Risk/Reward Players

An interesting article from Chad Reuter at NFLdraftscout today:

Risk can be great with these players, reward even greater - NFL - CBSSports.com Football

He lists 19 high risk/reward prospects in the draft (and does not include Connor Barwin among them!). 9 are of particular relevance to the Pats including:

- Everette Brown: "Not only is Brown fighting the Florida State defensive-end jinx (Alonzo Jackson, Andre Wadsworth, Reinard Wilson, etc.), but 6-feet-1 or so, 256-pound pass rushers don't often get top 15 consideration. His ability to make plays off the edge (21½ tackles for loss, 13½ sacks in 2008) reminds some of Dwight Freeney, who went to Indianapolis at No. 11 in 2002. Others believe he is more comparable to Jerome McDougle (Philadelphia, No. 15, 2003) and are not sure he can make the switch to outside linebacker." Notes he could go 9-12 but considers best value 19-23.

- Aaron Maybin: "There is no question that Maybin has the closing speed and length to become an effective pass rusher at the next level. His stiff hips, lack of upper body strength and inexperience still make him a work in progress at both defensive end and linebacker. Scouts find players leaving after their redshirt sophomore year especially difficult to project." Notes he could go 9-12 but considers best value at 19-23.

- Clay Matthews: "Teams love his bloodlines (grandfather, Clay Sr., father, Clay Jr., and uncle, Bruce, were NFL veterans) and he tested as well as any linebacker at the combine. At the Southern Cal pro day, Matthews' ability to move in space and catch the ball wowed scouts. Some teams believe he could be the best USC linebacker in this draft, but others are a bit wary of any walk-on one-year starter, even if he comes from USC." Notes he could go 10-15 but puts best value at 23-29.

- Rey Maualuga: "He made some money by running well at his pro day, erasing teams' memory of his hamstrung workout at the combine. And few in college football made bigger hits over the past couple of seasons. But there aren't many inside linebackers taken in the mid-first round, especially when teams have concerns about their character, instincts and ability to be a three-down player." Considers that he could go 12-16 but puts his best value at 23-27.

- Robert Ayers: "Ayers really came on as a senior after earning All-SEC honors and holding his own against OT Michael Oher at the Senior Bowl. The fact he was only marginally productive before 2008 reminds scouts of former Vikings first-round pick Erasmus James (minus the injury history)." Thinks he may go as early as 9-13 but sets his best value at 25-32.

- Jarron Gilbert: "Watching a 6-5, 288-pound football player jump out of a pool from a standing position is pretty amazing, but his athleticism did not always show up on the field. Gilbert was productive, however, making 22 tackles for loss and 9½ sacks in 2008 in his third year as a starter. If he continues to improve his functional strength and consistency, he might be a fine 3-4 defensive end for years to come." Suggests he could go as high as late 1st round but sets his best value at a last 2nd rounder.

- Louis Delmas: "A very aggressive run defender with above-average athleticism, Delmas has the potential to be a Pro Bowl-caliber safety. However, his propensity to be over-aggressive in coverage and his lack of strength and questionable instincts might keep him from hitting his ceiling." Predicts he could go as early as 23-25, but best value at early-mid 2nd.

- Sean Smith: "A former receiver, the 6-3 5/8, 214-pound Smith's size and ball skills are formidable. He's still learning the corner position, however, and is not strong enough or a secure enough tackler at this point to contribute as a safety. Nobody really knows whether he could be the next Nnamdi Asomugha or Mike Rumph." Predicts he could go as early as 23-32, but sets best value at mid-late 2nd round.

- William Moore: "Although the perception is players help themselves by returning for their senior year, Moore is an example of the opposite. He showed range and the ability to pound ball carriers as a junior, but could not make many plays in 2008 and looked like a linebacker in coverage at the Senior Bowl, partially due to nagging injuries. If healthy and focused, a team might get the junior-year version of Moore. His solid combine performance might have wrapped up an early second-round slot." Predicts he could go early 2nd round but considers best value mid-late 2nd round.

- Vontae Davis: "Teams are not impressed with Davis' maturity or ability to take hard coaching. His brother Vernon's somewhat slow progression as a tight end in San Francisco following stellar workouts that shot him up to No. 6 overall in 2006 did not help his cause, either. Still, Vontae Davis' excellent athleticism and willingness to play physically could entice a team to select him in the top 20." Predicts he could go 14-18 but sets his best value at 25-32.

Others include BJ Raji, Percy Harvin, Darius Heyward-Bey, Michael Oher, Andre Smith and Michael Johnson.

I went through the list of players, and I realized I would be excited with anyone(or more) of the Defensive players... Guess I go by the Al Davis draft book rather than BB. :bricks:

Sometimes it works, sometimes it doesn't. You take your lumps, accept your failure, and move on to creating something workable in its place.

We have 1) a strong team, and 2) an over abundance of draft picks. Why not gamble a little on one of or two of these guys? We could see dramatic dividends if the guy pans out. Nothing ventured, nothing gained, after all.

Fair article - the reality is that there are very few safe picks in any draft. The only first round guy I could truly guarantee NFL success is probably Aaron Curry.

BB has a very impressive record of hits in the first round with us thus far.

I think he stays conservative in the first round and goes for players with a solid history of production in college; with a passion for the game and that are solid citizens.

Ochmed Jones said:

BB has a very impressive record of hits in the first round with us thus far.

I think he stays conservative in the first round and goes for players with a solid history of production in college; with a passion for the game and that are solid citizens.

Click to expand...

I don't see BB necessarily drafting a "safe" pick over a more talented player, but I think safety would be a factor. If someone like Malcolm Jenkins fell, for example, I think BB would love getting a high character proven performer. He could then "gamble" on risk/reward players like Connor Barwin, William Beatty, Louis Delmas and Jarren Gilbert with subsequent picks. Donald Brown would be another low-risk choice at 23, even though I don't see RB being a focus.

Connor Barwin is a not a risk/reward player at 34 as a TE and STer, who could also potentially be developed into a pro OLB. I might make a different choice, but the value is there.

I think Pat's coaching staff is so good that they automatically lessen the risk factor. The Pat's will bring a player in that they feel very strongly can handle specific needs within system. They teach that player exactly what the role/function will be and how it affects the other 10 team-mates. Other clubs tend to draft an athlete and simply let them find their way within that system. Expectations that require time. Trust in our coaches-they are usually right in the coaching area.