the year. When you are having to rely on a street free agent to START for you, you know you've depleted your depth.

The secondary, everyone admitted, was an issue. Starting with the failures of Bryant, O'Neal, and Webster. Compounded by the injury to Wheatley. And, yes, also by the injury to Harrison. Most people had the Patriots bringing in a SS and a CB this year. The fact that Bodden and Springs were both available played into the Patriots favor. Just like in 2007 when the Pats added Welker before the draft and then Moss during the draft. No one could have forseen Moss being available. BB pounced on it because it was unexpected. Just like Bodden and Springs.

RoughingthePasser · Apr 27, 2009

iapatsfan said:
I do not believe the Pats addressed their most pressing need whatsoever in this draft or offseason. Last year was so frustrating to watch simply because of how bad they were on 3rd and long. I know I've said this before, but it got to the point where I actually expected teams to convert 3rd and longs on the Pats. I was a lot more surprised when they actually got stops in those situations. Now the Pats (as they are currently made up) go into next season without a proven pass rusher on the roster. Adalius is the only player with double digit sacks in his career, and he's done that 1 time.

I don't care how many DBs they pick up, QBs are going to have all day to pick them apart with the pass rushers they currently have. I think a real good defensive comparison would be the Chargers of last year. Great 3-4 D line and good DBs, but without Merriman, no pass rush. They had the 25th ranked D in the league last year, and were 31st against the pass. Without a husge addition to the pass rush, the Pats are in serious trouble next year.

Your thread title reveals your negative agenda.
Talk to me in December.
btw. IOWA is lame

mayoclinic · Apr 27, 2009

We are DOOOOMED!!!!

Obviously, BB wasn't concerned enough about the position to make it a priority compared with the secondary. So either he has confidence in the existing personnel (Woods, Crable, Redd and TBC in addition to Thomas) or he has other options up his sleeve. Or both. IBWT. I have to assume that he knows the pass rush was less than optimal last year, and felt that he would do better with the youngsters stepping up than with an aging Mike Vrabel.

Ring 6 · Apr 27, 2009

iapatsfan said:
I said consistently. Thomas has not shown that ability at all. Like I said before, he has 1 season of double digit sacks in his career. He is now at an age when players tend to slow down. I do not expect him to be any type of beast off the edge because he has never been that kind of player.

Crable has shown nothing.

So you prefer one-dimensional players who get 11 sacks to complete players who get 9?
That one sack every 2 months must mean a lot to you

Synovia · Apr 27, 2009

PushnPencils said:
When opponents went 3 or 4 wide on 3rd down. Someone usually got open fast. (See Ellis Hobbs).

You clearly weren't watching the same Patriots as I was. Hobbs wasn't great, but he was the best corner on that team last year.

I don't remember guys getting open fast. I remember the QB meandering around the pocket for 10 seconds, while Mike Vrable flailed innefectually at the RB blocking him, while someone got open.

Ring 6 · Apr 27, 2009

patsfaninpittsburgh said:
In the arguement of pass rush vs secondary, our opinions are meaningless. BB has decided it is the secondary. That has been addressed.

Having TB back will be the biggest factor since many of those games (San Diego/Jets) would have been victories with TB putting up 40+ points. Extra TOP would have meant the defense is off the field.

Expect our guys to be much healthier.

In the end, we were 10th rated on defense and 8th in points alowed.

Four rookie LB's and two rookie CB's in 2008 and we want to "draft"?

I think the trade of Hobbs was the biggest indication of your first statement.
Hobbs has started for us for almost 3 years, and now he isn't capable of playing for us. To get 2 3s which became 1 4 is to say on a day we were trading into next year that we accepted less than what we would have gotten next year as a comp pick if he was a starter all year to draft a guy who will be a project for us.
The message yesterday was we no longer accept the type of corner play we have gotten, and the #1 corner is no longer good enough to make the team, essentially.

By the way, knowing BB this was WAY, WAY more about Wilhite and Wheately than Butler, because he has a year experience with Wilhite and Wheately and wouldn't make such a move based upon a rookie, when at least 1/3 of them end up on IR.

Ring 6 · Apr 27, 2009

Synovia said:
You clearly weren't watching the same Patriots as I was. Hobbs wasn't great, but he was the best corner on that team last year.

I don't remember guys getting open fast. I remember the QB meandering around the pocket for 10 seconds, while Mike Vrable flailed innefectually at the RB blocking him, while someone got open.

I think it was a little of both.
We seem to be revising history as if we were a terrible defensive team ranked 32nd vs the pass. We were a good, above average defense.
All of the issues that everyone wants to weigh in on are not deficiencies that made us wak but the weaker areas of an overall good defense, ie what kept us from being excellent.

mgteich · Apr 27, 2009

Andy makes a great point. We traded Hobbs for less than we would have gotten if he stayed. Hobbs wouldn't have started.

Ring 6 · Apr 27, 2009

mgteich said:
Andy makes a great point. We traded Hobbs for less than we would have gotten if he stayed. Hobbs wouldn't have started.

It doesnt mean he shouldnt have started up until now, and it doesnt mean he was bad.
It means we drafted 2 guys last year that didn't contribute a ton as rookie, but clearly showed better skills than Hobbs possesses, and that we have brought in 2 veterans that are very different type of corners than Hobbs, and just drafted one Saturday as well.

Personally, I think that as the league changes to more of a spread out pass first league that the core philosophies of BB get revisited. For example, he has already moved more toward cover than run support at the safety position. He has placed greater emphasis on the DL here than in any other place he was in the past. He has seemingly become more conservative in calling defensive games. There is no doubt that the NFL and passing games have changed and continue to change. To think that BB is now looking for a 'different kind or corner' than he was in 2006 is not at all unreasonable. I think we end up with 5 corners that none of which resemeble Ellis Hobbs type of game.

LiveShot · Apr 27, 2009

I believe the Pats and Jason Taylor have a deal to be announced just before training camp and BB has more faith in the present line backers, defensive backs than the public.

VJCPatriot · Apr 27, 2009

AndyJohnson said:
There is no doubt that the NFL and passing games have changed and continue to change. To think that BB is now looking for a 'different kind or corner' than he was in 2006 is not at all unreasonable. I think we end up with 5 corners that none of which resemeble Ellis Hobbs type of game.

And that's a good thing. It doesn't take a genius to note the NFL's recent trend towards more passing and bigger, taller wide receivers. Bodden and Springs give us better matchups against the taller receivers. The Pats still covet quick twitch corners, but with Butler they got a corner who is more adept on manning up and iso coverage. Butler's superior athleticism and cover skills means he won't have to give up a 10-15 yard cushion to maintain good coverage, a notable weakness in Hobb's game.

I think that Wilhite was really coming along nicely near the end of last season. So using him or Wheatley as the nickle corner will be a LOT more economical than keeping on a 2.5M nickel in Hobbs. Everything BB has done makes sense, and there will be life after Hobbs. So let's stop the hand wringing, the Pats secondary in 2009 looks like it is going to be a lot better than 2008.

Roland · Apr 27, 2009

iapatsfan said:
I do not believe the Pats addressed their most pressing need whatsoever in this draft or offseason. Last year was so frustrating to watch simply because of how bad they were on 3rd and long. I know I've said this before, but it got to the point where I actually expected teams to convert 3rd and longs on the Pats. I was a lot more surprised when they actually got stops in those situations. Now the Pats (as they are currently made up) go into next season without a proven pass rusher on the roster. Adalius is the only player with double digit sacks in his career, and he's done that 1 time.

I don't care how many DBs they pick up, QBs are going to have all day to pick them apart with the pass rushers they currently have. I think a real good defensive comparison would be the Chargers of last year. Great 3-4 D line and good DBs, but without Merriman, no pass rush. They had the 25th ranked D in the league last year, and were 31st against the pass. Without a husge addition to the pass rush, the Pats are in serious trouble next year.

Dude, you have little to no clue here. The Patriots base defense next year is going to be a version of the 4-3. What the draft tells me is that the Patriots are going to morph into a modern version of the infamous 4-6 defense.

Hobbs was let go because we are going to a press at the line defense with the corners pressing more. Tully is going to be a 3-down linebacker which believe it or not he's not crazy about it. Belichick is also going to make a play to get Ted Washington back for a year.

This defense is going back to a cross between the infamous Ryan defense and what we had in 2001. You heard it here - book it.

IcyPatriot · Apr 27, 2009

Roland said:
Dude, you have little to no clue here. The Patriots base defense next year is going to be a version of the 4-3. What the draft tells me is that the Patriots are going to morph into a modern version of the infamous 4-6 defense.

Hobbs was let go because we are going to a press at the line defense with the corners pressing more. Tully is going to be a 3-down linebacker which believe it or not he's not crazy about it. Belichick is also going to make a play to get Ted Washington back for a year.

This defense is going back to a cross between the infamous Ryan defense and what we had in 2001. You heard it here - book it.

Ted Washington??? That's a wtf'er

The Pats are in trouble

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PJM

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neuronet

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